jp morgan - indonesia coal mining 2011

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Asia Pacific Equity Research13 January 2011

Indonesia coal miningCoal stocks to outperform during rising inflation; weupgrade Adaro, raise PTs for other stocks on the back

of new coal price assumption

Indonesia

Mining

Stevanus Juanda AC

(62-21) 5291 8574

[email protected]

PT J.P. Morgan Securities Indonesia

See page 34 for analyst certification and important disc losures, including non-US analyst d isclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm mhave a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making thinvestment decision.

JAKMINE index performance

75.0

95.0

115.0

135.0

155.0

175.0

Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-1

JAKMINE Rebased JCI Rebased

Source: Bloomberg

Price Performance1-M 3-M 12-

Absolute (%) 6.7 20.2 39Relative (%) 12.4 21.8 4.

Source: Bloomberg

• Incorporate revised J.P. Morgan coal price assumption: Weincorporate the revised J.P. Morgan FY11 coal price estimate ofUS$120/ton (from US$105/ton) into our model. With this our earningsestimates increase by an average of 18%, excluding the effect fromadjustments that incorporate lower-than-expected 9M10 results. Theadjustments from the new coal price also result in a strong earnings

growth expectation of 79% Y/Y for FY11.

• Coal stocks as inflation hedge: During the high inflation period ofFY05, the JAKMINE index outperformed the JCI by 8.6%. In addition,

our analysis of the Indonesian coal sector over the past few days hasindicated an outperformance. As indicated in our recent report etitled Indonesia Equity Strategy: What works when inflation is rising? byAditya Srinath, published on 06 January 2011, we expect the energysector to outperform in the next three to six months due to risinginflation. We believe coal stocks could outperform in this environment.

• Upgrade ADRO from UW to N; others unchanged: The following positive and negative drivers indicate a balanced view on ADRO.Positive factors: (1) Rainy weather in Indonesia should support the coal price; (2) Potential improvement in ADRO’s operation. Neutral factors: ADRO earnings estimates are on par with the Street’s estimates, and ourfair value estimate implies limited upside. Negative factors: (1)

Receding floods in Australia could lead to softer coal prices; (2) At 16.4xFY11E P/E, ADRO is one of the highest priced Indonesia coal stocks vs.the industry average of 15.1x. We upgrade ADRO from UW to N andraise our Dec-11 price target from Rp2,000 to Rp2,800. We keep ourratings for the other coal names unchanged, as the upside implied by ournew price targets still support our current ratings, in our view.

• Positive on the coal sector; INDY, PTBA our top picks: We reiterateour positive view on the coal sector, with INDY and PTBA being our top picks due to the following factors. (1) INDY: PTRO spinoff as catalystand low valuation at FY11E 11.3x compared to the industry’s 15.1x.PTBA: The start of construction at Transpacific Railway in FY11, which

could cause a re-rating of PTBA’s share price.


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Stevanus Juanda(62-21) 5291 [email protected]

Investment summaryJ.P. Morgan’s global coal team raised its FY11 thermal coal price estimate from

US$101/ton to US$120/ton.

Table 1: Indo Coal Mining: New and old thermal coal assumptions

US$/ton

Q4-10 CY10 Q1-11E Q2-11E Q3-11E Q4-11E CY11E CY12E CY13E LTThermal new (Newcastle) 105.9 98.5 120.0 125.0 120.0 115.0 120.0 120.0 110.0 90.0Thermal old (Newcastle) 100.0 95.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 105.0 101.0 105.0 105.0 90.0Difference (%) 5.9% 3.7% 26.3% 25.0% 14.3% 9.5% 18.8% 14.3% 4.8% 0.0%

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

As a result, we lift our FY11 earnings estimates for Indonesian thermal coal

companies by 18.4% on average, excluding the companies with other adjustments.

Table 2: Indo Coal Mining: New and orig inal EPS forecasts

Rp, year-end December

New EPS Old EPS Difference (%)Comp any Name FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12EBumi Resources 115 206 246 148 241 273 -22.0% -14.6% -10.0%Tambang Bukit Asam 861 1,435 1,704 852 1,470 1,779 1.0% -2.4% -4.2%Indo Tambang Raya 2,202 3,561 4,619 2,071 3,198 3,647 6.3% 11.4% 26.7% Adaro Energy 69 160 203 70 124 144 -0.8% 29.0% 40.9%Berau Coal Energy 22 32 47 26 33 35 -15.3% -0.5% 33.3%Indika Energy 232 440 421 210 324 295 10.5% 35.8% 42.5%

Average 4.2% 18.4% 26.4%


The extension of our PT time horizon to Dec-11 and adjustment to our coal price

assumptions resulted in us raising our PTs by 21.7% on average for all of thecompanies under our coverage.

Table 3: Indo Coal Mining: Revisions to our price targets

Rp per share, %

Price Dec-11 PT Upsid e Old PT Adju stmentPTBA 23,200 29,000 25.0% 27,000 7.4% ADRO 2,775 2,800 0.9% 2,000 40.0%INDY 5,200 6,300 21.2% 5,000 26.0%ITMG 55,500 63,000 13.5% 54,200 16.2%JCI 3,555 4,100 15.3% 21.7%


However, we are still below the consensus in our earnings forecasts. (Note:Historically, reported results have been lower than consensus estimates.)

Table 4: Indo Coal Mining: J.P. Morgan forecasts vs . consensus fo recasts

Rp

JPM EPS Consensus EPS Difference (%)Comp any Name FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12EBUMI 115 206 246 144 261 315 -20.0% -21.2% -22.0%Tambang Bukit Asam 861 1,435 1,704 945 1,506 1,757 -8.9% -4.7% -3.0%Indo Tambang Raya 2,202 3,561 4,619 2,367 4,014 4,743 -7.0% -11.3% -2.6% Adaro Energy 69 160 203 89 165 203 -22.0% -3.1% 0.0%Berau Coal Energy 22 32 47 26 33 35 -15.4% -0.5% 33.3%Indika Energy 232 440 421 237 392 441 -2.1% 12.1% -4.6%

Average -12.6% -4.8% 0.2%

Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan estimates.


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The upwards earnings adjustments resulted in a potential 79.4% Y/Y growth in EPS

for FY11E.

Table 5: Indo Coal Min ing: FY11E and FY12E EPS growt h`

%

Company Name FY11E grow th FY12E grow thBumi Resources 78.7% 19.3%Tambang Bukit Asam 66.7% 18.7%Indo Tambang Raya 61.7% 29.7% Adaro Energy 131.4% 26.7%Berau Coal Energy 48.2% 44.9%Indika Energy 89.4% -4.3%

Average 79.4% 22.5%


The performance of Indonesia coal names during an environment of the rising

inflation over the past few days shows that they can still hold their grounds in terms

of relative performance. In FY05, when inflation surged by 17.2%, the JAKMINEindex outperformed the JCI. Also, as indicated in a recent report, entitled Indonesia

Equity Strategy: What works when inflation is rising? by Aditya Srinath, published

on 06 January 2011, we believe the energy sector will outperform over the next three

to six months after the period rising inflation. As a result, we believe coal stocks

could outperform during this period of rising inflation.

Table 6: Indo Coal Mining : Relative perform ance of Indon esia coal name (6 Jan-11 to 11 Jan-11)

%

06-Jan-11 to 06-Jan-11 to 06-Jan-11 to 06-Jan-11 to 6-Jan-1112-Jan-11 11-Jan-11 10-Jan-11 7-Jan-11

Bumi Resources -6.1% -9.9% -7.6% -4.6% 0.0%Tambang Bukit Asam -0.4% -4.7% -2.8% -1.7% 0.0%

Indo Tambang Raya -1.6% -5.9% -6.3% -3.6% 0.0% Adaro Energy -5.4% -10.8% -9.9% -2.7% 0.0%Berau Coal Energy -1.8% -3.6% -1.8% -1.8% 0.0%Indika Energy -4.3% -11.5% -9.6% -4.8% 0.0%

Average Indus try -3.3% -7.8% -6.3% -3.2% 0.0%JCI -4.9% -7.5% -6.9% -2.8% 0.0%

Source: Bloomberg

Without the multiple of BYAN of 33x in FY11E, which we deemed to be an outlier,

the average industry FY11E P/E is 15.1x, while with BYAN it is 17.7x FY11E.

Table 7: Indo Coal Mining: Relative valuation s

Rp per share, x, %

JPM Clsg Mkt Cap P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Div Yield (%)Ticker Ratin g Pric e (LC) (US$MM) FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E

BUMI* - net Tata's -- 3,075 6,961 27.0 14.9 12.5 9.6 6.5 5.6 0.8 1.1 2.0PTBA OW 23,100 5,916 26.8 16.1 13.6 21.1 10.8 8.8 2.4 4.0 4.7ITMG N 54,600 6,855 24.8 15.3 11.8 14.9 10.2 7.6 2.9 2.4 3.9 ADRO N 2,625 9,329 38.0 16.4 12.9 12.8 7.8 6.5 2.1 1.1 2.4BRAU* -- 540 2,094 24.7 16.7 11.5 8.6 6.9 5.2 1.4 1.2 1.8BYAN NR 17,900 6,630 72.6 33.0 31.2 36.0 17.5 18.5 0.6 2.1 2.8INDY - With Kideco OW 4,975 2,878 21.4 11.3 11.8 14.8 11.8 10.6 1.4 2.3 4.4

Average w o BYA N 27.1 15.1 12.4 13.6 9.0 7.4 1.8 2.0 3.2 Average 33.6 17.7 15.0 16.8 10.2 9.0 1.7 2.0 3.2

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: Closing price as of 12 Jan 2011. Bloomberg consensus estimates for NR stocks. *Under applicable law and/or JPMorgan Chase & Co policy, the

J.P. Morgan rating for this company has been removed.


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Adaro Energy

Large upwards earnings adjustment: ADRO’s sensitivity to coal prices is one of

the highest in the industry. The upward adjustment in our coal price assumption from

US$101/ton to US$120/ton in FY11 causes us to raise our FY11E EPS by 29.0%

from Rp124 to Rp160. Adaro’s share price has outperformed the JCI by 27.8% in the

past three months.

Positive and negative drivers: We believe the following factors will cancel each

other out and cause ADRO share price to perform in line with its peers. Positives: (1)

Rainy weather in Indonesia should provide support to the coal price; (2) potential

improvement in ADRO’s operations. Neutral: Currently our earnings estimates for

ADRO are on par with the Street’s forecasts. Negatives: (1) Receding floods in

Australia softening coal prices ; (2) At 16.4x FY11E P/E, ADRO is one of the most

highly priced coal stocks in Indonesia, compared with the industry P/E of 15.1x.

FY11E profit per ton of US$26: The incorporation of the new coal price of

US$120/ton (from US$101/ton) yields us a fair value estimate of Rp2,800. With the

coal price assumption right now at US$120/ton, we expect that ADRO’s operating

profit per ton could now reach US$26 in FY11, compared with US$29 in FY09,

based on the FY08 coal price of US$125/ton. (Note: Realization of coal price usually

has a 6-to-12-month lag).

Upgrade to Neutral: With our FY11E profit now on par with the consensus

forecast, and given our fair value estimate of Rp2,800, we upgrade ADRO from UW

to N. We also extend our price target time horizon from June-11 to Dec-11 and raise

our price target from Rp2,000 to Rp2,800.

Adaro Energy (Reuters: ADRO.JK, Blo omberg: ADRO IJ)Rp in bn, year-end Dec FY08A FY09A FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13ERevenue 18,093 26,938 27,445 36,879 43,866 46,140Net Profit 887.2 4,367.3 2,212.0 5,118.5 6,487.3 6,160.7EPS (Rp) 27.74 136.54 69.16 160.02 202.82 192.61DPS (Rp) 0 8 55 28 64 81Revenue growth (%) 56.1% 48.9% 1.9% 34.4% 18.9% 5.2%EPS growth (%) 553.5% 392.3% -49.3% 131.4% 26.7% -5.0%ROCE 24.6% 34.4% 19.8% 32.1% 36.2% 32.3%ROE 11.0% 27.8% 12.5% 25.6% 26.6% 21.7%P/E (x) 94.6 19.2 38.0 16.4 12.9 13.6P/BV (x) 6.0 4.8 4.7 3.8 3.2 2.8EV/EBITDA (x) 18.3 8.6 12.6 7.5 6.1 6.1Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.3% 2.1% 1.1% 2.4% 3.1%

Shares O/S (mn) 31,986Market cap (Rp bn) 83,963Market cap ($ mn) 9,259Price (Rp) 2,625Date Of Price 12 Jan 11Free float (%) 39.4%3mth Avg daily volume 60,951,600.003M - Average daily Value (Rp mn) 145,274.10

Average 3m Daily Turnover ($ mn) 16.02JCI 3,555Exchange Rate 9,068.00Fiscal Year End Dec

Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.


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Company description P&L sensitivity metrics EBIT EPSFY11E impact (%) impact (%)

Sales volume assumption (47.0MM tons)

Impact of each 10% 11.0% 13.6%

Coal price assumption (US$120/ton)


Subsidiaries rev assumption (Rp 4.50 trilion)


Cost assumption (US$44.6/ton)

Impact of each 10% -17.1% -20.1%

Average IDR/USD assumption (US$9,000/US$1)

Impact of each 10% 10.9% 13.3%Source: J.P. Morgan estimates

Price target and valuation analysis

Adaro is the second-largest coal company in Indonesia. InFY09, it produced 40.6MM tons of coal and has 870MMtons of reserves (@US$55/ton assumption) and a very lowstrip ratio that keeps its costs low. Its 5,200 kcal coal,Envirocoal, has worldwide acceptance from global power plants due to its very low ash, sulfur, and nitrogen content.It intends to pursue vertically integrated strategy becauseaside from coal mining, it also has subsidiaries operating inmining contracting, barging, port, and water toll operators.Its future earnings will be driven by volume growth, costreduction and increased subsidiaries’ profitability. Adaro’s

volume is expected to double in five years and the costcould be reduced by US$1-2/ton, when the mine-siteconveyer is completed. The subsidiaries’ contribution tofuture earnings is likely to increase over time from 5.2% inFY10E to 13.6% in FY15E.

Revenue segment chart

Our price target is derived using the DCF method. FromFY11E production volume of 47MM tons, volume isexpected to grow by 8.4% in the long run. We expectcoal prices to average US$120/ton in FY11 and estimatethe long-term real average price at US$90/ton, growingat its historical average of a 10% CAGR. In FY11, weestimate the total cost at US$47.4/ton, growing at anaverage rate of 8.4% in the long term. Our DCF value isderived using a risk-free rate of 9.5%, equity risk

premium of 5.5% and terminal growth rate of 5.5%.

Risk-free rate: 9.5%

Market risk premium: 5.5%

Beta: 0.95

Debt/equity: 24.1%

Source: Company reports, J.P. Morgan estimates. Cost of debt: 12.8%

Terminal “g”: 5.50%

EPS: J.P. Morgan vs. consensus

Rp per share J. P. Morgan Consensus

FY10E 69.288.7

FY11E 160.0 165.1

FY12E 202.8202.9

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Our price target of Rp2,800 represents 17.5x FY11E P/E,which exceeds the industry average P/E of 15.1x. Risks

are: rising coal price and lower-than-expected FY11Eearnings.


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Large earnings adjustments

Adaro's earnings are very sensitive to coal prices. J.P. Morgan’s global coal team

coal price adjustment from US$101/ton to US$120/ton resulted in a large earningsadjustment to ADRO’s earnings forecasts. As a matter of fact, our upward

adjustment in coal prices resulted in a 29.0% rise in ADRO’s FY11E earnings, the

second largest rise in the industry.

Table 8: ADRO - Indonesia coal earnings adju stments

Rp per share, %

New EPS Old EPS Difference (%)Comp any Name FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12EBumi Resources 115 206 246 148 241 273 -22.0% -14.6% -10.0%Tambang Bukit Asam 861 1,435 1,704 852 1,470 1,779 1.0% -2.4% -4.2%Indo Tambang Raya 2,202 3,561 4,619 2,071 3,198 3,647 6.3% 11.4% 26.7% Adaro Energy 69 160 203 70 124 144 -0.8% 29.0% 40.9%Berau Coal Energy 22 32 47 26 33 35 -15.3% -0.5% 33.3%

Indika Energy 232 440 421 210 324 295 10.5% 35.8% 42.5% Average 4.2% 18.4% 26.4%


The rise in our earnings estimates led to the largest price target increase, of 40% from

Rp2,000 to Rp2,800, among our Indonesian coal company coverage. Nevertheless,

we believe an OW rating is still unwarranted as our new price target of Rp2,800

implies only 0.9% upside.

Table 9: Indonesian coal mining - Upside and upward adjustments to PTs

Rp per share, %

Price Dec-11 PT Upside Old PT Adju stmentPTBA 23,200 29,000 25.0% 27,000 7.4% ADRO 2,775 2,800 0.9% 2,000 40.0%

INDY 5,200 6,300 21.2% 5,000 26.0%ITMG 55,500 63,000 13.5% 54,200 16.2%JCI 3,555 4,100 15.3% 21.7%


Neutral rating is most appropriate, in our view

In assigning a rating to Adaro, we also analyze the positive and negative factors of

the company and conclude that they are in balance.

Positives factors

Weather continued to be rainy in Indonesia until Dec 10: According to ParmaPersada, Indonesia’s largest mining contractor that works on most coal mines in thecountry, the weather was still rainy until the end of Dec-10. As usually the rainy

season does not end until 1Q11, it expects the production output from Indonesia to below until 1Q11. This should provide support for global coal prices.

Table 10: ADRO - Indonesia co al mine weather con dition s

Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-101st week Rain Rain Rain2nd week Dry Rain Rain3rd week Dry Rain Rain4th week Rain Rain Rain

Source: Parma Persada


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Adaro’s Tutupan mine has been the most affected by rain, and it can only get better

from here: Adaro’s Tutupan mine has been the most affected by rain in Indonesia

and we view that the operation could only get better.Come April, global coal contracts will be negotiated, and coal prices could rise: As

about 70% of the global thermal seaborne coal will be priced by 1Q11, we believe

coal prices could remain stable/rise as demand surges.

Neutral factors

Our earnings forecasts are now on par with consensus forecasts: With the

incorporation of the new coal price assumption of US$120/ton, our net income

forecast for FY11 for ADRO is on par with the street forecast. Hence, the risk of a

movement in the share price due to an upward/ downward revision in consensus

earnings is minimal, in our view.

Table 11: ADRO – J.P. Morgan earnings f orecasts vs . consensus' f orecasts

Rp B, %JPM Consensus Difference

FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12ESales 27,445 36,879 43,866 24,734 31,738 38,204 11.0% 16.2% 14.8%Operating Profit 6,541 11,051 13,178 7,129 11,171 13,802 -8.3% -1.1% -4.5%Net Income 2,212 5,118 6,487 2,799 5,274 6,574 -21.0% -3.0% -1.3%EPS 69 160 203 89 163 201 -22.0% -1.7% 0.7%


Negative factors

Floods receding in Australia: With the floods receding in Australia, miners are

starting production again. These will cause the global seaborne coal price to decrease

from here, which does not bode well for the coal companies’ earnings.

Expensive short-term valuation: ADRO is the one of most expensive coal stocks in

Indonesia, based on FY11E P/E (ADRO is 16.4x vs. the industry average of 15.1x).

Tutupan mine vs. Wara mine – advantage Tutupan: Because of the higher calorific

value, on an absolute dollar basis, the profit generated from Tutupan mine is 1.5x

that of Wara. This means that Adaro will have to work 1.5x harder at Wara mine to

maintain the level of absolute profit growth.

We upgrade ADRO from UW to N and raise our price target from Rp2,000 to

Rp2,800.


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Table 12: ADRO - DCF valuation

Rp B, %

FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20ERisk Free Rate (%) 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5%Equity Risk Premium (%) 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%Rupiah Debt Risk Premium (%) 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%Beta 1.11 1.13 1.05 0.98 0.95 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.82

Cost of Equity (%) 15.6% 15.7% 15.3% 14.9% 14.7% 14.6% 14.5% 14.3% 14.2% 14.1% 14.0%Cost of Debt (%) 13.8% 13.4% 13.1% 12.7% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.6% Average Debts (Rp B) 15,434 14,373 12,079 10,286 9,812 9,812 9,812 9,812 9,812 9,812 9,653 Average Equity (Rp B) 17,677 20,027 24,364 28,367 32,398 37,215 42,970 50,001 58,471 68,642 80,796% of Debt (Target cap structure) (%) 46.6 41.8 33.1 26.6 23.2 20.9 18.6 16.4 14.4 12.5 10.7% of Equity (Target cap structure) (%) 53.4 58.2 66.9 73.4 76.8 79.1 81.4 83.6 85.6 87.5 89.3Tax Rate (%) 47.4% 45.4% 44.6% 44.7% 44.3% 44.0% 43.7% 43.6% 43.4% 43.3% 43.2%WACC (%) 14.7% 14.7% 14.5% 14.3% 14.2% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 13.9% 13.9%Rp B FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E +TVCash Flow from Operation 2,714 7,403 9,715 10,387 9,650 12,459 14,388 16,755 19,538 22,773 26,626Capital Expenditures (6,144) (4,478) (4,501) (3,837) (7,946) (5,484) (6,061) (6,696) (7,396) (8,168) (9,019)

Free Cash Flow (3,430) 2,925 5,214 6,550 1,704 6,974 8,327 10,059 12,142 14,605 17,607PV of FCF & TV (3,430) 2,550 3,968 4,362 994 3,563 3,729 3,950 4,184 4,418 4,677Total firm value per share (Rp) Dec-11 3,719Net cash (debt) per share (Rp) Dec-11 (228)Equity value per share (Rp) Dec-11 3,49120% discount applied for ST high valuation (698)Dec-11 PT 2,793



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Indika Energy

The cheapest coal name in Indonesia: At 11.3x FY11E P/E, Indika Energy is the

cheapest coal stock in Indonesia. In addition, we believe that there is the potential

for earnings upgrades by the Street as our FY11E EPS of Rp440 is 12.1% higher

than the consensus forecast of Rp392. The difference between our and the Street’s

estimates could be due to the Rp340B profit recognition on PTRO spin-off. For the

past three months, INDY’s share price has outperformed the JCI by 52.12%.

PTRO spin off: As Bapepam required at least 20% of PTRO to be listed, INDY will

need to sell 18.6% of PTRO to the public. The listing of PTRO is scheduled for Aug-

11.

New contracts as catalysts: In FY11, new contracts could also be secured at either

Tripatra or Petrosea level. We view that INDY’s share price could re-rate on the back

of these new contracts.

Maintain OW, raise price target from Rp5,000 to Rp6,300: With these factors,

we maintain our OW rating on INDY. Our incorporation of the new coal price

assumptions in our model has resulted in a rise in our FY11 EPS forecast by 29%.

Extending the time horizon from June-11 to Dec-11, we raise our price target from

Rp5,000 to Rp6,300. With more than 25% upside from the current share price level,

we have selected INDY as one of our top picks in the Indonesian coal sector. Risks

to our view are non-controlling interest at Kideco and operating risks at Tripatra and

Kideco.

Indika Energy (Reuters: INDY.JK, Bloomb erg: INDY IJ)Rp in bn, year-end Dec FY08A FY09A FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13ERevenue 2,314 2,487 3,827 4,419 4,657 5,106

Net Profit 1,084.7 725.7 1,205.8 2,283.6 2,186.0 2,223.3EPS (Rp) 208.32 139.36 232.23 439.80 421.00 428.19DPS (Rp) 24 84 70 116 220 211Revenue growth (%) -1.0% 7.4% 53.9% 15.5% 5.4% 9.6%EPS growth (%) 309.4% -33.1% 66.6% 89.4% -4.3% 1.7%ROCE 3.5% 3.5% 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 1.7%ROE 31.4% 13.8% 21.0% 32.6% 26.1% 23.5%P/E (x) 23.9 35.7 21.4 11.3 11.8 11.6P/BV (x) 5.0 4.9 4.2 3.3 2.9 2.6EV/EBITDA (x) 182.7 20.9 93.8 63.6 52.6 37.6Dividend Yield 0.5% 1.7% 1.4% 2.3% 4.4% 4.2%

Shares O/S (mn) 5,207

Market cap (Rp bn) 25,906Market cap ($ mn) 2,857Price (Rp) 4,975Date Of Price 12 Jan 11Free float (%) 30.0%3mth Avg daily volume 17,459,100.003M - Average daily Value (Rp mn) 68,618.96




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Sales volume assumption (35.2MM tons)


Coal price assumption (US$120/ton)


Oil price (US$91.8/barrel)

Impact of each 10% -0.4% -4.3%


Impact of each 10% 0.0% -13.0%

Average IDR/USD assumption (US$9,000/US$1)

Impact of each 10% 71.2% 13.2%Source: J.P. Morgan estimates


Indika Energy is a diversified energy company withoperations in coal mining, coal mining contracting, oil andgas EPC contracting, and power plants. Out of its variousoperations, its 46% stake in Kideco, Indonesia’s third-largest coal mining company, contributed more than 85%of its annual profit. Other than Kideco, Indika owns 98% ofPetrosea, a group of energy companies operating in miningcontracting, engineering and contracting, and PetroseaOffshore Supply Base. Indika also owns Tripatra, a leadingoil and gas EPC company in Indonesia with subsidiariesoperating in port, coal barging and transshipment. Finally,

Indika also owns 20% in Cirebon Electric Power, a660MW power plant designed to take on Kideco’s coal.

Income segment chart (FY11E)

Our price target is derived using the combination ofSOTP, DCF, average P/E and average EV/EBITDAmethods. From FY11E production volume of 35.2MMtons, the volume is expected to grow by 7.2% CAGR inthe long run. We expect coal prices to averageUS$120/ton in FY11 and the long-term real average price to be US$90/ton, growing at 10% p.a. The FY11E production cost per ton is US$44.6/ton, growing at 5.6%CAGR in the long run. Our risk-free rate incorporated is

9.5%, equity risk premium is 5.5%, and terminal growthrate is 5.5%. We do not incorporate any value for INDY'sreserves.

Risk-free rate: 9.5%


Beta: 0.95

Debt/equity: 24.1%

Source: Company reports, J.P. Morgan estimates. Cost of debt: 12.8%



Rp per share J. P. Morgan Consensus

FY10E 234237

FY11E 444 392

FY12E 421441


Our price target of Rp6,300 represents 14.3x FY11E P/E,which is relatively in line with the industry average

FY11E P/E of 15.1x. Risks are: Non-controlling interestat Kideco and operating risks at Tripatra and Kideco.


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Table 13: INDY - New and ori ginal assum ption sMM tons, US$/ton, %

New FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15ECoal Price (US$/ton) 98.5 120.0 120.0 120.0 108.4 119.2Volume (MM tons) 31.2 35.2 39.6 44.3 47.7 51.2 ASP (US$/ton) 58.7 73.5 76.8 77.1 69.4 71.5Cost (US$/ton) 37.9 45.6 49.2 52.2 47.5 49.4EBIT Profit (US$/ton) 20.9 27.8 27.6 24.9 21.9 22.1

Orig inal FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15ECoal Price (US$/ton) 95.0 101.0 105.0 105.0 108.4 119.2Volume (MM tons) 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 ASP (US$/ton) 57.0 63.6 66.6 67.4 67.3 71.5Cost (US$/ton) 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8EBIT Profit (US$/ton) 19.2 25.8 28.8 29.6 29.5 33.7

Diff erenc e (%) FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15ECoal Price (US$/ton) 3.7% 18.8% 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0%

Volume (MM tons) 0.0% 12.7% 26.9% 41.8% 52.9% 64.1% ASP (US$/ton) 3.0% 15.6% 15.3% 14.3% 3.1% 0.0%Cost (US$/ton) 0.1% 20.7% 30.3% 38.0% 25.7% 30.6%EBIT Profit (US$/ton) 8.7% 7.9% -4.3% -15.9% -25.9% -34.4%


Table 14: INDY - New forecasts compared consensus forecasts and our original forecasts

Rp B, %, Rp per share

JPM Consensus Difference (%) Origin al Difference (%)FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E

Sales 3,827 4,419 4,657 3,682 4,349 4,887 3.9% 1.6% -4.7% 3,793 4,419 4,657 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%Op Profit 52 103 93 198 294 347 -73.7% -65.2% -73.2% 46 102 93 13.5% 0.3% 0.4%Net Ince 1,206 2,284 2,186 1,212 2,003 2,252 -0.5% 14.0% -3.0% 1,092 1,682 1,534 10.5% 35.8% 42.5%EPS 232 440 421 237 392 441 -2.1% 12.1% -4.6% 210 324 295 10.5% 35.8% 42.5%


Table 15: INDY - SOTP valuation

Rp per share

Value per share Holding Period Disc Value per shareKideco @46% ownership 6,988.4 20.0% 5,590.7Santan @50% ownership 414.0 20.0% 331.2West Kalimantan Project 957.4 20.0% 765.9Tripatra @100% ownership (4.0) 20.0% (3.2)Petrosea @80% ownership 515.9 20.0% 412.7Power Plant @20% ownership 42.5 20.0% 34.0HQ cost (1,630.0) 20.0% (1,304.0)

SOTP Value per share 5,827.3Net Cash per share 540.7Net Debt per share (883.3)

SOTP Value Per Share 5,484.6

DCF Value Per share 6,639.9 Average FY11E PE 6,654.6FY11E EV/EBITDA 6,482.8

Average Val ue per shar e 6,315.5



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PT Indo Tambangraya Megah

Model revisited: We revisit our model on ITMG and make the following

adjustments: (1) raise our FY11 coal price assumption from US$120/ton to

US$101/ton; (2) lower our FY11 volume forecast from 27MM to 26MM, in line with

the company’s guidance; (3) extend our price target from June-11 to Dec-11; and (4)

adjust beta from 1.506 to 1.621 as the trading pattern has changed.

Lower FY11E volume: Besides the adjustments to coal price assumption, we also

lower our FY11 volume forecast from 27MM tons to 26MM tons to bring it in line

with the lower guidance from the company. The adjustments to our coal price

assumption (up from US$101/ton to US$120/ton) and volume raise our FY11 EPS

estimate by 11.4%. Our FY11E net income of US$447MM is 10.5% below the

Street’s forecast. Given that the recent actual reported earnings are below those of

consensus forecasts, we believe there is potential for downward earnings revision bythe Street.

No significant upside: After our model revisit, our calculation yields a Dec-11 fair

value estimate and price target of Rp60,000 per share, which implies less than 10%

upside from the current share price . In view of this, we believe that ITMG will only

perform in line with the market over the next 6-12 months. Over the past three

months, ITMG has outperformed the JCI by 27.7%.

Maintain Neutral, extend and raise price target to Rp60,000: We maintain

Neutral on ITMG. The extension of our time horizon from June-11 to Dec-11 results

in a rise in our PT from Rp54,200 to Rp60,000. The risks to our view and price target

are lower-than-expected FY11E EPS and a rise in coal prices.

PT Indo Tambangr aya Megah (Reuters: ITMG.JK, Bloo mberg: ITMG IJ)$ in bn, year-end Dec FY08A FY09A FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13ERevenue ($ mn) 1,317 1,508 1,665 2,171 2,682 2,942Net Profit ($ mn) 235 336 276 447 580 593EPS ($) 0.21 0.30 0.24 0.40 0.51 0.52DPS ($) 0.08 0.13 0.18 0.15 0.24 0.31Revenue growth (%) 70.6% 14.5% 10.4% 30.4% 23.6% 9.7%EPS growth (%) 321.1% 42.8% -17.6% 61.7% 29.7% 2.3%ROCE 58.1% 59.5% 47.1% 52.7% 53.1% 45.6%ROE 44.0% 48.0% 33.3% 44.1% 44.2% 37.3%P/E (x) 29.0 20.3 24.6 15.2 11.7 11.5P/BV (x) 11.1 8.6 7.8 5.9 4.6 4.0EV/EBITDA (x) 17.1 13.2 13.4 9.0 6.5 6.3Dividend Yield 1.3% 2.2% 3.0% 2.4% 3.9% 5.1%

Shares O/S (mn) 1,130Market cap ($ bn) 7Market cap ($ mn) 6,803Price (Rp) 54,600Date Of Price 12 Jan 11Free float (%) 35.0%3mth Avg daily volume 1,511,103.003M - Average daily Value (Rp mn) 75,415.13




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Company Description P&L sensitivity metrics EBIT EPS

FY11Eimpact

(%)impact

(%)

Coal Price Assumption (US$120/ton)


Volume assumption (26.0MM tons)



Impact of each 10% -18.1% -18.2%

Debt/equity assumption (0.22x)

Impact of each 10% 0.0% -0.2%Average IDR/USD assumption(US$9,000/US1)


Source: J.P. Morgan estimates


ITMG is controlled by Banpu of Thailand, which has a65% stake. ITMG’s main mines are Indominco, TrubaAlam-Bharinto, Jorong, and Kitadin. In terms of production, ITMG produces about 20MM+ tons of coal,most of which is exported. Most of the ITMG production is exported to Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, andChina. ITMG will soon start mining in the East Block ofIndominco and South Block of Truba Alam. In addition,the planned conveyer system at Indominco could saveabout US$4.2-5.7/ton starting FY12E.

Revenue segment chart (FY11E)

Our price target is derived using the DCF method. Theaverage coal price assumed for FY11 is US$120 per ton anddue to calorific value difference, ITMG's average FY11 ASPis forecast to be US$93.5 per ton. The long-term real averagecoal price is assumed to be US$90/ton with a nominalgrowth rate of 10%, in line with the historical nominalchange in coal price. The total cost per ton in FY11 isforecast to be an average US$62.5 per ton, growing at a6.0% CAGR. Our DCF value is derived using a risk-free rate

of 9.5%, equity risk premium of 5.5% and terminal growthrate of 5.5%. We did not incorporate any value for ITMG'sreserves.

Risk free rate: 9.5%


Beta: 1.64

Debt/equity: 0.19

Cost of debt: 10%

Source: Company reports and JP Morgan estimates Terminal “g”: 5.5%


US$/share J. P. Morgan Consensus

FY10E 0.245 0.263

FY11E 0.396 0.432

FY12E 0.513 0.515

Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan.

Our price target of Rp60,000 represents 16.9x FY11E, whichis fair, in our view, given that it is close to the industryaverage of 15.1x. The risks to our view and price target are

lower-than-expected FY11E EPS and a rise in coal prices.


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Table 16: ITMG - New and ori ginal assum ption s

US$/ton, MM tons, %

FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15ECoal Price (US$/ton) 98.5 120.0 120.0 110.0 108.4 119.2Volume (MM tons) 22.5 26.0 28.6 32.0 38.0 40.1 ASP (US$/ton) 74.4 93.5 97.7 89.6 85.5 91.2Cost (US$/ton) 57.7 62.5 66.9 67.0 64.3 66.0EBIT Profit (US$/ton) 16.7 31.1 30.8 22.6 21.2 25.2

FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15ECoal Price (US$/ton) 95.0 101.0 105.0 105.0 108.4 119.2Volume (MM tons) 22.5 27.0 28.6 32.0 38.0 40.1 ASP (US$/ton) 74.4 81.6 84.6 83.7 84.5 91.2Cost (US$/ton) 57.2 57.9 60.5 62.0 62.2 65.6EBIT Profit (US$/ton) 17.2 23.7 24.1 21.7 22.3 25.6

FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15ECoal Price (US$/ton) 3.7% 18.8% 14.3% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0%Volume (MM tons) 0.0% -3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ASP (US$/ton) 0.0% 14.6% 15.4% 7.1% 1.2% 0.0%Cost (US$/ton) 0.9% 7.8% 10.6% 8.1% 3.3% 0.6%EBIT Profit (US$/ton) -3.0% 31.3% 27.4% 4.3% -4.9% -1.6%


Table 17: ITMG - New forecasts co mpared to cons ensus forecasts and our orig inal forecasts

US$MM, %, US$ per share

JPM Consensus Difference (%) Origin al Difference (%)FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E

Sales 1,665 2,171 2,682 1,667 2,116 2,377 -0.1% 2.6% 12.8% 1,631 2,049 2,326 2.1% 5.9% 15.3%Op Profit 419 616 841 439 669 791 -4.6% -7.9% 6.3% 396 554 668 5.6% 11.1% 25.8%Net Income 276 447 580 305 500 592 -9.3% -10.5% -2.0% 260 402 458 6.3% 11.4% 26.7%EPS 0.245 0.396 0.513 0.263 0.432 0.515 -7.0% -8.4% -0.3% 0.230 0.355 0.405 6.3% 11.4% 26.7%


Table 18: ITMG - DCF valuation

US$MM, Rp per share, %

FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21ERisk Free Rate (%) 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5%Equity Risk Premium (%) 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%Rupiah Debt Risk Premium (%) 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%Beta 1.62 1.62 1.66 1.66 1.65 1.64 1.64 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63

Cost of Equity (%) in Rupiah 18.4% 18.4% 18.6% 18.6% 18.6% 18.5% 18.5% 18.5% 18.5% 18.5% 18.5% 18.5%

Cost of Debt (%) in Rupiah 5.8% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Average Debts (Rp B) 58 152 273 316 351 383 415 470 542 626 723 836 Average Equity (Rp B) 831 1,015 1,311 1,590 1,858 2,130 2,423 2,795 3,240 3,759 4,367 5,080% of Debt (Target cap structure-%) 6.5 13.1 17.2 16.6 15.9 15.2 14.6 14.4 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.1% of Equity Target cap structure - % 93.5 86.9 82.8 83.4 84.1 84.8 85.4 85.6 85.7 85.7 85.8 85.9Tax Rate (%) 23.9% 26.6% 29.5% 29.1% 29.5% 29.4% 29.4% 29.6% 29.6% 29.7% 29.7% 29.8%WACC (%) 17.6% 17.3% 17.1% 17.2% 17.2% 17.2% 17.3% 17.3% 17.3% 17.3% 17.3% 17.3%

US$MM FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E & TVCash Flow from Operation 363 536 681 683 732 719 812 946 1,097 1,271 1,474 1,720Capital Expenditures (67) (268) (150) (333) (94) (78) (97) (116) (127) (138) (151) (168)Free Cash Flow 296 268 530 351 639 642 715 829 970 1,133 1,323 15,457PV of FCF & TV 296 229 386 218 339 290 276 273 272 271 270 2,687Total firm value per share (Rp) Dec-11 51,466Net cash (debt) per share (Rp) Dec-11 8,559Equity value per share (Rp) Dec-11 60,024



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Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam

Model revisited: We revisit our model for PTBA and incorporate following

adjustments: (1) raised FY11 coal price assumption from US$101/ton to

US$120/ton; (2) raised royalty rate assumption from FY11 to FY15 from 5% to

13.5% as after our meeting with the Directorate General of Minerals and Coal

Mining, we evaluate the potential immediate affect of higher royalty; (3) raised

discount for Bangko Tengah power plant project from 70% to 85% as the realization

has further stalled; and (4) lowered beta assumption from 1.435 to 1.385. These

adjustments result in us lowering our FY11 EPS forecast by 2.4% and currently our

new FY11 EPS estimate is in line with that of consensus (3.7%). Over the past three

months, PTBA’s share price has outperformed by 11.1%.

Raising stake in BATR from 10% to 30%: It was reported in Bisnis Indonesia that

PTBA is likely to increase its stake in the Transpacific Railway consortium from10% to 30%. The fee to be paid for the increased stake will be minimal but will

require higher investment from PTBA to build the US$1.3 billion project.

Realignment design resubmitted to regional governments post feedback:

Following the feedback from regional governments, BATR has resubmitted the

alignment design as the previous one was overruled in certain sections as it was

passing through protected forest and some densely populated areas. With the

resubmission and rework, we believe the approvals from the regional governments

are likely to be obtained.

We maintain our OW rating, and extend and raise our PT from Rp27,000 to

Rp29,000: We maintain our Overweight rating on PTBA, roll over our price target

time frame from Jun-11 to Dec-11 and raise our price target from Rp27,000 to

Rp29,000. Risks to our view and price target include execution risk and projectdelays.

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (Reuters: PTBA.JK, Bloomberg : PTBA IJ)Rp i n bn, year -end Dec FY08A FY09A FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13ERevenue 7,216 8,948 8,750 13,726 16,924 22,557Net Profit 1,708 2,728 1,984 3,307 3,927 4,293EPS (Rp) 740.98 1,183.53 860.70 1,434.92 1,703.88 1,862.62DPS (Rp) 165 437 698 508 847 1,005Revenue growth (%) 75.0% 24.0% -2.2% 56.9% 23.3% 33.3%EPS growth (%) 135.2% 59.7% -27.3% 66.7% 18.7% 9.3%ROCE 74.7% 73.2% 40.5% 52.8% 44.7% 42.5%ROE 51.2% 56.2% 33.7% 46.0% 42.3% 38.3%

P/E 31.2 19.5 26.8 16.1 13.6 12.4P/BV 13.3 9.3 8.8 6.4 5.2 4.3EV/EBITDA 20.5 14.1 20.9 10.8 8.7 7.8Dividend Yield 0.7% 1.9% 3.0% 2.2% 3.7% 4.4%

Shares O/S (mn) 2,304Market Cap (Rp bn) 53,225Market Cap ($ mn) 5,870Price (Rp) 23,100Date Of Price 12 Jan 11Free float (%) 35.0%3-mth trading value (Rp mn) 82,361.023-mth trading value ($ mn) 9.08

3-mth trading volume (bn) 0.00JCI 3,555Exchange Rate 9,068Fiscal Year End Dec



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Coal Price Assumption (US$120/ton)


Volume assumption (17.4MM tons)



Impact of each 10% -14.6% -16.1%

Debt/equity assumption (0.46x)

PTBA is a state-owned company in which the governmentof Indonesia owns 65%. The company’s main coal mine isin Tanjung Enim, South Sumatra. In addition to TanjungEnim, PTBA also owns several mines in South Sumatra:Ombilin and Cerenti mines, plus several other mines inKalimantan. In total, PTBA’s minable reserves stand at 2

billion tons. Currently PTBA is embarking on several projects that could increase its annual production volumefrom 12.0 million tons in FY09 to 55 million tons by FY15.These projects are:

Impact of each 10% 0.0% -0.3%

1. Expansion of Tanjung Enim - Kertapati railways. Average IDR/USD assumption (US$9,000/US$1)

2. Banjarsari mine mouth power plant project. (2 x100MW) Impact of each 10% 2.8% 2.1%

3. Bangko Tengah mine mouth power plant project. (4 x600MW)


4. Mine acquisitions in Kalimantan.

5. South Sumatra - Lampung railway projects. Price target and valuation analysis

6. Adani railway - Tanjung Enim to Palembang

Revenue breakdown

Our new price target is derived using the SOTP method. OurSOTP valuation incorporates the DCF value of each project thatPTBA is embarking on. We assume an FY11 coal price ofUS$120 per ton and, due to calorific value difference, PTBA’saverage overall ASP (excluding brisket) is forecast to beUS$95.3 per ton. The total cost per ton is forecast to averageUS$55.6 per ton. Our DCF value is derived using a risk-free rate

of 9.5%, equity risk premium of 5.5% and terminal growth rateof 5.5%. We did not incorporate any value to PTBA’s reserves.

Risk free rate: 9.5%


Beta: 1.56

Debt/equity: 22.9%

Cost of debt: 10.0%




Rp J. P. Morgan Consensus

FY10E 861 945

FY11E 1,435 1,506

FY12E 1,704 1,757


Our price target of Rp29,000 represents 20.2x FY11E P/E.Given the long tail nature of PTBA for which most of theearnings will come in later years, its FY11E P/E multiple could be on the higher side. Risks to our view and PT includeexecution risk and project delays.


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Table 19: PTBA—New and earlier assump tions

US$/ton, MM tons

New FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15ECoal Price (US$/ton) 96.00 120.00 120.00 110.00 108.36 119.19Volume (MM tons) 13.88 16.00 18.91 23.83 37.12 49.63 ASP (US$/ton) 67.97 92.42 95.47 87.07 84.49 82.32Cost (US$/ton) 47.07 56.30 58.12 55.01 59.74 54.96EBIT (US$/ton) 20.89 36.11 37.35 32.06 24.75 27.36Orig inal FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15ECoal Price (US$/ton) 95.00 101.00 105.00 105.00 108.36 119.19Volume (MM tons) 13.88 17.40 20.70 24.37 39.85 55.00

ASP (US$/ton) 70.06 81.64 83.89 82.35 77.54 68.45Cost (US$/ton) 47.51 47.63 48.62 47.65 48.53 40.36EBIT (US$/ton) 22.55 34.00 35.26 34.70 29.01 28.08Diff erenc e (%) FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E

Coal Price (US$/ton) 1.1% 18.8% 14.3% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0%Volume (MM tons) 0.0% -8.0% -8.6% -2.2% -6.9% -9.8% ASP (US$/ton) -3.0% 13.2% 13.8% 5.7% 9.0% 20.3%

Cost (US$/ton) -0.9% 18.2% 19.5% 15.5% 23.1% 36.2%EBIT (US$/ton) -7.3% 6.2% 5.9% -7.6% -14.7% -2.6%


Table 20: PTBA—New forecasts vs . consensus f orecasts and our earlier forecasts

Rp B, %

New Consensus Difference (%) Origin al Difference (%)

FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E

Revenue 8,750 13,726 16,924 8,696 11,638 13,569 0.6% 17.9% 24.7% 8,724 13,203 16,298 0.3% 4.0% 3.8%Op profit 2,384 4,857 5,939 2,634 4,355 5,177 -9.5% 11.5% 14.7% 2,358 4,969 6,186 1.1% -2.3% -4.0%EBITDA 2,522 4,929 6,047 2,836 4,624 5,487 -11.1% 6.6% 10.2% 2,496 5,041 6,293 1.1% -2.2% -3.9%Net profit 1,984 3,307 3,927 2,163 3,422 4,028 -8.3% -3.4% -2.5% 1,964 3,389 4,101 1.0% -2.4% -4.2%EPS (Rp) 861 1,435 1,704 941 1,489 1,738 -8.6% -3.7% -2.0% 852 1,470 1,779 1.0% -2.4% -4.2%


Table 21: PTBA—SOTP valuatio nUS$MM, Rp per share

SOTP US$ MM In RpB JPM Comments SOTP without discount In RpB

NPV of existing coal operation (Rp B) 4,260 38,696 NPV of existing coal operation (Rp B) 38,696

Banko Tengah PP 178 1,618 Assign 85% discount as the realization is stalled Banko Tengah PP 10,786

Banjarsari PP 23 212 Assign 70% discount as the realization is stalled Banjarsari PP 707

Transpacific railways 418 3,793 Assign 15% discount as the realization has improved Transpacific railways 4,462

Integrated transportation 284 2,576 Integrated transportation 2,576

Sale of coal to power plants 394 3,575 Assign 84.6% discount as the realization is stalled Sale of coal to power plants 23,216

Transpacific coal sale 1,702 15,457 Assign 15% discount as the realization has improved Transpacific coal sale 18,184

Kalimantan Mines 541 4,917 Assign 50% discount to account for delay Kalimantan Mines 9,833

Total NPV (Rp in billion) 7,799 70,842 Total NPV (Rp in billion) 108,459

Debt (4,000) Debt (4,000)

Cash 5,977 Cash 5,977

20% discount to potential prolonged dela (708) (6,429)Equity value per share (Rp) 28,806 Equity value per share (Rp) 47,917 Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.


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Bumi Resources

Next possible catalysts: We see several potential catalysts: (1) According to Kontan,

Bumi will start to pay back its high-cost debt, with the assistance of Vallar. (2) In a

conference call, Vallar indicated that it could raise its stake in Bumi from 25% to

more than 51%. (3) A rise in the copper price estimate (J.P. Morgan’s expectation)

could translate into a higher stock price for Bumi Resource Minerals (BRMS IJ). (4)

Newmont Nusa Tenggara’s potential IPO in FY11 (which has been announced by

Newmont Mining Corp) should serve as a catalyst to drive up the share price of

BRMS.

Fund raising at Vallar Plc needed: In order to assist BUMI to pay back its nearly

US$4 billion of debt, our calculation indicates that fund raising will be needed at

Vallar. The reason is that post payment of US$733 million to Recapital, the cash

balance at Vallar will only be US$367 million, which is insufficient to acquireadditional 25% of BUMI which is currently worth about US$1.65 billion. In

addition, to assist BUMI to pay back the US$1.9 billion CIC loan, it will need to

raise an additional US$1.2-1.3 billion.

We revisit our model: We revisit our model for BUMI and incorporate the

following adjustments: (1) Raise our FY11 coal price assumption from US$101/ton

to US$120/ton. (2) Lower our FY10 volume assumption from 64 million tons to 59.3

million tons. (4) Incorporate the lower-than-expected 9M10 results. (5) Incorporate

the value of BRMS into our SOTP valuation, substituting the value of Batu Hijau

which has been included in BRMS’ valuation. These adjustments result in a 23.8%

reduction in our FY11 EPS estimate. Currently, our FY11 EPS forecast is lower than

the Street by 21.2%.

Performance: Bumi’s share price has outperformed the market by 33.4% over the past three months.

Bumi Resour ces (Reuters: BUMI.JK, Bloomberg: BUMI IJ)$ in , year-end Dec FY08A FY09A FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13ERevenue ($ mn) 3,378 3,219 4,203 6,264 7,542 8,276Net Profit ($ mn) 372 190 258 488 582 609EPS ($) 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03DPS ($) 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01Revenue growth (%) 49.1% -4.7% 30.6% 49.0% 20.4% 9.7%EPS growth (%) -52.8% -48.8% 29.2% 80.4% 19.3% 4.6%ROCE 55.2% 18.5% 24.1% 30.6% 32.8% 30.3%ROE 32.5% 14.4% 14.1% 20.4% 20.7% 18.8%P/E (x) 17.7 34.5 26.7 14.8 12.4 11.9P/BV (x) 5.6 4.5 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.1EV/EBITDA (x) 6.9 13.4 6.2 4.7 4.2 3.9Dividend Yield 1.6% 1.7% 0.8% 1.1% 2.0% 2.4%

Shares O/S (mn) 20,773Price (Rp) 3,075Date Of Price 12 Jan 11Free float (%) 78.5%3mth Avg daily volume 136,190,100.003M - Average daily Value (Rp mn) 371,810.00




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Table 22: BUMI—New and earlier assu mpti onsUS$/ton, MM tons

New FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15ECoal Price (US$/ton) 96.0 120.0 120.0 110.0 108.4 119.2Volume (MM tons) 59.3 70.5 82.5 96.5 102.0 103.9 ASP (US$/ton) 66.1 82.3 84.9 79.3 81.9 91.0Cost (US$/ton) 45.9 55.7 58.9 57.9 61.4 67.0Orig inal FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15ECoal Price (US$/ton) 95.0 101.0 105.0 105.0 108.4 119.2Volume (MM tons) 64.0 77.3 90.3 105.2 111.2 113.2 ASP (US$/ton) 64.3 70.9 72.9 73.3 80.1 89.8Cost (US$/ton) 45.5 46.3 49.4 51.0 55.0 61.1Diff erenc e (%) FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15ECoal Price (US$/ton) 1.1% 18.8% 14.3% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0%Volume (MM tons) -7.3% -8.8% -8.6% -8.3% -8.3% -8.2% ASP (US$/ton) 2.8% 16.2% 16.5% 8.2% 2.3% 1.3%

Cost (US$/ton) 0.9% 20.4% 19.2% 13.6% 11.6% 9.7%Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

Table 23: BUMI—New forecasts vs . consensus

US$ in millions, US$ per share

New Consensus Difference (%)

FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12ESales 4,203 6,264 7,542 4,078 5,265 6,180 3.1% 19.0% 22.0%Op Profit 1,078 1,872 2,177 1,106 1,629 2,008 -2.6% 14.9% 8.5%Net Income 258 488 582 317 545 668 -18.4% -10.4% -12.8%EPS 0.013 0.023 0.027 0.016 0.029 0.034 -20.8% -21.2% -19.8%


Table 24: BUMI—New and or iginal forecasts

US$ in millions, %New Origin al Difference (%)

FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12ESales 4,203 6,264 7,542 4,666 6,045 6,989 -9.9% 3.6% 7.9%Operating Profit 1,078 1,872 2,177 1,501 2,064 2,118 -28.2% -9.3% 2.8%Net Income 258 488 582 377 621 628 -31.5% -21.4% -7.3%EPS 0.013 0.023 0.027 0.020 0.030 0.030 -36.6% -23.8% -9.1%



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PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk

We revist our model: We revisit our model for BRAU and incorporate the

following adjustments: (1) incorporate J.P. Morgan’s higher coal price assumption at

US$120/ton vs US$101/ton; (2) incorporate the lower-than-expected 9M10 results;

and (3) roll over our price target timeframe from Jun-11 to Dec-11. These

adjustments do not result in significant adjustments to our FY11 EPS forecast

(-0.5%) and our new EPS estimate of Rp32 barely differs (-0.5%) from consensus.

Further acquisition potential: In Bisnis Indonesia, BRAU’s director Didik

Cahyanto was quoted as saying that BRAU is looking to acquire several mid-size

mining companies. The target companies are those that can still produce for five

years.

Awarded DOID US$500MM contract: As indicated in Bisnis Indonesia, BRAU

was awarded Delta Dunia for a five-year US$500 million contract to be the miningcontractor at BRAU’s Lati mine. The contract covers overburden removal of 226.8

cubic meters and coal production of 20.7 million tons. The contract will start in Mar-

11 and is in addition to the existing contract between DOID and BRAU which is up

to FY18.

Performance: Over the past three months BRAU has outperformed JCI by 13.2%.

PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (Reuters: BRAU.JK, Bloomberg: BRAU IJ)Rp in , year-end Dec FY08A FY09A FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13ERevenue (Rp bn) 6,110 8,319 9,470 12,225 15,570 17,628Net Profit (Rp bn) 170.1 853.7 761.6 1,128.7 1,635.0 1,651.2EPS 4.87 24.46 21.82 32.34 46.85 47.31DPS 1 7 7 10 14

Revenue growth (%) 77.4% 36.1% 13.8% 29.1% 27.4% 13.2%EPS growth (%) 565.8% 401.9% -10.8% 48.2% 44.9% 1.0%ROCE 294.7% 86.7% 34.3% 36.0% 47.0% 45.1%ROE 76.2% 44.0% 17.2% 19.4% 23.6% 20.3%P/E (x) 110.8 22.1 24.7 16.7 11.5 11.4P/BV (x) 49.9 5.4 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.2EV/EBITDA (x) -0.7 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5Dividend Yield 0.3% 1.4% 1.2% 1.8% 2.6%

Shares O/S (mn) 34,900Price (Rp) 540Date Of Price 12 Jan 11Free float (%) 90.3%

3mth Avg daily volume 102,778,300.003M - Average daily Value (Rp mn) 52,005.15




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Table 25: BRAU—New and original assumptionsUS$/ton, MM tons

New FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15ECoal Price (US$/ton) 98.5 120.0 120.0 110.0 108.4 119.2Volume (MM tons) 16.0 19.5 23.0 26.5 30.0 31.5 ASP (US$/ton) 64.0 68.4 73.9 72.6 67.6 70.6Cost (US$/ton) 46.9 50.7 53.7 55.3 54.9 59.3EBIT Profit (US$/ton) 17.1 17.7 20.2 17.4 12.7 11.3Orig inal FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15ECoal Price (US$/ton) 95.0 101.0 105.0 105.0 108.4 119.2Volume (MM tons) 17.5 20.6 23.8 26.9 30.0 31.5 ASP (US$/ton) 58.0 63.7 66.7 64.7 67.4 70.7Cost (US$/ton) 45.2 46.5 51.5 54.3 53.0 57.2EBIT Profit (US$/ton) 12.8 17.2 15.3 10.4 14.4 13.5Diff erenc e (%) FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15ECoal Price (US$/ton) 3.7% 18.8% 14.3% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0%

Volume (MM tons) -8.6% -5.5% -3.2% -1.4% 0.0% 0.0% ASP (US$/ton) 10.4% 7.4% 10.7% 12.3% 0.3% -0.2%Cost (US$/ton) 3.9% 9.2% 4.4% 1.8% 3.6% 3.7%EBIT Profit (US$/ton) 33.2% 2.7% 32.1% 66.9% -12.2% -16.6%


Table 26: BRAU—J.P. Morgan and con sensus f orecasts

Rp B, %

JPM Consensus Difference (%)

FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12ESales 9,470 12,225 15,570 9,299 12,038 14,523 1.8% 1.6% 7.2%Operating Profit 2,655 3,321 4,455 2,188 3,409 3,525 21.3% -2.6% 26.4%Net Income 762 1,129 1,635 900 1,135 1,226 -15.3% -0.5% 33.3%EPS 22 32 47 26 33 35 -15.3% -0.5% 33.3%

Source: Blomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Table 27: BRAU—New and orig inal for ecasts

Rp B, %

JPM Origin al Difference (%)

FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12ESales 9,470 12,225 15,570 9,299 12,038 14,523 1.8% 1.6% 7.2%Operating Profit 2,655 3,321 4,455 2,188 3,409 3,525 21.3% -2.6% 26.4%Net Income 762 1,129 1,635 900 1,135 1,226 -15.3% -0.5% 33.3%EPS 22 32 47 26 33 35 -15.3% -0.5% 33.3%



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JPM Q-ProfileAdaro Energy (INDONESIA / Energy)As Of: 07-Jan-2011 [email protected]

Local Share Price Current : 2775 .00 12 Mth Forward EPS Current: 170.11

Earnings Yield (& local bond Yield) Current: 6% Implied Value Of Growth* Current: 51.07%

PE (1Yr Forward) Current: 16.3x Price/Book Value Current: 4.8x

ROE (Trailing) Current: 15.34 Dividend Yield (Trailing) Current: 1.14

Summary

Adaro Energy 9865.08 As Of:

INDONESIA 16.15717 SEDOL B3BQFC4 Local Price: 2,775.00

Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels EPS: 170.11

Latest Min Max Median Average 2 S.D.+ 2 S.D. - % to Min % to Max % to Med % to Avg

12mth Forward PE 16.31x 2.67 16.31 12.65 11.38 19.72 3.05 -84% 0% -22% -30%

P/BV (Trailing) 4.83x 1.11 23.72 3.25 4.21 14.25 -5.82 -77% 391% -33% -13%

Dividend Yield (Trailing) 1.14 0.00 1.53 0.92 0.75 1.95 -0.45 -100% 34% -19% -34%

ROE (Trailing) 15.34 6.98 40.74 23.94 23.35 47.81 -1.11 -55% 166% 56% 52%

Implied Value of Growth 51.1% -0.68 0.58 0.42 0.31 0.98 -0.37 -233% 14% -17% -40%

Source: Bloomberg, Reuters Global Fundamentals, IBES CONSENSUS, J.P. Morgan Calcs * Implied Value Of Growth = (1 - EY/Cost of equity) where cost of equity =Bond Yield + 5.0% (ERP)

7-Jan-11

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12Mth fwd EY Indonesia BY Proxy

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PBVhist PBVForward

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JPM Q-ProfileBumi Resources (INDONESIA / Energy)As Of: 07-Jan-2011 [email protected]

Local Share Price Cu rrent: 32 75 .0 0 12 Mth Forward EPS Current: 0.03




Summary

Bumi Resources 6890.62 As Of:

INDONESIA 37.80816 SEDOL 6043485 Local Price: 3,275.00



12mth Forward PE 12.77x

P/BV (Trailing) 4.70x -8.60 142.04 3.43 6.33 39.40 -26.73 -283% 2919% -27% 35%

Dividend Yield (Trailing) 0.92 0.00 10.71 0.00 0.69 3.48 -2.10 -100% 1062% -100% -25%

ROE (Trailing) 10.09 -229.18 187.13 15.12 12.88 185.14 -159.38 -2371% 1754% 50% 28%

Implied Value of Growth 37.5% -2.88 1.00 0.32 0.20 1.38 -0.99 -867% 167% -13% -47%


7-Jan-11

-0.04

-0.02

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0.00

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-3.50

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-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.501.00

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PBVhist PBVForward

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JPM Q-ProfileBerau Coal Energy (INDONESIA / Energy)As Of: 07-Jan-2011 [email protected]

Local Share Price Current: 550.00 12 Mth Forward EPS Current: 33.91




Summary

Berau Coal Energy 2133.37 As Of:

INDONESIA 5.742479 SEDOL B51F5K3 Local Price: 550.00



12mth Forward PE 16.22x 14.49 16.22 15.37 15.36 16.84 13.88 -11% 0% -5% -5%

P/BV (Trailing) 3.79x 3.10 4.53 3.51 3.60 4.65 2.54 -18% 20% -7% -5%

Dividend Yield (Trailing) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

ROE (Trailing) 43.97 43.97 76.23 43.97 58.86 91.67 26.06 0% 73% 0% 34%

Implied Value of Growth 50.8% 0.45 0.51 0.48 0.48 0.53 0.42 -12% 0% -6% -6%


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jp morgan - indonesia coal mining 2011

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