julian r - vulnerability analyses progress ciat april 2012
DESCRIPTION
Presentation made to the Crop Wild Relative project colleagues, in the progress meeting held at CIAT in early April 2012TRANSCRIPT
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Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez
VulnerabilityA n a l y s e s
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Wheeler 2012. NCC.
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The approach
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Modelling changes in crop suitability
It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation… …and calculates the climatic suitability of the
resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…
• EcoCrop: how does it work?
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Input data
Model training• Present-day climates from WorldClim• Crop distribution data (GBIF, other sources)• An idea of the crop’s ecology, its distribution, and
growing season duration• Some literature reviewModel projection• 24 different climate models (2030, SRES-A1B), to
sample uncertaintiesAdaptation strategy testing• Genetic adaptation by broadening ecological ranges
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Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050
Preliminary analyses (~2009)
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Sorghum
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Cassava
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New analyses: 26 crops + maize
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Potato
VulnerabilityA n a l y s e s
Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez
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Potato Current Suitability
Kiling temperature (°C) -0.80
Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 3.75
Minimum optimum temperature (°C) 12.40
Maximum optimum temperature (°C) 17.80
Maximum absolute temperature (°C) 24.00
Growing season (days) 120
Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 150.00
Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 251.25
Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 326.50
Maximum absolute rainfall (mm) 785.50
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Potato Current Suitability and Presence
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Potato Current Climatic Constraints
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Potato Future Suitability and Change
2030s SRES-A1B
2030s SRES-A1B
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Water availability Temperatures
Potato Breeding Priorities
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Regional impacts
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Suitability changes Crop Comparison
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Suitability changes Crop Comparison in Africa
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Suitability changes Crop Comparison in Latin America
& Caraïbes
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