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Key Linkages Between Agriculture & Sanitation:

New OpportunitiesArno Rosemarin

Research & Communications ManagerEcoSanRes Programme

Stockholm Environment InstituteUMB June 4, 2008

The Agriculture Challenge• 800 million people in 46 countries malnourished • each day 40,000 die of hunger and hunger-related diseases• famine threatens 9 African countries, 20 million lives at risk• 75-80% of Africa's farmland is degraded• Africa loses 30-60kg of nutrients/ha/yr - highest rate in world• the highest rates of depletion: Guinea, Congo, Angola,

Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda at 60kg/ha• 2002/03 Sub-Saharan Africa used 8kg fertiliser/ha• compared to South America (80kg), North America (98kg),

Western Europe (175kg), East Asia (202kg), South Africa (61 kg) & North Africa (69kg)

• cost of fertiliser was US $150/t in 2006 and is now 3-5 times higher

• in landlocked African countries it was $600/t in 2006 due to poor transport infrastructure - rail & road and is now 4-5 times higher

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Geo-4 UNEP, 2007

Biofuels: Start of A New Green Revolution?

• of the 50 poorest countries in the world, 38 are net importers of petroleum & 25 import all their petroleum

• some spend up to six times as much on fuel as they do on health

• biofuels will become a primary cash crop occupying the most fertile soils while cereals and subsistence crops will occupy low-productivity soils

• Biofuels still only occupy a small percentage of arable lands but they have affected the world prices for feriliser– increases in costs for NPK – increase in food prices

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Geo-4 UNEP, 2007

Mega Biofuel Projects• Ethanol

– Brazil - 30 yrs experience & 1.5 million farmers grow sugar cane for fuel and increasing ethanol exports to 9.4 megatons by 2010 from 2 megatons in 2005

– new processing plants in Europe (UK, Holland, France, Spain, Germany, etc.) and US

– SEKAB (Sweden) proposed in Tanzania and Mozambique from bagasse (1 billion Euros investment)

• Biodiesel– Jatropha plantations in Indonesia, Laos, Vietnam, Myanmar,

Brazil, India, Africa, Peru, Nepal, Saudi Arabia (8 T/ha; 37% oil)– Castorseed (1 T/ha; 35-55% oil)– Camelina seed (1-2 T/ha; 30-37% oil)– Palm oil (5 T oil/ha) – Malaysia: leading oil palm planters building two refineries in

Rotterdam to process >1 million tonnes of palm oil/yr– Rapeseed (3 T/ha)

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Biofuels in Africa - Following Brazil’s Example?• Mozambique in 2007 increased ethanol production by

60% to 170 million gallons – $400 million in new investments from Brazil

• Tanzania - British Sun Biofuels - $20 million invested in 9,000 ha jatropha

• West African Development Bank (BOAD) - Indian Gov -$250 million for biofuels

• Nigeria building >24 ethanol plants by 2010 - Brazil assistance

• South Africa’s biofuel strategy 2013 4.5% of liquid road transport fuels

• South Africa Regional Hunger and Vulnerability Program – 2006 rural price for foodstuffs linked to biofuel production (grain,

oils, sugar) rose in price by 12%• 15 African countries formed the Pan-African Non-

Petroleum Producers Association (led in Senegal) (2006)

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BDI transport index

ICIS May 29, 2008

Diammonium Phosphate

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ICIS May 29, 2008

ICIS May 29, 2008

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Trends in Global Fertiliser Consumption

NY Times May 2008

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Geopolitical Perils: Global Fertiliser Supply is Controlled by Just 8 Countries

• Nitrogen:– 97% of nitrogen fertilisers are from ammonia produced from

methane– natural gas available in >60 countries produce these fertilisers

• Phosphate:– from mined phosphate rock– 3 countries extract 77% of the world’s product: Morocco &

Western Sahara, China and USA• Potassium:

– from mined potassium salts– global potassium supply is limited to 5 countries – Canada,

Russia, Germany, Belarus and Brazil

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Sulfuric Acid Relative Production Distribution

Phosphate Rock Reserves, 1997-2006 (from USGS summaries)

0

2 000 000

4 000 000

6 000 000

8 000 000

10 000 000

12 000 000

14 000 000

16 000 000

18 000 000

20 000 000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

1000

tons

pho

spha

te ro

ck

Other countries

Tunisia

Togo

Syria

South Africa

Senegal

Russia

Morocco and W. Sahara

Kazakhstan

Jordan

Israel

India

Egypt

China

Canada

Brazil

Australia

United States

China

Morocco

US

South Africa

Jordan

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Mine Production of Phosphate Rock, 1994-2006 (from USGS)

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

1000

tons

pho

spha

te ro

ck

Other countries

Tunisia

Togo

Syria

South Africa

Senegal

Russia

Morocco and W. Sahara

Kazakhstan

Jordan

Israel

India

Egypt

China

Canada

Brazil

Australia

United States

US

China

Morocco

Russia

Tunisia

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Other countries

United States

Tunisia

Togo

Syria

South Africa

Senegal

Russia

Morocco and W. Sahara

Jordan

Israel

India

Egypt

China

Canada

Brazil

Australia

years left at 2% annual increase

Phosphate Rock - Years of Extraction Remaining Based on Current Economic Reserves from 2006 (2% annual increase)

Source: USGS

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One day’s urine from an adult produces a kilo of foodOne year’s urine is enough to fertilise 300-400m2 of crop

Aquamor, Zimbabwe

Maize crop 31 Jan 2005, Epworth (Harare)Maize crop 31 Jan 2005, Epworth (Harare)untreated maize (leftuntreated maize (left--side)side)urineurine--treated maize (righttreated maize (right--side)side)

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Sub-Saharan Africa Self-Sufficient Fertiliser Supply

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

DevelopedRegions

East Asia Eurasia LatinAmerica and

theCarribbean

North Africa Oceania South-eastAsia

SouthernAsia

Sub-saharanAfrica

West Asia

Pote

ntia

lly R

ecyc

led

Nut

rient

s as

%

of U

tiliz

atio

n fo

r Tot

al P

opul

atio

n n

200

2

Nitrogen PhosphorusSource: FAOstat (2005)

China

India

USA

Indonesia

Brazil

Pakistan

Russia

Bangladesh

Japan

Nigeria

Mexico

Germany

Vietnam

Philippines

EgyptTurkey

Ethiopia

Iran

Thailand

France

UK

Italy

DR Congo

Ukraine

Myanmar

Rep. of Korea

South Africa

Colombia

Spain

PolandArgentina

Tanzania

Sudan

Kenya

Canada

Algeria Morocco

Peru UzbekistanVenezuela

Uganda

Nepal

Malaysia

Saudi Arabia

DPR Korea

Romania

Ghana

Australia

Sri Lanka

Mozambique

Syria

Madagascar

Cote d'Ivoire

Netherlands

Cameroon

Chile

Kazakhstan

Zimbabwe

Ecuador

Burkina Faso

Mali

Guatemala

MalawiNiger

Cuba

Greece

Zambia

Serbia & Montenegro

Belgium

Czech Rep.

Portugal

Belarus

Hungary

Senegal

Tunisia

Sweden

Bolivia

Dominican Rep.Guinea

Chad

RwandaHaiti

Austria

Bulgaria

Switzerland

Honduras

Burundi

Benin

El Salvador

Israel

Paraguay

Laos

Libya Slovakia

Denmark

Nicaragua

Jordan

Finland

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

10 100 1000 10000 100000

Annual Fertilzer Nitrogen Utilized (grams per capita)

Pote

ntia

l Ann

ual N

itrog

en R

ecyc

led

from

Hum

an E

xcre

ta

(gra

ms

per c

apita

)

N at 3,000 kcal/day diet

"Balanced" Utilization and Recycling of N

Source: FAOstat (2005)

Nitrogen chemical fertiliser utilized and potential recycled using ecological sanitation (2002)(countries with population greater than five million)

undernourishedunderfertilised

overnourishedoverfertilised

undernourishedoverfertilised

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Shift from Commodity-Based to Resource-Based Agro-planning in Developing Countries

• need to educate and encourage farmers to adopt resource-based planning

• based on principles of economics, employment and ecology• how the available land and water resources can best be utilized to

achieve maximum and sustainable economic • diversification into commercial crops (eg fruits and vegetables)• generate increases in on-farm employment and incomes• stimulus to downstream agro-industries• central is the empowerment of rural women• skill development in seed production, horticulture, vegetables &

poultry• promotion of micro-credit and savings programmes to generate

capital to establish small rural enterprises• it is within this context that the alternative fertiliser sources

need to be placed• productive sanitation can provide a resilient, readily available

and cheap source of nutrients for this large stakeholder group

www.ecosanres.org

Arno Rosemarin, SEI