john lee_ china's rise and the road to war - wsj
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OPINION ASIA August 5, 2010
China's Rise and the Road to WarAs with Germany a century ago, an emerging power is overestimating its capabilities.
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By JOHN LEE
Four years beforeWorld War I, British author and politician Norman Angell published
"The Great Illusion," arguing that military conquests had become obsolete between
modern economies. Many policy makers use the same logic today to predict that
China and the United States can avoid war. Like their forebears, they may be wrong.
That's the implicit argument of University of Chicago political scientist John
Mearsheimer, who delivered the annual Michael Hintze Lecture at Sydney University
this week. Politics, rather than economics, will decisively shape the future of Asia just
as it did Europe in the previous century, he believes. China's ascent is likely to spark
an intense security competition with the U.S., leading to the strong possibility ofwar
between the world's two biggest economies.
This argument runs counter to today's conventional wisdom, which sees a benign
future for U.S.-China relations. This view, still popular in Washington, is based on the
idea that the U.S. can manage China by offering Beijing incentives to rise as a
"responsible stakeholder" within the current U.S.-led global order. Like the educated
and well-heeled elites in Europe whom Angell chronicled and who a century ago
exhibited extreme reluctance to imagine the outbreak of major war, today's policy
makers can't fathom war in the Pacific.
Yet history suggests that Mr.
Mearsheimer's warnings should be
heeded. Prior to World War I, Angell's
logicthat the disruption to theinternational credit and trading system
would mean that everyone loses in the
event of warwas irrefutable. Prior to
1914, annual trade volumes of Britain,
Germany and France was 52%, 38%
and 54% of GDP respectively, with
much of the trade being between these
great powers. By 1913, Britain had
become the leading market for German exports, with both countries largely benefitting
from the economic relationship. In the decade leading to the Great War, trade and
capital flows between these great powers increased by an estimated 65% and 84%,
respectively. Yet, economic interdependence was not enough to prevent the tragic
escalation of events that followed the assassination of Austria's Archduke Franz
Ferdinand.
Today, China's self-proclaimed and widely accepted "peaceful development" similarly
appears to be based on solid economic ground. China has re-emerged as a great
trading nation but remains a poor country in terms of GDP per capita. China's export
Associa ted Press
The People's Liberation Army Navy conductinglive-fire drills in the South China Sea, July 29.
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Opinion
sector is responsible for the creation of hundreds of millions of jobs, and the country
still remains deeply dependent on outside technology and know-how. To continue the
country's rapid economic development, the Chinese Communist Party needs a
peaceful and stable environment in Asia. On the U.S. side, no one in Washington
wants to see a conflict with China erupt, especially at a time when America is fighting
two wars and worries about Iran's intentions.
Yet Angell's optimism was ultimately wrong because it was based on an incomplete
account of driving forces behind relations between the great powers. While the
economic relationship created powerful incentives for peace, Angell did not take
seriously the intense strategic competitionparticularly the growing naval rivalry
between status quo powers like Britain and a rapidly rising and revisionist power like
Germany. Nor did Angell's account allow for the human factor of strategic missteps
and miscalculationsparticularly by Germany's Kaiser Wilhelm IIthat eventually
plunged Europe into war.
What are the lessons for Asia? While economic interdependence and American
attempts to "manage" China's rise has so far succeeded in preventing war, the recent
diplomatic conflagration over the Chinese reiteration that its claims in the South China
Sea are part of Beijing's "core interests" validates what scholars such as Aaron
Friedberg have been saying for a decade: East Asia today has the potential to
recreate the European situation at the turn of the previous century. When it comes to
strategic goals, China is re-entering into a regional order not of its making after
decades of self-imposed isolation. By virtue of Beijing's fundamental dissatisfaction
with several of its land and maritime borders, it is a revisionist power. As it rises, the
desperation to secure its "core interests" will deepen.
Chinese grand strategy since the days of former leader Deng Xiaoping has been to
avoid conflict with a much more formidable competitor (i.e., America) while China
builds its "comprehensive national power." In favor of "winning Asia without fighting,"
as Chinese General Ma Xiaotian once put it, are many of the older generation of
leaders who see caution as prudence, even if they relentlessly seek "windows of
opportunity" to extend Beijing's power at the expense of America's. They still
remember the suffering and humiliation of the Mao Zedong years, when an isolated
China tried to achieve too much too quickly.
Yet, as history reaffirms, a peace built on continued political skill, dexterity and
restraint rather than a harmony of strategic interest is inherently precarious. Without
personal experience of China's recent traumatic history, future generations of leaders
will be more confident and assertive. Even now, emerging Communist Party and
People's Liberation Army leaders argue that China is moving too slowly on securing
its foreign-policy goals. The danger is that, just as Germany did in Europe a century
ago, China's overestimation of its own capabilities, and underestimation of American
strengths and resolvecombined with strategic dissatisfaction and impatienceis
the fast way toward disastrous miscalculation and error.
Several years before the outbreak of the Great War, Kaiser Wilhelm II publicly
declared that he considered the prospect of war with Britain "a most unimaginable
thing." Despite deep economic interdependence, Europe could not avert a disaster.
Leaders in Washington and throughout Asia should not commit the same failure of
imagination.
Mr. Lee is a foreign-policy fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies in Sydney, a
visiting scholar at the Hudson Institute in Washington and the author of "Will China
Fail?" (CIS, 2007).
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7/30/2019 John Lee_ China's Rise and the Road to War - WSJ
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4/8/13 John Lee: China's Rise and the Road to War - WSJ.com
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