l07 becoming invisible
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LECTURE L07BECOMING INVISIBLE
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Steve Jobs Apple Special Event 27. January 2010
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iPad
The iPad was released April 3rd From January to April there was a lot of discussion about the iPad
And there were more sceptics than not
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And how was the response, again?
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300,000 iPads were sold on their first day of availability By May 3, 2010, Apple had sold a million iPads
iPad
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Inflection Point
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Shift in Computing
Where is the C-drive?
Computer anyone can use
The computer just disappeared
Computer you use standing
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Shifting focus
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Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
TECHNOLOGY CONSUMER
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Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
OBVIOUS INVISIBLE
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Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
ANALYTICAL THINKINGEMOTIONS AND
FEELINGS
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User Centred DesignDon Norman
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Computers are still pretty complicated technology
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Consumer Devices
The Computer and the Internet
disappear
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Source: Morgan Stanley Research https://techpinions.com/the-terrible-tablet-tantrum-part-1/30840
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Inflection pointsWhen technology changes business
Rapid growth starts
Decline of growth starts
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Hype Curve
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Wired Magazine editor (former) Chris Anderson on the Hype Curve and forecasting
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TheHypeCycle Agraphicrepresentationofthematurity,adoptionandbusinessapplicationofspecifictechnologies
Peak of inflated Expectations
Technology TriggerTrough of Disillusionment
Slope of Enlightenment
Plateau of Productivity
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NASDAQJanuary2000
The Internet Bubble
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NASDAQJanuary2000
The Internet Bubble
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NASDAQJanuary2000
The Internet Bubble
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Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides
GROWTH INTO THE BUBBLE
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Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides
GROWTH SINCE THE BUBBLE
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The Internet Bubble
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The Railway Bubble
RailwayStockinBritainThevalueofrailwaystockgrew4foldfrom1826to1846Manycompanies,heavyover-investmentThebubbleburst1846
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Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Technology Trends
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Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Predicting the Future
All important technologies go through four states, or at least four stages, in their lives. Each stage can be seen as a collision, with something else. The stages are:
1. Critical Price 2. Critical Mass 3. Displace another technology 4. Become nearly free
Theory of Predicting the Future
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Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
TECHNOLOGY CONSUMER
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Industrial Design
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As technology matures, design becomes important
Industrial Design
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Technology Adoption Life Cycle
The talent of the company that made the product in the early days may become wrong when the product matures
The organisational structure of companies need to change when the company moves from technology to products/services
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Organisations which design systems ... are constrained to
produce designs which are copies of the communication structures
of these organisations
Conway’s Law
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To whom does the designer report to? A programmer?
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1983 1997
Jonathan Ive
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TECHNOLOGYBUSINESSDESIGN
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When will the earlymajority pragmaticsstart buying a product?
The value of the productis sufficiently great orgood-enough
Technology Life Cycle
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Earlyinthecycle,technologyisimportant Whentechnologybecomesgoodenough:
ValuebecomesmoreimportantDesignbecomesmoreimportantTechnologyisnolongerthevariablethatcontrolspurchasesImprovementsloosetheirglamour
Customersarelookingforthingslikevalueconvenience,productivity,ease-of-use,low-cost,reliability
Emotions
Technology Life Cycle
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Life Cycle of Technology ThemovefromTechnologytoCommodity
Theneed-satisfactioncurveoftechnology
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The Market of CommoditiesWhat happens when a market becomes mature? Karaoke Capitalism takes over
Red oceans All the industries in existence today —the known market space Industry boundaries are defined and accepted, and the competitive rules of the game are known
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Strategy for creating new markets Make the competition irrelevant Blue oceans denote all the industries not in existence today—the unknown market space, untainted by competition
Creating Blue Oceans
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Instead of focusing on beating the competition, you focus on making the competition irrelevant by creating a leap in value for your buyers and your company, thereby opening up new and uncontested market space
Value Innovation
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DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY
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