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TRANSCRIPT
Kopernik Global All-Cap1Q 2015 Conference Call
Presented by:
David B. Iben, CFA
CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager
.
IndexKopernik Overview
• Centering on Client Success
• Investing with a Distinctive Philosophy
• Uncovering Value with Industry Specialists
Market Overview
• Markets in Review
• Return-Free Risk?
• Bifurcated Performance
• Unsustainable Margins
• The Dollar Has Soared
• Taking Advantage of Investors’ A.D.D.
• Uranium
• Coal
• Hydropower
• What Would Newton Think?
• Is the Secular Decline Over?
• Gold & Gold Industry
• Advanced Economies vs Emerging Economies
• Stock Market Capitalization
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Centering on Client SuccessKopernik Global Investors, LLC (“Kopernik”) is a global equity investment management specialist, organized to ensure a culture centered on client success
• Leadership and ownership by investment professionals
• 100% employee owned
• Equity participation for all professionals
• Principals invest alongside clients
• Capacity to be limited, enhancing return potential
• Founded by David Iben – July 2013
3Assets as of 3/31 are preliminary.
Mutual Funds46%
Private Funds8%
UCITS10%
Separate Accounts36%
Mutual Funds $681.94 MM
Private Funds 126.49 MM
UCITS 152.28 MM
Separate Accounts 531.25 MM
Total Firm AUM $1,491.96 MM
Total Firm AUM by Type (As of 3/31/2015)
Investing with a Distinctive Philosophy
The likely outcome of a distinctive philosophy consistently implemented by skilled investors –sustainable investment success and low correlations to other managers
• We view ourselves as owners of businesses:
- Market inefficiencies present numerous opportunities to identify quality businesses that we believe are mispriced
- Independent research of a company’s business, industry supply/demand, competitive positioning and management uncovers
opportunities
• We predicate our intensive, original research on:
- A global perspective to enhance understanding of markets and companies
- A long-term investment horizon to allow for inherent value to be realized
- Value as a prerequisite, not a philosophy
- Bottom-up, fundamental analysis to gain a thorough understanding of a company’s business and valuation
- Industry-tailored valuation metrics to assess distinct industry characteristics and success drivers
4
Uncovering Value with Industry Specialists
• Far-reaching investment experience in global markets with a long record of success
• Searching for market anomalies with industry specialists who have diverse backgrounds and distinct perspectives
• Group vetting to challenge ideas and develop high conviction
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Markets in Review
Global equity markets have become increasingly bifurcated over the past six years. This trend wasmagnified by the S&P’s stellar performance in 2013 and 2014. Emerging markets and Europe on theother hand have lagged behind. The U.S. equity bull market, that started in March 2009, has beenpropelled by unprecedented quantitative easing. While there are notable differences, today’s current U.S.equity market reminds of the tech bubble experienced in early 2000 with valuations that are, in ouropinion, unsustainable. As a result of the “economic recovery” observed in the U.S., policy makers world-wide now view quantitative easing as the cure-all for their economies as well. While government debtlevels in most countries around the globe continue to grow, global bond yields remain at extremely lowlevels and nominal yields have even turned negative in as many countries such as Germany, Denmarkand Switzerland. Over $5 trillion of sovereign debt is trading at negative nominal interest rates. We mustpay them for the privilege of loaning money to them. We fear that this experiment in monetary policy isbound to end badly.
While investing in these bifurcated markets is particularly challenging, we have taken advantage of themany opportunities to buy dominant companies at very attractive valuations. Although we have clearlybeen early, we believe we have never had a more attractively valued portfolio. Diversification acrossindustries, countries, regions and currencies is more important than ever.
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Return-Free Risk?Historical 30 Year Bond Yield
8
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
30 year bond current yield = 2.6% $1,051
Yields go to Price of Bond Gain/Loss
2% $1,224 16.46%
4% $827 -21.31%
8% $435 -58.61%
12% $273 -74.02%
16% $196 -81.35%
Source: Bloomberg
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U.S. Stock Market as % of GDP
Bifurcated PerformancePerformance of Equity Markets
10
Source: Bloomberg
$850
$900
$950
$1,000
$1,050
$1,100
Jul-1
4
Jul-1
4
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Aug
-14
Sep
-14
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Dec
-14
July 1, 2014 - December 31, 2014
MSCI Emerging Markets Index MSCI AC World Index MSCI EAFE Index S&P 500
Unsustainable MarginsU.S. Corporate Profits as a % of GDP
11
7/1/2014, 11%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
Source: Economic Research Division, Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis
The Dollar Has Soared
12
$85.20
$99.48
$84
$86
$88
$90
$92
$94
$96
$98
$100
$102
September-14 October-14 November-14 December-14 January-15 February-15 March-15
U.S. Dollar vs Major CurrencySeptember 2014 - April 2015
Source: Bloomberg
13
NON SEQUITUR © 2014 Wiley Ink, Inc.. Dist. By UNIVERSAL UCLICK. Reprinted with permission. All rights reserved.
14
Taking Advantage of Investors’ A.D.D.
Uranium Getting Cheaper On “Wall Street” Even As It Gets More Expensive On “Main Street”
15
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
8/28/2014 9/28/2014 10/28/2014 11/28/2014 12/28/2014 1/28/2015 2/28/2015 3/31/2015
Uranium8/28/2014 – 3/23/2015
Uranium Spot Price | UXA1 Cameco Corp | CCJ US Uranium Participation Corp | U CN
UXA1 | +18.94%
U CN | -7.24%
CCJ US | -23.26%
Source: Bloomberg
Uranium
16
75,000
95,000
115,000
135,000
155,000
175,000
195,000
215,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Ura
nium
dem
and
(klb
U3O
8)
Uranium Supply & Demand2003-2020E
Total Demand (Power Utility) Total Supply (Mine Production)
Region/Country Operable 2014 New Shut Operable ChangeUnder Construction
2014
Americas 126 8 (8) 126 0 6
Europe 136 10 (16) 130 (6) 4
Asia 77 14 (14) 77 0 9
Other* 6 16 - 22 16 5
India 21 15 - 36 15 6
China 21 57 - 78 57 27
Russia & E. Europe** 49 21 (13) 57 8 12
Total 436 142 -51 526 90 69
New Reactors Under Construction90 net new reactors by 2023 Source: Cameco, Q2 2014
*Other: Bangladesh, Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, United Arab Emirates
**E. Europe: Armenia, Belarus, Ukraine
Source: Bloomberg
Uranium
17
Source: UX Consulting Company
18
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Wor
ld E
lect
ricity
Pro
duct
ion
(TW
h)
World Electricity ProductionBy Fuel Source
Coal Gas Hydro Nuclear Oil Other
Source: World Bank
Coal
19
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15
Peabody Energy Exploration & Production Oil Services Global Energy Index Source: Bloomberg
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15
Energy Stocks vs. Energy Prices
WTI Nat Gas PRB Coal CAPP Coal
WTI – West Texas Intermediate | PRB Coal – Powder River Basin | CAPP Coal – Central Appalachian Coal
Hydropower
20
Source: Bloomberg
0.28
0.37 0.33
0.41
0.52
0.43 0.47
0.22 0.23
0.15
1.22
1.51
1.31
1.06 1.09
1.19
1.27
1.49
1.80
1.65
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
IDA vs Eletrobras | P/B
P/B Eletrobras P/B IDA
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Market Capitalization $432 billion $670 billion $724 billion
Price-to-Sales 0.76x 1.00x 3.80x
Price-to-Book 0.50x 1.26x 6.00x
Size of Workforce 77,000,000 107,300,000 83,000
Resources
Land 6.6 million sq. miles (4.2 billion acres)1 3.3 million sq. miles (2.1 billion acres)1 2.9 sq. miles(1,866 acres)6
Freshwater 25% of the world2 12% of the world3 -
Crude Oil 80,000 (m b) 13,219 (m b) -
Natural Gas 48,676 (billion standard cu m) 459 (billion standard cu m) -
Electricity Generation 1,060.7 TWH4,5 557.4 TWH4 -
Gold Holdings 38.8 million ounces (1,208 tons) 2.2 million ounces (67 tons) 27.1 million ounces (842 tons)7
Gold In-situ 160.8 million ounces (5,000 tons) 77.2 million ounces (2,400 tons) -
Rapidly Obsolescing Products No No Yes
1 Russia and Brazil are the 1st and 5th largest countries by land size in the world, respectively.2 The largest of Russia’s bodies of fresh water, Lake Baikal, is the oldest, deepest and purest fresh water lake in the world. Baikal alone contains over one-fifth of the world's fresh surface water.
Of the country's 100,000 rivers, the Volga at 2,294 miles is the longest river in Europe.3 Brazil has a dense and complex system of rivers, one of the world's most extensive. The Amazon Basin is the most extensive river system in the world. It has a total area of 7,008,370 km2. The
Amazon river basin alone, which covers 48% of the country’s territory, accounts for 75% of Brazil’s freshwater resources. 4 Russia and Brazil are the 4th and 8th largest electricity producers in the world, respectively.5 Brazil is the second-largest producer of hydroelectric power in the world, trailing only China, and the country depends on hydroelectricity for more than 75% of its electric power supply. Much of
Brazil's hydroelectric potential lies in the country's Amazon Basin.6 Over a period of nine months ending in January 2015, Russia has been purchasing gold and has now overtaken China as the fifth largest country in total gold reserves. In November 2012,
Brazil doubled its gold holdings.6 Apple Inc., Form 8-K for qtr. ended Dec. 27, 2014. Approximately 15% is leased property, 85% is owned.7 Cash and Short Term Investments of $32.46 billion as of December 27, 2014 converted to ounces of gold ($1,199/ounce as of April 2015).
Sources: World Gold Council, USGS,
Britannica, OPEC, Bloomberg, CIA.gov,
EIA.gov, BP, Reuters
Russia P/B, P/S – RTS Index
Brazil P/B, P/S – Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo
Stock Exchange Index
Apple - AAPL
What Would
Newton Think?
Gold statistics are displayed in Metric Tons
and Troy Ounces.
Data as of March 31, 2015 - Unless
otherwise noted
Is The Secular Decline Over?
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$151.47
$99.54
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
$160
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
USDX IndexDecember 1984 - April 2015
DXY Curncy (DOLLAR INDEX SPOT)
Source: Bloomberg
Gold
Gold Dollar
Production Input No No
Generates Income No No
Edible No No
Medium of Transaction Fair Excellent
Store of Value Excellent Poor
Intrinsically Valuable * *
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Source: Kopernik Analyst
Gold
24
-
0.0005
0.0010
0.0015
0.0020
0.0025
0.0030
Gold Price / U.S. Monetary BaseSource: Bloomberg
25
26
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
Aggregate Market Cap of Gold Miners Liquidation Value Optionality Value Theoretical Value
($bn
)
Gold Miners Market Cap vs Upside Potential
Gold Industry
Gold Miners Market Cap vs Upside Potential
Liquidation Value: $200/ounce for ounces in the ground and an 85% recovery rate.
Optionality Value: $260/ounce (the price of a 5yr call option with a strike price of $1300); same ounces and recovery rate
Theoretical Value: $900/ounce; same ounces and recovery rate.
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Gold Chevron Pfizer Facebook JNJ Microsoft Apple
($bn
)
Gold Industry | Comparison of Market Caps
Source: Bloomberg
Advanced Economies vs Emerging Economies
27
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Cur
rent
Int
erna
tiona
l Dol
lar
in $
B
Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP)
Advanced economies Emerging market and developing economies
Source: IMF
Source: Bloomberg
As of: April 2015
Ticker Name P/B P/E
Curr
EV/T12M
Sales
EV/T12M
EBITFCF Yld
Dvd 12M
Yld - Gross
SPX S&P 500 INDEX 2.885 18.484 2.187 16.274 5.040 1.977
MXEA MSCI EAFE 1.722 17.752 1.472 15.316 3.834 2.884
HSI HANG SENG INDEX 1.520 11.601 2.188 11.145 7.843 3.271
MERVAL ARGENTINA MERVAL INDEX 1.282 10.783 1.958 15.779 -6.789 0.499
IBOV BRAZIL IBOVESPA INDEX 1.329 14.813 1.528 11.580 20.569 4.026
KOSPI KOSPI INDEX 1.202 53.740 1.261 26.188 1.549 1.235
RTSSTD RTS Standard Index 0.364 4.192 0.917 6.303 33.091 0.088
Stock Market Capitalization Relative to GDP
28
% of
World GDP
2013
% of
MSCI ACWI
Jan 2015
United States 22% 52%
China 12% 2%
Japan 7% 7%
Germany 5% 3%
France 4% 3%
United Kingdom 4% 7%
Brazil 3% 1%
Italy 3% 1%
Russia 3% 0%
India 2% 1%
Other 36% 23%
Source: World Bank, Bloomberg
THANK YOU
Q&A Session
29
A copy of this presentation will be made available on Kopernik’s website shortly after the call.
The information presented herein is proprietary to Kopernik Global Investors, LLC. This material is approved for a presentation to authorized individuals only and,
accordingly, this material is not to be reproduced in whole or in part or used for any purpose except as authorized by Kopernik Global Investors, LLC.
Please consider all risks carefully before investing. The accounts managed according to the Global All-Cap investment strategy are subject to certain risks such as
market, investment style, interest rate, deflation, and illiquidity risk. Investments in small and mid-capitalization companies also involve greater risk and portfolio
price volatility than investments in larger capitalization stocks. Investing in non-U.S. markets, including emerging and frontier markets, involves certain additional
risks, including potential currency fluctuations and controls, restrictions on foreign investments, less governmental supervision and regulation, less liquidity, less
disclosure, and the potential for market volatility, expropriation, confiscatory taxation, and social, economic and political instability. Investments in energy and
natural resources companies are especially affected by developments in the commodities markets, the supply of and demand for specific resources, raw materials,
products and services, the price of oil and gas, exploration and production spending, government regulation, economic conditions, international political
developments, energy conservation efforts and the success of exploration projects. There can be no assurances that investment objectives will be achieved.
Kopernik Global Investors, LLC is an investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended.
This document, as of March 31, 2015 is descriptive of how the Kopernik team manages the Global All-Cap strategy. There is no guarantee that any strategy’s
investment performance objectives will be achieved. This profile is not legally binding on Kopernik Global Investors, LLC or its affiliates.
© 2015 Kopernik Global Investors, LLC | Two Harbour Place | 302 Knights Run Avenue Suite 1225 | Tampa, Florida 33602 | 813.314.6100 | www.kopernikglobal.com
Important Information
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