Labour Wellness & Stability: Steps

Towards a Healthier Outcome for All

Dr Azar JammineDirector & Chief Economist of

Econometrix

IMF Forecasts for Growth of Sub-Saharan Countries2014-2019

Ethiopia 8.1Mozambique 8.0Libya 7.8Mauritania 7.6Côte d'Ivoire 7.4Democratic Republic of the Congo 7.4Rwanda 7.1Nigeria 7.0Tanzania 7.0Zambia 6.9Burkina Faso 6.8Uganda 6.5Kenya 6.3Angola 5.9Malawi 5.4Ghana 5.3Lesotho 5.1Mali 5.0Senegal 5.0

Morocco 4.9Namibia 4.5Guinea 4.4Botswana 4.1Mauritius 3.9Zimbabwe 3.9Algeria 3.9Egypt 3.6South Africa 2.4Swaziland 1.9Source: IMF WEO, Oct14

Current Account % of GDPThe Economist Poll 2014

Singapore 19.7 Taiwan 11.8 Malaysia 6.0 South Korea 5.8 Russia 3.3 Philippines 3.0 Thailand 2.6 Hungary 2.0 China 2.0 Israel 1.8 Venezuela 1.5 Czech Republic 0.2 Argentina -0.9 Poland -1.2 Mexico -1.7 Chile -1.9 Egypt -2.5 India -2.8 Indonesia -3.5 Brazil -3.6 Colombia -3.7 Peru -4.8 RSA -5.4 Turkey -5.8

Economist: 7 Oct 2014

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Exchange rate : Rand/US$

Source: Omega

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Trade balance for the automotive industry

Imports (R billion) Exports (R billion) New forex usage (R

billion)

2013 126.7 (136.1) 102.7 (86.9) -24.0 (-49.2)

EU 60.6 (62.6) 35.1 (34.0) -25.5 (-28.6)

NAFTA 7.5 (10.7) 19.1 (20.9) 11.6 (10.2)

Africa (incl. SADC) 0.5 (0.2) 30.2 (17.8) 29.7 (17.6)

MERCOSUR 3.8 (4.5) 2.0 (1.5) -1.8 (-3.0)

Other regions 54.3 (58.1) 16.3 (12.7) -38.0 (-45.4)

(2012)

Source: AIEC, SARS

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08 09 10 11 12 13 14

%CPI Inflation

Source: Statistics South Africa

Number of Employees

Gain/Loss of Jobs for December of each year

Formal Sector (Non-agriculture) 2006 - 2013

TOTAL 273 000

Mining 24 000

Manufacturing -186 000

Electricity, Gas & Water 9 000

Construction -39 000

Trade, Hotels & Non-Financial Services -7 000

Transport & Communications 12 000

Financial & Business Services 49 000

Community Services 411 000

Source: Quarterly Employment Survey

Global Competitiveness Index

Rank 2014/2015 Score (1-7)

GCI 2014-2015 (out of 144) 56 4.4

GCI 2013-2014 (out of 148) 53 4.4

GDI 2006-2007 (out of 125) 45 4.4

Sample Size 144

Health & primary education 132 4.0

Quality of math and science education 144 1.9

Labour market efficiency 113 3.8

Cooperation in labor-employer relations 144 2.5

Source: The Global Competitiveness Report

Causes of Unemployment, Poverty & Inequality

• Inadequacy of education & skills development

• Adversarial labour market environment

• Relatively weak entrepreneurship & SMME environment

Matric Results Public Schools

2013% of Total who started

in 2002

Started School 12 yrs earlier 1 286 591 100.0

No writing matric 562 112 43.7

No passing matric 439 779 34.2

No receiving university endorsement 171 755 13.3

No receiving university technology endorsement 173 292 13.5

Maths > 30% 142 666 11.1

Source: Department of Education

Reasons for Militancy of Strikes

Poor credit position of miners

Union rivalry

Rising inequality

Attempt to overthrow existing capitalistic structure

Thank you

NDP Proposals to Increase Employment & Growth

• Improve skills base

• Raise exports

• Increase size & effectiveness of innovation system

• Improve functioning of labour market

• Support small businesses

• Reduce regulatory burden

• Increase investment in social & economic infrastructure

• Improve capacity of the state

• Greater cooperation between public & private sectors

• Corruption

Will MTSF be implemented?• A medium term version of the NDP to cover period 2014-19• In line with ANC electoral mandate prioritising:-

Radical economic transformation, rapid economic growth & job creation Rural development, land & agrarian reform & food security Ensuring access to adequate human settlements & quality basic services Improving quality of & expanding access to education & training Ensuring quality healthcare & social security for all Fighting corruption & crime Social cohesion & nation building

• Purportedly two overarching strategic themes: radical economic transformation & improving service delivery• To include focus on New Growth Path, National Infrastructure Plan, Industrial Policy Action Plan, Social Security &

Retirement Reform, National Health Insurance• Three priorities: decent work, education & capacity of the state• Target of building up to 5% growth by 2019 & capital formation 25% of GDP by 2019 (from 19% currently)• Retains objective of 5m new jobs from 2010-2020, but promises 6m job opportunities over next 5 years• “Target will require vigorous action to reduce concentration & diversify the economy, whilst ensuring adequate

infrastructure, skills & appropriate regulatory framework”• Detailed target improvement in each sphere of government

Contradictions in implementation of MTSF• Emphasis on critical role of private sector, but private sector not being embraced properly by govt in

practice• Emphasis on elimination of unnecessary regulatory burdens but these are being compounded in practice• Emphasis on small business development but stricter enforcement of BBBEE affects small business more

than big business• Calls for reduction in business concentration, but regulations driving greater concentration• Government to intervene in assisting in resolving workplace conflict resolution, but experience with

NUMSA strike leaves out small business• Introduction of minimum wage more damaging to small than big business• Enhanced youth employment through employment tax incentive being opposed by alliance partners• Emphasis on reducing corruption which is seen as impeding service delivery, but reluctance of

government to act against it• Emphasis on improved accountability & conviction rates & respect for independence of anti-corruption

agencies and the constitution, but Public Protector is being vilified from within government• Emphasis on need for stability in leadership, yet Cabinet reshuffle fairly dramatic• Encouragement of in-migration of skills to help education but access to work permits ever more difficult• Encouragement of tourism as jobs driver, but stricter visa regulations jeopardising tourism