kristin's market update - wordpress.com · santa cruz, ca 95060 neighborhood detail least...

MARKET UPDATEKristin's

· Current Real Estate Market Conditions for Single Family Homes· Trends in Pricing· Current Levels of Supply and Demand· Value Metrics

· Report for the week ofOctober 30, 2017

· Presented by Kristin EvansWe Are Datawww.altosresearch.com415.932.8152

SANTA CRUZ, CA

Powered by Altos Research LLC | www.altosresearch.com | Copyright ©2005-2016 Altos Research LLC

Median List Price

Median Lot Size

46.9

Percent Relisted (reset DOM)

1960

2.2

2 %

Median Number of Bathrooms

79

Inventory of Properties Listed

$ 614

Percent Flip (price increased)

6,501 - 8,000 sqft

Median House Size (sq ft)

$ 1,199,000

32 %

3.0

Market Action Index

Median Number of Bedrooms

Asking Price Per Square Foot

64 %

Percent of Properties with Price Decrease

Strong Seller's

≠

≠≠

±+

==

±+

Altos Research Value Statistics

Most Expensive Listing

Average Days on Market (DoM)

Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First

This Week Real-Time Market Profile Trend

The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuringthe current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30implies a seller's advantage. Below 30, conditions give the advantage to thebuyer.

Supply and Demand

Characteristics per Quartile

29 33252

792.0 52

3.0

4

60

3.0 24

50

3

6

0.25 - 0.50acre

58

$ 1,100,000

5

0

24

3.5

4,501 -6,500 sqft

92.5

1440 4,501 -6,500 sqft

24

$ 812,000

3.5

128

0.25 - 0.50acre$ 1,447,450

4.0$ 2,343,500

40

9

2405

Inventory has been decreasing latelybut the Market Action Index is fallingalso. With days-on-market climbing,these are relatively negativeimplications for the market.

Monday October 30, 2017

Kristin Evans | Altos Research | 415-932-8152

24

1930

2.0

The median list price in SANTA CRUZ,CA this week is $1,199,000. The 96properties have been on the marketfor an average of 79 days.

Most expensive 25% of properties

Upper-middle 25% of properties

Lower-middle 25% of properties

Least expensive 25% of properties

Quartile Median Price Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOMSq. Ft.

No change

Strong upward trend Strong downward trend

Slight upward trend Slight downward trend±+

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SANTA CRUZ, CACity Overview

Least Expensive Listing

Average List Price

Average Age of Listing

96

$ 6,950,000

$ 499,000

$ 1,604,389

47

Trend Key:

The market has been at a stasispoint in terms of sales to inventory.However, prices seem to continue tofall a bit. Technically supply levelsindicate this is a Seller's market so itis likely that the downward pricingpressure will be light or variable.

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Single Family Homes in


City OverviewSANTA CRUZ, CA


Median PriceThe market seems to have paused around this plateau. The Market Action Index is a good leading indicator for the durability ofthis trend.

90-day Average7-day Average

Quartile PricesPrice weakness is visible almost across the board. Prices in Quartile 4 have been mixed recently, while the rest of the market istrending downward. Look to a strong, persistent up shift in the Market Action Index as a leading indicator of the trough in themarket.

First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/Bottom

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Price per Square FootThe market plateau is seen across the price and value. The price per square foot and median list price have both beenreasonably stagnant. Watch the Market Action Index for persistent changes as a leading indicator before the market moves fromthese levels.


Inventory of Properties Listed for SaleInventory has been falling in recent weeks. Note that declining inventory alone does not signal a strengthening market. Look tothe Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is changing with the available supply.


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Market Action IndexThe SANTA CRUZ market is currently quite strongly in the Seller's Advantage zone (greater than 30). The 90-day Market ActionIndex stands at 46.88; indicating very little supply relative to the demand.

Buyers/Sellers Cutoff90-day Average

Market Action Index per QuartileNot surprisingly, all segments in the market are showing high levels of demand. Watch the quartiles for changes before thewhole market changes. Often one end of the market (e.g. the high-end) will weaken before the rest of the market and signal aslowdown for the whole group.


Buyers/Sellers Cutoff

Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterizedby analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer’sAdvantage zone (below 30) for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction.

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Days on MarketThe properties have been on the market for an average of 79 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in thepast 49 or so days.


Days on Market per QuartileIt is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles.


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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

48.5


2305

2.5

4 %


80


$ 561


0.25 - 0.50 acre


$ 1,199,995

33 %

3.0

Market Action Index



65 %


Strong Seller's

≠

±+

≠

=

≠




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


29 33873

832.0 51

3.0

3

54

3.0 13

58

2

3

0.50 - 1.0acre

65

$ 1,149,500

3

0

13

3.5

4,501 -6,500 sqft

43.0

1422 6,501 -8,000 sqft

13

$ 799,000

4.0

129

0.25 - 0.50acre$ 1,399,000

4.0$ 2,297,000

40

5

2811

Inventory has been lightening latelyand the Market Action Index has beentrending up. Though days-on-marketis increasing, these are mildly positiveindications for the market.



12

2129

2.0

The median list price in SANTA CRUZ,CA 95060 this week is $1,199,995. The51 properties have been on themarket for an average of 80 days.






No change



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≠=

SANTA CRUZ, CA95060

Neighborhood Detail


Average List Price


51

$ 4,900,000

$ 559,000

$ 1,444,700

48

Trend Key:

The market has started cooling andprices have recently plateaued.Since we're in the Seller's zone,watch for changes in MAI. If the MAIresumes its climb, prices will likelyfollow suit. If the MAI dropsconsistently or falls into the Buyer'szone, watch for downward pressureon prices.

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Neighborhood DetailSANTA CRUZ, CA

95060


Median PriceAgain this week in this zip code we see a downward notch for prices. Pricing has been weak in recent weeks and versus theirabsolute-high level. At this point, we will be looking for a persistent upward shift in the Market Action Index as a leadingindicator for a trough in prices.


Quartile PricesIn the quartile market segments, we see prices in this zip code have generally settled at a plateau, although Quartile 1 has beentrending a bit downward in recent weeks. We'll need to see a persistent shift in the Market Action Index before we see pricesacross the board move from these levels.


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95060


Price per Square FootThe market's downward trends are shared across both price and value. People are recently placing less value on homes (you cansee the recent declines in price per square foot as evidence.) Look for significant changes in the Market Action Index as aprecursor to price and value changes, possibly as inflection points for good investment opportunities.




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95060


Market Action IndexThe SANTA CRUZ, 95060 market is currently quite strongly in the Seller's Advantage zone (greater than 30). The 90-day MarketAction Index stands at 48.48; indicating very little supply relative to the demand.


Market Action Index per QuartileNot surprisingly, all segments in this zip code are showing high levels of demand. Watch the quartiles for changes before thewhole market changes. Often one end of the market (e.g. the high-end) will weaken before the rest of the market and signal aslowdown for the whole group.




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95060






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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

46.0


1802

2.0

0 %


65


$ 781


4,501 - 6,500 sqft


$ 1,199,000

28 %

3.0

Market Action Index



56 %


Strong Seller's

±+

≠≠

≠≠

=

=




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


26 12720

662.2 53

3.0

1

55

3.0 10

41

1

2

4,501 -6,500 sqft

53

$ 1,099,495

2

0

10

3.5

Less than4,500 sqft

32.0

1611 4,501 -6,500 sqft

10

$ 889,000

3.0

103

Less than4,500 sqft$ 1,495,000

3.0$ 2,400,000

58

5

1760

The Market Action index has beentrending down lately, while days-on-market is climbing, providing mostlybearish signs for the market.



9

1616

2.0

The median list price in SANTA CRUZ,CA 95062 this week is $1,199,000. The39 properties have been on themarket for an average of 65 days.






No change



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SANTA CRUZ, CA95062

Neighborhood Detail


Average List Price


39

$ 6,950,000

$ 739,950

$ 1,788,118

47

Trend Key:

In the last few weeks, the MarketAction Index has resumed a climb.Despite the fact that we're in aSeller's market, prices have not yetresumed upward momentum.However, it is likely that given theseconditions, prices will at least leveloff very soon. If the increasingtrend continues, expect that pricescould shift higher quickly.

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95062


Median PriceWe continue to see prices in this zip code hovering around these current levels, even though they bumped up a bit this week.Look for a persistent up-shift in the Market Action Index before we see prices move significantly from here.


Quartile PricesIn the quartile market segments, we see the market's price weakness almost across the board. Prices in Quartile 4 have beenmixed recently, while the rest of the market is trending downward. Look for a strong, persistent up shift in the Market ActionIndex as a leading indicator of the trough in the market.


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95062


Price per Square FootWhile prices have been basically flat, the price per square foot has been heading downward. While not a sign of broad strengthin a market, larger homes are coming more available and buyers are tending to get more home for their money.


Inventory of Properties Listed for SaleInventory has been relatively steady around these levels in recent weeks.


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95062








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95062






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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

46.3


2744

2.8

0 %


162


$ 579


2.5 - 5.0 acres


$ 1,472,000

50 %

3.5

Market Action Index



100 %


Strong Seller's

≠≠

=

±+

==

±+




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


10 04500

1192.8 38

2.5

0

63

3.5 2

63

0

1

20+ acres

54

$ 1,472,000

0

0

2

5.5

5.0 - 10acres

03.5

1458 0.25 - 0.50acre

1

$ 693,500

4.0

546

2.5 - 5.0acres$ 1,799,000

4.0$ 4,475,000

40

0

3278

Inventory has been decreasing latelybut the Market Action Index is fallingalso. With days-on-market climbing,these are relatively negativeimplications for the market.



1

2744

2.0

The median list price in SANTA CRUZ,CA 95065 this week is $1,472,000. The6 properties have been on the marketfor an average of 162 days.






No change



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≠=

SANTA CRUZ, CA95065

Neighborhood Detail


Average List Price


6

$ 4,475,000

$ 499,000

$ 1,767,500

39

Trend Key:

In the last few weeks the market hasachieved a relative stasis point interms of sales to inventory.However, inventory is sufficientlylow to keep us in the Seller's Marketzone and prices have recentlyresumed upward pressure.

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95065


Median PriceDespite this week's down tic, price trends in this zip code have generally been moving up lately. We are below the market's highpoint, and we'll investigate the Market Action Index later on to see if we expect this week's blip to become a downward trend.


Quartile PricesIn the quartile market segments, we see the high-end (Quartiles 1 and 2) of the market in this zip code showing some pricestrength in recent weeks, while Quartile 4 is down and Quartile 3 is at a bit of a plateau. Without strong directional indication inpricing, we look at the Market Action Index for a leading indicator of where prices in general are heading.


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95065


Price per Square FootIn a market where prices are rising fairly consistently, price per square foot is essentially flat. This often implies that newhomes coming on the market are pricier, and also larger than older homes. As a result the value one can buy stays the same.




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95065








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95065






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