jwilson confidential and proprietary location is everything! cellular, broadband, and location based...

JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

Location is Everything!

Cellular, Broadband, and

Location Based ServicesColloquium SeriesComputational Transportation Science University of Illinois at Chicago

Jerry Wilson 4/2/2009


Agenda

• Beginning Thought• A Little Cellular History• 3G/4G Transition• Industry Activity• Cellular Challenges • Traffic Paradigm Shift

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Predictive Traffic Users by Use Case

Source: ABI Research

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What Your Cell is Teaching Companies

Cell phones have become the nuerons in an emerging- and truly global- nervous system

MIT Media Lab

People are going to be online on cell phones, making location an essential new data point for Google to consider

Forester Research

Newsweek March 2009

Location data will give marketers and advertisers new insights into consumers

Sense Networks can craft customer profiles based on where people actually go and what they actually do


Agenda

• Beginning Thought• A Little Cellular History• 3G/4G Transition• IndustryActivity• Cellular Challenges • Traffic Paradigm Shift

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1st, Let’s Establish Context


A Little Cellular History

1980 Wide Area Mobile coverage

1983National Footprint

1986 Competition, A B Operators

1988 Truly Portable Devices

1994 Standards-based Roaming

2000Alternative to Wire Line

2003 Moving beyond voice

2006Search for Killer App


Wireless To Drive Broadband GrowthWireless broadband will overtake fixed as the dominant BB platform in 2011

Source: Future Mobile Broadband report, Informa Telecoms, 3Q 2007

Total broadband subscribers worldwide, 2007-12

-200

600

1,000

1,400

1,800

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Su

bs

crib

ers

(mill

ion

s)

Wireless

Wired


Not-Voice Applications Grow Fastest

Text messaging Ring tones Email Browse Internet Music Rich Messaging Next…Video

Operators are margins positively impacted by data

User experience is limited by bandwidth attributes

Next G infrastructure spend climbs


Device 101

Smaller, Cheaper, Lighter Battery Life and Size Standards Mean Choice and Content! Differentiation Hazards! GSM = $99 phones Impact on WiMAX and LTE Screen Size…Pixels and Pictures BB Suitability…User Experience…Interface?


Factors Changing the Industry GSM becomes defacto Global Standard Ericsson and Nokia Dominate IP Brings new entrants…Cisco Vendor consolidation… Low Cost Asian competitors…Huaweii Operators struggle with margins

Similar factors impact other industries…Public Safety, Cable Networks…Creating a shift toward converged services and increased competion


Agenda


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New Subscribers: No Longer A Key Growth Driver

Innovative data services are critical to future operator revenue / profit growth

Source: Telecoms & Media, WCIS+, July 2008

Worlwide Cellular Subscribersbillions

4.97

.31.48

.73 .941.15

1.391.73

2.17

2.69

3.32

3.86

4.244.51

4.71 4.86

.10

.53

.14

.20

.28

.38

.63

.54.51

.40

.31

.26.28.30

.22

.12

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Cum EOY (B) New Adds (B)


Broad Band Migration Basics!!!

LTE Will Be the Choice of Incumbents WiMAX Chosen By New Entrants/Differentiators Major Metros Deployed First Devices Must Be Dual Mode Devices Sales Will Follow Network New Services Drive Customer Migration Navigation/Location Based Services Will Be a Likely

Driver of Network Build Out Blue Tooth and GPS Will Be Critical to LBS Take-Up Network Migrations are Sloppy, not Linear!


Agenda


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Now, Let’s Look at Innovation


TeleNav Offered Today with Major Operators

Considering buying a PND?With easy-to-use GPS navigation right on a mobile phone or smartphone, your team can maximize productivity on and off the road. Say goodbye to asking for directions, printing out online maps, or calling 411


PND Faces Overwhelming Pressure

Portable Navigation Device Maturing50Million shipped in 2008

GSM Mobile Congress ViewReplaced by Cell Phone in the next 5-7 years

Garmin NuviFoneLooking for new revenue streams,

building on GPS strength

Smart Phones Grow 50% vs 11% Overall Market Bigger by 2013/14 than Laptops and PC’s combined


Garmin Faces a Tough Fight!UPDATE

Sadly, Garmin won’t be launching their GPS-navigation savvy Garmin Nuvifone until 2009. Specific carrier requirements, likely from AT&T have Garmin making changes to the Nuvifone that will delay its launch until 1H 2009.

Next


Gambling on WiMAX for Early start

Sprint has integrated a slew of content and location-based services into its upcoming XOHM WiMax wireless broadband network.

Developer friendly, supports all sorts of devices, including laptops, mobile Internet devices, media players, cameras and car navigation.

Services Available at Launch uLocate Communications: Access to restaurant reviews, news, events and weather Topix: local news based on current location Google: Local Search and Google Maps Openwave Systems: Platform enables XOHM partners location based services Autodesk: standards-based interface and geospatial services, such as addresses, ZIP code


AT&T Navigator What is needed to use AT&T Navigator?

Approved mobile device, AT&T network coverage, a monthly subscription or day pass. Also recommend a data rate plan for route information as standard data charges apply.

What devices is AT&T Navigator available on?AT&T Tilt, AT&T Quickfire (CTX75), BlackBerry 8110, BlackBerry 8800, BlackBerry 8820, BlackBerry 8310, BlackBerry BOLD, HTC Fuze™, LG CF360, LG CT810 (Incite), Motorola Q9 Global, Motorola Z9, Motorola V9x, Nokia 6650, Pantech C610, Pantech C630, Pantech Matrix™ (C740), Pantech Matrix Pro™, Samsung BlackJack II (i617), Samsung Rugby (A837), Samsung a637, Samsung Epix (i907), Samsung Propel (A767), Samsung A777, Samsung Eternity (a867), Sony Ericsson w760a

How much does AT&T Navigator cost?$9.99/month for unlimited access

How can the best possible GPS signal be attained? GPS signals need unobstructed view of the sky, do not work indoors; buildings,

terrain, heavy foliage, and materials such as metal, concrete, and stone will block GPS signals. Be patient, it may take 2-3 minutes to acquire the first GPS signal of the day.


Remember Device 101?

Google Maps couldn’t take advantage of the built-in GPS chip in your Verizon BlackBerry Storm.

If you unlocked your Verizon Storm, Google Maps worked fine on any other carrier

Google has just released an updated version of Google Maps for BlackBerry which supports GPS right out of the, the Storm is the only device with a third party-accessable GPS chip.


Agenda


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Rapid Location Based Services Growth

Gartner 2/7/08

Projects substantial LBS growth by 2011 due to GPS phone and content push driven by Nokia and Google

$M 485 1,300 8,000

2007 2008 2011

SubsM 16 43 300

LBS Revenue and Subscribers

LBS Will Represent 6+% of Total WW Subs by 2011


In 2011, Navigation is Top LBS Application ABI Research

At the GSM Mobile World Congress World they were saying Cell Phones would replace PNDs within the next 5-7 years

If Smart Phones shipments continue to grow at 50+% annually, by 2016 they will outnumber the combined WW total of both PCs and Laptops

LBS Subs by Application

32%

25%

19%

15%

9%

Navigation

Enterprise

Tracker

POI

FF


Gartner Mobile technologies to watch in 2009 &10

Bluetooth 3.0 —The Bluetooth 3.0 specification will be released in 2009 (at which point its feature set will be frozen), with devices starting to arrive around 2010.

Location Sensing — Location awareness makes mobile applications more powerful and useful; in the future, location will be a key component of contextual applications. Location sensing will also enhance systems, such as mobile presence and mobile social networking.

Display Technologies — Displays constrain many characteristics of both mobile devices and applications. During 2009 and 2010, several new display technologies will impact the marketplace, including active pixel displays, passive displays and pico projectors.

Mobile Web and Widgets —It has some limitations that will not be addressed by 2010 (for example, there will be no universal standards for browser access to handset services, such as the camera or GPS).


Bluetooth: Gaiting Factor to App Take-Up

Bluetooth attach rate with mobile handsets will continue to grow, climbing beyond 70% by 2012

IDC: Bluetooth revenue to double by 2012

Revenue for Bluetooth semiconductors will double in the next three years growing from $1.7 billion worldwide to $3.3 billion

Bluetooth headsets are the next big opportunity as safety concerns spur the interest in hands-free mobile phone use.

Another trend beginning to manifest, according to the study, is the integration of radio,

smartphone and other connection platforms with Bluetooth devices.

12/08 IDC


GPS Limitations

Unlike the well known GPS tracking devices used by hikers, mariners and drivers, most cell phone GPS tracking systems are more basic and do not allow the user to enter data. The FCC now requires that all cell phone carriers must be able to trace the location of cell phone calls to within a range of no more than 100 meters.

Cellular GPS uses AGPS (Assisted Global Positioning

System) a combination of both cell phone towers and satellites as location finders.


Moving Past GPS4G Applications

Solutions need to be accurate to within tens of meters, make a Time to First Fix (TTFF) in under five seconds and

work seamlessly across urban, suburban, rural, indoor and outdoor environments.

Hybrid Approach Using multiple technologies

will provide the accuracy, latency, reliability, yield

needed for 4G networks.

Assisted GPS (A-GPS),Enhanced Cell-ID (ECID),Uplink Time Difference of Arrival (UTDOA) Wireless Location Signatures (WLS)

Open Mobile Alliance (OMA)A broad group of wireless carriers, software developers, device and network suppliers and contentand service providers


Agenda


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Internet Advertising Explodes

Internet Advertising to Double$25.5B 2007 to $51.1B 2012IDC 5/28/08

WHY?My Time-what they want -when they wantSony Digital Media Entertainment

8X’s FasterThan Advertising as a Whole1-Direct Marketing2-Internet (from 5th)3-Broadcast TV4-CableTV5-Newspapers


Location Adds Value!

Location Based Advertising-targeted communities-Add’l $’s for LBS vendors-free funded navigation

MassBroadcast

ChoiceInternet

InformationLocation


Big Names Eye Mobile Marketing!Google, Inc. Yahoo! OgilvyInteractive MediaVest USA VeriSign Fox Mobile Group NokiaT-Mobile USASinglePoint R/GA Verizon

Alltel Wireless Limbo Inc. MTV Networks CBS Corp. Bain Capital Ventures mBlox1024 Wireless Services AT&T - Converged Services The Weather ChannelIsobar

4G JobTitlesGlobal mobile monetizationDigital InnovationMobile MediaMobile Brand StrategyMobile Advertising


Beyond the Traffic Market

GiantsApplications-Google, Microsoft, Yahoo

TrafficCast a target?

Mass MarketDevices-Apple, RIM/Blackberry, Nokia

Garmin’s challenge

Revenue ExtractionThe user is information

LocationBroadand


Last Thoughts

Standards

User Base

Bandwidth

Uniquely mobile applications

Revenue extraction

User experience/willingness to pay

The Power of “Where”

Putting Innovation In Context Mitigates Risk

jwilson confidential and proprietary location is everything! cellular, broadband, and location based...

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