km middle east 2014 - presentation by lcol fm aubin on wargaming and knowledge management

© Fred Aubin & SRTCAll Rights Reserved, 2014

Knowledge in Action Moving from Theory to Practice

www.stratredteam.com1

Levering Knowledge through Wargaming and Red Teaming


Lieutenant-Colonel (Ret) Fred Aubin, CD MCGICEO Strategic Red Team Consulting

Middle East 2014




One of the best reasons to be in Dubai instead of Ottawa…




Wargaming explained in a single picture!

Photo: Roger Nilsson




As a soldier, I tend to look at knowledge from a soldier’s perspective.

• What I don’t know can kill me!

• Knowledge is all about gaining tactical, operational and strategic advantage.

• It essentially boils down to our knowledge versus the opposition’s knowledge. This is as true in benign business environments as it is in the hostile conditions of battle.

• He who uses his knowledge most effectively is victorious.





• Knowledge is all about enabling decision making. Knowledge that doesn’t enable decision making is extraneous.

• Knowledge without leadership is redundant.

• Leadership without knowledge is disastrous.

• Genuine and effective leadership is wholly dependent upon knowledge-based decision making.





• There’s no such thing as an “Army of One”. Individual knowledge is only effective if it can be translated into relevant collective knowledge.





• Learned knowledge is “hindsight based”. Effective leadership uses knowledge to turn hindsight into foresight.




Gaming has always been an important component of practical military KM.

Knowledge-based decision making

Relevant Knowledge

Weighing knowledge-based options

Knowledge-based risk reduction

Turning historic knowledge & hindsight into knowledge based

foresight

Turning individual knowledge into collective knowledge

GAMING

Gamification

Wargaming

Red Teaming

Game Theory




Military & Civil knowledge-based decision making share the same challenges…..

Strategic Competitive Targeting?

Strategic Competitive Intelligence? Strategic Mission

Analysis?

Strategic Plan Development & Campaign Design?

Contingencies, Branch Plans & Sequels?

Strategic Centres of Gravity?

Strategic Execution, Management & Refinement




If you are in an adversarial and competitive environment, how do you evaluate the various courses of action open to you?

How do you know whether the knowledge that informs your strategy is truly comprehensive, integrated, adaptive and networked?

The Shared Knowledge Management & Execution Challenge…




How do you test the validity of your knowledge base and plans prior to execution?

How do you test your decision support structures?

How do you put your plan under realistic stress before execution?





What knowledge are you using to establish, align and integrate your strategic authorities, responsibilities and accountabilities?

Are they aligned with the actual decisions that need to be made?

Who plays the role of your adversaries, your competition, or your enemies?

Who is your BAD GUY?





How is the feedback presented to your political, governmental, or executive level leadership prior to execution?

What separates a great plan from a self-fulfilling prophecy,

or…..

a self-licking ice-cream cone?





How are your requirements for disciplined Knowledge-Based Decision Making and execution success different than those of the military?

Short Answer:

…..they’re not!





KNOWLEDGE MANANAGEMENT, INTELLIGENCE, STRATEGY, PLANNING, DECISION MAKING and EXECUTION, are HUMAN ACTIVITIES and the truest test of those things can only be accomplished with human beings in the loop.

Tracing a Gantt Chart or doing the AGILE, LEAN, Six Sigma street dance is a poor substitute.





The best way to test and rehearse knowledge-based decisions is if the players that are playing the game are the very people that will eventually have to make critical decisions in the execution of the plan.

….and do it in a way that ensures your knowledge–based SIMULATION

……. promotes decision support STIMULATION

The Shared Knowledge Management & Execution Solution…




We would test our knowledge, plan and execution through gaming.

How did we do it in the military?

In its simplest form, we wargamed every viable course of action before committing to a preferred strategy or plan.




We rehearsed by wargaming any and all commanders that had to make knowledge based decisions in the execution, or synchronization of that plan.





We wargamed our knowledge-based decision making against the actions of a realistic adversary in a realistic operational environment.





We wargamed in a cooperative leadership and learning environment that believed that sweat and tears in a wargame were preferable to blood and tears on the battlefield.





So, what’s the equivalent of blood, sweat and tears on your battlefield?




Wargames are real-time, action-reaction, role-playing workshops that pit your key real-life knowledge & decision makers (Blue Team) …

….against the real-time knowledge and actions of competitive adversaries (Red Team)….

…and disciplined by an executive level White team.

What is Wargaming?




Wargaming is a disciplined role playing activity where key actors react to critical events using an action / reaction / counteraction method of friendly and competitor interaction.

Each step in the execution of the plan or strategy is examined in the following detail:

• Action• Reaction• Counteraction• Observations• Record• Review• Learning

Its knowledge-based action / reaction / counteraction




Wargaming is a methodological discipline to test your knowledge and plans that is also designed to promote:

• knowledge-based decision making

• risk mitigation,

• innovation,

• mechanisms of discovery for leadership,

• mechanisms of voice for your teams

• real-time organizational learning for all.

It’s a game in name only.




Wargaming is a conscious attempt to lever extant knowledge to visualize the flow of business operations, given joint strengths, weaknesses, dispositions, capabilities and possible courses of actions available to business actors in a given business sector and environment.

……and it’s the best way of getting into your competitor’s head, their knowledge base, their decision cycle, their OODA loop.

It’s a game in name only.




Your corporate leadership, knowledge base, strategy, plan and business environment are the foundations to preparing, designing and executing your Wargame.

Vision

MissionAnalysis

Constraints

Restraints

Assumptions

If there’s a problem with any of these, the wargame will show it.

Wargame preparation is a LEADERSHIP activity!




Every event is tested against a knowledge-based competitive reality.

Wargame conduct is a LEADERSHIP activity!

Action

Reaction

Counteraction

Observations

Record

Review

Learning

Action

Reaction

Counteraction

Observations

Record

Review

Learning

Action

Reaction

Counteraction

Observations

Record

Review

Learning

Action

Reaction

Counteraction

Observations

Record

Review

LearningFAILURE?

FIX

RETURNREPEAT

KNOWLEDGE?

ACTION?




After Action Reviews (AARs) are a LEADERSHIP responsibility and are conducted by your corporate leadership, facilitated by the White Team Lead and supported by the Blue and Red Leads.

• TURNING INDIVIDUAL KNOWLEDGE INTO COLLECTIVE KNOWLEDGE!

Wargame lessons are a LEADERSHIP activity!




Common Thread?

• Wargame Knowledge Base & Preparations are a LEADERSHIP responsibility!

• Wargaming of the knowledge base is a LEADERSHIP responsibility!

• Learning from the wargame is a LEADERSHIP responsibility!

www.stratredteam.com




The only restriction is LEADERSHIP’s imagination!

• Scale?

• Scope?

• Focus?

• Method?

Wargaming is a HUMAN activity – the SIMULATION must provide STIMULATION




What type of Wargame suits you best?

There are 3 fundamental types of Wargames to support knowledge-based decision making:

• The Red Team Exercise

• The Course of Action (COA) Wargame

• The Rehearsal Wargame




Course of Action Wargaming• These are a series of two of more

sequential and comparable wargames involving the same knowledge base, conditions, actors and weighting criteria to determine the most viable options available in terms of risk, execution, pay off, etc.

• This is a decision support tool for senior executives to recommend a distinct plan of action to corporate leadership.

• Red & Blue players are normally drawn from the extant pool of executives normally involved in your company’s strategic and operational planning process.




Aubin’s Axiom 26: Understanding your adversary’s available courses of action is fundamental to determining your own viable courses of action.

Photo: Roger Nilsson




• A Rehearsal Wargame is a comprehensive exercise to test the requirements of knowledge-based decision making of accepted plan prior to its execution.

• The BLUE TEAM involves all senior executives who must make decisions and manage activities in the execution of that plan and confined to their accepted decision support roles.

• Reducing risk by turning hindsight into foresight … turning individual knowledge into collective knowledge.

Rehearsal Wargaming




Aubin’s Axiom 243: Hindsight is a useful practice ...

…. but foresight is a far more practical one.




• A Red Team Exercise is similar to a rehearsal Wargame with the exception that none of the Red Team players are drawn from company’s decision support stakeholders.

• Each RED TEAM player is an outside subject matter expert that is not a company stakeholder and is only given a reasonable amount of information that a normal competitor would have.

• The RED TEAM’s role is not merely to test the plan and knowledge base as adversarial players but rather to put it under extreme competitive stress.

RED TEAMING




Aubin’s Axiom 198: In business, as in battle, the deadliest prejudice is thinking that your adversaries are dummies.




Wargaming – its not just for guys in uniform!

Companies that wargame experience 40% to 55% increase in successful execution




Course of Action Wargaming, Rehearsal Wargaming & Red Teaming have long histories in major event design and execution.




…. and I can think of one really big local wargaming / rehearsal opportunity in the near future!




In summary – wargaming is all about:

• Evaluating courses of action to recommend a distinct plan of action to corporate leadership;

• Levering rehearsals as a comprehensive exercise under conditions of extreme competitive stress to test critical knowledge and plans prior to execution;

• Reinforcing knowledge-based Unity of Thought, Purpose and Action throughout your corporate team through action / reaction / counter-reaction role playing;

• Visualizing of the flow of knowledge, business operations, given joint strengths, weaknesses, dispositions, capabilities and possible courses of actions available to business actors in a given business sector and environment.WARGAME HINDSIGHT becomes BUSINESS FORESIGHT




Food for thought?

Dancers rehearse

Actors rehearse

Militaries rehearse

Shouldn’t You?

km middle east 2014 - presentation by lcol fm aubin on wargaming and knowledge management

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