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Kopernik Global All-Cap 1Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager .

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Page 1: Kopernik Global All-Capkopernikglobal.com/sites/default/files/Kopernik 1Q 2015... ·  · 2015-04-16Kopernik Global All-Cap 1Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: ... industry supply/demand,

Kopernik Global All-Cap1Q 2015 Conference Call

Presented by:

David B. Iben, CFA

CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager

.

Page 2: Kopernik Global All-Capkopernikglobal.com/sites/default/files/Kopernik 1Q 2015... ·  · 2015-04-16Kopernik Global All-Cap 1Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: ... industry supply/demand,

IndexKopernik Overview

• Centering on Client Success

• Investing with a Distinctive Philosophy

• Uncovering Value with Industry Specialists

Market Overview

• Markets in Review

• Return-Free Risk?

• Bifurcated Performance

• Unsustainable Margins

• The Dollar Has Soared

• Taking Advantage of Investors’ A.D.D.

• Uranium

• Coal

• Hydropower

• What Would Newton Think?

• Is the Secular Decline Over?

• Gold & Gold Industry

• Advanced Economies vs Emerging Economies

• Stock Market Capitalization

2

Page 3: Kopernik Global All-Capkopernikglobal.com/sites/default/files/Kopernik 1Q 2015... ·  · 2015-04-16Kopernik Global All-Cap 1Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: ... industry supply/demand,

Centering on Client SuccessKopernik Global Investors, LLC (“Kopernik”) is a global equity investment management specialist, organized to ensure a culture centered on client success

• Leadership and ownership by investment professionals

• 100% employee owned

• Equity participation for all professionals

• Principals invest alongside clients

• Capacity to be limited, enhancing return potential

• Founded by David Iben – July 2013

3Assets as of 3/31 are preliminary.

Mutual Funds46%

Private Funds8%

UCITS10%

Separate Accounts36%

Mutual Funds $681.94 MM

Private Funds 126.49 MM

UCITS 152.28 MM

Separate Accounts 531.25 MM

Total Firm AUM $1,491.96 MM

Total Firm AUM by Type (As of 3/31/2015)

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Investing with a Distinctive Philosophy

The likely outcome of a distinctive philosophy consistently implemented by skilled investors –sustainable investment success and low correlations to other managers

• We view ourselves as owners of businesses:

- Market inefficiencies present numerous opportunities to identify quality businesses that we believe are mispriced

- Independent research of a company’s business, industry supply/demand, competitive positioning and management uncovers

opportunities

• We predicate our intensive, original research on:

- A global perspective to enhance understanding of markets and companies

- A long-term investment horizon to allow for inherent value to be realized

- Value as a prerequisite, not a philosophy

- Bottom-up, fundamental analysis to gain a thorough understanding of a company’s business and valuation

- Industry-tailored valuation metrics to assess distinct industry characteristics and success drivers

4

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Uncovering Value with Industry Specialists

• Far-reaching investment experience in global markets with a long record of success

• Searching for market anomalies with industry specialists who have diverse backgrounds and distinct perspectives

• Group vetting to challenge ideas and develop high conviction

5

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6

NON SEQUITUR © 2014 Wiley Ink, Inc.. Dist. By UNIVERSAL UCLICK. Reprinted with permission. All rights reserved.

Markets in Review

Page 7: Kopernik Global All-Capkopernikglobal.com/sites/default/files/Kopernik 1Q 2015... ·  · 2015-04-16Kopernik Global All-Cap 1Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: ... industry supply/demand,

Global equity markets have become increasingly bifurcated over the past six years. This trend wasmagnified by the S&P’s stellar performance in 2013 and 2014. Emerging markets and Europe on theother hand have lagged behind. The U.S. equity bull market, that started in March 2009, has beenpropelled by unprecedented quantitative easing. While there are notable differences, today’s current U.S.equity market reminds of the tech bubble experienced in early 2000 with valuations that are, in ouropinion, unsustainable. As a result of the “economic recovery” observed in the U.S., policy makers world-wide now view quantitative easing as the cure-all for their economies as well. While government debtlevels in most countries around the globe continue to grow, global bond yields remain at extremely lowlevels and nominal yields have even turned negative in as many countries such as Germany, Denmarkand Switzerland. Over $5 trillion of sovereign debt is trading at negative nominal interest rates. We mustpay them for the privilege of loaning money to them. We fear that this experiment in monetary policy isbound to end badly.

While investing in these bifurcated markets is particularly challenging, we have taken advantage of themany opportunities to buy dominant companies at very attractive valuations. Although we have clearlybeen early, we believe we have never had a more attractively valued portfolio. Diversification acrossindustries, countries, regions and currencies is more important than ever.

7

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Return-Free Risk?Historical 30 Year Bond Yield

8

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

30 year bond current yield = 2.6% $1,051

Yields go to Price of Bond Gain/Loss

2% $1,224 16.46%

4% $827 -21.31%

8% $435 -58.61%

12% $273 -74.02%

16% $196 -81.35%

Source: Bloomberg

Page 9: Kopernik Global All-Capkopernikglobal.com/sites/default/files/Kopernik 1Q 2015... ·  · 2015-04-16Kopernik Global All-Cap 1Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: ... industry supply/demand,

9NON SEQUITUR © 2014 Wiley Ink, Inc.. Dist. By UNIVERSAL UCLICK. Reprinted with permission. All rights reserved.

U.S. Stock Market as % of GDP

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Bifurcated PerformancePerformance of Equity Markets

10

Source: Bloomberg

$850

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

4

Aug

-14

Aug

-14

Sep

-14

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Dec

-14

July 1, 2014 - December 31, 2014

MSCI Emerging Markets Index MSCI AC World Index MSCI EAFE Index S&P 500

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Unsustainable MarginsU.S. Corporate Profits as a % of GDP

11

7/1/2014, 11%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

Source: Economic Research Division, Federal Reserve

Bank of St. Louis

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The Dollar Has Soared

12

$85.20

$99.48

$84

$86

$88

$90

$92

$94

$96

$98

$100

$102

September-14 October-14 November-14 December-14 January-15 February-15 March-15

U.S. Dollar vs Major CurrencySeptember 2014 - April 2015

Source: Bloomberg

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13

NON SEQUITUR © 2014 Wiley Ink, Inc.. Dist. By UNIVERSAL UCLICK. Reprinted with permission. All rights reserved.

Page 14: Kopernik Global All-Capkopernikglobal.com/sites/default/files/Kopernik 1Q 2015... ·  · 2015-04-16Kopernik Global All-Cap 1Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: ... industry supply/demand,

14

Taking Advantage of Investors’ A.D.D.

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Uranium Getting Cheaper On “Wall Street” Even As It Gets More Expensive On “Main Street”

15

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

$130

$140

8/28/2014 9/28/2014 10/28/2014 11/28/2014 12/28/2014 1/28/2015 2/28/2015 3/31/2015

Uranium8/28/2014 – 3/23/2015

Uranium Spot Price | UXA1 Cameco Corp | CCJ US Uranium Participation Corp | U CN

UXA1 | +18.94%

U CN | -7.24%

CCJ US | -23.26%

Source: Bloomberg

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Uranium

16

75,000

95,000

115,000

135,000

155,000

175,000

195,000

215,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Ura

nium

dem

and

(klb

U3O

8)

Uranium Supply & Demand2003-2020E

Total Demand (Power Utility) Total Supply (Mine Production)

Region/Country Operable 2014 New Shut Operable ChangeUnder Construction

2014

Americas 126 8 (8) 126 0 6

Europe 136 10 (16) 130 (6) 4

Asia 77 14 (14) 77 0 9

Other* 6 16 - 22 16 5

India 21 15 - 36 15 6

China 21 57 - 78 57 27

Russia & E. Europe** 49 21 (13) 57 8 12

Total 436 142 -51 526 90 69

New Reactors Under Construction90 net new reactors by 2023 Source: Cameco, Q2 2014

*Other: Bangladesh, Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, United Arab Emirates

**E. Europe: Armenia, Belarus, Ukraine

Source: Bloomberg

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Uranium

17

Source: UX Consulting Company

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18

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Wor

ld E

lect

ricity

Pro

duct

ion

(TW

h)

World Electricity ProductionBy Fuel Source

Coal Gas Hydro Nuclear Oil Other

Source: World Bank

Coal

Page 19: Kopernik Global All-Capkopernikglobal.com/sites/default/files/Kopernik 1Q 2015... ·  · 2015-04-16Kopernik Global All-Cap 1Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: ... industry supply/demand,

19

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15

Peabody Energy Exploration & Production Oil Services Global Energy Index Source: Bloomberg

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15

Energy Stocks vs. Energy Prices

WTI Nat Gas PRB Coal CAPP Coal

WTI – West Texas Intermediate | PRB Coal – Powder River Basin | CAPP Coal – Central Appalachian Coal

Page 20: Kopernik Global All-Capkopernikglobal.com/sites/default/files/Kopernik 1Q 2015... ·  · 2015-04-16Kopernik Global All-Cap 1Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: ... industry supply/demand,

Hydropower

20

Source: Bloomberg

0.28

0.37 0.33

0.41

0.52

0.43 0.47

0.22 0.23

0.15

1.22

1.51

1.31

1.06 1.09

1.19

1.27

1.49

1.80

1.65

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

IDA vs Eletrobras | P/B

P/B Eletrobras P/B IDA

Page 21: Kopernik Global All-Capkopernikglobal.com/sites/default/files/Kopernik 1Q 2015... ·  · 2015-04-16Kopernik Global All-Cap 1Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: ... industry supply/demand,

21

Market Capitalization $432 billion $670 billion $724 billion

Price-to-Sales 0.76x 1.00x 3.80x

Price-to-Book 0.50x 1.26x 6.00x

Size of Workforce 77,000,000 107,300,000 83,000

Resources

Land 6.6 million sq. miles (4.2 billion acres)1 3.3 million sq. miles (2.1 billion acres)1 2.9 sq. miles(1,866 acres)6

Freshwater 25% of the world2 12% of the world3 -

Crude Oil 80,000 (m b) 13,219 (m b) -

Natural Gas 48,676 (billion standard cu m) 459 (billion standard cu m) -

Electricity Generation 1,060.7 TWH4,5 557.4 TWH4 -

Gold Holdings 38.8 million ounces (1,208 tons) 2.2 million ounces (67 tons) 27.1 million ounces (842 tons)7

Gold In-situ 160.8 million ounces (5,000 tons) 77.2 million ounces (2,400 tons) -

Rapidly Obsolescing Products No No Yes

1 Russia and Brazil are the 1st and 5th largest countries by land size in the world, respectively.2 The largest of Russia’s bodies of fresh water, Lake Baikal, is the oldest, deepest and purest fresh water lake in the world. Baikal alone contains over one-fifth of the world's fresh surface water.

Of the country's 100,000 rivers, the Volga at 2,294 miles is the longest river in Europe.3 Brazil has a dense and complex system of rivers, one of the world's most extensive. The Amazon Basin is the most extensive river system in the world. It has a total area of 7,008,370 km2. The

Amazon river basin alone, which covers 48% of the country’s territory, accounts for 75% of Brazil’s freshwater resources. 4 Russia and Brazil are the 4th and 8th largest electricity producers in the world, respectively.5 Brazil is the second-largest producer of hydroelectric power in the world, trailing only China, and the country depends on hydroelectricity for more than 75% of its electric power supply. Much of

Brazil's hydroelectric potential lies in the country's Amazon Basin.6 Over a period of nine months ending in January 2015, Russia has been purchasing gold and has now overtaken China as the fifth largest country in total gold reserves. In November 2012,

Brazil doubled its gold holdings.6 Apple Inc., Form 8-K for qtr. ended Dec. 27, 2014. Approximately 15% is leased property, 85% is owned.7 Cash and Short Term Investments of $32.46 billion as of December 27, 2014 converted to ounces of gold ($1,199/ounce as of April 2015).

Sources: World Gold Council, USGS,

Britannica, OPEC, Bloomberg, CIA.gov,

EIA.gov, BP, Reuters

Russia P/B, P/S – RTS Index

Brazil P/B, P/S – Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo

Stock Exchange Index

Apple - AAPL

What Would

Newton Think?

Gold statistics are displayed in Metric Tons

and Troy Ounces.

Data as of March 31, 2015 - Unless

otherwise noted

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Is The Secular Decline Over?

22

$151.47

$99.54

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

$130

$140

$150

$160

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

USDX IndexDecember 1984 - April 2015

DXY Curncy (DOLLAR INDEX SPOT)

Source: Bloomberg

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Gold

Gold Dollar

Production Input No No

Generates Income No No

Edible No No

Medium of Transaction Fair Excellent

Store of Value Excellent Poor

Intrinsically Valuable * *

23

Source: Kopernik Analyst

Page 24: Kopernik Global All-Capkopernikglobal.com/sites/default/files/Kopernik 1Q 2015... ·  · 2015-04-16Kopernik Global All-Cap 1Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: ... industry supply/demand,

Gold

24

-

0.0005

0.0010

0.0015

0.0020

0.0025

0.0030

Gold Price / U.S. Monetary BaseSource: Bloomberg

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25

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26

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

Aggregate Market Cap of Gold Miners Liquidation Value Optionality Value Theoretical Value

($bn

)

Gold Miners Market Cap vs Upside Potential

Gold Industry

Gold Miners Market Cap vs Upside Potential

Liquidation Value: $200/ounce for ounces in the ground and an 85% recovery rate.

Optionality Value: $260/ounce (the price of a 5yr call option with a strike price of $1300); same ounces and recovery rate

Theoretical Value: $900/ounce; same ounces and recovery rate.

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Gold Chevron Pfizer Facebook JNJ Microsoft Apple

($bn

)

Gold Industry | Comparison of Market Caps

Source: Bloomberg

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Advanced Economies vs Emerging Economies

27

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Cur

rent

Int

erna

tiona

l Dol

lar

in $

B

Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP)

Advanced economies Emerging market and developing economies

Source: IMF

Source: Bloomberg

As of: April 2015

Ticker Name P/B P/E

Curr

EV/T12M

Sales

EV/T12M

EBITFCF Yld

Dvd 12M

Yld - Gross

SPX S&P 500 INDEX 2.885 18.484 2.187 16.274 5.040 1.977

MXEA MSCI EAFE 1.722 17.752 1.472 15.316 3.834 2.884

HSI HANG SENG INDEX 1.520 11.601 2.188 11.145 7.843 3.271

MERVAL ARGENTINA MERVAL INDEX 1.282 10.783 1.958 15.779 -6.789 0.499

IBOV BRAZIL IBOVESPA INDEX 1.329 14.813 1.528 11.580 20.569 4.026

KOSPI KOSPI INDEX 1.202 53.740 1.261 26.188 1.549 1.235

RTSSTD RTS Standard Index 0.364 4.192 0.917 6.303 33.091 0.088

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Stock Market Capitalization Relative to GDP

28

% of

World GDP

2013

% of

MSCI ACWI

Jan 2015

United States 22% 52%

China 12% 2%

Japan 7% 7%

Germany 5% 3%

France 4% 3%

United Kingdom 4% 7%

Brazil 3% 1%

Italy 3% 1%

Russia 3% 0%

India 2% 1%

Other 36% 23%

Source: World Bank, Bloomberg

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THANK YOU

Q&A Session

29

A copy of this presentation will be made available on Kopernik’s website shortly after the call.

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The information presented herein is proprietary to Kopernik Global Investors, LLC. This material is approved for a presentation to authorized individuals only and,

accordingly, this material is not to be reproduced in whole or in part or used for any purpose except as authorized by Kopernik Global Investors, LLC.

Please consider all risks carefully before investing. The accounts managed according to the Global All-Cap investment strategy are subject to certain risks such as

market, investment style, interest rate, deflation, and illiquidity risk. Investments in small and mid-capitalization companies also involve greater risk and portfolio

price volatility than investments in larger capitalization stocks. Investing in non-U.S. markets, including emerging and frontier markets, involves certain additional

risks, including potential currency fluctuations and controls, restrictions on foreign investments, less governmental supervision and regulation, less liquidity, less

disclosure, and the potential for market volatility, expropriation, confiscatory taxation, and social, economic and political instability. Investments in energy and

natural resources companies are especially affected by developments in the commodities markets, the supply of and demand for specific resources, raw materials,

products and services, the price of oil and gas, exploration and production spending, government regulation, economic conditions, international political

developments, energy conservation efforts and the success of exploration projects. There can be no assurances that investment objectives will be achieved.

Kopernik Global Investors, LLC is an investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended.

This document, as of March 31, 2015 is descriptive of how the Kopernik team manages the Global All-Cap strategy. There is no guarantee that any strategy’s

investment performance objectives will be achieved. This profile is not legally binding on Kopernik Global Investors, LLC or its affiliates.

© 2015 Kopernik Global Investors, LLC | Two Harbour Place | 302 Knights Run Avenue Suite 1225 | Tampa, Florida 33602 | 813.314.6100 | www.kopernikglobal.com

Important Information

30