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EC-EARTH in action
Klaus WyserGrigory NikulinRossby Centre
EC-EARTH
The EC-EARTH consortiumSignees of the EC-EARTH letter of intent (January 2012)
The EC-EARTH model version 2.3 EC-EARTH is a coupled, state-of-the-art coupled global climate model based on
ECMWF’s seasonal prediction system S3 EC-EARTH is jointly developed by several European institutes and ECMWF
IFS for atmosphereincl. H-Tessel for land surface
T159/N80 / 62 levels(nominal 1.125 deg resolution)
NEMO for oceanincl. LIM2 for sea-ice
ORCA1 configuration / 42 levels(approx. 1 deg resolution)
VegetationJPL-Guess
Atmospheric chemistryTM5
OASIS-3 coupler
Not part of EC-EARTH v2 that is used for CMIP5 simulations
http://ecearth.knmi.nl/
CMIP5: Coupled Model IntercomparisonProject Phase 5 From http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5:
CMIP is a standard experimental protocol for studying the output ofcoupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs). It provides a community-based infrastructure in support of climate modeldiagnosis, validation, intercomparison, documentation and data access.
CMIP5 provides access climate model data in a common data format (ESGF portal http://esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk/esgf-web-fe/)
CMIP5 is done in support of IPCC AR5
First time that Swedem contributes to CMIP experiments
CMIP5: climate predictions
T2m over EuropeStart an ensemble of 10-yr experiments every 5 years
Initialize from re-analysis (or synthesis) ofatmosphere and ocean
Extend a few runs to 30 yrs
CMIP5: climate projections
Start an ensemble from a pre-industrial spin-up run (>500 yrs)
The 20th century control run is forced by the observedchanges in GHG, aerosol concentrations, volcanoes, and land-use changes from 1850-2005
3 RCP scenarios for the 21th century
EC-EARTH
7
Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got thereKnutti et al., GRL, 2013
Normalized distancefrom observations
EC-EARTH v3 has been releasedSMHI has led the development of the next EC-EARTH version
Upgraded components for atmosphere, ocean and coupler New sea-ice model LIM3 Increased resolution:
T255 (80 km) and 91 levels in the atmosphere, ORCA1L46 in the ocean
CMIP5 forcing as in v2 New treatment of snow on ice sheets (avoiding accumulation yet conservative) ”Calving glaciers” in Greenland and Antarctica Lakes are updated from nearest ocean point Revised runoff maps for IFS and land-sea masks for OASIS
Planned developments in the near future: Interactive vegetation Chemical transport model including aerosols River routing
EU-FP7 project EMBRACEWebsite: http://www.embrace-project.eu/
Aim: reduce climate model biases
Target research areas: Global carbon cycle Atmospheric convection and coupled tropical circulation Land Surface - Climate Interactions Coastal and equatorial ocean upwelling
Outcome: climate projections similar to CMIP5 with improved GCMs
OBS
HadGEM
MPI ESM
MIROC GFDL
CNRM
IPSL
EC-EARTH
SMHI is co-leading a WP about model diagnostics and evaluation
EU-FP7 project SPECSWebsite: http://www.specs-fp7.eu/SPECS/Home.html
SPECS aims to identify the main problems in climate prediction and investigate a battery of solutions from a seamless perspective
Better initialisation Impact of larger ensembles Impact of higher resolution
Outcome: seasonal and multi-annual hindcasts and forecasts