labor market report poland lingling zhang, raphael becker university of bonn october 15, 2014
TRANSCRIPT
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Labor Market Report Poland
Lingling Zhang, Raphael Becker
University of BonnOctober 15, 2014
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Log GDP1
0.6
10.
81
11
1.2
11.
4
1995q1 2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1
Date
log GDP HP - Filter Trend
Log GDP and HP Trend
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Deviations in Log GDP-.
04-.
020
.02
.04
gdp
cycl
e
1995q1 2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1
Date
Real GDP Percentage Deviation from HP- trend
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Unemployment and GDP Growth0
51
01
52
0U
nem
ploy
me
nt R
ate
1995q1 2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1
Date
Poland GDP_Growth GDP-Growth Filtered
Poland Poland Filtered
Total Unemployment Rate and GDP-Growth
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Labor Market Statistics
Poland US Poland US
Unemployment 13.1% 6.1% SD (unempl.) 4.36% 1.82%
SD (vacancies) 0.20% 0.40%
SD (GDP) 1.05% 0.66%
SD(u)/SD(GDP) 4.15 2.76
Table 1 Labor Market Statistics Poland vs. US
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60
65
70
75
80
Lab
or F
orc
e P
artic
ipa
tion
Rat
e
1995q1 2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1
Date
Poland US
Total Labor Force Participation Rate
Total Labor Force Participation
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20
40
60
80
Lab
or F
orc
e P
artic
ipa
tion
Rat
e
2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1Date
Age 15 - 24 Age 25 - 54Age 54 - 55
Labor Force Participation Rate by Age
Labor Force by Age
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51
01
52
0U
nem
ploy
me
nt R
ate
2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 2015m1Date
EU PolandUS
Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate
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01
02
03
04
0U
nem
ploy
me
nt R
ate
2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1Date
Age 15 - 24 Age 25 - 54Age 55 - 65
Unemployment Rate by Age
Unemployment Rate by Age
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22
.53
3.5
Ratio
of U
nem
plo
ymen
t R
ate
s
1998m1 2000m1 2002m1 2004m1 2006m1 2008m1 2010m1 2012m1 2014m1Date
EU US
Poland
Youth-Adult Unemployment Ratio
Youth – Adult Unemployment Ratio
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02
04
06
08
01
00S
har
e o
f Un
emp
loym
ent b
y D
ura
tion
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015Date
Poland < 1 Year Poland > 1 YearUS < 1 Year US > 1 Year
Duration of Unemployment
Duration of Unemployment
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02
04
06
0L
ong
Te
rm U
nem
ploy
me
nt
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015Date
Poland Males US Males
Poland Females US Females
Long Term Unemployment in % of Total Unemployment
Long Term Unemployment
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3040
5060
70S
hare
of L
abor
Mar
ket P
olic
ies
in %
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012Date
LMP Measures (Cat. 2 - 7) LMP Supports (Cat. 8 - 9)
Labor Market Policies
Labor Market Policies
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New
Zea
land
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Can
ada
Uni
ted
Kin
...
Chi
le
Aus
tral
ia
Est
onia
Irel
and
Hun
gary
Japa
n
Sw
itzer
land
Fin
land
Kor
ea
Isra
el
Slo
vak
Rep
.
Spa
in
Nor
way
Den
mar
k
Pol
and
Gre
ece
Aus
tria
Icel
and
Tur
key
Sw
eden
Mex
ico
Cze
ch R
ep.
Slo
veni
a
Por
tuga
l
Luxe
mbo
urg
Ital
y
Fra
nce
Net
herla
nds
Bel
gium
Ger
man
y
Sau
di A
rabi
a
Bra
zil
Sou
th A
fric
a
Rus
sian
Fed
.
Indi
a
Arg
entin
a
Latv
ia
Indo
nesi
a
Chi
na
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Collective dismissals Individual dismissals OECD average: 2.29Scale 0-6
Protection of permanent workers against individual and collective dismissals, 2013*
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Beveridge Curve
01
23
4V
aca
ncy
Rat
e in
%
4 6 8 10 12Unemployment Rate in %
US (2001Q1 - 2014Q2) Poland (2007Q1 - 2014Q2)
Beveridge Curve Poland vs US