john deutch lecture on oil gas, 2014

Upload: effe-bi

Post on 02-Jun-2018

224 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    1/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    ;#-7") 5#%" &- 7?" "(#-#@A /-B +#5"&C- /D/&5) E?/7 &) B&D"5"-7 /F#G7 ,-(#-."-'#-/% 01!H I?" 2#57? J@"5&(/- K

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    2/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    0%B Y&"3 '() *+,-.+ /01,2/301

    3,43045/.506 74 8766+0 9.15 .46

    . :0; ,+60/1? @./*0 03,4,,A0+011+B

    60A046045 ,4 ,7+ .46 743/0.174*+B*.1 70 /0.+ A/730 ,: '() ;7++740D75.-+B 743/0.10?

    E.52/.+ ).1 8./F051 740D75.-+B/0*7,4.+ G 92/,A0H I17.H E,/5>I

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    3/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    L@$%&(/'#-) #+ 7?" (?/-C") 940/*BH 01A037.++B '()H ;7++ 3,4K420 5, -0 F0B 5, 03,4,0/0 ;7++ */0.50/ 607V 74 040/*B 210H 0?* 4.52/.+ *.1 :,/ 0+035/73 A,;0/ *040/.K,4?

    W7440/ ( @,10/ .

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    4/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    W>.5 71 67T0/045 .-,25 J43,4D04K,4.+ '()X

    !"#$"#$!% !"#

    O

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    5/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    Z""$ )(/%" #+ $5#BG('#- &-@&-BP

    !"#$"#$!% Y !"#

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    6/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    K-#5@#G) )G5+/(" #$"5/'#-)

    !"#$"#$!% Z !"#

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    7/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    !"#$"#$!% [

    L-&'/% K-.&5#-@"-7/% ;#-("5- [ \AB5/G%&( +5/(7G5&-C ]G&B (#-7/B5&-6&-C 3/7"5 ^ -#7 7?" @/M#5 "-.&5#-@"-7/% &))G"

    !"#

    _G%% B&)(%#)G5" #+ /%% /BB&'.") ^ 7A$" /-B `G/-'7A

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    8/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    :5&-(&$/%K-.&5#-@"-7/%

    &@$/(7)=a E/7"5 G/%&7Ab J&5 `G/%&7Ac ;#@@G-&7A &@$/(7)

    d e/-B[G)" &@$/(7)f L-BG("B N"&)@&(&7A

    !"#$"#$!% \ !"#

    Z"A $#&-7)= 2#7 MG)7 ?AB5/G%&(

    +5/(7G5&-C J%% "-.&5#-@"-7/%

    &@$/(7) #+ $5#BG('#-)?#G%B F" &-(%GB"B

    R&D"5"-7 7?/-(#-."-'#-/%$5#BG('#-

    K

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    9/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    )+,-.+ 8./F051

    !"#$"#$!% !"#

    ]

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    10/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    !"#$"#$!% !$ !"#

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    11/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    !"#$"#$!% !"# !!

    9/$&B C5#37? #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/%01! $5#BG('#- &- ,N

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    12/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    !"#$"#$!% !#

    K

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    13/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    !"#$"#$!% !"# !%9SI ^240 #$!% 01K

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    14/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    !"#$%" '()#*+,( -%)( .#/(01%" 2*3( 40,(+/%501() 6%+3(

    @./*0 D./7.K,4 ;75>74 /01,2/30 A+.B G '7+").1"W.50/? 94D7/,42*0 .46 0_A0417D0 1, A.30 ,: 3,

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    15/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    L@$%&(/'#-) +#5 C%#F/% #&% 1 C/) @/56"7) C>0 E,/5> I,3F >.1 4,5 .46 ;7++ 4,5H -B 75 10+:H /012+5 74

    . 3/.50/74* ,: 5>0 5>0 ;,/+6 ,7+ A/730?

    C>0 /0+.KD0+B >7*> +0D0+1 ,: *+,-.+ 1A./0 A/,623K,4 3.A.375BH EIA/,623K,4 */,;5>H .46 1+,;0/ *+,-.+ 60 A,7451 5, A,504K.+,7+ A/730 6/,A 5, 5>0 /.4*0 ,: a[$ b a]$ A0/ -.//0+?

    )+,-.+ 1A./0 3.A.375B >.1 6.0T035 G 5>0 D.+20 ,: 5>07/ 3,4D04K,4.+ '() /01,2/301 >.D0 *,40 6,;4?

    9_A0417D0 3,4D04K,4.+ '() A/,=0351 ./0 4,; 2460/;.50/e I215/.+7.4Mj8H )2+: ,: 80_73, 600A ,T 1>,/0H .46 I/K3 ,7+?

    !"#$"#$!% !"# !Y

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    16/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    4/M#5 "(#-#@&( `G")'#-) W7++ 4.52/.+ *.1 A/7301 .5 ;7++

    743/0.10 4.52/.+ *.1 6073+01X ).1 5, @7l2761 L)C@P 5/.41:,/< MNO 5, MN%'N?

    !"#$"#$!% !"# !Z

    !

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    17/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    )0,A,+7K3.+ S

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    18/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    \#3 `G&(6%A 3&%% -"3 ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)$5#BG('#- (#@" #- %&-"H

    S4 J?R? /01,2/30 -0+,4*1 5, +.46 ,;40/ G 4,5 5>0 *,D0/4

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    19/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    ;?/-C") &- ,PNP K-"5CA :#%&(A

    J?R? L.46 E?I?P ;7++ >.D0 5>0 A,504K.+ 5, 0_A,/5 ,7+H *.1 L.46 3,.+P1, J?R? ;7++ -0 .4*01 -015 2460/15,,6 -B 3,41760/74* 3,245/B 0_.

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    20/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    N&< (#G-75A "

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    21/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    L5/- kQ S11201e E23+0./ ;0.A,41 A/,*/.

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    22/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    9G))&/

    g2117.4 03,4,7*>+B 60A046045 ,4 '() 0_A,/51?

    9.150/4 92/,A0H 01A037.++B )0/ A/7374* 7460_06 5, ,7+? C>71 60A0460430 74n204301 5>0:,/07*4 A,+73B A,17K,4 ,: )0/0/ 3,245/701?

    `7D0/175B ,: 12AA+B +0D0/.*01 92/,A0o1 -./*.7474* A,17K,4?

    @,;0/ A/7301

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    23/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    N/GB& J5/F&/ )/0.5 /71F :/,< +,;0/ ,7+ .46 *.1 A/7301? k713.+ -/0.F0D04 :,/ p74*6,< 1.76 5, -0 a]$ A0/ -.//0+ LS8k 01K

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    24/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    ;?&-/ M>74.o1 03,4, /0l27/01 743/0.174* 3,412

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    25/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    Y"-"gG"%/ h040i20+. >.1 -004 . 5>,/4

    74 5>0 J?R? 1760 :,/ . +,4*K.1 A/,D7606 ,7+5, M./7--0.4 .46 M045/.+I0 /0*7,4?

    Q/,1A0351 5>.5 ht 0_A,/51 5,/0*7,4 ;7++ -0 603+740 7440_5 10D0/.+ B0./1?

    !"#$"#$!% !"# #Y

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    26/27

  • 8/11/2019 John Deutch Lecture on Oil Gas, 2014

    27/27

    !"#$#%&'() #+ ,-(#-."-'#-/% 0&% 1 !/)2"3 4/56"7)8 2"3 9&)6)8 2"3 :#%&(&")

    !"#$"#$!% #[ !"#