jim spohrer return to nbic(s)2 20120626 v2

© 2012 IBM Corporation

IBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM Upward)

Return to the Planet of the NBIC(S) 2.0

Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer, [email protected] Champion and Director IBM UPward(University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development)

Workshop on NBIC(S)2 – Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno-(Social)-2Washington DC, USA, Tue June 26, 2012

Egypt-Japan University of Science & Technology

IBM Centennial Icon of Progress

Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno

OF THE NBIC(S) 2.0

mailto:[email protected]

2 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)

Today’s Talk

What’s NBIC(S) 2.0?– Return to the Planet of the NBIC(S) 2.0 – “Nib-Iks-Two-Oh”– Why NIBC(S)-2? Why add social?– A Few Slides from NBIC-1 (The lens of “work” – “Z-Theory”)– What has changed in 10 years?

• Social Media & Business (Collaborate)• 3D Printing (Even More Real Now)• Google Glasses (WorldBoard)• Drones (Telerobotics)

What’s next?– Energy 2.0: 30 stories building – robotically built in 10 days, recycled in 10 days– Manufacturing 2.0: Cars built as part of a local recycling service, self driving– Agriculture 2.0: Urban farming and local food – the pendulum swings back– Education 2.0: Universities=living-labs/smarter cities (“knowledge burden”); EdX & TEDx– Life 2.0: CAD for bacteria; Search for life & intelligence out there succeeds– Smart 2.0: SYNAPSE & Watson, SIRI, Wolfram Alpha, etc.

What’s important?– Whole Service Systems (individuals, family, cities, etc.)– Measures: Innovativeness, Equity, Sustainability, Resilience– Policymaking: Balance WTA & IWL policies (global grand challenges, X-Prizes)– Education: T-shaped people


NBIC(S)2

Social

http://www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/1/NBIC_overview.pdf


Why Social? Look What’s New…

IBM title

Google & AppleMicrosoft

LinkedIn

Twitter

WordPress

HP, Oracle, SAP,Facebook,Etc., etc.

Smarter PlanetWatson Jeopardy!

Cloud Computing, AnalyticsService Science Social BusinessCyberSecurity…

5

Accelerating Change 2004

http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

50 Years: Information technology connecting islands of information (created by people) into larger networks

Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance: Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and Cognitive Scienceby Mihail C. Roco (Editor), William Sims Bainbridge (Editor)

0.00E+00

5.00E+16

1.00E+17

1.50E+17

2.00E+17

2.50E+17

3.00E+17

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

transistors

About 10 billion transistors made per second in 2004, doubling each 18 monthsWorldwide Production of Transistors on all ICs (Source: NSF)

Growth rates for:

Nano: Transistors made per second

Bio: Gene sequenced per second, Cell divisions observed per second,fMRI regions scanned per second

Info: Bytes storage made per second

Cogno: Emails per second, IM per second Google searchers per second

6



200 year view: Services dominate

Nation % WW

Labor% A

%G

%S

25 yr %delta S

China 21.0 50 15 35 191

India 17.0 60 17 23 28

U.S. 4.8 3 27 70 21

Indonesia 3.9 45 16 39 35

Brazil 3.0 23 24 53 20

Russia 2.5 12 23 65 38

Japan 2.4 5 25 70 40

Nigeria 2.2 70 10 20 30

Banglad. 2.2 63 11 26 30

Germany 1.4 3 33 64 44

Top Ten Nations by Labor Force Size(about 50% of world labor in just 10 nations)A = Agriculture, G = Goods, S = Services

>50% (S) services, >33% (S) services

2004 2004United States

The largest labor force migrationin human history is underway,

driven by urbanization, global communications,

low cost labor, business growthand technology innovation.

(A) Agriculture:Value from

harvesting nature(G) Goods:

Value from making products

(S) Services:Value from enhancing the

capabilities of things (customizing, distributing, etc.) and interactions between things

7



Towards facilitated coevolution of capabilities… (an hypothesis)

Collaborate(incentives)

Augment(tool)

Automate(self-service)

Delegate(outsource)

Tool SystemHuman System

Service provider helpsthe client by doing some

of it for them(in a custom way)

Service provider helpsthe client by doing all

of it for them(in a standard way)

The choice tochange work practicesrequires answeringfour key questions:

- Should we? (Business Value)- Can we? (Technology)- May we? (Governance)- Will we? (Work Priorities)

Incent People(Social systems with intentional agents)

Harness Nature(Technology systems with stochastic parts)

43

21

Z

Collaborate(1970)

Augment(1980)

Delegate(2000)

Automate(2010)

Experts: High skill people on phones Tools: Less skill with FAQ tools Market: Lower cost geography (India) Technology: Voice response system

Example: Call Centers

Bootstrapping: Douglas Engelbart, Coevolution, and the Origins of Personal Computingby Thierry Bardini “Increasing our collective capabilities to address complex, urgent problems by improving improvement”

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Bardini%2C%20Thierry/103-3454405-6368663

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Bardini%2C%20Thierry/103-3454405-6368663

8



Collaborate: Emergence of Collective IQ

FOXP2 and the Evolution of Language, by Alec MacAndrewhttp://www.evolutionpages.com/FOXP2_language.htm

…Detective story from a family with slurred speech to genes that influence brain development and enable speech (Speech pathology, linguistics, genetics, embryogenesis, neurophysiology, anthropology, primate evolution, etc.)

“With enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow”

“With a large enough smart mob, all inferences are shallow”

Relationship oriented computing tools Amazon – Recommendation system

E-Bay – Reputation system

Google – Relevancy ranking

The Symbolic Species: The Co-Evolution of Language and the Brainby Terrence W. Deacon

The Cathedral & the Bazaar by Eric S. Raymond

Smart Mobsby Howard Rheingold

Open Innovationby Henry Chesbrough

9



Collaborate (continued)

Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Softwareby Steven Johnson

Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Ageby Duncan J. Watts

Connectionsby James Burke

WorldBoard

10



Augment: Telerobotics

First transatlantic telesurgery – September 2001Roundtrip 14,000 km, time lag 200 milliseconds

Doctor: United States Patient: France

Flesh and Machines: How Robots Will Change Usby Rodney Brooks “The brains of people in poorer countries will be hired to control the physical-labor robots, the remote-presence robots, in richer countries. The good thing about this is that the persons in that poorer country will not be doing the dirty, tiring work themselves. It will be relatively high-paying and desirable to work for many places where the economy is poor. Furthermore, it will provide work in those places with poor economies where no other work is available.” (146-147)

11



Delegate: Outsourcing

60 Minutes (1/11/04) : Out of India

The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization

by Thomas L. Friedman

Development as Freedomby Amartya Sen

1998 Nobel PrizeWinner Economics

Measure freedom Measure money

http://www.cio.com/offshoremap/

12



Automate: 3D Printing (a.k.a. stereolithography)

“This Parker Hannifin emissions filter, a crankcase vapor coalescer, is made out of PPSF (polyphenylsulfone), a rapid prototyping material from Stratasys. Parker Hannifin bolted this filter onto a 6.0-liter V8 diesel engine block, and then let the engine run for about 80 hours to test filter-medium efficiency. The prototype filter did just fine. It collected blow-by gases containing 160°F oil, fuel, soot, and other combustion by-products. It didn’t leak. And except for some staining, the filter didn’t appear to have degraded at all.” By Lawrence S. Gould

Rapid Manufacturing: The Technologies and Applications of Rapid Prototyping and Rapid Toolingby S. S. Dimov, Duc Truon Pham

BUILDING BONES. A rat's skull regenerates better with a new bone-promoting scaffold (left) than with a less-sophisticated scaffold (right).F.E. Weber/University Hospital Zurich

Printing Organs

Printing Teeth & Bone

Printing 3D GadgetsPrinting 3D Electronics


What’s Next – NBIC(S) 2.0?

– Energy 2.0:

• 30 stories building – robotically built in 10 days, recycled in 10 days– Manufacturing 2.0:

• Cars built as part of a local recycling service, self driving– Agriculture 2.0:

• Urban farming and local food – the pendulum swings back– Education 2.0:

• Universities as living-labs for their smarter cities (“knowledge burden”); EdX & TEDx

– Life 2.0:

• CAD for bacteria; Search for life & intelligence out there succeeds– Smart 2.0

• SYNAPSE & Watson, SIRI, Wolfram Alpha, etc.


Resiliency: Capability to rebuild (and recycle) rapidly

China Broad Group:30 Stories in 15 Days


Manufacturing as a local recycling & assembly service

Ryan Chin:Urban Mobility


Self-driving cars

Steve Mahan:Test “Driver”


City challenge: buildings and transportation

Ryan Chin:Smart Cities


Cities: land-population-energy-carbon

Carlo Ratti:Senseable Cities


Universities key to regions

Three Streams

– Transfer knowledge

– Create knowledge

– Apply knowledgeto co-create value

Nested Holistic Systems

– Flows

– Development

– Governance

Nation

State/Province

City/Metro

UniversityCollege

K-12

Cultural &ConferenceHotels

HospitalMedical

Research

Worker(professional)

Family(household)

For-profits

Non-profits

U-BEEJob Creator/Sustainer

Third Stream is about U-BEEs = University-Based Entrepreneurial

Ecosystems


Regional Competitiveness and U-BEEs: Where imagined possible worlds become observable real worldshttp://www.service-science.info/archives/1056

Nation

State/Province

City/Region

UniversityCollege

K-12

Cultural &ConferenceHotels

HospitalMedical

Research

Worker(professional)

Family(household)

For-profits

Non-profits

U-BEEJob Creator/Sustainer

U-BEEs = University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems, City Within City

“The future is already here (at universities),it is just not evenlydistributed.”

“The best way topredict the futureis to (inspire the nextgeneration of studentsto) build it better.”

InnovationsUniversities/RegionsCalculus (Cambridge/UK)Physics (Cambridge/UK)Computer Science (Columbia/NY)Microsoft (Harvard/WA)Yahoo (Stanford/CA)Google (Stanford/CA)Facebook (Harvard/CA)


Nations compete and cooperate: Universities important% WW GDP and % WW Top-500-Universities (2009 Data)

Japan

ChinaGermany

France

United KingdomItaly

Russia SpainBrazilCanada

IndiaMexico AustraliaSouth Korea

NetherlandsTurkey

Sweden

y = 0,7489x + 0,3534R² = 0,719

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

% g

loba

l G

DP

% top 500 universities


What’s Important – NBIC(S) 2.0

– Theory is important (object of study)• Whole Service Systems

– individuals, family, cities, etc.• Measures

– Innovativeness, Equity, Sustainability, Resilience– Policymaking (rules) as important at Technology (capabilities)

• Balance WTA & IWL policies• global grand challenges, X-Prizes• Winner-Take-All and Improve-Weakest-Link

– Quality-of-Life focus is important• QoLife =

– QoService (Customer) + QoWork (Provider) + QoOpportunity (Parent)• Education

– T-shaped people– Breadth and depth

• Universities– Third stream: Apply knowledge to create value– Rankings “should” change more (for equity)


Four measures

Innovativeness

Equity

Sustainability

Resiliency

24 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)24

T-shaped professionalsdepth & breadth

BREADTH

DE

PT

H

(analytic thinking & problem solving)

Many culturesMany disciplines

Many systems(understanding & communications)

Deep in one d

iscip

line

Deep in one sys

tem

Deep in one cu

lture


November 6, 2004 | Contact Jim Spohrer ([email protected])

Director, Almaden Services Research

Open Office Hour: Wed 4-5pm PST, 408-927-1928

http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution

http://www.almaden.ibm.com/asr

Service Science, an emerging multidiscipline to accelerate the coevolution of business-technology-work innovations

Industry-Academic-GovernmentCollaboration Needed




26



Today’s Talk

Part 1: Zooming in on accelerating change – what’s really changing?12,000,000,000 year view – emergence of life and human culture

12,000 year view – rise in human population

200 year view – rise of the large managerial firm, and this thing called services – what’s that all about?

Part 2: Are services even the slightest bit interesting?Adam Smith’s view – services are parasites on the rest of the economy

Colin Clark’s view – Smith, Marx, Stalin made the error of neglecting services

Dramatic growth of service sector – the intangible economy

Emergence of Service Science discipline Part 3: So what? What’s the big deal?

From loosely guided to designed evolution of capabilities… (maybe)

Work-capability evolution (collaboration, augmentation, delegation, automation)

27



Part 1: Zooming in on accelerating change

What’s really changing?

12,000,000,000 year view – emergence of life and human culture

12,000 year view – rise in human population

200 year view – rise of the large managerial firm, and this thing called services

– what’s that all about?

28



12B years of capability coevolution & accelerating changeBillion Years Ago Natural Capabilities

12 Big Bang (EMST)

11.5 Milky Way (Atoms)

8 Sun (Energy)

4.5 Earth (Molecules)

3.5 Bacteria (Cell)

2.5 Sponge (Body)

0.7 Clams (Nerves)

0.5 Trilobites (Brains)

0.2 Bees (Swarms)

0.065 Mass Extinctions

0.002 Humans Tools & Clans Coevolution

Generations Ago Human Capabilities

100,000 Speech

750 Agriculture

500 Writing

400 Libraries

40 Universities

24 Printing

16 Accurate Clocks

5 Telephone

4 Radio

3 Television

2 Computer

1 Internet/e-Mail

0 GPS, DVD, WDM

Global Brain: The Evolution of Mass Mind from the Big Bang to the 21st Century

by Howard Bloom

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Bloom%2C%20Howard/103-3454405-6368663

29



12,000 years: Human population growth from 5M to 6B people200 years: Rise of the modern managerial firm

Effects of A

griculture,C

olonial Expansion &

Econom

ics, S

cientific Method, Industrialization

& P

olitics, Education, H

ealthcare &

Information T

echnologies, etc.

The Visible Hand: The Managerial Revolution in American Businessby Alfred Dupont Chandler

Rise of the m

odern managerial

firm

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Chandler%2C%20Alfred%20Dupont/103-3454405-6368663

30



Part 2: Are services even slightly interesting?

Adam Smith’s view – parasites on the rest of the economy

Colin Clark’s view – growing rapidly (Clark-Fisher Hypothesis)

Dramatic growth of service sector – the intangible or “weightless” economy

Emergence of Service Science discipline

31



200 year view: Services dominate

Nation % WW

Labor% A

%G

%S

25 yr %delta S

China 21.0 50 15 35 191

India 17.0 60 17 23 28

U.S. 4.8 3 27 70 21

Indonesia 3.9 45 16 39 35

Brazil 3.0 23 24 53 20

Russia 2.5 12 23 65 38

Japan 2.4 5 25 70 40

Nigeria 2.2 70 10 20 30

Banglad. 2.2 63 11 26 30

Germany 1.4 3 33 64 44

Top Ten Nations by Labor Force Size(about 50% of world labor in just 10 nations)A = Agriculture, G = Goods, S = Services

>50% (S) services, >33% (S) services

2004 2004United States

The largest labor force migrationin human history is underway,

driven by urbanization, global communications,

low cost labor, business growthand technology innovation.

(A) Agriculture:Value from

harvesting nature(G) Goods:

Value from making products

(S) Services:Value from enhancing the

capabilities of things (customizing, distributing, etc.) and interactions between things

32



Services in an economy drive up human capability growth

BusinessServices

Public Administration

ExtractiveSector

ManufacturingSector

InfrastructureServices

TradeServices

Social/personalServices

Consumer

Developing nations that invest in government services, health and educationservices, financial and business services, transportation services, utility services,communication services, and wholesale and retail services (growth of their service economy) create large populations of service labor – removing “un-freedoms,” doing valuable work for others. (see Amartya Sen, Development as Freedom)

Financial & informationProfessional & business

Government

Education & healthcareLeisure & hospitality

Wholesale & retailTransportation & warehousingUtilities & communication

Example: medical, legal,and IT work in India



Source: Dorothy I. Riddle (1986) Service-Led Growth. Praeger, NY

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Amartya%20Sen/103-3454405-6368663


33



Business of production (Solow’s model)

Production is measure of results or “goals achieved”Production per capita (Y) as a function of output per worker (L) and capital assets per worker

(K) and investment per worker (I)

Investment drives technology progress and improves the efficiency of labor; accumulates over time as capital assets

Today: Six billion people (L) with the capital assets created by one hundred billion people throughout history (K) and innovation investments (I) to increase efficiency of L, K, and I

Innovation impact will be realized in terms of…More workers (L): Healthy – healthcare services

More capital assets (K): Wealthy – financial services, retail services, transportation services

More investment (I): Wise – education services, information services, financial services

Growth Theory: An Expositionby Robert M. Solow

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Solow%2C%20Robert%20M./103-3454405-6368663

34



IT investment drives up service sector productivity growth

Worldwide IT spend36% Financial and Information Services

13% Government

9% Retail and Wholesale

8% Professional and Business Services

(20% manufacturing)

US CAGR in Labor Productivity 4.4% Financial and Information Services

3.8% Government

3.8% Retail and Wholesale

2.9% Professional and Business Services

(1.4% manufacturing)

Source: Gartner WW IT Spend

Industry Report (December 2003)

35



Economic Distinctions & Evolution of Value GrowthEconomicOffering

CommodityGoods

PackagedGoods

CommodityServices

ConsumerServices++

BusinessServices++

Economy Agrarian Industrial Service Experience Transformation

EconomicFunction

Extract Make Deliver Stage Co-create value growth

Nature ofOffering

Fungible Tangible Intangible Memorable Effectual

Key Attribute

Natural Standard Custom Personal Value growth relationship

Method ofSupply

Stored inBulk

Inventory of product

DeliveredOn Demand

Reveal overduration

Sustained over time

Seller Trader Manufacturer Provider Stager Collaborator

Buyer Market Customer Client Guest Collaborator

Factors ofDemand

Characteristics Features Benefits Sensations Capabilities(Cultural Values)

Based on (Pine & Gilmore, 1999), Table 9-1, pg 170.

The Experience Economyby B. Joseph Pine II, James H. Gilmore

36



What you may not know… IBM led in the creation of Computer Science departments at universities

Now IBM is working toEstablish Service Science

The biggest costs were in changing the organization. One way to think about these changes is to treat the

Organizational costs as an investment in a new asset. Firms make investments over time in developing a new

process, rebuilding their staff or designing a neworganizational structure, and the benefits from theseInvestments are realized over a long period of time.”Eric Brynjolfsson, “Beyond the Productivity Paradox”

37



Relationship of Service Science to Existing Academic Areas:The center balances three key factors: business value, IT process, organizational culture

Process: Information Technology

Capital:BusinessDecisions

People:OrganizationalCulture

51

9 2527

14

28

10

26

24

84

1. Service Engineering

2. Service Operations

3. Service Management

4. Service Marketing

5. Social Complexity

6. Agent-based comput-ational economics

7. Computational Organization Theory

14. Computer & Information Sciences

15. Management of Innovation

16. Organization Theory

17. Operations Research

18. Systems Engineering

19. Management Science

20. Game Theory

21. Industrial Engineering

22. Marketing

23. Managerial Psychology

2367

11

12

13

1516

17

18

1920

21

22

23

1990-2004

1960-1990

1900-1960

Before 1900

8. Human Capital Management (HCM)

9. Experimental Economics

10. AI & Games

11. Management of Information Systems

12. Computer Supported Collab. Work (CSCW)

13. Human Performance Tech. & Measurement

24. Business Administration (MBA)

25. Economics

26. Law

27. Sociology

28. Education

38



Part 3: So what? What’s the big deal?

From old paradigm business-technology-work coevolution to a new paradigm of facilitated coevolution of capabilities to address complex, urgent problems (maybe – if we can get collectively smart enough, fast enough; problems or challenges are coevolving with capabilities)

Work evolutionImproved collaboration (communications & coordination)

Improved augmentation (tools)

Improved delegation (outsourcing)

Improved automation (self service)

39



Towards facilitated coevolution of capabilities… (an hypothesis)

Collaborate(incentives)

Augment(tool)

Automate(self-service)

Delegate(outsource)

Tool SystemHuman System

Service provider helpsthe client by doing some

of it for them(in a custom way)

Service provider helpsthe client by doing all

of it for them(in a standard way)

The choice tochange work practicesrequires answeringfour key questions:

- Should we? (Business Value)- Can we? (Technology)- May we? (Governance)- Will we? (Work Priorities)

Incent People(Social systems with intentional agents)

Harness Nature(Technology systems with stochastic parts)

43

21

Z

Collaborate(1970)

Augment(1980)

Delegate(2000)

Automate(2010)

Experts: High skill people on phones Tools: Less skill with FAQ tools Market: Lower cost geography (India) Technology: Voice response system

Example: Call Centers

Bootstrapping: Douglas Engelbart, Coevolution, and the Origins of Personal Computingby Thierry Bardini “Increasing our collective capabilities to address complex, urgent problems by improving improvement”

40



Collaborate: Emergence of Collective IQ

FOXP2 and the Evolution of Language, by Alec MacAndrewhttp://www.evolutionpages.com/FOXP2_language.htm

…Detective story from a family with slurred speech to genes that influence brain development and enable speech (Speech pathology, linguistics, genetics, embryogenesis, neurophysiology, anthropology, primate evolution, etc.)

“With enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow”

“With a large enough smart mob, all inferences are shallow”

Relationship oriented computing tools Amazon – Recommendation system

E-Bay – Reputation system

Google – Relevancy ranking

The Symbolic Species: The Co-Evolution of Language and the Brainby Terrence W. Deacon

The Cathedral & the Bazaar by Eric S. Raymond

Smart Mobsby Howard Rheingold

Open Innovationby Henry Chesbrough

http://www.evolutionpages.com/FOXP2_language.htm

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Deacon%2C%20Terrence%20W./103-3454405-6368663

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Eric%20S.%20Raymond/104-2997550-9638329

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Rheingold%2C%20Howard/104-2997550-9638329

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Chesbrough%2C%20Henry%20William/104-2997550-9638329

41



Collaborate (continued)

Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Softwareby Steven Johnson

Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Ageby Duncan J. Watts

Connectionsby James Burke

WorldBoard

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Johnson%2C%20Steven/104-2997550-9638329

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Watts%2C%20Duncan%20J./104-2997550-9638329

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Burke%2C%20James/104-2997550-9638329

42



Augment: Telerobotics

First transatlantic telesurgery – September 2001Roundtrip 14,000 km, time lag 200 milliseconds

Doctor: United States Patient: France

Flesh and Machines: How Robots Will Change Usby Rodney Brooks “The brains of people in poorer countries will be hired to control the physical-labor robots, the remote-presence robots, in richer countries. The good thing about this is that the persons in that poorer country will not be doing the dirty, tiring work themselves. It will be relatively high-paying and desirable to work for many places where the economy is poor. Furthermore, it will provide work in those places with poor economies where no other work is available.” (146-147)

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Rodney%20Brooks/103-3454405-6368663

43



Delegate: Outsourcing

60 Minutes (1/11/04) : Out of India

The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization

by Thomas L. Friedman



Measure freedom Measure money

http://www.cio.com/offshoremap/

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Thomas%20L.%20Friedman/103-3454405-6368663



44



Automate: 3D Printing (a.k.a. stereolithography)

“This Parker Hannifin emissions filter, a crankcase vapor coalescer, is made out of PPSF (polyphenylsulfone), a rapid prototyping material from Stratasys. Parker Hannifin bolted this filter onto a 6.0-liter V8 diesel engine block, and then let the engine run for about 80 hours to test filter-medium efficiency. The prototype filter did just fine. It collected blow-by gases containing 160°F oil, fuel, soot, and other combustion by-products. It didn’t leak. And except for some staining, the filter didn’t appear to have degraded at all.” By Lawrence S. Gould

Rapid Manufacturing: The Technologies and Applications of Rapid Prototyping and Rapid Toolingby S. S. Dimov, Duc Truon Pham

BUILDING BONES. A rat's skull regenerates better with a new bone-promoting scaffold (left) than with a less-sophisticated scaffold (right).F.E. Weber/University Hospital Zurich

Printing Organs

Printing Teeth & Bone

Printing 3D GadgetsPrinting 3D Electronics

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Dimov%2C%20S.%20S./103-3454405-6368663

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Dimov%2C%20S.%20S./103-3454405-6368663

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Pham%2C%20Duc%20Truon/103-3454405-6368663




45



In the past, work has changed relatively slowly…

46



In the service economy, work changes rapidly…

Science Technology Business

Group (outside) Social Science,Economics,Org. Behavior

Financial Services, Legal, Insurance, Government

Individual (inside/outside)

Cognitive Science

Education, Communication

Brain (inside) Neurophysiology Healthcare, Public

Cell (inside) Proteomics Healthcare, Industrial

Gene (inside) Genomics Healthcare,Distribution

Science produces D

ata, drives Info T

echT

ech underlies new P

roducts &

Services

New

Products &

Services drive

Business

Science-technology and business innovations constantly reconfigure work.Service science seeks to understand and design improved reconfigurations.

47



Perhaps technology can help search for improvements in the reconfigurations space…Blue Gene, as its name suggests, is aimed at the drug-development market. Scientists hope eventually to model how proteins fold – a process that is important in designing drugs that can block cancer cells and other diseases.Computational organization theory and agent-based computational economicsare potential future directions.

36.01 teraflops (Linpack benchmark)

48



Emergence of Service ScienceUnderstand service phenomena to better optimize across three levels impacted by rise of service economy

Economic goals at three levels1. Nations: Maximize GDP / Capita per year

Note nations have many other goals, including environment, health, education, defense, quality of life for citizens, high-skill, high-pay jobs, etc.

2. Businesses: Maximize Revenue / Employee and Profits / Employee per year

Note increasingly businesses are adding additional values, such as sustainable environment, work-life balance, etc.

3. Individuals: Maximize Income / Time

Note in a survey of US information technology workers, base-pay rated fourth in overall goals, behind challenge, stability, and flexibility of work experience.

Economic goals are achieved by four plans, productivity level is the key attribute1. Follow demand: Migrate labor to high productivity industries/offerings/jobs where demand exceeds supply

2. Create demand/value innovation: Invent new high productivity industries/offerings/jobs

3. Repair supply: Invest to transform low productivity industries/offerings/jobs(skills); including leap-frog productivity strategy

4. Protect supply: Invest to protect low productivity industries/offerings/jobs(skills) in an effort to buy time, and if lucky catch next wave

The study of value innovation & labor productivity are important to service scienceHistorically, what has determined the rise in demand for particular types of services? What types of innovation have led to a rise in the demand for

particular types of services? What types of innovation have led to a rise in labor productivity in particular industries?

Already empirical evidence indicates that effective IT-enabled productivity gains requires aligning technology, business/value, and organizational culture innovations. People can resist change or help accelerate change depending on the alignment of all three factors.

As economic goals are achieved, wealth increases, and increasingly other goals take priority, hence the value of economic transactions will not simply be measured in financial terms, side-effects matter. Economic transactions will need to maximize value add beyond financial metrics.

49



A Preliminary Definition of Service Science

Service Science is the study of business methods to create and capture value, technology tools to re-engineer processes, and organizational culture practices to incent and align people, and their collective impact on effectiveness and efficiency in the performance of services work.

Recent studies of IT Productivity Paradox indicate that technology tools, business methods, and organizational culture must align to achieve return on investment for IT.

The services industry must be viewed as a collection of interacting systems, where the history of the systems (legacy) matters as much as new events in understanding what should, can, may, and will happen next.

Effectiveness means working on the right things that matter to the business and efficiency means doing the work according to best practices. Productivity depends on both effective and efficient performance.

Services are typically simultaneously produced (by the provider) and consumed (by the client). The provider and the client can each be individuals, organizations, or automated systems.

PeopleHuman & Organizational

Performance(PIP = 1.1 to 10)

ProcessBusiness Optimization,

Professional Services Automation(PIP = 1.1 to 4)

CapitalValue Based Management

(PIP = 1.1 to 2)

PIP: Potential for Improvement of Performance

50



Coevolution

Service ScienceIndustry

AcademicGovernmentCollaboration

History of Technology

History of Work

History of Business

Technology Projections

Work Projections

Business Projections

Technology->process change(also regulations->process change)Business->capital ROI changeWork-> people and org. change(also education->people change)









EXTRA SLIDES




52



This talk…

Is about accelerating innovation…By improving technology and organizations and work

Service science to accelerate the coevolution of business-technology-work innovations

Is not about assessing risks… Is not about betting on the future...

Things That Make Us Smart: Defending Human Attributes in the Age of the Machineby Donald A. Norman Examples: Watch, Writing; Metric: Symbols & Models

Survival of the Smartest: Managing Information for Rapid Action and World-Class Performanceby Haim Mendelson, Johannes ZieglerMetric: Awareness, Decisions, Communication, Focus, Infrastr.

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Norman%2C%20Donald%20A./103-3454405-6368663

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Mendelson%2C%20Haim/104-2997550-9638329



http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Ziegler%2C%20Johannes/104-2997550-9638329

53



Risks – not today’s talk

Privacy violations (social issues) Unequal access (social issues) Censorship (social issues) Mischief and crime (social issues) Environmental damage (systemic issues) Glitches and out of control (systemic issues) Overload (cognitive, social, and systemic issues) Also alienation, narrowing, deceit, degradation,

intrusion, inequality, etc. (and many more issues associated with new technologies of all sorts throughout the history of humans which is also (incidentally) the history of technology & organizations)

The Future Does Not Compute: Transcending the Machines in Our MidstSee NetFuture (http://www.netfuture.org/) by Steve Talbott ([email protected])(also see Chapter 7of Andy Clark “Natural-Born Cyborgs” titled “Bad Borgs?”))

http://www.netfuture.org/

http://www.praxagora.com/~stevet/index.html


54



Betting on the future – not today’s talk

But if you want to bet, check out Longbets.org, one of a growing number of websites dedicated to betting on the future

Many bets such as Featured Bet on 20040208: Douglas C. Hewes predicts: "By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification."read the argument »

Stuart Brand, author of “The Clock of the Long Now”Founder, Longbet.org

http://www.longbets.org/user/dch

http://www.longbets.org/user/dch

http://www.longbets.org/106

55



What makes us smarter? Human system & Tool system

Capability evolution = things that make us smart (our organizations & tools)Growth of capabilities to create and achieve goals, intentionally and parsimoniously

Growth of win-win games over win-lose; higher payoffs; lower risks; lower maintenance (entropy)

Growth of capabilities to sense, communicate, decide, act; Growth of capabilities to bud and scale

Slowly: In the past 12 billion years (2 million years), evolution has been driving what has been making things (humans) smarter

Atoms, Molecules, Cell, Life, Body, Nerves, Brains, Swarms, Humanity…

Rapidly: In the past 200 years, organizations have been driving what has been making us smarter – business-technology-work coevolution

Citizen - 230 years ago it was government – rise of modern democracy (intangible - sustainable freedom)

Worker - 150 years ago it was business – rise of modern managerial firm (intangible - efficient value)

Consumer – 80 years ago buy more than make; Shareholder – 20 years ago; upside for growth of businesses

Very Rapidly: In the past 50 years, information technology has been driving what has been making us smarter – service economy dominates

Only in the last fifty years with the discovery of DNA (bio), creation of digital computing technology (info), ability to manipulate matter at the atomic scale (nano), and rapid advancement of cognitive science to better understand human thought processes (cogno) has information processing in natural, social, and technological substrates been perceived as “converging” – discoveries in one area leading to advances/applications in the others

Shadows in the Sun, by Wade Davis“Ethnosphere: It's really the sum total of all the thoughts, beliefs, myths, and institutions brought into being by the human imagination. It is humanity's greatest legacy, embodying everything we have produced as a curious and amazingly adaptive species.”

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Wade%20Davis/103-3454405-6368663

56



Business Implications: Three examples

Healthy: More healthy people to boost effective laborOur Bodies & Our Environment

Someday Personalized Pharmaceuticals (nano for sensors, delivery, design)

Wealthy: More capital assets per worker to boost effective laborOur Material Goods (Sustainable, Cheaper, Stronger)

Someday On Demand Materials (nano for manufacturing materials)

Wise: Better investment decisions to boost efficiency of laborOur Thinking and Perception (Access to Information)

Someday Learning Conversations (nano for compute performance, interface)

57



Rational drug development requires managing enormous complexity. Pharmaceutical companies are beginning to differentiate themselves on the power of their information technology platforms. IT Platform intellectual property is likely to be more valuable than content (gene sequences, metabolic pathways, protein structures, etc.)

DNA 40,000 genes (approx.100 million bases) represent less than 3% of the genome (approx. 3 billion bases). The function of the remaining 97% remains elusive.

alternative splicing turns 40,000 genes into 500,000 messages

post translational modification turns 500,000 messages into 1.5 million proteins

1.5 million proteins interacting in complex networks create hundreds of millions of metabolic pathways

hundreds of millions of pathways influenced by the environment and stochastic processes create 6 billion different individuals

Personalized Pharmaceuticals

RNA Protein Pathways Phenotype

Drugs treat phenotypes

Historically, 220 targets have generated $3trillion of value. Industrialized genome sequencing has created a target rich, lead poor environment that will slowly reverse over the next several years as in-silico biology drives the discovery of new lead compounds.

DNA to Phenotype = 300 terabytes per person x 6 billion persons = 1800 billion terabytes of data

Healthy

e.g., Modafinil enhances wakefulness and vigilance

58



Material Goods

Environmentally friendly, sustainable production Cheaper, Stronger, Lighter, Durable, Active, etc. Smart, polymorphic, chromatically active materials Clothing and Textiles – stain resistant Computing technologies – roll-to-roll manufacturing Cars and Vehicles Roads Houses and Buildings Furniture and Appliances Foods

Wealthy

59



Access to information & better investment decisions

Learn

ing

C

on

versation

s

WiseSemantic Web and Natural Language Capabilities

Trillions of Calculations per Second100,000

10,000

1,000

100

10

11997 2000 2005 2010 2015

APPLICATIONS----------------------Human Like Behavior“HAL”

Predictive Modeling

Protein Folding

Nuclear Simulation

Chess Playing

Peter Bernstein’s against the gods…

60



50 Years: Information technology connecting islands of information (created by people) into larger networks

Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance: Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and Cognitive Scienceby Mihail C. Roco (Editor), William Sims Bainbridge (Editor)

0.00E+00

5.00E+16

1.00E+17

1.50E+17

2.00E+17

2.50E+17

3.00E+17

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

transistors

About 10 billion transistors made per second in 2004, doubling each 18 monthsWorldwide Production of Transistors on all ICs (Source: NSF)

Growth rates for:

Nano: Transistors made per second

Bio: Gene sequenced per second, Cell divisions observed per second,fMRI regions scanned per second

Info: Bytes storage made per second

Cogno: Emails per second, IM per second Google searchers per second

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Roco%2C%20Mihail%20C./103-3454405-6368663

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Roco%2C%20Mihail%20C./103-3454405-6368663

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Bainbridge%2C%20William%20Sims/103-3454405-6368663

61



Model of capabilities: Outside-Inside FrameworkNature, Organizations, Technology: But where is the metric?

Relative Position Capability Areas

External (outside the body; environmental) Materials - Cost, Affordances, Dynamics

Agents – Organizations, Bots, Animals

Places – Real, Virtual, Mixed

Mediators - Tools

External (outside the body; personal) Mediators – Wearables, Mobile Tools

Internal (inside the body; temporary) Ingestibles – Medicines, Foods

Internal (inside the body; permanent) Organs – Implants, Sensor & Effectors

Skills – Learning, New Uses of Old

Genes – New Species, Devel. Process

Outside-Inside Framework can be used to analyze the past, and speculate about futures.

62



Outside-Inside Framework Applied: Past & FutureHow much have cognitive capabilities been increasing?

- 100,000 Generations: SpeechNew Species (Kind of Agent)

New Use of Old Sense (sounds -> symbols: language) - 500 : Writing

New Mediator: Store symbols for later use (and New Skills = Scribes) - 400 : Libraries, 40 Universities, 24 Printing

New Mediator, Places: Communicate/Distribute (and Agents = Organizations) - 16 : Accurate Clocks for Navigation & More

New Mediator: Measure (and Agents = Organization) - 5 : Telephone, 4 - Radio, 3 - TV, 2 - Computers, 1 - Internet

New Mediator: Communicate/Distribute (and Agents = Organizations/Businesses)

New Use Old Sense: Stories (e.g., Why Honeymooners = Flintstones) -0.5 :GPS/Sensors for Navigation & More

New Mediator: Measure (and Agents = Organizations/Businesses) +0.5 : On-Demand e-Business (?business on demand?)

New Agent (Businesses become more automated, adaptive, resilient, responsive) +1 : NBIC (?nano-bio-info-cogno convergence?)

New Material (Nanotechnology – first impact on materials, electronics, and life sciences)

New Sense (Bionics - neural & biochemical interfaces cure deafness, blindness, organ failure)

New Mediator (Information WorldBoard - planetary augmented reality system)

New Agents (Cognitive robots or Bots - natural language interface to all human knowledge) +5 : Utility Fog (?materials on demand?)

New Material (Utility Fog – billions of particles assemble on-demand to create macro-scale objects)

Nonzero : The Logic of Human Destiny by Robert Wright

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Robert%20Wright/103-3454405-6368663

63



The evolution of business towards a services economy (jobs arise and decline; a rolling shift in needed jobs & skills)

0102030405060708090

100

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Services (Info)

Services (Other)

Industry (Goods)

Agriculture

Estimations based on Porat, M. (1977) Info Economy: Definitions and Measurement

U.S. Employment Percentages by Sector

The Pursuit of Organizational Intelligence, by James G. March Exploitation versus exploration; services adapt goods to demand

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=March%2C%20James%20G./103-3454405-6368663

64



The evolution of business towards “On Demand e-Business”

Technology and business innovations are coevolving.Rapid business productivity improvements are driven by technology innovations.

Rapid technology improvements are driven by business investments.Moore’s “law” is as much a law of business investment as of technological possibilities.

(see http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution) – two systems ratchet each other up.Characteristics of an on-demand e-business.

Adaptive Enterprise: Creating and Leading Sense-And-Respond Organizationsby Stephan H. Haeckel, Adrian J. Slywotzky


http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Haeckel%2C%20Stephan%20H./103-3454405-6368663

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Slywotzky%2C%20Adrian%20J./103-3454405-6368663

65



On demand e-business is enabled by an on demand operating environment.The on demand operating environment mirrors changing work practices

Integration

Virtualized

Open Standards

Autonomic

66



Social Technology

Government

Industry Groups

Business

Division

Department

Workgroup

Person

IP WAN

Metro

LAN

Data Center

Cluster

Rack

Box

Board

Chip

P-PM-M

M-P

P-M

P-M-P

M-P-M

Evolving Complexity and Interconnections

eLearning

eGovernment

Autonomic Storage

IP-based Network Storage

Storage Virtualization

SAN Mgmt

Distr and SAN-wide File System

Policy-based Automation

Interconnects

Video Area Networks

Rich Media

Wireless

Wireless

Operational Risk (FSS)

Wireless Physician

MultichannelMgmt

PLM

Telematics

eSourcing

CPG/CRMProcurement ServicesUtility

eBiz Mgmt

Edge Computing

Life Sciences

Managed Storage Services

Knowledge Mgmt

Identity Manager

ASP Hosted Platform

High Volume Linux

Linux Clusters

Server ApplianceHigh end Intel

Server Blade

Media Appliance

Grid Computing

eLiza

High Performance Computing

Photonics

Wireless 3G

Pervasive/Mobile Computing

DB2 Everywhere

Mobile Notes

Devi ce Software

Unified Communications

Broadband Game

Advanced Personal Digital Video

Wireless Client

Autonomic Client

67



The New Environment and Human Activity: Where does our time go?From the search for food to the search for information

InformationInformationEnergyEnergy

MaxUseful info

TimeMaxEnergyTime [ ][ ]

Source: Pirolli (2002)

Humans as Informavore (Miller, 1983)

68



Cognitive Technologies: Where is the knowledge? Localized in a brain -- yours!

Remind: Capture history and augment memory

Remediate: Practice with simulation games Localized in a brain -- but someone else’s brain, soon to be yours too!

Receive: Training, for use in known context (exploitation)

Reconstruct: Education, for use in unknown context (exploration) In no one’s brain (yet) -- but someday localized in your brain and/or others.

Research: Answer question the first time

Reflect: Ask question the first time Distributed in the collective closure of brains, bodies, and technologies, “no

one’s brain”

69



Cognitive capabilities: In pursuit of a metric

Knowledge in our minds is soft capability Knowledge in our genes, body, brains is hard capability Knowledge in our organizations is relationship capability However, in human and social systems attitudes, incentives, and

games are an element of the cognitive capabilities of the system Given a goal: land and safely return humans on Mars, one can

estimate how many resources would be required to achieve this goal given the cognitive capabilities of the system.

How does one compare the complexity of achieving different goals? How does one compare sensing, communications, decision making,

and execution performance?

Natural-Born Cyborgs: Minds, Technologies, and the Future of Human Intelligence

by Andy Clark “…human cognitive evolution seems to involve the distinct way human brains repeatedly create and exploit various species of cognitive technology.” (pg. 78)

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Clark%2C%20Andy/103-3454405-6368663

70



Meta Trends: Exponential Growth

Moore's Law - Miniaturization - ContinuesProcessing, Storage, ...Price/Performance 2X over 12-18 months

Metcalf's Law - Interconnection - ContinuesValue of a network increases as the square of the number

connections Gilder's Law - Quantization - Continues

Bandwidth increases 3X every 36 months Negraponte's "Law - Digitization - Emerges

Superiority of "bits over atoms"Profound impact felt in "Knowledge Economy" where ideas

are ultimate raw material

71



Key Megatrends Driving Venture Investment

Switching is shifting from circuits to packets. Data, then voice; Backbone, then access

Transmission is shifting from electronic to photonic.First long haul, then metro, then local access

Functions are moving from the enterprise to the Net.IP universal protocol/ platform of choice is the Net

Offerings are moving from products to services."Utilitization" of processing, applications, storage, ... knowledge

Bioscience is moving from in vitro to in silicoFirst Genomics, then Proteomics, ... nanotechnologies

Key Megashifts

72



The science: nano-bio-cogno-socio-techno convergence:It’s all about information – encoding, processing, replicating – in different systems (ultimately all grounded in matter patterns)

System Encoding Processing Replicating

Nano Matter(Nature)

Atoms & Molecules

Universe to Atoms

Galactic, Solar, Planet Systems

Bio Life (Nature)

DNA Cells to Ecosystems

Evolution

Cogno Thought (Nature/Human)

Brains Neural Nets Evolution - Culture

Socio Culture (Human)

People Organizations Evolution - Culture

Techno Technology (Human)

Artifacts & Bits Computers Design-Factories

Examples: FOXP2, Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) – Variability, Interaction, Selection

Coevolutio

n

Rapidly increasing rates of advancement in each system area is creating cross pollination

73



Biocomplexity: Much prettier picture than my table!

Rita Colwell,Former Director National Science Foundation (NSF)

74



IBM’s business is helping customers transform their businesses. Services is now 50% of IBM, with rapid growth from strategic outsourcing, help desk, business consulting.

IBM 101 – The New (Post 1995) IBM EcosystemRevenue: $80+ Billion/YearEmployees: 320,000+, about 50% inside-US, 50% outside-USIBM Global Services, approx. 170,000 people in 120 countries

•Services(IGS)

•Middleware/Software(SWG)

•Sales(S&D)

•Finance (IGF)•Boxes/Hardware

(Servers, Storage, Personal)

•Chips/Technology(IMD, TG)

•PartnerWorld(Developer Relations)

•IBM Research

•IBM’s Customers

•IBM’s Partners

•IB

M’s

Platform

•(DB2, WS, Rational, Tivoli, Lotus)

•Alternate providers

•Alternate vendors

•IB

M’s

Services

• IB

M’s Industry

Solutions







HELP ME DO IT MANAGE IT FOR ME

TELL ME WHAT TO DO

Integrated Technology Services Integrated Technology Services

Business Innovation Services Business Innovation Services

e-business e-business

Hosting ServicesHosting Services

e-business Strategy Consulting

Industry Solutions

Web Application & Integration

e-business Infrastructure

Hardware Integration Alliances

New Technologies: Linux, SAN, Wireless

Technical Support Services

Colocation to Fully Managed Services

e-sourcing

Strategic Strategic

Outsourcing Outsourcing ServicesServices

Outsourcing Services

Application Management

IBM Global Services Provides e-business Services

Learning ServicesLearning Services




76



ODIS 101: On-Demand Innovation Services (ODIS) sets the stage for the next generation researcher – one that is closely tuned with real-world client issues to drive and validate innovations, technological-organizational-business perspectives. Requires new academic collaborations beyond technological.

1970’s-80’s1970’s-80’s 80’s-90’s80’s-90’s 90’s-00’s90’s-00’s

Research

Focus

Centrally funded Joint programsResearch in the

marketplace

Researchers

IBM

Offering

Centrally DeterminedCorporate Issues

Collaborative AgendaDetermined with Brands

Agenda Linked to Client Issues

In the LabSome Joint

Development with Clients

Some Researchers inthe Marketplace

Hardware Software Services

On Demand Innovation

Create business

advantage for clients

77



IBM Research Worldwide







Thanks for your attention.

Suggestions and ideas are welcome. E-mail [email protected] or Jim Spohrer/Almaden/IBM.






Outline

The Global Opportunity (IBM Perspective)– 1000’s of Smarter Cities Projects– Example: Rio De Janeiro– Analytics, Cloud, Growth Markets, Universities– Individuals & Institutions Learning Together– T-Shaped People & Regional Smart Camp Entrepreneurs

Smarter Planet = Smarter Human-Serving Systems– Smarter Planet

• Instrumented-Interconnected-Intelligent• Internet-of-Things, Cloud Computing, Analytics

– Quality-of-Life (QoL)• Less waste in flows (energy, materials, etc.)• More development of capabilities• Better governance and decision-making

Service Science, Service Systems & Measurement– Service = applying knowledge to benefit others (value-cocreation)– Service science studies human-serving systems (service systems)– Service systems = configure individuals, infrastructure, institutions, information– QoL matters, university & urban innovations matter to business & society– Business Measures = Productivity, Quality, Compliance, Innovation– Societal Measures = Innovativeness, Equity, Sustainability, Resilience

IBM GMU External Relations 201281


• For each industry the journey consists of a series of steps along a path of competencies to reach a smarter outcome for organizations

• The power to pull together many sources of data in real time to source actionable insights and optimize clients’ business

• Revenue IBM generated from Analytics solutions grew 16% from 2010

Analytics is enabling clients with trusted and relevant information in REAL TIME


Through to 2015, more than 85% of Fortune 500 organizations will fail to exploit ‘big data’ for competitive advantage

--Gartner Predictions 2012


Developing capabilities that improve visibility, control and automation of cloud computing services


Private & Hybrid CloudsCloud Enablement technologies

Managed Cloud ServicesInfra & platform as a Service

Cloud Business SolutionsSoftware & Business Process as a Service

Commitment to open standards & broad ecosystems

IBMSmartCloud

IBMSmartCloudSolutions

IBMSmartCloudServices

IBMSmartCloudFoundation

Business Process as a ServiceSoftware as a Service

Platform as a Service

Infrastructure as a Service


Established presence in many Growth Market countries...

85

IndiaSouth Asia

CentralEasternEurope

Middle EastAfrica

SofiaZagrebPrague

BrnoOstravaTallinn

BudapestAlmaty

RigaVilnius

WarsawWroclawKrakowGdansk

KatowicePoznan

BucharestTimisoara

UfaKazan

Rostov-on-DonSamara

PermNovosibirrskKrasnoyarsk

MoscowSt PetersburgEkaterinburg

BelgradeBratislava

Banska BystricaKosice

LjubljanaAnkara

IstanbulIzmire

DnepropetrovskKiev

Tashkent

Australia New Zealand

BrisbaneSydney

AucklandPerth

AdelaideHobart

BallaratMelbourneWellington

ChristchurchLower Hutt

ASEAN

Bandar Seri BegawanJakarta

SurabayaMedan

MakassarManila

CebuChiangmai

BangkokPattayaDaNang

Ho Chi Minh City

GreaterChinaGroup

BeijingHong Kong

TaipeiHefei

XiamenChongqing

ShanghaiBeijingTianjin

FuzhouGuangzhou

ShenzhenNanjingHarbin

ShijiazhuangWuhan

ZhengzouChangsha

ChangchunNanningSuzhou

NanchangShenyang

DalianTaiyuahQingdao

JinanXi’an

ChengduUrumchiKunming

HangzhouNingbo

Korea

SeoulDaejeon Daegu

KwangjuPusan

LatinAmericaBuenos Aires

CordobaRosario

Rio de JaneiroSalvadorFortalez

Belo HorizonteUberlandia

RecifeCuritiba

Porto AlegreCampinas

JoinvilleAnto fogasta

MedellinCali

GuayaquilGuadalajara

MonterreyQueretaro

Lima

ChandigarhDehradun

DelhiGurgaon

NoidaJaipur

LucknowGuwahati

AhmedabadIndore

MumbaiKolkata

PuneBhubaneshwar

HyderabadVizag

BangaloreChennai

CoimbatoreKochiNasik

ColomboDakkar

LuandaQatar

AlexandriaCairoAccra

NairobiCasablanca

Port LouisLagos

KarachiIslamabad

LahoreRiyadhDakar

JohannesburgPretoriaDurban

Cape TownPort ElizabethBloemfontein

Dar es SalaamTunis

Abu DhabiDubai

OuangadougouN’Djamena

KinshasaLibreville

AccraLilongwe

AntananarivoNiamey

SeychellesFreetownKampala

Lusaka

http://w3.ibm.com/bluepedia/pages/createpage.action?spaceKey=en&title=Latin+Caribbean&linkCreation=true&fromPageId=15629


Evolving regional talent & skills


IBM is making long term investments to develop talent for the growth markets

Collaboration with UniversitiesIBM works with 5,000 universities and 10,000 faculties around the globe. We have joint initiatives and investments with universities in Vietnam, Malaysia, India, Russia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Egypt, China and Africa to encourage the training of skills required.

Government Partnerships

By helping governments to establish new national research facilities, we are helping to create new industries, helping to develop long terms skills curriculums like SSME.

Global Placements & MentoringTransferring knowledge and expertise to the growth markets is critical. One of the ways we do this is to move experts into the market to coach and train local teams.

87 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)87

Our Past, Present, Future: Refining Individuals & Institutions Learning Together

Any Device Learning

TECHNOLOGY IMMERSION

PERSONAL LEARNING PATHS

Student-Centered Processes

KNOWLEDGE SKILLS

Learning Communities

GLOBAL INTEGRATION

Services Specialization

ECONOMIC ALIGNMENT

Systemic View of Education

Intelligent• Aligned Data• Outcomes Insight

Instrumented• Student-centric• Integrated Assessment

Interconnected• Shared Services• Interoperable Processes

ContinuingEducation

HigherEducation

SecondarySchool

PrimarySchool

WorkforceSkills

Individuals Learning Continuum TheEducationalContinuum

Institutio

ns Learn

ing Contin

uum

EconomicSustainability

http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/bus/html/education-for-a-smarter-planet.html


88

Identifies entrepreneurs developing businesses aligning with our Smarter Planet vision.

SmartCamp finalists raised more than $50m and received significant press in Wall Street Journal, Forbes and Bloomberg

- in

Healthcare SmartCamp kickstart - Miami - May 15, 2012 Apply by April 27th

Healthcare SmartCamp kickstart - Miami - May 15, 2012 Apply by April 27th

SmarterCities SmartCamp kickstart - New York - May 24, 2012 Apply by May 3rd

SmarterCities SmartCamp kickstart - New York - May 24, 2012 Apply by May 3rd

North America Regional SmartCamp - Boston - June 20 & 21, 2012 Apply by May 25th

North America Regional SmartCamp - Boston - June 20 & 21, 2012 Apply by May 25th

apply now at www.ibm.com/isv/startup/smartcampapply now at www.ibm.com/isv/startup/smartcamp

Exclusive Networking andMentoring eventExclusive Networking andMentoring event

North America SmartCamp lead: Eric Apse, [email protected] Programs lead: Dawn Tew, [email protected]

http://www.ibm.com/isv/startup/smartcamp

http://www.ibm.com/isv/startup/smartcamp


What is Smarter Planet?3 I’s = Smarter Systems (less waste, better decisions)

INSTRUMENTED

We now have the ability to measure, sense and see the exact condition of practically everything.

INTERCONNECTED

People, systems and objects can communicate

and interact with each other in entirely new

ways.

INTELLIGENT

We can respond to changes quickly and accurately, and get better results

by predicting and optimizing

for future events.

WORKFORCE

PRODUCTS

SUPPLY CHAIN

COMMUNICATIONS

TRANSPORTATION BUILDINGS

IT NETWORKS


What improves Quality-of-Life? Smarter Human-Serving Systems = Service System Innovations

A. Systems that focus on flow of things that humans need (~15%*)1. Transportation & supply chain

2. Water & waste recycling/Climate & Environment

3. Food & products manufacturing

4. Energy & electricity grid/Clean Tech

5. Information and Communication Technologies (ICT access)B. Systems that focus on human activity and development (~70%*)

6. Buildings & construction (smart spaces) (5%*)

7. Retail & hospitality/Media & entertainment/Tourism & sports (23%*)

8. Banking & finance/Business & consulting (wealthy) (21%*)

9. Healthcare & family life (healthy) (10%*)

10. Education & work life/Professions & entrepreneurship (wise) (9%*)C. Systems that focus on human governance - security and opportunity (~15%*)

11. Cities & security for families and professionals (property tax)

12. States/regions & commercial development opportunities/investments (sales tax)

13. Nations/NGOs & citizens rights/rules/incentives/policies/laws (income tax)

20/10/10

0/19/0

2/7/42/1/1

7/6/11/1/0

5/17/27

1/0/2

24/24/1

2/20/247/10/3

5/2/2

3/3/10/0/0

1/2/2

Quality of Life = Quality of Service + Quality of Jobs + Quality of Investment-Opportunities

* = US Labor % in 2009.

“61 Service Design 2010 (Japan) / 75 Service Marketing 2010 (Portugal)/78 Service-Oriented Computing 2010 (US)”

© 2012 IBM Corporation

IBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM Upward)

StakeholderPriorities

Education

Research

Business

Government

StakeholderPriorities

Education

Research

Business

Government

Service Systems

Customer-provider interactions that enable value cocreation

Dynamic configurations of resources: people, technologies, organisations and information

Increasing scale, complexity and connectedness of service systems

B2B, B2C, C2C, B2G, G2C, G2G service networks

Service Systems

Customer-provider interactions that enable value cocreation

Dynamic configurations of resources: people, technologies, organisations and information

Increasing scale, complexity and connectedness of service systems

B2B, B2C, C2C, B2G, G2C, G2G service networks

Service Science

To discover the underlying principles of complex service systems

Systematically create, scale and improve systems

Foundations laid by existingdisciplines

Progress in academic studies and practical tools

Gaps in knowledge and skills

Service Science

To discover the underlying principles of complex service systems

Systematically create, scale and improve systems

Foundations laid by existingdisciplines

Progress in academic studies and practical tools

Gaps in knowledge and skills

Develop programmes & qualifications

Develop programmes & qualifications

Service Innovation

Growth in service GDP and jobs

Service quality & productivity

Environmental friendly & sustainable

Urbanisation &aging population

Globalisation & technology drivers

Opportunities for businesses, governments and individuals

Service Innovation

Growth in service GDP and jobs

Service quality & productivity

Environmental friendly & sustainable

Urbanisation &aging population

Globalisation & technology drivers

Opportunities for businesses, governments and individuals

Skills& Mindset

Skills& Mindset

Knowledge& Tools

Knowledge& Tools

Employment& Collaboration

Employment& Collaboration

Policies & Investment

Policies & Investment

Develop and improve service innovation roadmaps, leading to a doubling of investment in service education and research by 2015

Develop and improve service innovation roadmaps, leading to a doubling of investment in service education and research by 2015

Encourage an interdisciplinary approach

Encourage an interdisciplinary approach

The white paper offers a starting point to -

The white paper offers a starting point to -

Priorities: Succeeding through Service Innovation - A Framework for Progress(http://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/ssme/)

Source: Workshop and Global Survey of Service Research Leaders (IfM & IBM 2008)

Glossary of definitions, history and outlook of service research, global trends, and ongoing debate

1. Emerging demand 2. Define the domain 3. Vision and gaps 4. Bridge the gaps 5. Call for actions

http://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/ssme/


US National Academy of Engineering Grand ChallengesA. Systems that focus on flow of things humans need

1. Transportation & Supply Chain

Restore and enhance urban infrastructure

2. Water & Waste/Climate & Green tech

Provide access to clear water

3. Food & Products

Manager nitrogen cycle

4. Energy & Electricity

Make solar energy economical

Provide energy from fusion

Develop carbon sequestration methods

5. Information & Communication Technology

Enhance virtual reality

Secure cyberspace

Reverse engineer the brain

B. Systems that focus on human activity & development6. Buildings & Construction (smart spaces)

Restore and enhance urban infrastructure

7. Retail & Hospitality/Media & Entertainment (tourism)

Enhance virtual reality

8. Banking & Finance/Business & Consulting

9. Healthcare & Family Life

Advance health informatics

Engineer better medicines

Reverse engineer the brain

10. Education & Work Life/Jobs & Entrepreneurship

Advance personalized learning

Engineer the tools of scientific discovery

C. Systems that focus on human governance11. City & Security

Restore and improve urban infrastructure

Secure cyberspace

Prevent nuclear terror

12. State/Region & Development

13. Nation & Rights


California Human Development Report 2011:From meaning-of-life to quality-of-life…. http://w

ww

.measureofam

erica.org/docs/AP

ortraitOfC

A.pdf


Imagining quality-of-life innovations…


A Framework for Global Civil Society

Daniel Patrick Moynihan said nearly 50 years ago: "If you want to build a world class city, build a great university and wait 200 years." His insight is true today – except yesterday's 200 years has become twenty. More than ever, universities will generate and sustain the world’s idea capitals and, as vital creators, incubators, connectors, and channels of thought and understanding, they will provide a framework for global civil society.

– John Sexton, President NYU


Visit IBM Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA

Upcoming Conferences– July 2012

• ISSS San Jose• HSSE San Francisco

More Information– Blog

• www.service-science.info– Twitter

• @JimSpohrer– Presentations

• www.slideshare.net/spohrer– Email

• [email protected]


Thank-You! Questions?

Dr. James (“Jim”) C. SpohrerInnovation Champion & Director, IBM University Programs & open worldwide entrepreneurship research (IBM UPower) [email protected]

“Instrumented, Interconnected, Intelligent – Let’s build a Smarter Planet.” – IBM“If we are going to build a smarter planet, let’s start by building smarter cities” – CityForward.org“Universities are major employers in cities and key to urban sustainability.” – Coalition of USU

“Cities learning from cities learning from cities.” – Fundacion Metropoli“The future is already here… It is just not evenly distributed.” – Gibson

“The best way to predict the future is to create it/invent it.” – Moliere/Kay“Real-world problems may not/refuse to respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper/Spohrer

“Today’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions.” – Senge“History is a race between education and catastrophe.” – H.G. Wells

“The future is born in universities.” – Kurilov“Think global, act local.” – Geddes

98

SERVICE(Value-Cocreation)

AS-ISTarget & Context

TO-BETarget &Context

Aspirations

Goals Constraints

Responsibilities

Needs

Wants OUTCOME

Target &Context

IF-REDONETarget &Context

Learning

Side Effects

Experience

Unintended Consequences

Gaps

InsightsSHAREDINFORMATION

Plans

Procedures

Flowcharts

Rules

Policies

Regulations

Templates

Schedules

Diagrams/ Schematics

Instructions

ORGANIZATIONS

Software

Applications

Equipment

InfrastructureTools

VehiclesHardware

TECHNOLOGY/ENVIRONMENT

Users

IntermediariesAgents

Managers

Customers

Employees

Engineers

Contractors

PEOPLE

Consultants

Buildings

Expectations

Relationships

Disputes

Suppliers

Competitors

GovernmentAgencies

Third PartiesBanks

Insurance

Web Communities

eBusinesses

Benefits

Sacrifices

Shareholders

Criminals

Prices

Value-cocreation from resource fusion (integration) and fission (specialization)


What is service science? A service system? The ABC’s?

Economics & Law

Design/ Cognitive Science Systems

Engineering

OperationsComputer Science/

Artificial Intelligence

Marketing

“a service system is ahuman-made system to improve provider-customer interactionsand value-cocreation outcomes,

by dynamically configuring resourceaccess via value propositions,

most often studied by many disciplines,one piece at a time.”

“service science isthe transdisciplinary study of

service systems &value-cocreation”

The ABC’s:The provider (A)

and a customer (B)transform a target (C)


Systems-Disciplines Framework: Depth & BreadthSystems that focus on flows of things Systems that governSystems that support people’s activities

transportation & supply chain water &

waste

food &products

energy & electricity

building & construction

healthcare& family

retail &hospitality banking

& finance

ICT &cloud

education &work

citysecure

statescale

nationlaws

social sciences

behavioral sciences

management sciences

political sciences

learning sciences

cognitive sciences

system sciences

information sciences

organization sciences

decision sciences

run professions

transform professions

innovate professions

e.g., econ & law

e.g., marketing

e.g., operations

e.g., public policy

e.g., game theory and strategy

e.g., psychology

e.g., industrial eng.

e.g., computer sci

e.g., knowledge mgmt

e.g., stats & design

e.g., knowledge worker

e.g., consultant

e.g., entrepreneur

stake

holders Customer

Provider

Authority

Competitors

resources

People

Technology

Information

Organizations

change History

(Data Analytics)

Future(Roadmap)

value

Run

Transform(Copy)

Innovate(Invent)

Observe Stakeholders (As-Is)

Observe Resource Access (As-Is)

Imagine Possibilities (Has-Been & Might-Become)

Realize Value (To-Be)

disciplines

systems


IBM operates in 170 countries around the globe

IBM has 426,000 employees worldwide

2011 Financials Revenue - $ 106.9B Net Income - $ 15.9B EPS - $ 13.44 Net Cash - $16.6B

22% of IBM’s revenue in Growth Market countries; growing at 11% in 2011

Number 1 in patent generation for 19 consecutive years ; 6,180 US patents awarded in 2011

More than 40% of IBM’s workforce conducts business away from an office

5 Nobel Laureates

9 time winner of the President’s National Medal of Technology & Innovation - latest award for Blue Gene Supercomputer

“Let’s Build a Smarter Planet"

The Smartest Machine On Earth

100 Years of Business & Innovation in 2011

IBM’s Leadership Changes

55% of IBM’s Workforce is New to the company in the last 5 years


Up-SkillCycle

University-Region1University-Region1

University-Region2University-Region2

= New Venture

= Acquisition

= High-Growth Acquisition/ New IBM BU (Growing)

= High-Productivity/ Mature IBM BU (Shrinking)

= IBMer moving from mature BU to acquisition

= IBMer moving intoIBMer on Campus role(help create graduateswith Smarter-Planet skills,help create Smarter Planetoriented new ventures;Refresh skills

= Graduates withSmarter Planet skills

IBMIBM


Sustainability/Resilience & Innovation: Local-p global-i supply chains

World as System of SystemsWorld (light blue - largest)Nations (green - large)States (dark blue - medium)Cities (yellow - small)Universities (red - smallest)

Cities as System of Systems-Transportation & Supply Chain-Water & Waste Recycling-Food & Products ((Nano)-Energy & Electricity-Information/ICT & Cloud (Info)-Buildings & Construction-Retail & Hospitality/Media & Entertainment-Banking & Finance-Healthcare & Family (Bio)-Education & Professions (Cogno)-Government (City, State, Nation)

Nations: Innovation Opportunities- GDP/Capita (level and growth rate)- Energy/Capita (fossil and renewable)

Developed MarketNations

(> $20K GDP/Capita)

Emerging MarketNations

(< $20K GDP/Capita)


Installation DeploymentIrruption

The Industrial Revolution

Age of Steam and Railways

Age of Steel, Electricityand Heavy EngineeringAge of Oil, Automobilesand Mass ProductionAge of Information and Telecommunications

Frenzy Synergy Maturity

Panic1797

Depression

1893

Crash

1929

Credit Crisis 2008

Coming period ofInstitutional Adjustment and Production Capital

1

2

3

4

5

Panic1847

1771

1829

1875

1908

1971

1873

1920

1974

1829

Crash

•Formation of Mfg. industry

•Repeal of Corn Laws opening trade

•Standards on gauge, time•Catalog sales companies •Economies of scale

•Urban development•Support for interventionism

•Build-out of Interstate highways

•IMF, World Bank, BIS

Source: Carlota Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages; (Edward Elar Publishers, 2003).

~250 years of infrastructure transformations


~100 years of US job transformations

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; McKinsey Global Institute Analysis


We need better frameworks, theories, and models of…

Four I’s– Infrastructure

– Individuals

– Institutions

– Information

Four Measures– Innovativeness

– Equity

– Sustainability

– Resiliency

Societal Infrastructure(Technologies & Environment)

Individuals(Skills)

Institutions(Rules, Jobs)

Cultural Information(Quality-of-Life Measures)


Service systems entities learn to apply knowledge

L

LearningTo Apply Knowledge

Exploitation Exploration

Run Transform Innovate

Operations

Maintenance

Insurance

Incremental

Radical

Super-Radical

Internal

External

Interaction

Copy It

Invent ItDo It

March, J.G. (1991) Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning. Organizational Science. 2(1).71-87.Sanford, L.S. (2006) Let go to grow: Escaping the commodity trap. Prentice Hall. New York, NY.


Service Science: Conceptual Framework

Resources: People, Organizations, Technology, Shared Information Resources: Individuals, Institutions, Infrastructure, Information Stakeholders: Customers, Providers, Authorities, Competitors Measures: Quality, Productivity, Compliance, Sustainable Innovation Access Rights: Own, Lease, Shared, Privileged

Ecology(Populations & Diversity)

Entities(Service Systems, both Individuals & Institutions)

Interactions(Service Networks,

link, nest, merge, divide)

Outcomes(Value Changes, both

beneficial and non-beneficial)

Value Proposition (Offers & Reconfigurations/

Incentives, Penalties & Risks)

Governance Mechanism (Rules & Constraints/

Incentives, Penalties & Risks)

Access Rights(Relationships of Entities)

Measures(Rankings of Entities)

Resources(Competences, Roles in Processes,

Specialized, Integrated/Holistic)

Stakeholders(Processes of Valuing,

Perspectives, Engagement)

Identity(Aspirations & Lifecycle/

History)

Reputation(Opportunities & Variety/

History)

prefer sustainable non-zero-sum

outcomes,i.e., win-win

win-win

lose-lose win-lose

lose-win

Spohrer, JC (2011) On looking into Vargo and Lusch's concept of generic actors in markets, or“It's all B2B …and beyond!” Industrial Marketing Management, 40(2), 199–201.


Time

ECOLOGY

14BBig Bang

(NaturalWorld)

10KCities

(Human-MadeWorld)

sun (energy)

writing(symbols and scribes,

stored memoryand knowledge)

earth(molecules &

stored energy)

written laws(governance and

stored control)

bacteria(single-cell life)

sponges(multi-cell life)

money(governed

transportable valuestored value,

“economic energy”)

universities(knowledge workers)

clams (neurons)trilobites (brains)

printing press (books)steam engine (work)200M

bees (socialdivision-of-labor)

60

transistor(routine

cognitive work)

Where is the “Real Science” - wonders to appreciate?In the many sciences that study the natural and human-made worlds…

Unraveling the mystery of evolving hierarchical-complexity in new populations…To discover the world’s architectures and mechanisms for computing non-zero-sum

Entity Architectures (ЄN) of nested, networked Holistic-Product-Service-Systems (HPSS)


Measuring Impact

SSME: IBM Icon of Progress & IBM Research Outstanding Accomplishment– Internal 10x return: CBM, IDG, SDM Pricing & Costing, BIW COBRA, SIMPLE, IoFT, Fringe, VCR

• Key was tools to model customers & IBM better• Also tools to shift routine physical, mental, interactional & identify synergistic new ventures• Alignment with Smarter Planet & Analytics (instrumented, interconnected, intelligent)• Alignment with Smarter Cities, Smarter Campus, Smarter Buildings (Holistic Service Systems)

– External: More than $1B in national investments in Service Innovation activities

– External: Increase conferences, journals, and publications

– External: Service Science SIGs in Professional Associations

– External: Course & Program Guidelines for T-shaped Professionals, 500+ institutions

– External: National Service Science Institutions, Books & Case Studies (Open Services Innovation)

Service Research, a Portfolio Approach– 1. Improve existing offerings (value propositions that can move the needle on KPI’s)

– 2. Create new offerings (for old and new customers)

– 3. Improve outcomes insourcing, outsourcing, acquisitions, divestitures (interconnect-fission-fusion)

– 4. For all three of the above, improve customer/partner capabilities (ratchet each other up)

– 5. For all four of the above, increase patents and service IP assets (some donated to open forums)

– 6. For all five of the above, increase publications and body-of-knowledge (professional associations)


Who I am

Director IBM Global University Programs since 2009– Global team works with 5000 university world wide (http://www.ibm.com/university)

– Research (Awards), Readiness (Skills), Recruiting, Revenue, Responsibility

– Transform “IBM on Campus” brand awareness (“Smarter Planet/Smarter Cities”)

– Create “Urban Service System” Research Centers & U-BEEs Founding Director of IBM's first Service Research group from 2003-2009

– Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA

– 10x ROI with four IBM outstanding and eleven accomplishment awards

– Improve existing offerings, create new, portfolio synergies, partners, patents, publications

– I know/work with service research pioneers from many academic disciplines• I advocate for Service Science, Management, Engineering, and Design (SSME+D)

– Short-term: Curriculum (T-shaped people, deep in an existing discipline)– Long-term: New transdiscipline and profession (awaiting CAD tool)

• I advocate for SRII (“one of the founding fathers”)• Co-editor of the “Handbook of Service Science” (Springer 2010)

Other background (late 90’s and before)– Founding CTO of IBM’s Venture Capital Relations group in Silicon Valley

– Apple Computer’s (Distinguished Engineer Scientist and Technologist) award (90’s)

– Ph.D. Computer Science/Artificial Intelligence from Yale University (80’s)

– B.S. in Physics from MIT (70’s)


Eleven levels of systems

Level AKA ~No. People ~No. Entities Example

0. Individual Person 1 10,000,000,000 Jim

1. Family Household 10 1,000,000,000 Spohrer’s

2.Neighborhood Street 100 100,000,000 Kensington

3. Community Block 1000 10,000,000 Bird Land

4. Urban-Zone District 10,000 1,000,000 SC Unified

5. Urban-Center City 100,0000 100,000 Santa Clara

6.Metro-Region County 1,000,000 10,000 SC County

7. State Province 10,000,000 1,000 CA

8. Nation Country 100,000,000 100 USA

9. Continent Union 1,000,000,000 10 NAFTA

10. Planet World 10,000,000,000 1 UN


Societal resiliency includes all levels

Matryoska dolls:Origin Japanese


What is the future? We can imagine many possibilities…

Kurzweilai.net

jim spohrer return to nbic(s)2 20120626 v2

Education

ibm corporation

regional development

ibm university programs

accelerating change

director ibm

s services

regional development

business value