kenneth wilson, catherine f smith, donna kain, michelle covi & doug solomon east carolina...
TRANSCRIPT
KENNETH WILSON, CATHERINE F SMITH, DONNA KAIN, MICHELLE COVI & DOUG
SOLOMONEAST CAROLINA UNIVERSITY
SOUTHERN SOCIOLOGY SOCIETY ANNUAL MEETING
APRIL 8, 2011
Who Considers Evacuation When a Hurricane
Approaches?
Research
Case study of hurricane risk and emergency communication in eastern NC 2008-2010
We surveyed 20 counties and interviewed 6 counties in-depth.
Surveyed Interviewed Residents (year-round) 1087 120 Businesses and Organizations 600 120
Local Government Officials NA 24 (EMs, PIOs, county commissioners, county managers)
Presentation Agenda
• This presentation focuses on identifying those who consider evacuation when a hurricane is approaching the coast.
• It uses the results of telephone/internet surveys in the 20 NC CAMA counties and
• Insights from interviews/focus groups in 6 counties
Households Respond to Severe Weather
Many households take the threat seriously
68% reported that they had a disaster preparedness plan
76% know the location of an emergency shelter
91% know the evacuation route from their home
82% know if an evacuation order covers their home
Households Respond to Severe Weather
Things are getting better and families are more willing to plan for an emergency today In our survey, 68% of respondents had a plan After Hurricane Floyd, only 56% had a plan After Hurricane Bonnie, only 49% had a plan
A Socioeconomic Impact Analysis for Hurricanes Bonnie, Dennis and Floyd by John C. Whitehead, Marieke Van Willigen, Bob Edwards, Kenneth Wilson and John Maiolo, the Final Report to North Carolina Division of Emergency Management (HMGP 1240-0012) and North Carolina Sea Grant (NCSU 1998-0617-08), June 2001.
Who has a plan?
Table 2
Factor Influences Having a Plan
Have a Plan
Exp(B) Sig Exp(B) Sig
Social Income 1.129 0.014
Background Education 1.195 0.006
Variables Age 1.156 0.080
Married 0.957 0.827
Children at Home 0.782 0.226
Length of Residence 0.972 0.045
Risk Mobile Home, RV,Boat 0.743 0.211 1.113 0.681
Variables Evacuation Covers Home 1.184 0.005 1.151 0.028
Neighbors Evacuate? 1.208 0.005 1.178 0.023
Live in a Surge Zone 1.590 0.036 1.552 0.064
Risk from Flooding 0.956 0.633 0.973 0.788
Risk from Wind 1.045 0.628 1.028 0.774
Constant 0.738 0.421 0.305 0.053
Model Chi-Square(df) 28.233(6) .000 62.832(12) 0.000
CV Block Chi-Square(df) 44.894(6) 0.006
Risk Block Chi-Square(df) 28.233(6) .000 17.938(6) 0.000
% Correct Predictions 70.1% 72.1%
Cox & Snell R2 0.036 0.082
When Severe Weather Threatens…
Considerations
“Once you think your safety may be at risk, what are the most important considerations when deciding whether or not to evacuate?” Strength of the hurricane (93%) Direction of the hurricane (78%) A mandatory evacuation order (67%)
People want to make their own decision but your evacuation orders are part of their decision-making process
Households Respond to Severe Weather
14% reported at least one time they did not evacuate when they should have
Why: did not feel threatened (28%) did not realize how bad the storm would be (22%) thought the storm was not severe or close enough (15%).
While people are confident that they will make the right decision, people make mistakes.
Who prepares to leave? Table 3
Factor Influences Who Prepares to Evacuate
Prepare to Evacuate
Exp(B) Sig Exp(B) Sig
Social Income 1.049 0.591
Background Education 0.970 0.784
Variables Age 1.282 0.116
Married 0.342 0.001
Children at Home 1.908 0.061
Length of Residence 0.974 0.267
Risk Mobile Home, RV,Boat 2.989 0.001 3.132 0.002
Variables Evacuation Covers Home 1.251 0.081 1.363 0.033
Neighbors Evacuate? 1.511 0.000 1.553 0.000
Live in a Surge Zone 0.939 0.859 1.064 0.871
Risk from Flooding 0.992 0.959 0.921 0.631
Risk from Wind 1.149 0.409 1.179 0.367
Constant 0.007 0.000 0.004 0.000
Model Chi-Square(df) 31.775(6) .00062.832(12)
0.000
CV Block Chi-Square(df) 44.894(6)
0.006
Risk Block Chi-Square(df) 31.775(6) .00017.938(6)
0.000
% Correct Predictions 92.5% 72.1%
Cox & Snell R2 0.040 0.082
Who prepares to make a decision? Table 4
Factor Influences Who Prepares to Decide
Prepare to Decide
Exp(B) Sig Exp(B) Sig
Social Income 1.062 0.181
Background Education 1.042 0.481
Variables Age 1.056 0.482
Married 1.303 0.148
Children at Home 1.274 0.197
Length of Residence 0.956 0.001
Risk Mobile Home, RV,Boat 1.214 0.401 1.477 0.117
Variables Evacuation Covers Home 1.116 0.053 1.084 0.179
Neighbors Evacuate? 1.114 0.072 1.107 0.113
Live in a Surge Zone 1.474 0.048 1.551 0.035
Risk from Flooding 1.063 0.487 1.080 0.408
Risk from Wind 0.862 0.082 0.825 0.034
Constant 0.898 0.763 0.944 0.920
Model Chi-Square(df) 19.347(6) .000 62.832(12) 0.000
CV Block Chi-Square(df) 44.894(6) 0.006
Risk Block Chi-Square(df) 19.347(6) .000 17.938(6) 0.000
% Correct Predictions 58.5% 72.1%
Cox & Snell R2 0.024 0.082
Who prepares to ride out the storm? Table 5
Factor Influences Who Prepares to Ride Out the Storm
Prepare to Stay
Exp(B) Sig Exp(B) Sig
Social Income 0.920 0.082
Background Education 0.972 0.653
Variables Age 0.869 0.090
Married 1.054 0.788
Children at Home 0.614 0.017
Length of Residence 1.061 0.000
Risk Mobile Home, RV,Boat 0.478 0.006 0.374 0.001
Variables Evacuation Covers Home 0.840 0.003 0.856 0.013
Neighbors Evacuate? 0.754 0.000 0.745 0.000
Live in a Surge Zone 0.673 0.063 0.602 0.025
Risk from Flooding 0.926 0.415 0.940 0.537
Risk from Wind 1.124 0.197 1.174 0.095
Constant 1.753 0.136 1.688 0.391
Model Chi-Square(df) 50.594(6) .000 84.579(12) 0.000
CV Block Chi-Square(df) 30.694(6) 0.000
Risk Block Chi-Square(df) 50.594(6) .000 53.884(12) 0.000
% Correct Predictions 66.3% 68.8%
Cox & Snell R2 0.062 0.108
Conclusions -- Planning
The risk variables show that people who know their home is covered by an Evacuation Order, whose Neighbors evacuate and who live in a Surge Zone, are more likely to have a plan.
Income and Education increase the likelihood of having a plan and length of residence decreases it.
When controlling for the background variables, Knowing that your home is covered by an evacuation order and having neighbors who evacuate still increase the likelihood of having a plan.
Conclusions -- Evacuating
Living in a Mobile Home, knowing that an evacuation Order covers your home and having neighbors who evacuate increase the likelihood that a household will prepare to leave.
Being married and length of residence decreases the likelihood that you will prepare to evacuate but having children living with you increases the likelihood.
After controlling for the background variables, the same risk variables influence the likelihood of preparing to leave.
Conclusions-- Deciding
Knowing that an evacuation order covers your home and living in a storm surge zone increases the likelihood of preparing to make a decision when a storm approaches.
When other variables are controlled, length of residence, living in a storm surge zone increase the likelihood of preparing to make a decision while a higher subjective risk of wind damage decreases the likelihood
Conclusions – Riding Out the Storm
Living in a risky structure, knowing that evacuation orders cover your home and having neighbors who evacuate decrease the likelihood that you will prepare to ride out the storm.
When other variables are controlled, having children living in the home decreases the likelihood that you will prepare to ride out the storm while longer length of residence increases it. Living in a risky structure, knowing that your home is covered by evacuation orders, having neighbors who evacuate and living in a storm surge zone decreases the likelihood that folks will prepare to ride out the storm.
Acknowledgements
“Hurricane Risk Perception and Emergency Communication Effectiveness in Coastal Zones”
Catherine F. Smith, Donna J. Kain, Kenneth Wilson Research Assistants Michelle Covi, Douglas Solomon, and others
Supported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Sea Grant North Carolina and East Carolina University
For this report in full. . .
Http://www.ecu.edu/riskcomm