kinnevik 3 · 11/10/2016 · 2012 h2 2012 2013 at ipo oct 2016 capital invested by ... ¹ qliro...
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KINNEVIK 3.0
BUILDING THE BUSINESSES THAT PROVIDE MORE AND BETTER CHOICE10 November 2016
I. Our Investment Strategy
II. Our Next Generation Digital Brands
− Quikr
− Qliro Financial Services
− Betterment
− Babylon
III. Our Way Forward
AGENDA
SECTION I
OUR INVESTMENT STRATEGY
4
AN 80 YEAR-OLD ENTREPRENEURIAL INVESTMENT GROUP
1936Founded Digital
consumer sectors
Market Capitalisation
Investeecompanies
Aggregate valueof investee companies
Countries covered
Assets in emerging markets
5 year annualised total shareholder return
Investee companyemployees
E-Commerce & Marketplaces
Communication
Entertainment
Financial services
Healthcare
5 ~40%
~17%~€33bn~€6bn
30+ 80+ 80,000+
Source: Kinnevik data, FactSet as of 2016-09-30
Europe60%
LatAm25%
Africa 6%
Asia 5%
Russia & SIS 3%
North America 1%
NAV by region
5
KINNEVIK’S DIGITAL JOURNEY - OVER 30 YEARS OF BUILDING WORLD CLASS COMPANIES
2010 2016
EX
TE
RN
AL
DE
VE
LO
PM
EN
TS
KIN
NE
VIK
KE
Y M
ILE
ST
ON
ES
1980 1990
British Sky Broadcasting
2000
6
OUR PORTFOLIO TODAY – THREE GENERATIONS OF BUSINESSES
2.0ESTABLISHED
E-COMMERCE & MARKETPLACES
AND OTHER
Delivering fashion online to 19 million customers in 15
markets across Europe
Delivering fashion online to 9 million customers in 24 markets around the world
>96% of
Kinnevik’s
NAV
3.0NEW GENERATION
DIGITAL BRANDSIndia’s number one classifieds
platform
2014Kinnevik invested
Nordic payment and consumer financing
solution
2014
The US’ largest automated investing
service company
2016
UK based pioneering digital healthcare service provider
2016
1.0COMMUNICATION AND
ENTERTAINMENT
Delivering mobile services to
15 million customers in 9 markets in
Europe and Kazakhstan
Delivering mobile services to
58 million customers in 14 markets
in Africa and LatAm
Delivering digital entertainment to
1.2 million subscribers in 8 markets
in Europe
<4% of
Kinnevik’s
NAV
7
BRINGING EXISTING BUSINESS MODELS TO DEVELOPING MARKETS
INTERNET PENETRATION BY REGION
Source: International Telecommunications Union, World Bank, Statista
81%84%
United States
54% 62%
Latin America
74%76%
Western Europe
35%47%
Nigeria
28% 33%
MENA
50%87%
China
26%44%
India
38%52%
Asia Pacific
2015
2020
81 Number represents only subsector wealth management AuM2 Global healthcare marketSource: Statista, Kinnevik analysis
SHIFT FROM LIFESTYLE TO LIFE-ENHANCING SECTORS IN DEVELOPED MARKETS
8,000
33,000
600
Healthcare²
FinancialServices¹
Fashion
ONLINE PENETRATION ACROSS KEY CONSUMER SECTORS IN THE US
18%
1%
Online penetration
Current Kinnevik
investments
Market size, USDbn
Lif
est
yle
Lif
e-e
nh
an
cin
g
1%
9
A SYSTEMATIC APPROACH TO IDENTIFYING NEW INVESTMENTS
GLOBAL MACRO THEMES SECTORS & GEOGRAPHIES BUSINESSES1 2 3
The starting point for our approach is global consumer macro trends, setting the stage for long-term consumer demand
• Population size and growth
• GDP growth and currency stability
• Access to the Internet
• Deployment of new technologies (e.g. AI, AV, IOT)
• Hierarchy of consumer spending patterns
• Shifts in consumer time allocation
• Consumer willingness to transact online
Based on the global macro trends, we identify sectors and sub-sectors ripe for disruption…
• Sizeable
• Analogue
• Traditional
• Poor service
• Inefficient
…in geographies with the dynamics to build disruptive businesses
• Europe
• Selected Emerging Markets
• US
In the identified sectors and geographies, we select the business we want to back based on firm investment criteria
Market opportunity - Addresses a material, everyday consumer need with a significant profit pool
Entrepreneurs - Led by a talented and experienced team
Barriers to entry - High barriers to entry protect the business model from competition
Market leadership - Well positioned relative to peers
User engagement - Cohorts suggest the business is characterised by repeat customers
Technology - Places innovation and product development at its core
Path to profitability - The unit economics are positive and sustainable
Returns – Based on realistic projections, the entry price allows for appropriate risk-adjusted returns
Reputation – Only sectors that are compatible with Kinnevik’s values and companies that subscribe to our values
Ownership – Opportunity to own a material stake in the company over time and form long-term partnership with
10
A STRUCTURED APPROACH TO BUILDING THE NEXT GENERATION SUCCESS STORIES
The Kinnevik wayBuilding long-term sustainable businesses which combine growth, profitability
and a solid governance framework
Identifying the right consumer market
segments
Developing the best strategies
Recruiting the right people
Investing in the brands
Accessing global knowhow
Perfecting the route to market
DRIVING GROWTH AND PROFITABILITY… …WHILST IMPLEMENTING RIGOROUS GRC AND CR
Governance Risk Management
ComplianceCorporate
Responsibility
11
CASE STUDY – WE HAVE SUPPORTED ZALANDO SINCE 2010 BY ADDING VALUE AND PARTICIPATING IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS
• Large addressable market with high consumer internet adoption and spending power
• Low competition in German online fashion market and true opportunity to disrupt brick-and-mortar stores
• Proven model in more developed internet markets with attractive margin profile
INVESTMENT RATIONALE VALUE CREATION: PHASE 1
¹ Post-money valuation pre-IPO² Kinnevik invested at a valuation of EUR 2.8bn and other investors at EUR 3.9bn
PHASE 2 PHASE 3
Building the platform
• Significant investments in brand awareness and distribution infrastructure
• Desktop majority of traffic
• Focus on broadening product offering and signing new brands
From warehouse to fashion destination
• Successful IPO as Europe’s leading online fashion retailer
• Shift from desktop to mobile and heavy marketing investments
• Focus on improving customer experience and fulfilment capabilities
Platform strategy: shaping the ecosystem for fashion
• Becoming the operational system connecting the fashion industry
• Creating an ecosystem benefitting customers, brands, intermediaries, bloggers etc.
• Focus on technology, a crucial competitive advantage
EVOLUTION OF VALUATION AND CAPITAL INVESTED BY KINNEVIK
0.8 1.22.8 2.8
3.9²4.9
10.0
H22010
2011 H12012
H22012
2013 At IPO Oct 2016
Capital invested by Kinnevik in each round (EURm)
47 65 129 291 100 n/a n/a
Equity value (EURbn)¹
SECTION II
OUR NEXT GENERATION DIGITAL BRANDS
13
OUR NEXT GENERATION OF BRANDS THAT ASPIRE TO BE THE LEADERS OF TOMORROW
Cash flow breakeven
MATURITY PROFILE
Concept High Potential Emerging Winners Market Leaders
VENTURE GROWTHSEED LATE STAGE GROWTH
(2008)
(2008)
(2014)
(2014¹)
¹ Qliro incubated within CDON, itself founded in 1999
14
QUIKR – DELIVERING MANAGED MARKETPLACES IN INDIA
VISIONCreate online marketplaces to bring ease and efficiency to transactions in key consumer categories characterised by fragmented supply, high offline transaction costs and friction
INVESTMENT RATIONALE
• Opportunity to enter second largest internet market through a sector that is attractive and well-understood
• Strong team with visionary entrepreneur supported by experienced management bench
• Proven track record of innovation and adaptability to deliver products relevant to local needs
• Leadership positions in key categories with largest addressable markets and highest monetisation potential
• Significantly capitalised in partnership with marquee investor base
DEVELOPMENT OF GROWTH METRIC
AND INVESTMENT
HISTORY
PARTNERSHIP WITH KINNEVIK
• Applied knowhow from classifieds to enhance focus on quality and engagement metrics
• Supported transformation to category-specific verticalisation and shift to monetisation
• Assisted in evaluation of strategic and consolidation opportunities
• Led implementation of GRC framework and processes
Q1 FY16 Q2 FY16 Q3 FY16 Q4 FY16 Q1 FY17 Q2 FY17
Q1 2014 39
Q3 2014 54
Q1 2015 94
Q2 2015 114
+145%
Partner investorsKinnevik investments (cumulative, USDm)Responses per listing
15
QLIRO FINANCIAL SERVICES - DIGITAL CONSUMER FINANCE WITH
AN E-COMMERCE DNA IN THE NORDICS
VISION Become the Nordic champion of payments and digital consumer finance
INVESTMENT RATIONALE
• Gain greater control over the e-commerce value chain and extend Qliro Group’s customer relationships
• Leverage a SEK 5bn e-commerce platform with more than four million active customers to create a significant long-term earnings opportunity in owning its own payment solutions provider
• Extend offering to non-Qliro Group companies to build long-term Financial Services play
DEVELOPMENT OF GROWTH METRIC
AND INVESTMENT
HISTORY
PARTNERSHIP WITH KINNEVIK
183
277338
528476
569607
Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016
Loans to the publicQ1 2011 48
Q3 2011 101
Q2 2013 230
Q4 2014 470
• Developed and built QFS under Kinnevik’s stewardship
• Provided a 100 percent subscription undertaking and guarantee in connection with SEK 650m 2014 rights issue in order to finance Qliro FS with up to SEK 300m
Selected merchants
Kinnevik investments(Qliro Group, cumulative SEKm)Loan book (SEKm)
16
BETTERMENT – TRANSFORMING WEALTH MANAGEMENT IN THE US
VISIONBetterments vision is to become their customer’s central financial relationship. They aim to democratise financial advice, making it more accessible, transparent and affordable for everyone
INVESTMENT RATIONALE
• Opportunity to build a significant consumer brand for the long-term in a very large market
• The leading pure play digital asset manager with the highest AuM, most customers and best user ratings
• Fully integrated model (brokerage, record keeping and custody in-house), providing cost advantage and enabling differentiated features
• Attractive long term customer economics based on low CAC relative to expected LTV and inverse churn
• Young, dynamic team supported by high quality, committed co-investors and independent board members
DEVELOPMENT OF GROWTH METRIC
AND INVESTMENT
HISTORY
PARTNERSHIP WITH KINNEVIK
• Deep dive analysis into market and positioning as part of the investment process
• Knowledge sharing on scaling digital consumer brands
• Support to on branding and customer segmentation
• Participation in audit and investment committees and leadership of GRC framework
Kinnevik invested USD 65m in March 2016
0.9 1.11.7
2.3 2.63.3
4.0
4.9
6.0
43 53
67 86
106 124
152 172
197
Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
AuM (USDbn)
Customers ('000)
Partner investors
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan '15 May'15 Sep '15 Jan '16 May '16 Sep '16
17
BABYLON - PIONEERING PERSONAL DIGITAL HEALTHCARE GLOBALLY
VISION
INVESTMENT RATIONALE
DEVELOPMENT OF GROWTH METRIC
AND INVESTMENT
HISTORY
PARTNERSHIP WITH KINNEVIK
Put an accessible and affordable health service into the hands of every person on earth
• $8 trillion global sector in urgent need for scalable solutions providing high quality care
• Large initial UK market opportunity with clear consume demand based on usage and user satisfaction ratings
• Strong, experienced team led by visionary founder with healthcare background
• Ground-breaking technology innovation using artificial intelligence to triage and diagnose patients
• Ability to scale end-to-end healthcare at much lower cost than traditional channels
• Ground-breaking technology innovation using artificial intelligence to triage and diagnose patients
Founders of
Founders of
Kinnevik invested GBP 10m in January 2016
• Knowledge sharing on scaling digital consumer brands in both developed and developing markets
• Assistance with international rollout strategy
• Support in fund-raising
• Supported assessment of GRC status and set up of processes
Partner investorsNumber of registrations (‘000)
SECTION III
OUR WAY FORWARD
19Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Statista, Emergo
WE ARE ONLY GETTING STARTED IN THESE RAPIDLY EVOLVING SECTORS
Overall US Assets under Management
USD 34tn
Total US AuMUSD 34tn
Total non-retirement AuMUSD 22tn
Digital advisor market in a decadeUSD 5tn
FINANCIAL SERVICES
Digital advisor market in 2016USD 300bn
Global Healthcare Spend
USD 8tn
Global healthcare spendUSD 8tn
Estimated mobile health spend in 2020USD 60bn
HEALTHCARE
Estimated mobile health spend in 2016USD 15bn
20
OUR SWEET SPOT IS GROWTH INVESTING AT WHICH STAGE FUTURE WINNERSEMERGE BUT WE DO LOOK AT BREAK-OUT OPPORTUNITIES AT AN EARLIER STAGE
VENTURE GROWTHSEED LATE STAGE GROWTH
Breakeven point
Seed Series A
Series C
Series D
Series B
Series +
MATURITY PROFILE
Concept High Potential Emerging Winners Market Leaders
Cash flow breakeven
21
0%
500%
1000%
1500%
2000%
Chart Title
Series 1 Series 2
55 20 40
162
328
729
238 152 162
252
(117)(19) (3)
(356) (393)
(14)
(862)
(48)
(1 000)
(800)
(600)
(400)
(200)
200
400
600
800
1 000
Investments
Divestments
Net Investments
Amazon share price
A SUCCESSFUL MODEL BASED ON PRUDENT CAPITAL REALLOCATION
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
LA
RG
ES
T
INV
ES
TM
EN
TS
LA
RG
ES
T
DIV
ES
TM
EN
TS
(EURm)
2016 YTD
Source: Kinnevik as of 2016-09-30
BUILDING THE BUSINESSES THAT PROVIDE MORE AND BETTER CHOICE