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    Subscr ibe Log InU.S. EDITION Thursday, August 5, 2010

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    OPINION ASIA August 5, 2010

    China's Rise and the Road to WarAs with Germany a century ago, an emerging power is overestimating its capabilities.

    Editorials Features Columns Political Diary Peggy Noonan's Blog Book Reviews Leisure & Arts Letters to the Editor

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    By JOHN LEE

    Four years beforeWorld War I, British author and politician Norman Angell published

    "The Great Illusion," arguing that military conquests had become obsolete between

    modern economies. Many policy makers use the same logic today to predict that

    China and the United States can avoid war. Like their forebears, they may be wrong.

    That's the implicit argument of University of Chicago political scientist John

    Mearsheimer, who delivered the annual Michael Hintze Lecture at Sydney University

    this week. Politics, rather than economics, will decisively shape the future of Asia just

    as it did Europe in the previous century, he believes. China's ascent is likely to spark

    an intense security competition with the U.S., leading to the strong possibility ofwar

    between the world's two biggest economies.

    This argument runs counter to today's conventional wisdom, which sees a benign

    future for U.S.-China relations. This view, still popular in Washington, is based on the

    idea that the U.S. can manage China by offering Beijing incentives to rise as a

    "responsible stakeholder" within the current U.S.-led global order. Like the educated

    and well-heeled elites in Europe whom Angell chronicled and who a century ago

    exhibited extreme reluctance to imagine the outbreak of major war, today's policy

    makers can't fathom war in the Pacific.

    Yet history suggests that Mr.

    Mearsheimer's warnings should be

    heeded. Prior to World War I, Angell's

    logicthat the disruption to theinternational credit and trading system

    would mean that everyone loses in the

    event of warwas irrefutable. Prior to

    1914, annual trade volumes of Britain,

    Germany and France was 52%, 38%

    and 54% of GDP respectively, with

    much of the trade being between these

    great powers. By 1913, Britain had

    become the leading market for German exports, with both countries largely benefitting

    from the economic relationship. In the decade leading to the Great War, trade and

    capital flows between these great powers increased by an estimated 65% and 84%,

    respectively. Yet, economic interdependence was not enough to prevent the tragic

    escalation of events that followed the assassination of Austria's Archduke Franz

    Ferdinand.

    Today, China's self-proclaimed and widely accepted "peaceful development" similarly

    appears to be based on solid economic ground. China has re-emerged as a great

    trading nation but remains a poor country in terms of GDP per capita. China's export

    Associa ted Press

    The People's Liberation Army Navy conductinglive-fire drills in the South China Sea, July 29.

    Enlarge Image

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    Opinion

    sector is responsible for the creation of hundreds of millions of jobs, and the country

    still remains deeply dependent on outside technology and know-how. To continue the

    country's rapid economic development, the Chinese Communist Party needs a

    peaceful and stable environment in Asia. On the U.S. side, no one in Washington

    wants to see a conflict with China erupt, especially at a time when America is fighting

    two wars and worries about Iran's intentions.

    Yet Angell's optimism was ultimately wrong because it was based on an incomplete

    account of driving forces behind relations between the great powers. While the

    economic relationship created powerful incentives for peace, Angell did not take

    seriously the intense strategic competitionparticularly the growing naval rivalry

    between status quo powers like Britain and a rapidly rising and revisionist power like

    Germany. Nor did Angell's account allow for the human factor of strategic missteps

    and miscalculationsparticularly by Germany's Kaiser Wilhelm IIthat eventually

    plunged Europe into war.

    What are the lessons for Asia? While economic interdependence and American

    attempts to "manage" China's rise has so far succeeded in preventing war, the recent

    diplomatic conflagration over the Chinese reiteration that its claims in the South China

    Sea are part of Beijing's "core interests" validates what scholars such as Aaron

    Friedberg have been saying for a decade: East Asia today has the potential to

    recreate the European situation at the turn of the previous century. When it comes to

    strategic goals, China is re-entering into a regional order not of its making after

    decades of self-imposed isolation. By virtue of Beijing's fundamental dissatisfaction

    with several of its land and maritime borders, it is a revisionist power. As it rises, the

    desperation to secure its "core interests" will deepen.

    Chinese grand strategy since the days of former leader Deng Xiaoping has been to

    avoid conflict with a much more formidable competitor (i.e., America) while China

    builds its "comprehensive national power." In favor of "winning Asia without fighting,"

    as Chinese General Ma Xiaotian once put it, are many of the older generation of

    leaders who see caution as prudence, even if they relentlessly seek "windows of

    opportunity" to extend Beijing's power at the expense of America's. They still

    remember the suffering and humiliation of the Mao Zedong years, when an isolated

    China tried to achieve too much too quickly.

    Yet, as history reaffirms, a peace built on continued political skill, dexterity and

    restraint rather than a harmony of strategic interest is inherently precarious. Without

    personal experience of China's recent traumatic history, future generations of leaders

    will be more confident and assertive. Even now, emerging Communist Party and

    People's Liberation Army leaders argue that China is moving too slowly on securing

    its foreign-policy goals. The danger is that, just as Germany did in Europe a century

    ago, China's overestimation of its own capabilities, and underestimation of American

    strengths and resolvecombined with strategic dissatisfaction and impatienceis

    the fast way toward disastrous miscalculation and error.

    Several years before the outbreak of the Great War, Kaiser Wilhelm II publicly

    declared that he considered the prospect of war with Britain "a most unimaginable

    thing." Despite deep economic interdependence, Europe could not avert a disaster.

    Leaders in Washington and throughout Asia should not commit the same failure of

    imagination.

    Mr. Lee is a foreign-policy fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies in Sydney, a

    visiting scholar at the Hudson Institute in Washington and the author of "Will China

    Fail?" (CIS, 2007).

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