key telecoms challenges & disruptions 2014
DESCRIPTION
Snapshot of a set of key challenges, opportunities, myths & misconceptions in the telecoms industry. Thought-provoking soundbites on voice, Net Neutrality, mobile broadband & other topicTRANSCRIPT
Key technology trends & challenges for
communications providers
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
May 2014
[email protected] @disruptivedean
About Disruptive Analysis
London-based tech analyst house & strategic consulting firm
Cross-silo, contrarian, independent
Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors
Internal workshops & brainstorms
Clients include many top telcos, vendors, webcos & startups Orange, Telenor, VZ, T-Mobile, SingTel, SKT, NTT, Belgacom, Cisco, Ericsson, Huawei,
ALU, Oracle, Genband, Qualcomm, Celcom, Amdocs, IBM, Ofcom, GSMA
Speaker at 30+ events per year in Europe, US & Asia
Reports on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, WebRTC etc
New report on “Non-Neutral Broadband Models”
Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014 May 2014
Mobile data: Tsunami or just normal rising tide?
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3G/4G Smartphone data use
• Disruptive Analysis has doubts on realism of some traffic forecasts (esp. Cisco VNI)
• Growth manageable with pricing, small cells, LTE, LTE-A. 5G is mostly hype for now
• “Spectrum crunch” narrative highly questionable (landgrab vs broadcast?)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Growing usage per smartphone
Growing # smartphone subs
?
NB 2012-13 subs growth possibly skewed by
older smartphones without data plans
Smartphone data use growth year-on-year
c20-30% growth/user/yr
Source: Ericsson, Disruptive Analysis
Network Neutrality: storm in a teacup?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014 May 2014
Red Herring Neutral-ish & maybe
unworkable
• Few realistic scenarios beyond zero-rating
• Lots of scope for failure
• Only winners will be the lawyers
• Blocking = Unwinnable tech arms-race
Some zero-rating is
feasible (Rev=Zero)
Impossible wishful-
thinking
Low-end users in
emerging markets
Two charts you’ll never see…
Calls by purpose
Gossip
Meeting up
Flirting
B2C Cust Svc
B2B internal
Spam
Showing off
Work
Wasting time
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Must have
Nice to have
Meh. I want free
I'll call back
Importance of QoS, % calls
Diagrams are illustrative, not actual data
• Telecom industry doesn’t understand demand for its core product
• Makes it impossible to defend vs. competition & substitution
OTT voice & messaging: pricing & purpose
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014 May 2014
Voice Messaging
Standalone
“call/send”
model
Standalone
other model
Embedded
in app/web
WebRTC
SMS
iMessage FaceTime
Audio
FaceTime
Video
Skype
Messenger
LINE
Hangouts
GTalk
PSTN,
VoLTE
RCS
Flash
Lync API
Siri
iOS/Android
notifications
Video
Free or almost-free
Better experience
Fits use-cases & contexts
Fast-evolving
Viral / cool / peer-group
Partner? Own OTT?
New sources of revenue
VoLTE… eventually… patchily
Limited deployment of VoLTE so far
Live in 3 South Korea networks & quite widely used
Huge work undertaken, dense cell networks (inc. indoor), cooperation
Small MetroPCS deployment, halted after T-Mo acquisition
AT&T – limited launch May 2014 (1 phone, 3 areas)
Small “Press release” launches on O2 DE & CSL HK
China Mobile demo + aggressive 2014/15 plans
Extremely complex. Many separate problems & issues
Most LTE operators sticking to CSFB for now
Against a backdrop of falling demand & revenue for telephony
No obvious VoLTE benefits beyond HD & minor spectrum gain
RCS / joyn – zombie technology. Dead but still shambling
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014 May 2014
Beyond OTT apps: WebRTC= next disruption
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014 May 2014
Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report
Policy & innovation…… …..vs. politics
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014 May 2014
Strategy
Mobile broadband
Telco Depts
In-house apps & content
Marketing / Product
IT Core network
Radio network
Devices
Legal
Tensions
Tensions
Distance
• Design skills
• Software skills
• Cannibalisation
• “Standards”
• Risk-averse
• Legacy tech
Tensions
Other “Disruptive” trends & opinions
GSMA, 3GPP, ETNO etc. often a hindrance, not a help
NFC is a pointless waste of time, especially for telcos
SDN & NFV may be game-changers, but patchy & slow
IoT is going to need more IT/solutions skills than connectivity
Privacy & encryption becoming more important post-Snowden
Reach & impact of Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Google,
Microsoft cannot be underestimated. Watch capex & R&D
Lots going on with enterprise & cloud communications
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014 May 2014
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014 May 2014
Also **NEW**: Non-Neutral Mobile
Internet Business Models Report
Also on request: private workshops &
expert advisory retainers
For details email
www.disruptive-analysis.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
Skype:disruptiveanalysis
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014 May 2014