kfw ipex-bank gmbhœber-die-kfw-ipex... · (%) 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 total revenues from...

KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH

Primary Credit Analyst:

Michal Selbka, Frankfurt +49 (0) 69-33999-300; [email protected]

Secondary Contacts:

Felix Winnekens, Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-245; [email protected]

Gabriel Zwicklhuber, Frankfurt + 49(0)6933999169; [email protected]

Table Of Contents

Major Rating Factors

Outlook

Rationale

Related Criteria

Related Research

WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT AUGUST 13, 2019 1

KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH

SACP bbb+

Anchor bbb+

Business

PositionModerate -1

Capital and

EarningsStrong +1

Risk Position Moderate -1

FundingAbove

Average

+1

Liquidity Strong

+ Support +6

ALACSupport 0

GRE Support +6

GroupSupport 0

SovereignSupport 0

+AdditionalFactors 0

Issuer Credit Rating

AA+/Stable/A-1+

Major Rating Factors

Strengths: Weaknesses:

• Extremely high likelihood of extraordinary

government support.

• Strong implicit and explicit benefits of ownership by

German development bank KfW

(AAA/Stable/A-1+), especially in terms of funding

and liquidity.

• Important role of exposure guarantees provided by

export credit agencies or other sovereign-related

entities worldwide.

• Volatile profitability, also due to high foreign

currency sensitivity.

• Limited business diversity as a specialized lending

institution in international export and project

finance.

• Meaningful exposure to the maritime portfolio.


Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook on Germany-based KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH (IPEX) reflects S&P Global Ratings' expectation that

the bank's ownership structure and its sole owner KfW's strong commitment to the bank will keep its business

position stable over the next two years. Moreover, we believe the likelihood of timely and sufficient support for

IPEX from the German government will stay extremely high over the same period. The outlook also incorporates

our current view that the EU Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD), in connection with European

competition law, is unlikely to meaningfully hinder the German government from providing timely support to IPEX

via KfW.

Considering our assessment of an extremely high likelihood of support by Germany (unsolicited,

AAA/Stable/A-1+), we do not anticipate that small movements in the bank's stand-alone credit profile (SACP) will

affect the ratings. The SACP would need to change by four notches in either direction to prompt us to take a rating

action on IPEX. Nevertheless, we believe that the strength of IPEX's individual credit standing supports our view

that IPEX will remain an important, valued, and well-supported entity for KfW to deliver its mission.

Downside scenario

We could downgrade IPEX if we considered that support from Germany through KfW was weakening, and that

IPEX had no alternative forms of support. We do not anticipate that this will occur, however. We could consider a

negative rating action if, for example, any EU regulatory initiatives were to introduce meaningful barriers to

extraordinary government support for IPEX but we currently do not see any.

Upside scenario

We consider any further positive rating action unlikely at this stage, absent an unexpected increase in IPEX's role

for the German government or any substantial strengthening of IPEX's SACP.

Rationale

We base our ratings on IPEX on our expectations that IPEX will remain tightly integrated with KfW and continue to

implement economic policy via export promotion. Therefore, we see an extremely high likelihood for extraordinary

support from its parent, and ultimately from the German state, if needed.

Our view of IPEX's intrinsic creditworthiness is captured by the 'bbb+' SACP. This SACP reflects IPEX's business

model as a specialized lending institution in export and project finance, which we consider to be more vulnerable to an

adverse external operating environment than that of a typical, diversified German bank. On balance, the business

exhibits better geographic and sector diversification than direct peers in a similar area of financing.

We consider IPEX's maintenance of a solid capital ratio as an important feature. We expect a slight decline in our

risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio (our measure of a bank's future capital adequacy) to 12.0%-13.0% in the next 12-24

months, from 14.6% at end-2018. The anticipated decline results from new business generation plans and the gradual

phasing out of core capital recognition of the IPEX hybrids that KfW owns. At the same time, our risk position

assessment reflects IPEX's concentration risks and a meaningful exposure to the higher-risk maritime and oil and gas

industries, which are not captured separately in our RAC framework. Also, IPEX's business is currently exposed to


KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH

various global trade-related risks.

IPEX's funding and liquidity profile is stronger than that of German peers thanks to substantial ongoing benefits from

KfW's ownership. The bank's funding is almost exclusively provided by KfW, and the bank benefits from ample

liquidity line commitments from its parent.

Anchor:'bbb+', one notch lower than that for banks operating exclusively in Germany

The 'bbb+' anchor draws on our Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) methodology and our view of the

weighted-average economic risk across the countries in which IPEX operates, based on the geographic distribution of

its total credit exposures at default.

About 70% of IPEX's ultimate geographic risk exposures (after guarantees) are within markets with a higher economic

risk than that of Germany. These include other European countries (40%, including the U.K.) and the rest of the world

(30%) The weighted-average economic risk score rounds to '3' on a scale of '1' to '10' ('1' representing the lowest risk

and '10' the highest).

The industry risk score of '3' is based solely on IPEX's home market Germany. IPEX and its parent KfW benefit from

Germany's extensive funding market, as well as from material strengthening of banking regulation and supervision

stemming from the ongoing EU-wide regulatory harmonization and convergence under Basel III.

Table 1

KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH--Key Figures

--Year ended Dec. 31--

(Mil. €) 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014

Adjusted assets 26,900.0 25,156.4 29,164.6 28,369.3 26,149.8

Customer loans (gross) 24,141.4 22,327.0 25,540.4 24,746.0 22,821.8

Adjusted common equity 3,268.1 3,177.6 2,842.3 2,830.6 2,650.3

Operating revenues 502.4 381.0 501.1 574.5 526.0

Noninterest expenses 244.3 234.2 216.9 216.0 192.6

Core earnings 253.7 68.7 116.8 180.4 180.5

Business position: Challenging international business environment for a specialist lender

Since its spin-off from KfW in 2008, IPEX operates as a fully-owned subsidiary of KfW. IPEX is responsible for the

export and project finance business of KfW and remains operationally closely linked to its parent.

In our view, IPEX's business model as a specialized lending institution in export and international project finance is

inherently exposed to cyclical sectors. However, despite an increased exposure to wind-solar energy lending, we

believe its overall diverse business areas enable the bank to follow different business cycles. This differentiates IPEX

from more narrowly specialized peers, such as banks active only in transportation finance (DVB Bank or Danmarks

Skibskredit).

With total assets of €27.3 billion as of Dec. 31, 2018, IPEX offers corporate loans and trade, export, and project finance

in sectors such as shipping, transportation, infrastructure, and energy to German and other European clients.


KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH

Chart 1

The bank plays an important role in supporting Germany's large export-driven economy, and it underwrites and

manages promotional export programs on behalf of KfW, extending its policy programs. This also partially explains

why the bank cannot diversify more or exit its involvement in various segments, for instance maritime, despite higher

risks, because it has to continue fulfilling its policy role.

IPEX's stable customer base is a combination of specialized midsize companies and leading German and European

exporters, for which the bank provides tailor-made financing solutions. These long-standing customer relationships

provide stability to IPEX's business model. In addition, IPEX's franchise is supported by expertise in arranging export

credit agency (ECA) covered lending.

We note a modest increase of around 8% in the bank's loans and advances throughout 2018, resulting predominantly

from satisfactory development in new business and from U.S. dollar appreciation. We expect new business will

continue to grow through 2019 and 2020, approaching total assets of €30 billion over the next years. Surpassing the

threshold would mean that IPEX would qualify as a "significant" institution under the ECB's direct supervision

recognition criteria. Subsequently, IPEX's supervision would move from Bafin to the European Central Bank's (ECB's).

At the same time, we note plans of an increased portion of new business volume to be syndicated to investors, limiting

the balance sheet impact of further growth.


KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH

Table 2

KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH--Business Position


(%) 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014

Total revenues from business line (currency in millions) 502.4 381.0 501.1 574.5 526.0

Commercial banking/total revenues from business line 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core earnings/average adjusted common equity 7.87 2.28 4.12 6.58 7.05

Capital and earnings: Strong capitalization, but earnings remain vulnerable

We assess IPEX's capitalization as a rating strength, which mainly reflects our projection that the bank's RAC ratio

before diversification will remain between 12.0% and 13.0% at end-2021, compared with 14.6% in 2018. The decline

reflects our expectations that new business growth and the continued phase-out of equity content of hybrid

instruments outweigh earnings reinvestments. At the same time, we recognize the uncertainties in IPEX's balance

sheet size associated with exchange-rate fluctuations and its influence on the exposure's size.

As part of the profit transfer agreement, IPEX had been transferring its entire annual profits under German commercial

law to its direct legal owner, KfW Beteiligungsholding GmbH. From the €238 million pre-tax 2018 profit generated by

IPEX, €149 million had been reinvested in the bank in June 2019. The differential of €89 million related mostly to

imputed taxes, €18 million of which to interest expenses on KfW's silent partner contribution. We expect that partial

reinvestment of the transferred profits will be maintained in the future. At the same time, we see additional direct

capital injections from KfW, as unlikely over the next two years, given the bank's sufficient capital base.

For 2019-2020, we factor in high new business growth of around 5%, combined with an average net interest margin of

around 1.10%-1.15%, in line with 2018. We also believe that risk costs will increase toward a more normalized level of

about €80 million per year. We currently do not foresee the more challenging areas of IPEX's operating environment

improving--particularly shipping or oil and gas.

IPEX's capital includes €1 billion in hybrids (provided by KfW). However, these hybrid instruments are being gradually

excluded from the regulatory core capital ratio under Basel III. We are similarly phasing them out from IPEX's total

adjusted capital (TAC). As of December 2018, 40% or €400 million worth of the hybrid instruments were still included

in TAC.

We assess IPEX's earnings quality and capacity as its main weakness. With IPEX's business model, the bank's net

profits are prone to marked volatility. Reflecting the bank's concentration risk and exposure to cyclical industries,

potential loan-loss impairments might represent significant volatility risk, particularly in light of only modest

profitability. We estimate IPEX's three-year average earnings buffer, which measures the capacity for bank's earnings

to cover normalized losses, will remain at about 40 basis points.


KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH

Chart 2

Charge-offs are a reflection of past years' actually realized credit losses and they may demonstrate the potential size of

losses in an adverse market scenario versus the relatively low-level of the currently reported costs of risk. As chart 3

shows, provisions were only higher for IPEX in 2013 over the last six years, if compared with the charge-offs reported

for the same period.


KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH

Chart 3

Table 3

KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH--Capital And Earnings


(%) 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014

Tier 1 capital ratio 20.5 23.6 17.7 15.7 15.2

S&P Global Ratings’ RAC ratio before diversification 14.6 17.6 12.8 12.2 11.8

S&P Global Ratings’ RAC ratio after diversification 14.4 16.3 13.1 12.5 12.6

Adjusted common equity/total adjusted capital 89.1 86.4 82.6 80.2 76.8

Net interest income/operating revenues 58.1 77.1 67.0 58.1 56.8

Fee income/operating revenues 33.4 39.3 30.5 32.7 35.1

Market-sensitive income/operating revenues 2.6 (17.9) 1.5 8.0 7.3

Noninterest expenses/operating revenues 48.6 61.5 43.3 37.6 36.6

Preprovision operating income/average assets 1.0 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.3

Core earnings/average managed assets 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7


KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH

Table 4

KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH--Risk-Adjusted Capital Framework Data

(Mil. €) Exposure*

Basel III

RWA

Average Basel III

RW(%)

S&P Global

Ratings RWA

Average S&P Global

Ratings RW (%)

Credit risk

Government & central banks 7,486 98 1 330 4

Of which regional governments

and local authorities

11 0 0 0 4

Institutions and CCPs 467 691 148 511 109

Corporate 25,010 15,985 64 22,653 91

Retail 6 4 75 3 59

Of which mortgage 0 0 75 0 20

Securitization§ 0 0 0 0 0

Other assets† 213 213 100 192 90

Total credit risk 33,182 16,992 51 23,689 71

Credit valuation adjustment 0 0 0

Total credit valuation adjustment -- 0 -- 0 --

Market Risk 0 0 0

Equity in the banking book 48 177 370 536 1,123

Trading book market risk -- 0 -- 0 --

Total market risk -- 177 -- 536 --

Operational risk 0 0 0

Total operational risk -- 754 -- 942 --

Exposure

Basel III

RWA

Average Basel II

RW (%)

S&P Global

Ratings RWA

% of S&P Global

Ratings RWA

Diversification adjustments

RWA before diversification -- 18,027 -- 25,168 100

Total Diversification/

Concentration Adjustments

-- -- -- 351 1

RWA after diversification -- 18,027 -- 25,518 101

Tier 1 capital Tier 1 ratio (%)

Total adjusted

capital

S&P Global Ratings

RAC ratio (%)

Capital ratio

Capital ratio before adjustments 3,667 20.3 3,668 14.6

Capital ratio after adjustments‡ 3,667 20.3 3,668 14.4

Exposure at default, S&P Global Ratings' RWA, and average S&P Global Ratings' RW figures reflect an analytical adjustment for recognition of

sovereign guarantees. *Exposure at default. §Securitization Exposure includes the securitization tranches deducted from capital in the regulatory

framework. †Exposure and S&P Global Ratings’ risk-weighted assets for equity in the banking book include minority equity holdings in financial

institutions. ‡Adjustments to Tier 1 ratio are additional regulatory requirements (e.g. transitional floor or Pillar 2 add-ons). RWA--Risk-weighted

assets. RW--Risk weight. RAC--Risk-adjusted capital. Sources: Company data as of 'Dec. 31 2018', S&P Global Ratings.

Risk position: High concentration in export finance and within single sectors

IPEX's moderate risk position reflects inherent risks in its export finance business and concentration risks in single

sectors that are not adequately reflected in our RAC calculation.

We assess risk concentrations as the dominant weakness in the bank's risk position. In recent years, the bank has


KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH

focused on increasing the granularity of its risk exposure, but high single-name and single-ticket concentration remains

intrinsic to the business model. This is also a reflection of the relatively large size of IPEX's corporate customers.

Moreover, IPEX's export finance products are typically more complex than mainstream loans, and therefore more

difficult to manage. We acknowledge that the ultimate risk is largely reduced through guarantees from ECAs,

especially for the more challenging projects or geographic regions. We believe that syndication and risk sharing will

gain further relevance for IPEX's business model.

In 2018, IPEX's new business volume of €17.7 billion was higher than the initially planned €16.3 billion, despite a

competitive market environment. Growth has been mostly driven by the energy and environment and trade finance

segments, which we anticipate will remain the largest contributors to new business volume over 2019-2020.

In our view, IPEX's exposure to the maritime sector, with an exception of the more stable cruise ship segment, will

remain a burden on the bank's asset quality. The oil and gas segment, especially its offshore portfolio, may continue to

be a source of increased losses over time too. Positively, we note that IPEX has almost completely unwound its legacy

KG-Portfolio to €66 million as of December 2018 (from, for example, €1.1 billion still in 2013).

IPEX's ratio of NPLs to total loans improved slightly to 2.4% as of Dec. 31, 2018, down from 2.8% as of end-2017 (see

chart 4), representing a decline in NPLs to €572 million at end-2018 from €631 million at end-2017 on the back of

asset sales and compensation payments.

However, given current geopolitical and global economic uncertainties and still high structural issues in the shipping

industry, we expect NPLs to return to a more normalized level of above 3% over the next 12-24 months.


KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH

Chart 4

Despite half of IPEX's portfolio being denominated in foreign currency, foreign currency risk and interest rate risk are

both low because of broadly matched funding. To match the assets denominated in U.S. dollar, part of the equity

capital--funds for general banking risks--is denominated in U.S. dollar (as according to section 340g of the German

Commercial Code [HGB]). Risks from the bank's securities portfolio are minor, reflecting the portfolio's small size.

Table 5

KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH--Risk Position


(%) 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014

Growth in customer loans 8.1 (12.6) 3.2 8.4 8.0

Total diversification adjustment/S&P Global Ratings’ RWA before diversification 1.4 7.5 (2.5) (2.7) (5.8)

Total managed assets/adjusted common equity (x) 8.3 8.0 10.3 10.1 9.9

New loan loss provisions/average customer loans 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.4

Net charge-offs/average customer loans 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.1

Gross nonperforming assets/customer loans + other real estate owned 2.4 2.8 2.5 4.0 5.7

Loan loss reserves/gross nonperforming assets 51.7 50.9 63.1 39.7 45.2


KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH

Funding and liquidity: Strong and ongoing support from KfW

IPEX's comfortable funding and liquidity position benefits from the implicit and explicit support from the bank's parent.

Out of IPEX's €21.7 billion total debt funding year-end 2018, €21.5 billion is attributable to ongoing funding from KfW

based on a refinancing agreement. This arrangement allows IPEX to access funding on market-based terms at all

times. Thanks to KfW's strong standing in capital markets and its federal government guarantee, we believe IPEX will

continue to enjoy unimpeded access to funding also in periods of market stress.

IPEX's funding mix consists of promissory note loans and registered covered bonds being acquired by KfW. We also

note that IPEX equalizes its refinancing profile with the financed transactions in terms of maturity and currency.

In line with our expectations, IPEX's stable funding ratio of 76% as of Dec. 31, 2018, remained below the 100% that

usually signals a well-balanced funding profile. IPEX relies heavily on short-term funding (that matures within one

year), which we do not treat as available stable funding in the calculation of our stable funding ratio. However, IPEX's

short-term funding is provided by its parent and therefore, we do not consider this as a source of concern.

Our assessment of IPEX's liquidity position as strong is chiefly based on ongoing liquidity support provided by KfW,

mitigating the bank's weak one-year horizon liquidity ratio of 0.32x as of Dec. 31, 2018 (broad liquid assets to

short-term wholesale funding).

Over 2018, IPEX has reduced its high quality liquid assets portfolio, comprising KfW securities, from €2.0 billion to

€1.5 billion. Over the same period, IPEX entered into further irrevocable credit facilities with KfW to a total availability

of €1.4 billion in order to fulfil the regulatory liquidity coverage ratio.

Table 6

KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH--Funding And Liquidity


(%) 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014

Core deposits/funding base 0.9 1.1 1.5 2.3 1.6

Customer loans (net)/customer deposits 12,214.7 9,500.2 6,748.3 4,381.5 6,170.6

Long-term funding ratio 72.2 74.4 73.2 72.2 71.2

Stable funding ratio 76.1 80.8 80.3 80.0 79.3

Short-term wholesale funding/funding base 32.3 30.1 30.5 31.8 33.2

Broad liquid assets/short-term wholesale funding (x) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5

Short-term wholesale funding/total wholesale funding 32.0 29.7 30.2 31.6 32.6

Support: Six notches of uplift to the SACP, owing to IPEX's government-related entity status

We regard IPEX as a government-related entity (GRE) in Germany. The long-term issuer credit rating is six notches

higher than the SACP, reflecting our view that there is an extremely high likelihood of timely and sufficient

extraordinary government support from KfW, and ultimately from the German state if needed. Our assessment is

based on IPEX's:

• Very important role for KfW and ultimately for Germany in supporting public policy as a major export finance

institution; and


KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH

• Integral link with its sole owner, KfW, which is also a GRE.

We do not envisage that the bank's GRE status and our view of an extremely high likelihood of extraordinary

government support will change in the near future. Although IPEX has no public policy role in its commercial business,

the bank is engaged in promotional lending on a trustee basis in the name of KfW and the German government.

Promotion of export financing is a key economic and political objective for the German government, reflecting the

country's strong export sector, which generates about 47% of GDP.

IPEX, similar to many of its GRE peers in the EU, is within the scope of the BRRD, which includes restrictions on

government support. However, we currently see no material impediment to timely support for IPEX from KfW.

Related Criteria

• Criteria - Financial Institutions - General: Risk-Adjusted Capital Framework Methodology, July 20, 2017

• General Criteria: Methodology For Linking Long-Term And Short-Term Ratings, April 7, 2017

• Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Bank Rating Methodology And Assumptions: Additional Loss-Absorbing

Capacity, April 27, 2015

• General Criteria: Rating Government-Related Entities: Methodology And Assumptions, March 25, 2015

• Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Bank Hybrid Capital And Nondeferrable Subordinated Debt Methodology

And Assumptions, Jan. 29, 2015

• General Criteria: Group Rating Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013

• Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Quantitative Metrics For Rating Banks Globally: Methodology And

Assumptions, July 17, 2013

• Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Banks: Rating Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011

• Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions,

Nov. 9, 2011

• General Criteria: Use Of CreditWatch And Outlooks, Sept. 14, 2009

Related Research

• Germany 'AAA/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable, April 12, 2019

• Banking Industry country Risk Assessment Update: July, July 30, 2019

• Full analysis: KfW, Dec. 20, 2018

• Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: Germany, Nov. 2, 2018


KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH

Anchor Matrix

Industry

Risk

Economic Risk

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1 a a a- bbb+ bbb+ bbb - - - -

2 a a- a- bbb+ bbb bbb bbb- - - -

3 a- a- bbb+ bbb+ bbb bbb- bbb- bb+ - -

4 bbb+ bbb+ bbb+ bbb bbb bbb- bb+ bb bb -

5 bbb+ bbb bbb bbb bbb- bbb- bb+ bb bb- b+

6 bbb bbb bbb- bbb- bbb- bb+ bb bb bb- b+

7 - bbb- bbb- bb+ bb+ bb bb bb- b+ b+

8 - - bb+ bb bb bb bb- bb- b+ b

9 - - - bb bb- bb- b+ b+ b+ b

10 - - - - b+ b+ b+ b b b-

Ratings Detail (As Of August 13, 2019)*

KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH

Issuer Credit Rating AA+/Stable/A-1+

Issuer Credit Ratings History

27-May-2016 AA+/Stable/A-1+

25-Jan-2012 AA/Stable/A-1+

08-Dec-2011 AA/Watch Neg/A-1+

Sovereign Rating

Germany AAA/Stable/A-1+

Related Entities

KfW

Issuer Credit Rating AAA/Stable/A-1+

Commercial Paper

Foreign Currency A-1+

Senior Unsecured AAA

*Unless otherwise noted, all ratings in this report are global scale ratings. S&P Global Ratings’ credit ratings on the global scale are comparable

across countries. S&P Global Ratings’ credit ratings on a national scale are relative to obligors or obligations within that specific country. Issue and

debt ratings could include debt guaranteed by another entity, and rated debt that an entity guarantees.

Additional Contact:

Financial Institutions Ratings Europe; [email protected]


KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH


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