Laclede County Economic Analysis and Baseline

2001-2011

Anna Kovalyova

Program Coordinator

University of Missouri, Columbia

This report describes a set of annual baseline forecasts on demographic, economic, and fiscal conditions through 2011 for Laclede County, Missouri.

Findings are based on a comprehensive statistical analysis of the most recent secondary data available, as well as important input provided by the Community Advisory Panel. 2001 serves as a base year for the forecasts, since the majority of available data is for 2001.

The actual data in the figures accompanying the report are separated from their forecasted counterparts by the dotted line.

Findings

Over the next ten years, Laclede County population is expected to increase from 32,868 to about 41,300 - an annual growth rate of 2.6 percent. This rate of growth is similar to the historical trends in the County.

For comparison, the average annual population growth rate for the State of Missouri between 1990 and 2000 was 1.01 percent.

Population and employment growth will lead to approximately 1,470 new students in Laclede County public schools over the next ten years.

Growth over the baseline period will also stimulate demand for approximately 3,380 additional housing units.

Manufacturing sector provides the largest number of jobs in the County, followed by non-farm proprietors, retail sales and service sectors. Nationally, employment is now growing the fastest in the services and retail trade sectors.

Findings

Per capita income in the County comprises approximately 72 percent of the State level. Real per capita income (expressed in 2001 Dollars) is projected to grow by 0.9 percent annually through 2011.

Total personal income is expected to grow from almost $670 million to $917 million (in 2001 Dollars) over the baseline period – a real growth rate of 3.7 percent per year.

Findings

Between the years 1990 and 2000, transfer payments to County’s retirees ranged from 49 to 40 percent of total transfer payments and around 8 percent of total personal income in the County.

Supplemental Security Income ranged between 37 and 29 percent of income maintenance benefit payments for the same years.

Total transfer payments comprised about 19 percent of the total personal income in the County for the years 1991 – 2000. This is somewhat higher than the corresponding 13 - 15 percent for the State of Missouri as a whole.

Findings

The unemployment rate in the County is volatile: it tends to be the highest in January and the lowest in October. In 2001, Laclede County annual unemployment rate was 6.5 percent, vs. 4.7 percent statewide.

According to CPAC projections, the number of unemployed in the County is expected to increase by a mere of 70 persons over the 10-year projection period, which amounts to the average annual growth rate of 0.6 percent.

Findings

Increased County income and employment will fuel the strong growth in taxable retail sales – from $301.6 million in 2001 to almost $427 million in 2011 (2001 Dollars).

As a percent of total county retail sales, Lebanon retail sales ranged from 88 percent in 1990 to 81 percent in 2001.

Findings

Over the baseline period, county revenues are projected to fall below the demand for county services by over a million dollars.

The rapid growth in demand for services (at a projected 4.8 percent per year) suggests that county government will be challenged in the future to deliver public services even more efficiently, and/or search for new sources of revenues.

Findings

The County relies heavily on sales tax revenues. Between 1996 and 2001, sales taxes as a percentage of total County revenues fluctuated anywhere between 47 and 51 percent.

Due to the volatility of retail sales, heavy reliance on sales taxes might represent a challenge for the local governments in balancing their budgets during economic downturns.

Findings

Figure 1. Population, 1990-2011 Laclede County and Lebanon City

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

Po

pul

atio

n

Laclede County City of Lebanon

Source: US Census Bureau, Time Series of Missouri Intercensal Population Estimates by County Analysis by CPAC

Socio-Demographic Characteristics

Figure 2. Persons 17 and Younger, 1990-2011 Laclede County

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year

Per

son

s

Source: US Census Bureau Analysis by CPAC

Figure 3. Persons 65 and Over, 1990-2011 Laclede County

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year

Per

son

s

Source: US Census Bureau Analysis by CPAC

Figure 4. Population, 2000 Lebanon City vs. Other Cities in the Region

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Lebanon Carthage Chillicothe Monett Rolla West Plains

Per

son

s

total population young (17 and under) "old" (65 and over)

Source: US Census Bureau Analysis by CPAC

Figure 5. Age Distribution, 2000 Laclede County vs. State

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Less than 5 5-17 18-24 25-34 35-54 55-64 65-84 85 and above Age

Laclede County Missouri

Source: Census 2000 Analysis by CPAC

Figure 6. Age Distribution, 1990, 2000 Laclede County

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Less than 5 5-17 18-24 25-34 35-54 55-64 65-84 85 and above

Age

1990 2000

Source: US Census Bureau Analysis by CPAC

Figure 8. School Enrollment, 1990-2011 Laclede County

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year

Stu

den

ts

Source: Missouri State Board of Education, DESE Analysis by CPAC

Figure 9. Public Enrollment by School District

Laclede County, 1990-2001

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year

Stu

den

ts

Laclede County R-I Gasconade C-4 Lebanon R-III Laclede County C-5

Source: Missouri State Board of Education, DESE Analysis by CPAC

Figure 10. Housing Demand, 2001-2011 Laclede County

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year

Nu

mb

er o

f H

ou

sin

g U

nit

s D

eman

ded

Analysis by CPAC

Figure 11. Civilian Labor Force, 1990-2011 Laclede County

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year

Lab

or

Fo

rce

Source: Missouri Department of Labor and Industrial Relations Analysis by CPAC

Labor Market Characteristics

Figure 12. Employment by Workplace, 1990-2011

Laclede County

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year

Nu

mb

er o

f Jo

bs

Source: Missouri Department of Labor and Industrial Relations and Bureau of Economic Analysis, REIS. Note: 1. Employment data reported by REIS includes both full- and part-time jobs. 2. Employment data reported by MO Dept of Ec. Development uses different methodology. In particular, their employment data equals to Labor Force - Unemployment (i.e., it already accounts for the net commuting). Analysis by CPAC

Figure 13. Employment by Workplace, 2000 Laclede vs. Adjacent Counties

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Laclede Camden Dallas Pulaski Texas Webster Wright

Nu

mb

er o

f Jo

bs

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis REIS Analysis by CPAC

Figure 14. Employment by residence, 1990 and 2000 Lebanon City vs. Other Cities in the Region

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Lebanon Carthage Chillicothe Monett Rolla West Plains

Em

plo

ymen

t b

y R

esid

ence

1990 2000

Source: US Bureau of Census Analysis by CPAC

Figure 16. Unemployment, 1990-2011

Laclede County

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year

Un

empl

oye

d P

erso

ns

Source: Missouri Department of Labor and Industrial Relations Analysis by CPAC

Figure 17. In-Commuters and Out-Commuters, 2000-2011 Laclede County

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

Nu

mb

er o

f C

omm

ute

rs

Incommuters Outcommuters

Source: US Census Bureau Analysis by CPAC

Figure 18. Real Per Capita Income, 1990-2011 Laclede County vs. Missouri (real 2001 dollars)

$-

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year

Rea

l Per

Cap

ita

Inco

me

Laclede County Missouri

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis REIS Analysis by CPAC

Economic Characteristics

Figure 19. Real Per Capita Income, 1990 and 2000. Lebanon vs. Other Cities in the Region (real 2000 dollars)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Lebanon Carthage Chillicothe Monett Rolla West Plains

Do

llars

1990 2000

Note: BEA's definition of personal income differs from that used by the Census Bureau. In general, the BEA's definition is much more inclusive of different kinds of income than the Bureau's. Source: US Census Bureau Analysis by CPAC

Figure 20. Total Personal Income, 1990-2011 Laclede County (2001 Dollars)

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year

To

tal P

erso

nal

Inco

me

($1,

000)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis REIS Analysis by CPAC

Figure 21. Transfer Payments, 1990-2000 Laclede County (2000 Dollars)

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Year

Th

ou

san

ds

of

Do

llars

Supplemental security income (SSI) payments

Ret. & Disab. Insurance Benefit Payments

Total Transfer Payments

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis REIS Analysis by CPAC

Figure 22. Assessed Property Values, 1990-2011 Laclede County (2001 Dollars)

$-

$50,000,000

$100,000,000

$150,000,000

$200,000,000

$250,000,000

$300,000,000

$350,000,000

$400,000,000

$450,000,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year

Ass

esse

d P

rop

erty

Val

ue

Laclede County Lebanon City

Source: MU Economic and Policy Analysis Research Center, Missouri State Tax Commission and Missouri State Auditor’s Office Note: Data for Property Values include real and personal property, and utilities. Analysis by CPAC

Figure 23. Taxable Retail Sales, 1990-2011 Laclede County (2001 Dollars)

$-

$50,000,000

$100,000,000

$150,000,000

$200,000,000

$250,000,000

$300,000,000

$350,000,000

$400,000,000

$450,000,000

$500,000,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year

Ret

ail S

ales

Laclede County Lebanon

Source: Missouri Department of Revenue Analysis by CPAC

Figure 24. Total Revenues and Expenditures, 1996-2011 Laclede County and Lebanon City (2001 Dollars)

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year

Do

llars

Laclede Revenues Laclede Expenditures Lebanon Revenues Lebanon Expenditures

Note: 1. Lebanon Revenues and Expenditures reflect General Fund only! 2. Total Revenues and Expenditures do not include operating transfers. Source: City Administrator Office, Lebanon and County Clerk's Office. Analysis by CPAC

Fiscal Characteristics

Figure 25. Revenues by Category, 1996-2011 Laclede County (2001 Dollars)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

Do

llars

Sales Tax Revenues Intergov. Revenues Other Revenues Property Tax Revenues

Note: Intergovernmental Revenues are transfers (including grants) from Federal and State government, and from other local goverments. "Other" Revenues, in this case, include charges for services, licenses and permits, fees, fines, interest and miscellaneous revenues. Source: County Clerk's Office Analysis by CPAC

Conclusions

Baseline projections will be as described above, if the current conditions in the County prevail.

Laclede County has experienced steady growth throughout the 1990s, even though it did feel the effects of the nation-wide recession in a number of variables in 2000.

That growth is expected to continue, bringing with it opportunities and challenges that must be addressed and that will affect the quality of life for all county residents.