labour force potential and its realization: case of latvia

LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE

OF LATVIA

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OF LATVIA

Inara Kantane, Inta Krumina


OF LATVIA

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The prezentation outlines analyses of the labour force potential and efficiency in Latvia, and determines factors, which influence labour force amount and their implications on the labour force marked changes in the future.


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Data:

EUROSTAT (Population Projections),

Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia (Labour Force Surveys, Life Tables),

EU Structural Fund National Programme’s ‘Labour Market Survey’ (Sample Survey of Employees)

Method: Working Life Tables


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Potential labour force is made up of all those people aged between fifteen years and sixty five years, who are not excluded from the definition of the potential labour force for reasons - being in prison, full time student etc.


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.

Size of population, age and structure

Economicaly active life expectany and losses of the labour force potential due to the death

Loses of the labour force potential due to the illness and invalidity

Potential of the labour force in correlation with the profession and occupation, and correlation with the last obtained eductaion


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Forecasted old-age dependency ratio,2060, %

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

EU (27 countries)

Poland

Slovakia

Lithuania

Romania

Latvia

Bulgaria

Slovenia

Czech Republic

Italy

Germany

Spain

Malta

Hungary

Greece

Estonia

Portugal

Austria

Finland

Switzerland

Netherlands

Sweden

Belgium

France

Cyprus

Norway

Ireland

Denmark

United Kingdom

Luxembourg


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The indicator old-age dependency ratio is defined as the number of persons aged 65 and over expressed as a percentage of the number of persons aged between 15 and 64.

World population is aging. The population projections for the period 1008-2060 come from a report issued by Eurostat, the official Statistical Office of the European Communities shows that EU27 will become older thorought the projection period due in particularly persistently low fertility and an increasing number of survivors to higher ages.


OF LATVIA

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This aging process would occur in all Member States.

The aging of the population has also affected Latvia – there is a decrease of the labour force potential versus the total size of the potential.


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Analysis of the survey proves that in 2060 old-age dependency ratio in Latvia would be way above the average EU levels, i.e.for one employed person in the age group from 15-64 years. In other words, there would be only two persons of working age for every person aged 65 or more.


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Number of population by age group in Latvia, 2005-2051

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

2032

2035

2038

2041

2044

2047

2050

0-14

15-64

65-7475+

The analysis show that in 2051 in Latvia 25% of the population will be younger than 25 years, in 2007 respective figure is 22 years – increase by 3 years.

One fourth of population will be older than 65 years, increase compared with 2007 is estimated by 8 years.


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Share of population by age group in Latvia, 2005-2051

0,0%

20,0%

40,0%

60,0%

80,0%

100,0%

120,0%

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

2032

2035

2038

2041

2044

2047

2050

0-14

15-64

65-74

75+


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Gross years of working life or gross working life expectancy in the begining of the age (GWLE) serves as a measure of the aggregate level of age-specific economic activity rates and therefore is independent from the population’s age structure.


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Net years of working life or net working life expectancyin the begining of the age (NWLE), unlike that of gross years, takes into account both age specific economic activity and mortality.


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Comparison of gross and net years of working life establishes probable losses from the economically active population due to mortality in years (GWLE- NWLE)and in percent (losses divided by gross years of working life).


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Economically active and inactive stationary population

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Economically active Economically inactiveAge


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Gross and net working life expectancy in the begining for age 0, males in Latvia

0

10

20

30

40

50

1989 1995 2000 2004 2006 2007

NWLE GWLE- NWLE


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Gross and net working life expectancy in the begining for age 0, females in Latvia

05

1015202530354045

1989 1995 2000 2004 2006 2007

NWLE GWLE- NWLE


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Gross years of working life expectancy in Latvia by age, 2007

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

17,5 22,5 27,5 32,5 37,5 42,5 47,5 52,5 57,5 62,5 67,5

Males Females


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Net years of working life expectancy in Latvia by age, 2007

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

17,5 22,5 27,5 32,5 37,5 42,5 47,5 52,5 57,5 62,5 67,5

Males Females


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Stationary population and active population, by sex and age group, 2007

600000 400000 200000 0 200000 400000 600000

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

Males Females


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Population and economically active population, by sex and

age group, 2007

100000 50000 0 50000 100000

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

Males Females


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Economically active population by sex and age group, 2007

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

17,5 22,5 27,5 32,5 37,5 42,5 47,5 52,5 57,5 62,5

Males Females


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‘Sample Survey of Employees” for population in the age between 15 and 75 years


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Economically active population by age and employment status

Employees Employers Persons who looked for a job

Self-employed Working-retired

Employment status

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ag

e 9311 020

10 056

3 5143 656828


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Economically active population by age, employment status and sex

Employees Employers Persons who looked

for a job

Self-employed

Working-retired

Employment status

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ag

e

10 056

7 968

3 895

1 753

8289311 020

3 5143 656

SexMale

Female


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Economically active persons by employment status and by

the occupation relation to the last education (%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Employees Employers Persons w holooked for a job


Related Not related


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Economically active males by employment status and by


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%



Related Not related


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Economically active females by employment status and by


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%



Related Not related


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Economicaly active population by education qualification and by the occupation relation to the last education, %

0%

10%20%

30%

40%50%

60%

70%

80%90%

100%

Highereducation

Vocationaleducation andprofessionalsecondaryeducation

Generaleducation

Basic education Less than basiceducation

Related Not related


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Economically active population by the sector and by the occupation relation to the last education, %

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Public sector Nongovernmentorganization

Private sector

Related Not related


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Conclusions and suggestion

To decrease the death rates for the labour in the economically active age, especially for the man in the age 40-60 years.

Calculation of the Working life tables for the population in Latvia, in order to evaluate the losses of labour force potential due to the illnesses would prove complete and temporarily losses in the working potential

To increase the maximally possible work activities for retired population and rehabilitated gandicaped population


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Education and professional education in order to increase the adjustment possibilities for population in the labour market

Taxation, especially for support to handicapped labour

labour force potential and its realization: case of latvia

Documents

potential labour force

case of latviaanalysis

case of latviaworld

case of latviainara

persons of working age

size of population

age group

number of persons