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Hold'em Brain by King Yao

Bluffing Spreadsheet

This is a spreadsheet with five tabs providing Expected Value analysis on different types of bluff issues.

The results will vary depending on the assumptions. I like to think of the assumptions as the ability

to read hands, and the Expected Value formulas as the ability to use the read to your advantage mathematiWithout the ability to read hands well, the Expected Value formulas would be useless. As they say,

with any formula, if you put garbage in, you get garbage out.

If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please email me at [email protected]

Directory

Tab Subject Title

1 Bluffing on River when beaten Should you bluff on the River if you are absolutely sure yo

2 Bluffing on River with a chance to win Should you bluff on the River if you still have a chance to

3 Breakeven analyss of Bluffing How often does your Bluff need to work for it to be a brea

4 Inducing a Bluff Inducing a Bluff

5 Complex Scenario A more complex scenario, bluffing & inducing a bluff

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ally.

u are beat?

win by checking?

keven play?

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Title: Should you bluff on the River if you are absolutely sure you are beat?

Assumptions:

Your are headsup, your opponent has checked and you are last to act on the River.

If you bet, your opponent will only call or fold, he will not raise. You are 100% sure he has a better han

Instructions:Type in the variables that have a yellow/cream background, the numbers with a green/blue background

the spreadsheet from the variables in the yellow background

Variables

Big bets in the pot before you consider betting: 10

Percentage that your opponent will fold if you bet: 15%

Results

Expected Value of bluffing in terms of big bets: 0.65

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than you.

are generated by

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than you.

enerated by

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Title: How often does your Bluff need to work for it to be a breakeven play?

Assumptions:

Your are headsup, your opponent has checked and you are last to act on the River.

If you bet, your opponent will only call or fold, he will not raise.

Instructions:Type in the variables that have a yellow/cream background, the numbers with a green/blue background are

the spreadsheet from the variables in the yellow background.

Variables

Big bets in the pot before you consider betting or raising 5

Bets you must put in, 1 for a bet, 2 for a raise 1

Results

Frequency of the bluff working for the bluff to be a breakeven play: 16.7%

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enerated by

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Title: Inducing a Bluff

Assumptions: you are headsup on the River and you are first to act. You are 100% sure you have the

you are not sure whether or not your opponent will call. You suspect he may be induced to bluff if yo

Since we are assuming you are 100% sure you have the best hand, the pot size is irrelevant since y

to you, all that is important is maximizing the amount your opponent puts into the pot on the River.

Instructions:

Type in the variables that have a yellow/cream background, the numbers with a green/blue backgrou

the spreadsheet from the variables in the yellow background.

Variables

He calls if you bet (assume he will never raise) 10%

He bets if you check 20%

He calls your raise if you check-raise 0%

Results

Expectancy of trying to induce a bluff: 0.20Expectancy of betting: 0.10

Given these assumptions, you should: Induce a Bluff

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best hand, but

u check.

u know it belongs,

d are generated by

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ance

onent

erated

king - unknown - a(2)

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