Kenya & R2P

Great Decisions, February 13, 2010

KENYA'S ETHNIC GROUPS

Population 34.5m, comprising more than 40 ethnic groups

KENYA: Context

• Population 34.5m, comprising more than 40 ethnic groups;

• Kikuyu largest but not majority (22%), traditionally dominant, converted to Christianity, western education, partners with British colonial rule;

• Mau Mau, strong role in governing, left Kikuyu as dominant group at independence

KENYA: EventOUTLINE OF EVENTS:• 1990: multiparty riots, donor demands for liberalization; • 1992, 1997: election violence; • 2002: Kibaki wins presidency, with Odinga’s support; some election

violence; • December 2007: election, Raila Odinga was leading by 1.2 mil votes

when Mwai Kibaki’s reelection victory was announced;– (Opposition 99 seats in Parliament, President’s party 43 seats)

• Tampering immediately denounced by international observers; • Immediately, rioting begins across the nation; Luo in west, Kalenjin

in central highlands; Kikuyu response violent, with little control by police, army; – ~1,300 dead, 600,000 displaced. ~ethnic cleansing?

KENYA: Mediation

Regional Authorities, Moral Authority & Respected Leaders:

• Pressure from Desmond Tutu, other African leaders, including Tanzania leaders;

• AU requested mediation by Kofi Annan• Team: Annan, Benjamin Mkapa (Tanz), Graca

Machel (Mozambique & S.Africa)• Support for settlement from donors & allies

Power Sharing Agreement

• Post of Prime Minister with real powers created;

• Two deputy PMs, one from each party, protected from arbitrary dismissal;

• Results? Violence ended; systematic changes have not been made, Odinga’s supporters few gains,

• tensions remain

R2P?

• Memories of Rwanda and Bosnia clear to Annan;

• Destruction & disintegration in Region (Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan) created a sense of Urgency;

• R2P an implicit, not explicit issue

What is R2P?

• A recently developed concept in IR which attempts to enforce a State’s responsibilities toward its own population, and to codify the circumstances which justify humanitarian intervention

• Includes violence, especially war crimes, genocide, ethnic cleansing, crimes against humanity

Issues?

• State Sovereignty• UN Charter: “Domestic Jurisdiction”• Eroding distinction between International and

Domestic issues• Failure of most attempts to “internationalize”

domestic policy• Obstacles to “peace keeping” and

humanitarian intervention

Obstacles to Humanitarian Intervention:

• Institutional Obstacles– Neutrality of IGO – suspicion of interveners’ motives– “Will” of members– Cost, in money and political capital

Obstacles, cont’d

• Pragmatic Obstacles – Uncertainty re: actual situation– Local assistance– Numbers of refugees, incidence of disease or

famine– Resources:

remote areas & supply lineslanguageskilled workers

Where does this leave us with R2P?