jrc- brussels- pf jrc brussels 1 iiasa-accent-vienna 27.01.2004 jrc brussels1 the ipcc ar4...

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JRC Brussels JRC Brussels 1IIASA-ACCENT-Vienna 27.01.2004

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The IPCC AR4 Experiment II: Air pollution and climate change in 2030

The team:

Frank Dentener, JRC emissions, deposition, organisation.

David Stevenson, Un. Edinburghozone budgets, climate change, organisation

H. Eskes, KNMI NO2 columns

Kjerstin Ellingsen, Un. Oslo:surface ozone+data handling, web-site

+ ca. 20 participating groups from Europe, US, and Japan.

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Model InstituteContact,e-mail addresses

Domain / resolution Underlying GCM/ Meteorology Advection scheme Convection scheme

IASB IASB/BelgiumJ.-F. Mü[email protected]

5 x 525 levelssfc – 50 hPa

monthly means from ECMWF reanalyses(1993-2001 ERA40)

semi-Lagrangian [Smolarkiewicz and Rasch, 1991]

described in Costen et al. [1998]; cumulo-nimbus distrbution taken from ISCCP

KNMI KNMI / IMAUUtrecht

Twan van NoijePeter van Velthoven

2lat x 3lon25 levelssfc – 0.48 hPa

ECMWF 6-h operational forecasts (2000)

Slopes scheme [Russel and Lerner, 1981]

mass flux scheme of Tiedtke [1989]

TM5 [email protected]@jrc.it

1lat x 1lonzoom over Europe, N. America, and Asia, other wise 6x425 levelssfc – 0.48 hPa

ECMWF 3-6-h operational forecasts (2000)

Slopes scheme [Russel and Lerner, 1981]

mass flux scheme of Tiedtke [1989]

MATCH-MPIC

Max Planck Institute for Chemistry / NCAR

[email protected] x 5.628 levelssfc – 2 hPa

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and ECMWF Reanalysis

SPITFIRE [Rasch and Lawrence, 1998]

Zhang and McFarlane [1995] for deep convection; Hack [1994] for shallow convection

UIO2 University of OsloMichael [email protected]

2.8x2.8 40 levelssfc – 10 hPa

ECMWFforecast data

Second Order Moments [Prather, 1986]

mass flux scheme of Tiedke [1989]

LMDz/INCA

LSCE Didier Hauglustaine ([email protected])Sophie Szopa ([email protected])

1.lon x 2.5 lat

19 levels sfc - 3hPa

GCM (or nudged to ECMWF/ERA15-ERA40-OD)

Finite Volume second order (Van Leer, 1977)

mass flux scheme of Tiedke [1989]

STOCHEM-HadGEM

UK Met Office3.75 x 2.520 levelssfc – 40km

GCM(HadGEM)

Lagrangian Described in Collins et al. [2002]

GEOS-CHEM

LMCA-EPFL [email protected] 4°latx5°lon30 levelssfc – 0.01hPa

GEOS windsNASA GMAO

Lin and Rood scheme [Lin and Rood, 1996]

mass fluxes are taken directly from the GISS 2’ meteorology described by Allen et al. [1997]

CHASER FRCGC Kengo [email protected]

2.8x2.8 32 levelssfc – 3 hPa

GCM (CCSR/NIES)

Lin and Rood scheme [Lin and Rood, 1996]

prognostic Arakawa-Schubert scheme in CCSR/NIES GCM

MOCAGE Météo-France, CNRM [email protected], [email protected]°x2°47 levelssfc – 5 hPa

ARPEGE operational analyses (Météo-France), 6 hourlyOptions : forecasts, ECMWF analyses or re-analyses.

Semi-lagrangian [Williamson and Rasch, 1989]

Mass flux scheme [Bechtold et al. , 2001]Option: [Tiedke, 1989]

FRSGC_UCI FRCGC Oliver Wild [email protected] T4237 levels, sfc-2 hPa

ECMWF-IFS pieced-forecast data for 2000

Second order moment [Prather, 1987]

Mass flux scheme of Tiedke [1989]

ULAQ L’Aquila University Veronica [email protected]

Gianni [email protected]

10°X22.5°26 levelssfc-0.04 hPa

GCM Eulerian flux form Pitari et al (2002) following Muller and Brasseur (1995)

GMIDAO NASA-GSFC Jose M. [email protected]

Susan [email protected]

4x546 levelssfc – 0.15 mb

NASA-GMAO(GEOS-STRAT)

Lin and Rood (1996)Utilize archived mass fluxes - Transport scheme from MATCH

GMICCM NASA-GSFC Jose M. [email protected]


4x552 levelssfc - .007 mbar

CCM3 Lin and Rood (1996)Utilize archived mass fluxes - Transport scheme from MATCH

MOZECH Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg

(MPI-M)

Martin G. [email protected]

Global, T63L31 (Gaussian grid, approx. 1.91.9)

ECHAM5.2 in AMIP mode with SST and seaice from IPCC run transient 1850-2000 and continued with scenario SRES B1 (IPCC run with coupled atmosphere-ocean model, AQ2030 model without ocean)

Lin&RoodTiedtke with modifications after Nordeng

LLNL

MOZART4 NCAR Jean Francois Lamarque T42, L26, extending 4 hPa

CCSM3 Lin&RoodZhang&McFarlane (deep); Hack (shallow)

STOCED

UM_CAM

MOZ2-GFDL

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GMICCM NASA-GSFC Jose M. [email protected]


4x552 levelssfc - .007 mbar

CCM3 Lin and Rood (1996)Utilize archived mass fluxes - Transport scheme from MATCH

MOZECH Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg

(MPI-M)

Martin G. [email protected]

Global, T63L31 (Gaussian grid, approx. 1.91.9)

ECHAM5.2 in AMIP mode with SST and seaice from IPCC run transient 1850-2000 and continued with scenario SRES B1 (IPCC run with coupled atmosphere-ocean model, AQ2030 model without ocean)

Lin&RoodTiedtke with modifications after Nordeng

LLNL

MOZART4 NCAR Jean Francois Lamarque T42, L26, extending 4 hPa

CCSM3 Lin&RoodZhang&McFarlane (deep); Hack (shallow)

STOCED Unvisity of EDingburg

UM_CAM

GISS NASA

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IPCC4 Experiment II: 2030 Photcomp

•Focus on the year 2030; ‘the inter-mediate’ future which is of direct relevance to policy makers•New emissions scenarios that recently became available from the IIASA group: lower emissions of CH4 and O3 precursors.•Emphasis on the synergetic effect of air quality and greenhouse gas emissions (CH4); with focus on human health and vegetation exposure.•Calculate the corresponding Radiative Forcing.•Climate change and emission controls as driving factors of air pollution• Synthesis of results to be delivered to IPCC AR4 Chapter 7 :“Coupling between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry”

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Scenarios/simulation S1-S5

Sim. ID emissions Meteo Description

S1 IIASA-CLE-2000 2000 Baseline

S1c IIASA-CLE-2000 1990s Baseline for climatological period

S2 IIASA-CLE-2030 2000 IIASA current legislation

S2c IIASA-CLE-2030 1990s IIASA current legislation for climatological period

S3 IIASA-MFR-2030

2000 IIASA MFR (Maximum Feasible Reduction optimistic technology scenario)

S4 A2-2030 2000 SRES A2 (the most ‘pessimistic’ IPCC SRES scenario), harmonized with IIASA emissions for 2000

S4s A2-2030 2000 SRES A2 with ‘high’ ship emissions

S5c IIASA-CLE-2030 2020s Climate Change Simulation. Prescribed SST data for the 2020s.

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50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

TgN

O/y

ear

A1BA2B1B2

IIASA, RAINSCurrent Legislation. Maximum Feasible Reduction.

NO emissions IPCC SRES scenarios

“large difference for period2000-2020”

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IPCC

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NOx regional estimates RAINS

USAChina

Ships + aircraftSpecial exp. Lead byV. Eyring (DLR)

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This paper describes:

•IIASA emission scenarios (gridded + source categories)•Development of CH4 concentrations used in 2000 and 2030 experiments

The IPCC experiment is a natural extension of this work:•Multi model (almost 20 models, USA, Europe, Japan)•Include A2 SRES (non proliferation) (worked up, thanks to A. Sankovski•Climate change (6 models)•NH3 emission (from IMAGE3; B. Eickhout, L. Bouwman provided 2000 and SRES B2 2030.•Biomass burning (GFED, G.vd Werf, kept constant among scenarios)

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REQUESTED OUTPUT

•Hourly surface ozone [ppbv] •Daily average tropospheric column ozone •10:30 Local Time NO2 column (molec/cm2). •10:30 Local Time CH2O column (molec/cm2). •2D monthly O3 dry , oxidized and reduced nitrogen, and sulfur deposition fields.•3D monthly mean fields for O3, CO, CH4 NO, NO2, and OH. •3D monthly mean field of the CH4+OH destruction flux. •3D monthly budgets of ozone production and destruction, 2D surface deposition. •2D stratospheric O3 influx

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Deposition of NOy, NHx, and SOx:

Ecosystem inputsBiodiversityEutrophicationAcidification

F. Dentener, J. Drevot, J.F. Lamarque, others

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90C

HA

SE

RC

TM

CH

AS

ER

GC

FR

SG

GE

OS

-CH

EM

GF

DL

GIS

S

IAS

B

LLN

L

MA

TC

H-

MA

TC

H-

NC

AR

ST

OC

ED

TM

4

TM

5

LM

DZ

MO

CA

GE

MO

ZE

CH

Em

issio

ns

NOy Deposition

S1

S2

S3

S4

S5

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NOy WET DEPOSITION

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Difference of S2-S1, total NOy deposition.

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NOy wet deposition zoom over Europe

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SOMO3535 ppbv WHO recommendation

• Sum of excess of daily maximum 8-h means over a cutoff of 35 ppb calculated for all days of the year.

• Diagnostics: ppb*days

• But also look at other diagnostics/air quality indices, as well as model ozone deposition fluxes. Lisa Emberson, Rita van Dingenen, Martin Schultz, others.

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SUMO35, S1

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SUMO35, S2-S1

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SUMO35, S3-S1

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“Air quality from space”

• NO2 column from GOME 2000; with models• In the light of uncertainties between different retrievals• Exercise lead by H. Eskes, T. van Noije (KNMI); Claire

Granier (POET), N. Savage, Uni Bremen, Harvard/Dalhousie.

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Dalhousie/Harvard vs. BIRA/KNMI

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Experiment 2: S4 Climate Change and Radiative Forcing

•How will climate change modify atmospheric composition by 2030?•Repeat S2 (CLE emissions) with changed climate•Multiple years needed to see signal above interannual variability •Prescribed SSTs from HadCM3 is92a expt

Analysis of:Zonal mean ozone fieldsOzone budgets;Climate change experiments

David Stevenson+ climate change modellers

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Annual Zonal Mean O3 S1Mask O3>150ppbv

Extra modelhere

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Annual Zonal MeanΔO3 S2 – S1

-10 -5 0 5 10 ppbv

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S1 (y2000) O3 Budgets / Tg(O3)/yr)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

P

L

D

Sinf

Smod

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-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

P

L

D

Sinf

Smod

S2–S1 Δ(O3 Budgets) / Tg(O3)/yr)

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How is this BIG effort going to be used:

•GRL paper with high lights and synthesis•Some results in IPCC chapter 7•Deposition (F. Dentener et al.)•Surface ozone and health (K. Ellingsen et al.)•Climate change, ozone, ch4 and RF (D. Stevenson et al.)•NO2 (H. Eskes et al.)•Ecosystems and ozone fluxes ( R. v Dingenen, L. Emberson, D. Stevenson tbd)•And hopefully a lot of spin-off publications and users.

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jrc- brussels- pf jrc brussels 1 iiasa-accent-vienna 27.01.2004 jrc brussels1 the ipcc ar4...

Documents

levels sfc

mass flux scheme of

mass flux scheme of

mass flux scheme bechtold

rood scheme lin

hpa ecmwfifs

jrc brussels

hpa gcm ccsrnies lin