john coggins/srp - coal-fired plants and renewables

John Coggins, ManagerResource Planning & Development

February 18, 2011

Can Renewables Replace Coal?

Electric Generation Terminology

NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11 2

Capacity

Generator capability at a moment in timeUnit of measure is “megawatt” (MW)

Energy

Generator output accumulated over a period of timeUnit of measure is “megawatt-hour” (MWh)

Energy = Capacity (MW) x Time (h)

Electric GenerationCost Categories

• Construction or capital costs– Cost to build a new generating facility

• Operating costs– Cost to operate and produce electrical energy

• Delivery costs– Cost to build transmission for delivery to

customers

• Integration costs– Cost to accommodate intermittency


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Meeting Customer Needs

NoonAM PM

Peak

Intermediate

Baseload


When available, renewables displace conventional resources

Customer Needs

NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Hours of the Day

MW

Summer Load Profile

5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Hours of the Day

MW

Peak Capacity Firming - Wind

Wind Generation ProfileMedian Day

Summer Load Profile

Capacity Firming

6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Hours of the Day

MW

Peak Capacity Firming - Solar

Capacity Firming

7

Solar Generation Profile

Summer Load Profile

Regulation

Source: Jay Apt CMU, 4.6 MW TEP Solar Array (Arizona)NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11 8

Integration Costs

• Peak Capacity Firming$15-34/MWh

Based on capital cost of a new gas turbine

• Regulation$4-9/MWh

Results from wind integration cost studies, 2009 Wind Technologies Market Report, U.S. Department of Energy


What about Storage?

TechnologyCapacity

MWCapital Cost

$/MWPros Cons

Flow Batteries 1-5 3.5 - 4.0Quick

responseHigh

maintenance

Lead Acid Batteries

1 3.0 - 4.0Quick

responseLimited life

cycle

Compressed Air Energy Storage

350 1.5 - 2.0Increases

gas turbine efficiency

No suitable AZ sites

Pumped Storage

500-1,000 2.0 - 3.1Quick

responseNo new AZ

sites

Frame CT 225 0.7 - 0.75 Quick start CO2

Aeroderivative CT

45-100 1.0 - 1.3 Quick start CO2


Conventional ResourcesBaseload Intermediate Peaking

Operating Characteristics

Continuous Flexible Highly Flexible

Dispatchable Yes Yes Yes

Technology Coal, Nuclear, and Natural Gas

Combined Cycle Natural Gas

Combustion Turbine Natural

Gas

Capital Costs (new capacity) Moderate-High Low-Moderate Low

Operating Costs Low Moderate High

Integration Costs

None None None


Renewable OptionsSolar PV Wind Geothermal

Operating Characteristics

Intermittent Intermittent Continuous

Dispatchable No No No*

Capital Costs High Moderate Moderate-High

Operating Costs

Low Low Low

Integration Costs

Moderate High None


* Limited Dispatchability


Generation Cost ComparisonTotal Levelized Cost

Existing Coal Wind Solar PV0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200Integration and Delivery

Base Levelized Cost

$/M

Wh


Generation Cost ComparisonTotal Levelized Cost

Existing Coal Wind Solar PV0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200Additional Environmental Costs

Integration and DeliveryBase Levelized Cost

$/M

Wh

Capacity FactorTypical Wind Resource


0%

100%

Hours

En

erg

y O

utp

ut

Capacity FactorTypical Wind Resource


0%

100%

Hours

En

erg

y O

utp

ut

28% Wind

0%

100%

Hours

En

erg

y O

utp

ut

28%

Capacity FactorWind Vs. Coal


90%

Wind

Coal

How Much Wind Capacity Is Needed To Replace NGS Energy Production?

• NGS• 2250 MW x 8760 hrs/yr x 90% CF• 17,739,000 MWh per year

• Wind Resource• 17,739,000 MWh 8760 hrs/yr 28% CF• 7232 MW of Wind


Energy = Capacity x Time x Capacity Factor

Wind - Capital Cost

• 7232 MW of Wind• Average Capital Cost: $1.54Million/MW


$1.54 Million/MW x 7232 MW = $11.1 Billion

Wind - Land Requirements

Land = 7232 MW x 158 Acres/MW

= 1.14 million acres or 1780 Sq. Miles


Wind - New Transmission Needs


Existing transmission built for 2250 MW3 new lines needed for 7232 MW of wind Est. $1.2 B costEst. 10 yr lead time

Summary – Wind Example

Capacity (MW) 2250 7232

Area (Sq. Miles) Plant + Mine 2.8 + 102 = 105 1780


Plant 1,130* 11,140

Transmission 0 1,260

Total 1,130 12,400

NGS Wind

Construction Costs ($ Millions)

* New Emission Controls

Summary – Solar PV Example

Capacity (MW) 2250 6983

Area (Sq. Miles) Plant + Mine 2.8 + 102 = 105 90


Plant 1,130* 19,930

Transmission 0 1,260

Total 1,130 21,190

NGS Solar PV

Construction Costs ($ Millions)

* New Emission Controls

Conclusions

• Intermittent renewables cannot meet operational needs

• Conventional resources are required• Renewables have high integration and

capital costs relative to existing coal• High capital costs are compounded when

building 3 times the capacity• Large land requirements• Extensive transmission requirements


So Where do Renewables Fit in?

• Renewables can supplement, but not replace, conventional resources – Reduce use of fossil fuels– Reduce emissions – Increase resource diversity– Help to decrease water consumption

• Costs for renewables (and storage) must continue to come down to expand implementation


Other Considerations

• If NGS is shut down for any reason, what resources would likely replace it?

• Where would the replacement resources be located?

• What would be the impact on the Navajo and Hopi people?


Where is Gas Generation Located in Arizona?


SRP Sustainable Portfolio


FY2006

FY2007

FY2008

FY2009

FY2010

FY2011

FY2012

FY2013

FY2014

FY2015

FY2016

FY2017

FY2018

FY2019

FY2020

FY2021

FY2022

FY2023

FY2024

FY20250%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Pe

rce

nt

of

Re

tail

Re

qu

ire

me

nts

Renewable Resources

Conservation - Energy Efficiency and Demand Response

Target

*Renewable and energy effi-ciency resources in excess of re-quirement will be banked for fu-ture use

Actual Projected

FY11 Resource Plan

Dry Lake Wind Phase I• Iberdrola Renewables• 63 MW• 18 miles northwest of

Snowflake, AZ, adjacent to State Route 377

• Located on a combination of private, State and BLM land

• Contract Term: 20 years• September 4, 2009

Commercial Operation

31NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11

Dry Lake Wind Phase II

• Iberdrola Renewables• 64 MW• 3 miles east of Phase I• Contract Term: 20 years• November 28, 2010

Commercial Operation


• Energy Source• 50 MW • Imperial Valley, CA• Contract Term: 30 years

• Status:– Construction began in

June – Commercial operation

estimated Q2 2012

• SRP has rights to additional development

Hudson Ranch Geothermal Phase I


Copper Crossing Solar PV• Iberdrola Renewables• 20 MW

– SunPower polycrystalline panels

– Single axis tracking

• Florence, AZ• Contract Term: 25

years

• Status:– Contracts executed– Construction underway– Commercial operation estimated Q3 2011


Example SRP Facilities

• Tempe Service Center (75 kW)

• Power Operations Building (75 kW)

• Newly constructed call center in Pinal County LEED Certified (180 kW)


City PartnershipsScottsdale Senior Center

Phoenix Pecos Park Community Center

Phoenix Pecos Park & RideU.S. Bureau of Reclamation


Small Commercial Customer Systems

• CDC Pools– 9.2 kW system– Completed 2006

• Optima– 8 kW system– Completed 2006

• Body Sculpting Center• 29 kW system– Completed 2007

• Integrity Building Corp.– 19 kW system– Completed 2008


Gatorade Distribution Center• Located on

Gatorade/PepsiCo distribution center in Tolleson

• 500 kW solar electric system containing 2,448 solar panels

• System spans 68,000 sq ft

• Estimated CO2 reductions of approximately 392 metric tons per year

• Operational October 2008


• EarthWise Energy allows customers to fund solar energy projects in the community

• $3 per month

• 5,500 residential customers and 100 business customers

• New projects – Nina Mason Pulliam Rio Salado Audubon Education Center, Liberty Wildlife, Sunshine Acres Children’s Home

EarthWise Energy Desert Botanical Gardens

The Phoenix Zoo

Habitat for Humanity


Solar for Schools • Funding from grant program

to complete installation and ten-year maintenance of solar PV systems on Valley schools

• Educational materials and educator training related to solar energy

• System will allow students to monitor energy output and use data for “real-world” math learning and application



Wind Farm’s Second Phase Is Completed And Working By Tammy Gray-Searles In late December, the second phase of Dry Lake Wind Farm was completed and quietly began operation. According to Iberdrola public relations representative Jan Johnson, the testing phase is complete and power is being sold to Salt River Project (SRP). Construction was completed slightly ahead of schedule, and the turbines began running on Dec. 22. “The weather was cooperative over the construction season,” Johnson noted. “Even the wind was cooperative and didn’t blow too hard when we needed to use the cranes.” A total of 31 Suzlon turbines were constructed at the site. They are capable of generating up to 65 megawatts. Johnson noted that the energy produced is enough to power about 9,000 “typical homes served.” According to Iberdrola Business Developer Chris Bergen, the second phase represents a $110 million investment by the company. The latest addition to the wind farm is located just west of Highway 77, about two miles north of the Snowflake town limits, or about five miles north of the start of the business district. In relation to the first phase, it is about four miles southeast of the existing set of turbines. If the two phases were mapped out as squares on a chessboard, they would be diagonal to each other, touching at one corner. Phase II encompasses approximately 10,240 acres. Completion of the second phase just more than doubles the total number of wind turbines in the project, bringing the total to 61. The first phase of the project, which included 30 turbines, was completed in August 2009. According to Johnson, the second phase adds five more full-time permanent jobs. About 200 workers were employed during the construction phase. Power from both phases is sold to SRP as part of a contract between the companies. Now that the second phase is complete, Johnson noted that Iberdrola is making plans for a third phase of construction. “It is in permitting,” she said. “We’re hoping to have additional phases.”

john coggins/srp - coal-fired plants and renewables

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