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    The Day After Tomorrow

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    The science of climate change

    What is climate and why do we think it is

    changing? How can we predict climate when we cant

    predict the weather?

    What are the main uncertainties in climateprediction?

    Simulating climate change: the science of

    climate modelling.

    Using spare capacity on personal computers for

    global climate prediction.

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    Climate is what we expect; weather is whatwe get

    Climate is the statistics of the weather

    Mean annual Indian Rainfall Average October temperature in Astana

    How often hurricanes happen in the Gulf of

    Mexico

    What is the Climate?

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    Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get

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    In the light of new evidence and taking into account the remaining uncertainties,

    most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been dueto the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations

    Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

    Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report, 2001

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    Mountain glaciers of

    the Zailiiskiy Alatau

    Source: Stephan Harrison,

    University of Oxford

    416 glaciers

    Losing 0.7% of their mass per year(1955 2000)

    Glaciers are mainly small, with rapid

    response times

    75-80% of water supply derived from

    glaciers and permafrost

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    Multiyear fluctuations of mean January monthly temperatures in the northern Zailiiskiy

    Alatau range (1 Almaty, 847 m asl, 2 Bolshaya Almatinskoye Lake, 2516 m asl).

    Solid line is the 10-year moving average.

    -18

    -16

    -14

    -12

    -10

    -8

    -6

    -4

    -2

    0

    1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990Years

    T,C

    1

    2

    Source: Stephan Harrison,

    University of Oxford

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    Tuyuksu Glacier

    5km long

    4km2 in area

    Measurements since 1870

    Retreated throughout 20th century

    Retreated 10m in 2000

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    Tuyuksu Glacier mass balance

    Source: Stephan Harrison,

    University of Oxford

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    Climate is determined by factors like:

    Solar irradiance (power output of the sun)

    Volcanic activityAtmospheric composition (greenhouse

    gases etc...)

    Positions of continents, ice-sheets etc.

    We call these the forcing mechanisms

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    SUN

    Sunlight

    passesthrough the

    atmosphere..

    ..and warms the earth.

    ..most escapes to outer space

    and cools the earth...

    Infra-red radiationis given off by the earth...

    but some IR is

    trapped by somegases in the air,

    thus reducing the

    cooling.

    Source: Ellie Highwood

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    Energy in the climate system

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    Leaky Bucket

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    Weather/ climate model

    MODEL

    observations

    What we know will

    change in the future

    Models are simplified versions of real

    systems

    In the case of climate prediction, what we

    mean by a model is a set of equations that

    represents how the atmosphere and oceans

    behave how temperature patterns develop,

    how winds blow etc.

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    General Circulation Model of the Atmosphere:

    3 Equations of Motion

    Equation of State

    Energy EquationMass Conservation }

    3D wind field

    Temperature

    PressureDensity

    Convection scheme

    Cloud scheme

    Radiation scheme Sulphur cycle

    Precipitation

    Land surface and vegetation

    Gravity wave drag scheme

    The Model also includes:

    Each of these equations is evaluated at each point in the model [96

    longitudes by 73 latitudes by 19 vertical levels] every half hour

    timestep

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    Models forced by natural changes

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    Models forced by anthropogenic changes

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    Models forced by anthropogenic and natural

    changes

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    Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report

    Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration

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    Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report, 2001

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    We can produce very detailed predictions of

    climate change with no idea of how reliable theymight be

    2080

    temperature

    change (K)

    2080

    precipitation

    change (%)

    Source: Dr. Mat Collins, Hadley Centre

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    Do you trust a weather forecast?

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    Double Pendulum

    Courtesy of Ross Bannister

    Initial speed

    400.1 degrees/ sec

    Initial speed

    400.0 degrees/ sec

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    Does the Flap of a Butterfly's Wing in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?

    Ed Lorenz

    CHAOS

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    The climate is like a

    game of roulette

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    Parameters perturbed Critical Relative Humidity (RHcrit)- related to the cloud cover distribution in a grid box.

    Accretion constant (CT)

    - related to growth of rain droplets and lifetime of clouds.

    Condensation nuclei concentration (CW)

    - affects water holding capacity and lifetime of clouds.

    Ice fall velocity (VF1)

    10.5 2.0VF1

    5x10-52x10-5 5x10-4CW - sea

    2x10-41x10-4 2x10-3CW - land

    1x10-45x10-5 - 4x10-4CT

    0.70.5 0.95 (0.6 0.9)RHcrit

    Standard valuesRange:Parameter:

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    Climate Sensitivity

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    So for a complete climate forecast, we need to find out what hundreds of thousands

    of models do.

    Initial conditions: all the possible butterflies

    Forcing mechanisms: carbon dioxide, volcanoes

    Parameters climate models arent perfect

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    Hundreds of Thousands of possible model

    variants

    Standard model

    set-up

    Perturbed

    physics

    ensemble

    Initial

    condition

    ensemble

    Boundary Conditions

    (forcing) ensemble

    Overallem

    bedded-ensemb

    le

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    www.climateprediction.net

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    Experiment 1 (September 2003 end 2005)

    How does each model react when carbon dioxide is doubled?

    Investigate the sensitivity of the models to changes in the composition of the

    atmosphere

    Experiment 2 (February 2006)

    How well does each model do at reproducing the climate of 1950-2000?

    Find out which models we believe more than others

    What climate does each model predict for 2000 - 2050?

    A probability-based climate forecast for the 21st century

    Climateprediction.net experiment design

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    Climate Sensitivity: the equilibrium response of globally

    averaged temperature to a doubling of Carbon Dioxide

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    47334 climateprediction.net simulations passing

    initial quality control

    Courtesy of Ben Sanderson

    Traditional range

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    High risk of substantial warming even with

    todays greenhouse gas levels

    Can we really talk about a safe stabilisation limit?

    R i l d i i i

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    Standard model

    version

    Low sensitivity

    model

    High sensitivity

    model

    Regional responses: temperature and precipitation

    Regional Behaviour European Precipitation

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    Regional Behaviour European Precipitation

    Mediterranean Basin Northern Europe

    WinterWinter

    Summer

    Summer

    Annual Annual

    Unpublished analysis fromclimateprediction.net: Source: David Stainforth

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    Record hot events are more likely in a generally warmer world

    S 2003 t t

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    Summer 2003 temperatures

    relative to 2000-2004

    From NASAs

    MODIS - Moderate

    Resolution Imaging

    Spectrometer,

    courtesy of Reto

    Stckli, ETHZ

    Excess mortality rates in early August 2003 indicate 22 000

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    Excess mortality rates in early August 2003 indicate 22,000

    - 35,000 heat-related deaths

    Daily mortality in Baden-Wrttemberg

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    Was the hot summer of 2003 due to climate change?

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases have doubled the risk of a

    summer like 2003

    By 2050, it could be that hot every other summer

    We cant say.

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    In law, if you can show that the actions of a person ororganisation have doubled the risk of a damaging event,

    you can claim compensation for the damage caused

    Fossil fuels are artificially cheap, since we pay for thecost of extraction, and not for the cost of the impacts

    If politicians were to apply the polluter pays principal to

    the producers of fossil fuels, it may well make more senseto sell carbon neutral fuel (from a renewable energy

    source, or where an equal amount of carbon has been

    removed from the system in compensation)

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    What is Carbon dioxide Capture and

    Storage (CCS)?

    Source: Claire Gough, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

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    More acceptable solution than nuclear power?

    Current price of carbon is 15 per tonne CO2

    Research shows cost of capture, transport

    and storage from UK power stations to bebetween 25 and 60 per tonne CO2

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    The technology is already in use Sleipner: 1 MTCO2 per annum since 1996 stored

    in saline aquifers below North Sea.

    Weyburn Enhanced Oil Recovery Programme:20 Mt CO2 will be stored. CO2 supplied via a 205mile pipeline from plant in North Dakota.

    In Salah, Algeria: Storage in HydrocarbonReservoirs CO2 to be removed from the gasproduced and reinjected into depleted gas

    reservoirs

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    We have no objection in principle to the capture ofcarbon dioxide and its storage in underground formations

    but the pursuit of this technology is a distraction from the

    real priorities of implementing renewable energy and

    energy efficiency technologies which are available rightnow. We've given tax breaks to companies for getting oil

    and gas out of the ground, we shouldn't subsidise them to

    put the subsequent pollution back underground."

    Bill Hare, Greenpeace. Guardian 15/06/05

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    2005 U.K. Budget:"Carbon capture and storage [] is likely to

    prove a critical technology in global carbon

    reduction strategies. The Government istherefore examining how it might support

    the development of CCS in the Climate

    Change Programme Review, including thepotential for new economic incentives."

    Standard Visualisation Package

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    www.climateprediction.net

    g

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    Since September 2003,

    105,000 participants in 142 countries (8 in Kazakhstan)have

    completed 115,000 45 -year model runs

    computed 8 million model years

    donated 8,000 years of computing time

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    Temperature 2000 - 2100

    Will the results of experiment 3 look like this made up figure?