jul 14 danske commodities daily

8/9/2019 JUL 14 Danske Commodities Daily

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Investment ResearchGeneral Market Conditions

Commodities news

Overview – Commodities slightly down this morning on the back of minor gains on

Friday. EUR/USD drops below 1.26 after rising above 1.27 late last week. US equity

markets rose for a fourth straight day on Friday – ending a very strong week for risky

assets. The Q2 earnings reporting season begins with notably Alcoa, the largest US

aluminium producer, due to report today.

Cross commodities - Chinese trade data released over the weekend showed a larger

trade surplus than expected, reflecting much stronger exports than anticipated (44%

y/y), but also slightly weaker imports (34% y/y). However, even as import growth

has slowed, June’s numbers should, in our view, not raise any significant concerns

about the sustainability of growth in China, but rather support the case for further

CNY appreciation. Looking into the details for the different commodities on the

import side, it is notable that China’s demand for foreign aluminium and copper

alike continues to decline; not least, aluminim imports are now down almost 80%

y/y. However, purchases of crude oil and soybeans continue to surprise on the

upside, both up more than 30% on the year. Grains –The July WASDE report saw the US Department of agriculture lowering its

projections of ending stocks of corn and raising its projections for wheat and soybean

production. However, the report was less bullish than analysts expected and the

figures on the whole weighed on the grains complex. Both CBOT corn and wheatlost a little on Friday and the Matif milling wheat contract is declining this morning.

China - Property prices declined marginally on both a monthly and an annual basis in

June. We regard this as a healthy - and necessary - correction rather than a property

bubble bursting. This underlines that inflationary pressure in China is now easing.

Hence, the risk of aggressive monetary tightening in China now appears to be

decreasing but we still expect Peoples bank of China to hike its leading interest rate

late in Q3.

Chinese import of metals continue to weaken but oil and soybeans strong

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Markets.

Latest One month ago m/m One year ago y/y

Copper (1000 tonnes) 328 397 -17% 477 -31%

Aluminium (1000 tonnes) 75 94 -21% 353 -79%

Crude Petroleum Oil 22 18 25% 17 34%

Steel Products 1 1 8% 2 -10%

Soybeans 6 4 42% 5 32%

Iron Ore & Concentrate 47 52 -9% 55 -15%

Note: all figures in 100,000 tons unless otherwise stated.

12 July 2010

Todays key points

Q2 earnings: Alcoa

Commodities Daily

Commodities overview

Contract Last price %, d/d

WTI, NYMEX 1. pos 75.7 0.4

Brent, ICE 1. pos 75.0 0.4

Heating Oil, NYMEX 1. pos 202.0 0.8

Gasoline, NYMEX 1. pos 206.0 0.5

Aluminium, LME 3M 1995 0.3

Copper, LME 3M 6710 1.4

Lead, LME 3M 1830 0.1

Nickel, LME 3M 19360 -0.2

Zinc, LME 3M 1867 0.6

Steel, LME 3M 430 0.0

Hot Rol Coil, NYMEX 1. pos 600 -0.8

Gold, spot 1210 1.3

Silver, spot 18 1.5

Wheat, CBOT 1. pos 521.3 -2.4

Corn, CBOT 1. pos 373.0 -1.2


Commodities Research:

Chief Analyst

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen+45 4521 [email protected]

Senior Analyst

Christin Tuxen+45 [email protected]

Commodities Sales:

Senior Dealer

Martin Vorgod+45 4514 3286

[email protected]

Vice President

Fredrik Åberg+45 4514 [email protected]

Bloomberg: DRFX <GO>

This is the last Commodities

Daily in July - next edition due2 August



2 | www.danskeresearch.com

Commodities Daily

Commodity-price movements

This year

Last price %, today Close %, d/d Price %, m/m Price %, y/y %, YTD

Energy (1. pos):

NYMEX WTI ($/bbl) 75.7 -0.5 76.1 0.9 73.8 2.6 59.9 26.4 -4.6

ICE Brent ($/bbl) 75.0 -0.5 75.4 1.0 74.3 0.9 60.5 24.0 -3.7

NYMEX Heating Oil ($/gallon) 202.0 -0.3 202.6 1.0 200.5 0.8 153.3 31.8 -4.6

NYMEX RBOB Gasoline ($/gallon) 206.0 -0.5 207.0 0.9 205.0 0.5 165.1 24.8 0.4

ICE Gasoil ($/ton) 644.0 0.0 644.3 0.6 639.8 0.7 483.8 33.1 1.3

ICE NWE Jet Fuel, CIF ($/ton) 697.1 -0.6 701.3 0.4 697.5 -0.1 550.2 26.7 -0.4

TTF NL Natural Gas ( /mwh) 21.2 0.1 21.1 1.1 19.0 11.2 9.7 118.0 64.5

Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 4.4 0.1 4.4 0.1 4.8 -7.9 3.4 30.6 -20.9

Nordpool electricity ( /mwh) - 1.3 45.6 0.0 48.7 -5.3 - - -

Fuel oil, 1%, FOB NWE ($/ton) 449.5 0.3 448.0 - 446.5 3.8 301.3 53.8 81.3

Fuel oil, 3.5%, FOB ARA ($/ton) 419.0 0.5 417.0 - 433.0 3.7 227.0 97.8 98.2

API2 steam coal, CIF ARA ($/ton) 93.7 0.1 93.7 0.0 99.0 -5.4 66.5 41.0 13.9

ICE ECX Carbon Emission ( /tn) 14.7 1.7 14.4 -3.0 15.8 -7.0 14.3 2.4 16.9

Base metals:

Aluminium, LME 3M, $/ton 1995 -0.4 2004 0.8 1945 2.6 1572 26.9 -10.5

Copper, LME 3M, $/ton 6710 -0.7 6760 2.2 6479 3.6 4858 38.1 -9.0

Lead, LME 3M, $/ton 1830 -0.8 1845 0.9 1670 9.6 1596 14.7 -24.8

Nickel, LME 3M, $/ton 19360 -0.7 19500 0.5 19545 -0.9 14490 33.6 4.5

Zinc, LME 3M, $/ton 1867 -1.9 1904 2.6 1740 7.3 1493 25.1 -27.1

Steel, LME 3M, $/ton 430 1.2 425 -1.2 440 -2.3 345 24.6 5.0

Hot Rolled Coil, NYMEX, 1. pos, $/ton 600 -0.8 605 0.0 665 -9.8 450 33.3 9.1

Precious Metals (spot, $/t oz.) :

Gold 1210 -0.1 1211 1.4 1228.4 -1.5 912.3 32.6 10.1

Silver 18 0.0 18 1.6 18.3 -1.1 12.6 43.1 6.8

Agriculturals (1. pos):

CBOT Wheat ($/bu.) 521.3 -0.4 523.5 -2.0 440.8 18.3 491.8 6.0 -3.7

Matif Mill Wheat ( /ton) 150.0 -5.1 158.0 3.8 128.0 -12.1 136.0 -17.3 -14.3

CBOT Corn ($/bu.) 373.0 -0.6 375.3 -0.6 349.5 6.7 345.5 8.0 -10.0

CBOT Soybeans ($/bu.) 1023.0 -0.2 1025.5 1.3 946.3 8.1 1128.3 -9.3 -1.6

NYBOT Sugar ($/lb.) 16.6 -2.8 17.1 0.2 15.2 9.6 17.1 -2.9 -38.4

Commo dity indices (total return):

DJ-UBS 255 0.5 254 0.4 251 1.5 229 11.5 -8.7

S&P GSCI 4065 0.6 4042 1.2 4009 1.4 3798 7.0 -10.3

Reuters CRB 260 0.4 259 0.5 256 1.8 233 11.7 -8.0

Rogers commodity index 3004 0.5 2990 1.0 2895 3.8 2700 11.2 -8.3

DJ-AIG 127 0.5 126 0.4 125 1.5 114 11.4 -8.8

S&P GSCI Energy 902 0.8 895 1.4 902 0.1 858 5.2 -11.2S&P GSCI Industrial Metals 1504 1.5 1481 0.1 1426 5.5 1188 26.6 -11.9

S&P GSCI Precious Metals 1561 1.1 1544 -0.3 1586 -1.5 1185 31.8 9.7

S&P GSCI Agriculture 533 -0.7 536 1.5 480 10.9 540 -1.4 -13.5

Yesterday Month ago Year ago12.07.2010





Commodities Daily

Energy

Oil prices US crude oil stocks, EIA

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Jet fuel and gasoil crack spreads Gasoline crack spread, RBOB, NYMEX 1. pos


WTI (NYMEX) forward curve Brent (ICE) curve





Commodities Daily

Heating oil crack spread, NYMEX 1. pos Fuel oil, NWE, crack spreads


CO2 emission rights, ICE 1. pos Electricity, Nordpool quarterly, 1. pos


Natural gas, 1. pos API2 coal, 1. pos





Commodities Daily

Metals

Aluminium Aluminium forward curve


Copper Copper forward curve


Nickel Nickel forward curve





Commodities Daily

Zinc Zinc forward curve


Copper SHFE-LME spread Steel


Gold and silver Gold forward curve





Commodities Daily

Grains

Wheat Milling wheat forward curve, NYSE LIffe


Corn, CBOT 1. pos Corn forward curve, CBOT


Soybeans, CBOT 1. pos Soybeans forward curve, CBOT




8 |

Commodities Daily

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jul 14 danske commodities daily

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