l14 software and machine learning
TRANSCRIPT
LECTURE L14SOFTWARE AND MACHINE LEARNING
The Software Crisis
Software
As computers became more powerful and more common, a new problem surfaced: software
Development of computers was a hardware problem
Software or programs did not get the same attention
Operating systems were primitive and programming was done at a very low level
“[The major cause of the software crisis is] that the machines have become several orders of magnitude more powerful!”
- Edsger Dijkstra, The Humble Programmer
Source:Software_crisis
Software Engineering was not a established field
Became known as The Software Crisis
The Software Crisis
Q1
What solved the software crisis?
IBM developed OS/360 for System 360
DEC developed VMS for VAX
Unix was grew out individual efforts as response to Multix
System V, BSD, Solaris
Minix was an academic effort, Linux grew out of frustration with Minix license
Operating Systems
FORTRANMathematical Formula Translation System Released in 1957
Higher level language that became breakthrough in writing software
Created by John Backus of IBM
Came on 2.000 punched cards Other languages followed: COBOL, Algol
Programming Languages
May 25, 1961
Status:
Mainframe era, mini computer early days
Transistor era, integrated circuits just invented
Programming languages new
Q2What role did the US space program have on computer innovation?
“The space program badly needed the things the integrated circuit could provide.”
- Jack St. Clair Kilby
Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore founded Intel Semiconductor company
Initial focus was on memory chips
There was still enormous potential market for calculations
The vision of Charles Babbage was still not realized but the mainframe market met the needs of governments and large organizations
Semiconductor Industry is Born
Intel introduced the first microprocessor 4004 in 1971
8008 in 1972, 8080 in 1974 and 8088 in 1979
The beginning of the PC
The Microprocessor
The MicroprocessorIntel was really reluctant to go into the microchip business
No market existed No demand at the time
Intel created 4004 for another company
They would not market chips, but built them when ordered
The company cancelled the order and Intel was forced to offer them for sale
Q3
What was the first product in the market after the introduction of computer chips?
HINT: It disrupted a device that was invented in1625
The Calculator
The Calculator
Advances in technology introduced the desktop calculator
The market grew fast With advances, the calculators became more powerful and smaller
Pocket calculators Became widespread in the 70s
Replaced the slide rule after 374 years
Calculator Wars
Many companies start to make Calculators Casio, Sharp, Canon, HP, MITS and more
In Europe, Aristo, Denner & Pape, a slide rule manufacturer since 1872, also entered the market in 1972
Price dropped fast: $400 in 1972, $200, $100 and $50 in 1974
Companies like MITS need to find new ways of revenues
Think about this!
All mini-computer companies hadwhat it would take to go into smallscale products – they even hadpeople proposing the idea, but they did not!
The Personal Computer
The Personal Computer
MITS marketed Altair in 1975 Came with Intel 8080
Users needed to assemble the machine themselves No keyboard, no screen, no printer 256 byte of RAM, programmed with switches
Included BASIC interpreter from Microsoft Written by Bill Gates and Paul Allen Cost of $397 appealed to computer enthusiasts
Microsoft is BornBill Gates and Paul Allen
Wrote a BASIC interpreter for the Altair
Founded a company they called Micro-Soft
Enter Apple
Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak
Show the Apple I in the Palo Alto
Homebrew Computer Club in 1976
Apple II was marketed 1977 and became a huge success - “Apple growth”
Hewlett-Packard had turn Wozniak down – no market
“ThePersonalComputerwillfallflatonitsfaceinbusiness.”
-KenOlsen
Computer Companies
Existing computer companies were not interested in PCs
DEC, HP, IBM, and Control Data did not see a business model HP rejected a proposal from Steve Wozniak DEC rejected a proposal from David Ahl
Support for machines like this was considered impossible
Consequence: The development of the PC had to begin with hobbyists
Think About This!
The Liquid Network
The Software IndustryFirst applications were non-serious
Soon business applications started to emerge
VisiCalc was the “killer-app” 20% of computer sales was due to this program
Other business apps appeared: Ledgers, payrolls, inventory, etc.
Disruptive technology
Killer AppsDan Bricklin and Bob Frankston Created VisiCalc, the first spreadsheet The spreadsheet created a new market
People bought the hardware to run the software
Q4
IBM successfully entered the PC market – according to RPV theory this would be difficult. How did they do this?
IBM PC
IBM decided to enter the PC revolution
The company was loosing market share, competition was growing
Project “Chess”Bill Lowe was given one year to create a Personal Computer – “Acorn”
Lowe and his team – “Dirty Dozen”, went to work in Boca Raton, FL
Looked for parts outside of the company
The War of the OS
IBM needed an Operating System
Most popular system was Digital Research CP/M, created by Gary Kildall
Microsoft was providing programming languagesand suggested that IBM make a deal with DR
Robert X. Cringely PBS documentary
The Birth of the Microsoft DOS
The War of the OS
IBM decided on PC-DOS from Microsoft which bought the OS from another company
Negotiated revenue sharing with IBM In the 80s, DOS had 90% of the OS market
PC-DOS
Small system Came on a floppy
IBM PCThe IBM PC was introduced 12. August 1981 in New York
4.7 MHz Intel 8088, 16 kb RAM,
DOS 1.0 for $1.565
Enter the Clones
Enter the Clones
IBM released all the specification of the machine Open system
This allowed new entrants to create IBM compatible machines Compac was one of them
Enter the ClonesIBM controlled the market for a few years
They rationalised their product lines - deliberately restricted performance of lower-priced models in order to prevent them from cannibalising higher-priced models
The Compac passed them in 1986 with the Intel 386 machines
The PC market took off
IBM started to loose market share
PC Compatible Machines Ruled
Early 80s IBM PC became the standard hardware
MS-DOS became the industry standard OS
Command Line Interface – CLI Text User Interfaces – TUI
Key Trend
Focus in on hardware, the software is good-enough
Adoption Life Cycle
Still in the early stages – technology is the focus
“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” - Alan Key
“The Demo” of the Century in 1968
The Demo 1968
The Demo in 1968Doug Engelbart at the Augmentation Research Centre in Melno Park
Demonstrated the future of computing
Features
A pointing device – the Mouse Hypertext, graphical user interface
Dynamic file linking
Shared-screen collaboration involving two persons at different sites communicating over a network with audio and video interface
Xerox Parc
Xerox Parc
Alto Computer 1972
Xerox created a lab in 1970
Palo Alto Research Park – PARC
PARC was a place for visionaries
The Alto computer system had Graphical User Interface – GUI and a mouse as an input
Desktop metaphor with Files and folders
Then Steve came on a visit
Graphical User Interfaces – GUI
Steve Jobs visited Xerox PARC 1979 Negotiated at deal with Xerox
They showed him: Object Oriented ProgrammingComputer networksGraphical User Interface
Apple started to work on this vision The Pirate Years
RPV TheoryXerox had just build theOS of the future but theydid nothing with it
Graphical User Interfaces – GUIDesktop metaphor
Point, Click, Drag
Files,foldersIcons
Windows,scrollbars
Menus
Graphicalfonts Clipboard,cutandpaste,undo
Point,activate,select
Apple LisaFirst commercial computer with a GUI
Introduced in January 1983 Cost $9.995
Motorola 68000 CPU at a 5 MHz clock rate and had 1MB RAM
Featured cooperative (non-preemptive) multi-tasking and virtual memory
Q5
Why did the Lisa fail?
Apple Lisa
First commercial computer with a GUI
Introduced in January 1983 Cost $9.995
Impact: Business failure Too expensive Too slow
Adjacent Possible
Technology wasn’t there yet
MacintoshIn 1984, Apple launched Macintosh Cost $1.995
Graphical User Interface
This set the standard for Operating Systems
Specification: 128 KB of RAM Screen was a 9-inch, 512x342 pixel monochrome display
Macintosh
Acceptance was slow The Mac was underpowered The GUI required memory and power
Writing Software was difficult
Gained popularity in education and with graphical designers – desktop publishers
Not so popular in the traditional business sector Microsoft provided applications (office apps)
Others Join the GameMicrosoft launched Windows 1.01 in 1985
Gates and Microsoft believed Graphical User Interfaces were the future
Regarded Front-end to DOS
Other players IBM TopView, DR GEM
Impact Software companies ignored Windows The business sector was not ready
DOS was in Crisis
By 1985 Microsoft had released DOS 3
But frustration increased
Q6
What were customers looking for?
DOS was in CrisisSingle task system – you can only run one program at the time
The 640 KB memory barrier TSR – Terminate and Stay Resident became popular but was causing problems
Users were looking for multitasking
Run more than one program at a time
More advanced operating system was needed
Windows 3.0Windows finally became usable Released May 1990
Better use of memory Multitasking Used the 286 and 386 hardware better Support for CD-ROM Solitaire
Impact: First GUI used by the PC market The end of DOS, finally
Windows 95
KEY TREND
Computers become consumer devices
Windows 95
Microsoft turned to consumers Windows 95 was targeted at the consumer market Support for the Internet Internet Explorer Friendlier user interfaces
Impact
Released with great fanfare Came to dominate the OS market The OS become more important than the hardware
Operating System for Consumers
Operating Systems Today
Ubuntu
Mac OS X
Windows
More choices, less important
Operating Systems Today
iOS
Android
Lessons
▪ Shift from hardware to software▪ None of the minicomputer makers became a
significant factor in the desktop personal computer market
▪ The PC was disruptive technology▪ The minicomputer users were not buying PCs –
yet▪ This created a new set of entrants: Apple, Tandy,
Commodore, and IBM
▪ In the late 1980s the performance of PCs met the needs of minicomputer users
▪ This severely wounded minicomputer makers – many of them failed
▪ At same time IBM succeeded in entering the PC market – how?
▪ It created an autonomous organization in Florida – far away from it’s New York headquarters
▪ They created the PC market▪ Then headquarters took control and lost control to
the Clones
Lessons
▪ Xerox mangement did not enter the computer market
▪ PARC members tried to show management – but they “just didn’t get it”
▪ Xerox is in the copying documents business – their customers were not asking for computer systems
▪ Visionary Computers did not fit their resources, processes and values– RPV theory
Lessons
▪ Doug Englebart envisioned the future of computers
▪ Xerox PARC built the visionary computer – but did not pursue it
▪ Early enthusiast like Ed Roberts of MITS and others did not get rich of computers and software
▪ Visionaries like Dan Bricklin and Bob Frankston invented VisiCalc – did not make much money
Lessons
Lessons
▪ Bill Gates saw the potential of software and started Microsoft
▪ Took the opportunity with MITS▪ Focused on software▪ Gary Kildall invented the C/PM system but Microsoft
bought similar OS and succeeded▪ Wrote software for Apple and later Macintosh▪ You don’t have to have superior products to win▪ You don’t have to invent technology – just use it
Lessons
▪ Apple and Steve Jobs saw the potential of computers and then GUIs
▪ GUI were slow to appear▪ Infrastructure product - needs software and users▪ Stretched the hardware at the time▪ Disruptive with new market – consumers▪ Apple Lisa failed – lacking in performance▪ The Macintosh started slowly and found some niche
market in Desktop Publishing and schools
Lessons
▪ Windows 95 was marketed to the consumer▪ First mass market of Operating Systems– The Internet helped▪ Today we have three major Operating Systems– Linux (Unix based)– MacOS (Unix based)– Windows
Q7
What is the future of Personal Computers and Operating Systems?
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
HardwareeraPC,Mac
SoftwareOSeraWindows,Office,MacOS
InternetHardwareConnects
IBMPC Microsoft
Apple
2010
SoftwareweberaWeb2.0,Social
2015
Internetofthings
PC Evolution
Interaction is changing to natural interaction
Computers are changing shape and becoming
invisible
Wearables, flyable, drivable, scannable…
The Network is the Computer
The Internet cloud
More programs and data is stored on network servers
The Personal Computer becomes one of the form factors to access the network
Examples Amazon API Google Apps Facework Platform API
Machine Learning
Machine Learning
Breakthroughs in computer performance (GPUs), algorithms, cloud computing and big data, has finally created an environment where neural networks - systems that learn have become a reality
The ideas of learning systems came very early but failed to become practical
Fraud detection Web search results Real-time ads on web pages and mobile devices Text-based sentiment analysis Credit scoring and next-best offers Prediction of equipment failures New pricing models Network intrusion detection Pattern and image recognition Email spam filtering
Application
Google has TensorFlow, an Open Source Software Library for Machine Intelligence
Machine Learning Platform
Now platforms are becoming available
Amazon has Amazon Machine Learning
Microsoft is providing machine learning as part of Cortana Analytics Suite
Human intelligence
Artificial intelligence We are here
Inte
lligen
ce
Time
Machine Intelligence
Next
L15 Augmented and Virtual Reality