job prospects, skill shortages and job outlook ceet annual conference friday 28 october 2005 labour...
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Job Prospects, Skill Shortages and Job Outlook
CEET Annual Conference
Friday 28 October 2005
Labour Market Strategies Group (LMSG)
Denis Hart
Overview of presentation
Five areas of discussion:
• Industry drivers of jobs growth
• Occupational employment trends
• Assessing job prospects for occupations
• Skill shortages and workforce ageing
• Job Outlook online - 2005 update
Industry employment projections
• Starting point for job prospects: Monash model employment forecasts for industries
• Recent employment trends: examine changes over long/medium and short term (DEWR trend data)
• Most ‘employment action’ in service industries: not modelled in as much detail as manufacturing
• Review Monash forecasts and prepare DEWR projections for around 160 industries (‘anchored’ by previous DEWR projections and Monash forecasts)
• DEWR industry employment projections are put into Monash model (new set of occupational projections)
Employment growth by industry 5 years to Aug 05 (‘000)
223.8
171.7
161.9
117.2
109.5
75.5
56.1
56.1
45.7
45.4
42.1
39.7
15.5
8.0
-2.5
-77.6
-79.5
-100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250
Retail Trade
Construction
Health & Community Services
Property and Business Services
Government Administration
Education
Personal and Other Services
Cultural and Recreation Services
Finance and Insurance
Mining
Accommodation, Cafes/Restaurants
Transport and Storage
Electricity, Gas and Water
Communication Services
Wholesale Trade
Manufacturing
Agriculture, Forestry/Fishing
Industry employment drivers
• Five key industries are expected to contribute more than four in five new jobs in the five years to 2009-10
• Strong growth is expected to continue for Property and Business Services and Health and Community Services (the two largest sources of new jobs)
• Easing in growth is projected for Retail and, more so, Construction, while continuing job gains are projected for Accommodation, Cafes/Restaurants
• Manufacturing employment is expected to fall, and there may be some pick-up for Agriculture
Industry drivers of jobs growthto 2009-10
Property and Business Services23%
Health & Community Services21%
Retail Trade21%
Construction10%
Accommodation, Cafes/Restaurants
8%
Personal and Other Services5%
Cultural and Recreation Services
4%
Education4%
Other industries4%
A tale of two industries
30.2
20.7
8.4
41.5
0.1
36.7
46.1
32.1
-3.0
55.4
22.9
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
May-95 May-96 May-97 May-98 May-99 May-00 May-01 May-02 May-03 May-04 May-05
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
Annual change '000 (LHS)
Employment '000 (RHS)
1.5
-3.2
26.2
-32.6
-45.6
73.9
-38.4
-1.1
0.2
-6.9-10.4
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
May-95 May-96 May-97 May-98 May-99 May-00 May-01 May-02 May-03 May-04 May-05
1040
1050
1060
1070
1080
1090
1100
1110
1120
1130
1140
1150
Annual change '000 (LHS)
Employment '000 (RHS)
Health and Community Services
Manufacturing
Employment growth by skill level (Aug 95 = 100)
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
150.0
160.0
Aug-95 Aug-96 Aug-97 Aug-98 Aug-99 Aug-00 Aug-01 Aug-02 Aug-03 Aug-04 Aug-05
Associate Professionals
Professionals
Elementary Clerical, Sales and Service
Tradespersons
Labourers
Occupational employment projections
• Examine Monash model forecasts (including ‘DEWR’ version), and actual employment growth trends
• Projections are ‘anchored’ by the Monash model forecasts and our previous projections (2000 to 2004)
• Factors considered: recent/historical employment growth, whether occupation is in growth industries, vacancy trends and qualitative information on occupations (eg new technology, structural change, changes in work organisation)
• Employment projections are ‘reconciled’ and converted into our occupational structure
• Prepare quantitative projections, but ‘publish’ decile ratings in Job Outlook (with guide as to range of growth rates)
Occupations with largest future job growth 5 years to 2009-10 (‘000)
83.0
35.4
33.2
29.9
26.7
24.6
21.7
18.2
18.0
17.3
17.0
15.6
14.2
13.8
13.7
11.7
11.3
11.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Sales Assistants
Office Assistants/Off ice Managers
Computing Professionals
General Clerks
Project & Program Administrators
Accountants
Registered Nurses
Receptionists
Sales and Marketing Managers
Checkout Operators and Cashiers
Child Care Workers
Bookkeepers
Waiters
Inquiry and Admissions Clerks
Financial Dealers and Brokers
Aged and Disabled Carers
Nurses Aides/Personal Care Assistants
Chefs
Projected job growth - selected Trades (% pa to 2009-10)
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.1
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
General/Landscape Gardeners
Floor Finishers
Boat Builders and Shipw rights
Aircraft Maintenance Engineers
Refrigeration/Aircon Mechanics
Hairdressers
Bakers and Pastrycooks
Cooks
Electricians
Plumbers
Painters and Decorators
Carpenters and Joiners
Bricklayers
Boilermakers and Welders
Automotive Electricians
JOB PROSPECTS• Projected employment growth - next five years
• Recent/historical employment trends (up to ten years)
• Whether the occupation is employed in growth industries
• Unemployment rate for the occupation
• Vacancy trends and graduate employment outcomes
• Whether there are skill shortages and workforce ageing
• Job turnover - workers leaving the occupation (job opportunities for new workers) and total vacancies
• Expected occupational developments - structural change and the impact of technology, including new products
• Prospects ratings for occupations: very good, good, above average, average and limited
Key indicators – Sales Assistants (graph)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Employment size
Full-time share
Full-time earnings
Unemployment
10 year growth
5 year growth
2 year growth
Future growth
In growth industries?
J ob turnover
Vacancy level
J ob prospects
Key indicators - Sales Assistants
Sales AssistantsEmployment Growth
17.9
6.2
11.1
4.5
0
5
10
15
20
Sales Assistants All Occupations
5 Years2 Years
%
The graph shows employment growth (per cent) over the past five years and two years for this occupation,
compared with all occupations.
409 406 392 405 418 454 491 499 524 525 511 533 541 567 585 602
0
200
400
600
800
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
Sales Assistants
000's
Employment Level
The graph shows the employment level ('000) for this occupation for
February, 1990 to 2005
Jobs with good prospectsAccountantBookkeepersBricklayersCabinetmakersChefs and CooksCustomer Service ManagersDentistsFinance ManagersFinancial Dealers/ BrokersForklift DriversGeneral/Landscape GardenersGeneral Medical PractitionersHairdressers
Human Resource ProfessionalsLegal ProfessionalsMotor MechanicsOccupational Therapists Office Assistants/ManagersPharmacistsPhysiotherapistsPolicy AnalystsProject/Program AdministratorsReceptionistsSales AssistantsSecurity Officers/GuardsWaiters
Skill shortages in AustraliaWhere are the skill shortages?• Shortages are widespread in the trades: eg automotive, chefs
and cooks, engineering, electrical and (some) construction trades• For professionals, skill shortages are mainly evident for nurses
and health specialists (eg pharmacist, physiotherapist), child care workers, accountants and civil engineers
Why do skill shortages matter?• Skill shortages can impede industry growth and innovation
(and cause upward pressure on wages) and affect the reliability and quality of services (eg health services)
Information on skill shortages can:• Help to understand the nature and causes of skill shortages,
develop industry-led and employment service strategies, guide education planning and target skilled migration
Ageing of the workforce % aged 45 years and over
15.7
16.6
15.6
19.1
17.4
19.4
22.0
22.4
25.4
20.3
31.1
35.0
26.8
6.3
6.2
9.1
7.6
11.7
11.5
12.2
12.9
10.9
17.8
13.5
10.8
20.8
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Chefs
Child Care Workers
Motor Mechanics
Electricians
Carpenters and Joiners
Accountants
ALL O CCUPATIO NS
Dentist
Metal Fitters/Machinists
Civil Engineers
Registered Nurses
Secondary School Teachers
General MedicalPractitioners
45-54
55 and over
Occupational ‘Wastage’
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
19-23 24-28 29-33 34-38 39-48 49+ Total
Age
%
Home Occupations Related Occupations Unrelated Occupations Unemployed Not in the Labour Force
Job Outlook - 2005 update• Job Outlook has 12 graphs on characteristics, trends
and prospects for each occupation and an overview page (around 5,000 graphs for all occupations)
• In addition to a ‘colour change’ and updating, there is a new graph showing employment growth by gender and full-time/part-time in the past few years)
• The median age in years has been added to the age profile graph
• Sample graphs are presented in the following slides and a brochure with sample graphs is available
• Available @ jobsearch.gov.au/joboutlook
Sales Assistants - overview
Job Outlook - navigation• The right-side navigation for Job Outlook (overview
page) has valuable links for each occupation:
Current vacancies at the local level (on AJS)Education and training courses for each region (on Australian Training)In-depth occupational information - O*Net from the United States (on Job Explorer)
• There are also links to information on jobs with good prospects, skill shortages and the educational profile`
• Hyperlinks can be used to deep link to occupations http://jobsearch.gov.au/joboutlook/default.aspx?PageId=AscoDesc&AscoCode=8211