july 7, 2008 tptf texas nodal market implementation: - program update - market readiness update...
TRANSCRIPT
July 7, 2008TPTF
Texas Nodal Market Implementation:- Program Update- Market Readiness Update
Jerry Sullivan
2Texas Nodal Program UpdateJuly 7, 2008 2
Agenda: Program Update
• System-wide Load Frequency Control Test
• Program Status
• Schedule
• CIM Integration
• ERCOT and TSP Model Validation
• Scope Control
• Cost
3Texas Nodal Program UpdateJuly 7, 2008 3
System Wide Load Frequency Control Test
• ERCOT system operations managed the power grid with the nodal real-time systems that will be in place when the nodal market is launched
• All Congestion, including Zonal Congestion, was managed by Local Congestion management techniques during the LFC Test
– Process of moving QSEs to nodal operations started at 11:00 AM
– All energy schedulers were transitioned to nodal control by 12:18 PM
– The ERCOT market was entirely under nodal system control for 29 minutes
• System frequency stayed at acceptable levels during the test
ERCOT successfully completed a live run of the Nodal real-time market on June 25
15 July 2008 ERCOT Public
4Texas Nodal Program UpdateJuly 7, 2008 4
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Program Status
Nodal Delivery status is:
ERCOT Staff Readiness status is:
Market Participant Readiness status is:
CostScheduleScope / Quality
Nodal Delivery
Amber status driven by the limited response to the Cycle 4 Survey (out-reach efforts are on-going)
Changed due to schedule impact
Primary Indicators
Secondary Indicators
RedAmberGreen
Amber
Red
Amber
Green
EDS1Red
EDS2Amber
EDS3Red
EDS4
Amber status driven primarily by E8, the staffing metric
Red*
Red Amber Green
Scope Program is not aligned to protocols Program is aligned to previous protocol versions
Program is aligned with current protocols
Quality Current product quality is not sufficient for Nodal launch
Most Nodal products currently achieve quality standards
All Nodal products currently achieve quality standards
Schedule Go-Live => 30 days+ Go-Live =< 30 days+ Go-Live = 12/1/2008
Cost Estimate at Complete => 319M +10% Estimate at Complete =< 319M +10% Estimate at Complete =< 319M
* Final cost unknown until new schedule confirmed
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Schedule
• Progress – Master Schedulers completed initial reviews of all project schedules– Published project guidelines and PMs revising schedules to align with
requirements– Continuing to identify all cross-project and program-level dependencies– Continuing to assess and clarify responsibilities of projects at the
program layer– Revising schedules for NMMS, EMS, MMS, Infrastructure and Testing
projects by July 11 that will serve as initial feeds into integrated schedule
– Will continue to iterate against integrated schedule to incorporate activities from remaining projects, as well as program-level dependencies
• Timeline– The date for setting a new schedule date has not been finalized, but
the team understands the sense of urgency as well as the importance of a realistic plan
ERCOT continues aggressive development of a revised integrated Nodal program schedule that is realistic and achievable
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Schedule Assumptions
• SME analysis and assessment activities– NPRRs deemed “essential for Go-Live”– Revision of EDS handbooks to align activities with schedule changes
• Quality control and assurance activities– Resolution of data quality issues– Quality gates to ensure code readiness and document completion
• Structured release and testing activities– Support of formal release process and environment entry gates– Delivery of a complete, integrated testing environment– End-to-end testing and defect resolution– Disaster recovery, security, and performance testing
• Market Participant activities– TSP and QSE testing activities– Validation of the network operations model for TSPs
• Go-Live requirement activities– SEM Go-Live activities, 168-hr Test, Go-Live Sequence– Implementation of both Real-Time Market and Day-Ahead Market, as originally
planned
The new integrated schedule will address sufficient time for ….
7Texas Nodal Program UpdateJuly 7, 2008 7
CIM Integration
• Agreement in place for provision of onsite resources at AREVA until the CIM Importer exits FAT
• Assigned resources are focusing on resolution and delivery– ERCOT: 11 resources– AREVA: 14 resources– ABB: 15 resources
• ERCOT is monitoring AREVA’s performance trends to address continuing or potential issues
ERCOT is working closely with the vendors to minimize the ongoing delay and address development and data issues
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ERCOT and TSP Model Validation
NMMS
Seed Model+
Nodal data
1
2
Zonal EMS
Nodal EMS
Compare results
CIM Importers
Nodal MMS
Data 34
Protocols Section 3.10
1. ERCOT validates model – this is a multi-step process that has been reviewed with Market Participants
2. Single Entry Model (SEM) Go-Live – ERCOT validated model deployed to Production environment
3. TSPs perform data validation - ERCOT will provide TSPs with guidelines and other supporting documentation prior to SEM Go-Live
4. ERCOT enables Nodal Protocol § 3
ERCOT and TSPs have identified a process for completing NMMS data validation
9Texas Nodal Program UpdateJuly 7, 2008 9
Scope Control
Item Nbr Items*
Cost Estimate**
Nodal Budget**
Original Budget $263.0
Baseline 1 Changes 59 $5.8
Baseline 2 Changes 38 $6.7
Post-Baseline 2 Changes Included in Latest Fee Filing 52 $8.4
Budget changes resulting from ABB, contingency add of $15 million, and other vendor / project costs
N/A $35.6
Budget Based on Latest Nodal Fee Filing (including contingency funds) $319.5
Subsequent Post-Baseline 2 Changes Approved by Board 11 $0
Contingency funds committed for additional changes 9 $9.6
Current Budget Estimate resulting from Approved Changes $319.5
Changes up for Board Review (11 NPRRs, 1 Change Item) 12 $0.23-$0.40
NPRRs Currently Under Assessment 10 $2.0-$2.7
Future Changes to be Assessed TBD TBD TBD
* Includes changes resulting from NPRRs, NOGRRs, White Papers, and Change Items** in Millions $Note Baseline 1, Baseline 2 and Post Baseline 2 changes amounted to $20.9 million
$20.9
Potential scope changes continue to require analysis for Go-Live inclusion and subsequent schedule / budget impacts
10Texas Nodal Program UpdateJuly 7, 2008 10
Cost: Element Summary
When the integrated schedule has been finalized and the financial impact determined we will incorporate this into an updated forecast
VarianceRevised (over)/under
Cost Element Budget Actual Budget
Internal Labor $ 34.7 $ 33.8 $ 0.9
External Labor 80.7 75.2 5.5
Vendor 59.8 63.2 (3.4)
Hardware / Software 56.9 59.1 (2.2)
Taxes and Other 12.5 13.0 (0.5)
Subtotal $ 244.6 $ 244.3 $ 0.3
Finance Charge 8.3 9.8 (1.5)
Total $ 252.9 $ 254.1 $ (1.2)
Nodal ProgramCost Element Summary
($ Millions)
Through May 2008
11Texas Nodal Program UpdateJuly 7, 2008 11
Agenda: Market Readiness Update
• Status Update
– ERCOT Staff Readiness
– Market Participants• Cycle 4 Survey Update• Metric Update
– EDS
• Appendix (see separate file)
• Metrics Review (see separate file)
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Status Update
All status levels for overall readiness remain the same
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ERCOT Readiness
• Engagement (green)• new survey results came out at the end of
June - ERCOT remains fully engaged
• Training (amber)• training efforts are on-going
• Process (amber)• one department in System Operations is
behind performance levels
• Staffing (amber)• ERCOT is currently ~95% staffed
(98% required for green status)• recruitment is on-going
• Testing (green)• no recent developments
ERCOT Staff Readiness status is AMBER
15 July 2008 ERCOT Public
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Market Participant Readiness
Market Participant Readiness status is AMBER
• Engagement (amber)• limited survey response from QSEs and LSEs
drives amber status
• Connectivity (green)• several new entrants to the market have been
successfully tested
• Registration and Qualification (amber)• MP10 (resource mapping) has, again,
improved steadily since the last meeting• MP11 (RARF data) – only 5 RARFs have not
been received (RARFs representing more than 99.5% of MWs have been submitted)
• Telemetry (green)• no change
• Training (amber)• limited survey response from QSEs drives
amber status
• Trials Participation (green)• improvement in MP15 (EDS 3 trials
participation)
15 July 2008 ERCOT Public
15Texas Nodal Program UpdateJuly 7, 2008 15
Cycle 4 Survey Update
• There were varying degrees of response to the Cycle 4 Survey
– QSEs with Resources and TDSPs had 100% response to the Cycle 4 Survey
– 87% of QSEs have responded to the survey (up from 72%)
– 81% of LSEs have responded to the survey (up from 67%)
• This limited response is driving several metrics to red
– QSEs without Resources are red for MP1, MP12, and MP13
– LSEs are red for MP19
• ERCOT Account Managers will continue their outreach efforts to MPs who were non-responsive to the Cycle 4 Survey or who reported negative answers
• The survey will remain open through August 15th
• Updates to the Cycle 4 Survey can be submitted using the excel form found on the metrics website (same process as previous surveys)
Cycle 4 Survey Data was reported on the scorecards on June 12th
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Metric Updates
• Metrics will be updated on a weekly basis
• Changes will appear on the scorecard on Wednesday afternoon
• You will be notified Tuesday or Wednesday morning if you will be going red
• Contact us if you notice any inconsistencies
• Survey data will now be stockpiled and updated on a weekly basis
• There will not be a “Wall of Shame” in the Board presentation next week
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Status Update: EDS
• EDS 1 (green) no changes
• EDS 2 (red) state estimator convergence values were consistently higher last week EMO12 (Network Operations Model and SE Performance) is now amber
approximately 71 unobservable buses (less than 2%)
• EDS 3 (amber) Maintained amber status CRR5 (Trial Operation of Annual CRR Auction during Trials) expected to go green 7/11
• EDS 4 (red) waiting on EMS 5 delivery to proceed with EMO3 (Verify Outage Evaluation System Functionality) site fail-over test scheduled for 7/8
EDS status remains unchanged since the last meeting