lake winnipeg regulation · simulates loss of outflow performance due to ice and ... outflow (cms)...
TRANSCRIPT
Lake Winnipeg Regulation
Lake Winnipeg Regulation – Invited Technical Session
January 20, 2015
1
CEC Technical Workshop
January 20, 2015
Project and Operations – Kevin Gawne
2
Outline
• Manitoba Hydro System • LWR Physical Features and Licence Parameters • Energy Operations Planning • LWR Operations
3
MANITOBA HYDRO SYSTEM
4
Manitoba Hydro • Provincially owned, sole
supplier • Obligated to serve Manitoba
load • Regulated price in Manitoba • Connected to deregulated
markets • ~5,700MW capacity • Peak loads:
– Summer 3340 MW – Winter 4658 MW
• > 95% hydro
HVdcJenpeg
SelkirkBrandon
GrandRapids
Limestone
Long SpruceKettle
Laurie
River
Kelsey
LakeWinnipeg
Southern Indian Lake
Split L.
Stephens L.
St. Leon
Wuskwatim
St. Joseph
4
5
Alberta Manitoba
Saskatchewan
Minnesota
North Dakota Montana
South Dakota
Saskatchewan River Basin
Upper Churchill River Basin
Nelson River Local Basin
Red River Basin
Lower Churchill River Basin
Winnipeg River Basin
20 %
19 %
39 % 22 %
Drainage Basin
5
6
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Per
cent
of A
vera
ge
Fiscal Year Beginning
Dependable Flow
Average Flow
2014/15 (expected)
2015/16 (median)
Extreme Drought
1940
Record Flood2005
Flood of the Century - 1997
Water Supply is Highly Variable
Dependable Energy
Surplus Energy
6
7
Manitoba’s Generating System • Winnipeg River • Cedar Lake / Grand
Rapids • Lake Winnipeg Reg. • Churchill River Div. • Lower Nelson River • Other generation • >95% hydro
Jenpeg
Selkirk Brandon
Grand Rapids
Limestone
Long Spruce Kettle
Laurie River Kelsey
Pine Falls Great Falls McArthur Falls Seven Sisters Pointe du Bois Slave Falls
Lake Winnipeg
Southern Indian Lake
Split L.
Stephens L.
St. Leon
Wuskwatim
St. Joseph
7
8
MANITOBA System Schematic
8
9
Plan and build system for drought, usually have surplus:
9
10
Power demands • Manitoba • Exports Tie-lines • Export Sales • Import Purchases
Manitoba is Interconnected to Neighbouring Markets
10
11
Manitoba and Export Demand
11
12
LWR PHYSICAL FEATURES AND LICENCE PARAMETERS
13
LWR Key Physical Features
Two-Mile Channel
Eight-Mile Channel
Ominawin Bypass
14
LWR Key Physical Features
Jenpeg
Kiskitto Lake Inlet
Kiskitto Dam
15
Combined, these features provide: • ~ 50 % increase in outflow capacity • Control of Lake Winnipeg outflow
16
WPA Interim Licence Operating Parameters
Lake Winnipeg – 3 zones • 711 feet – 715 feet
Lake Winnipeg min outflow • 25,000 cfs
Jenpeg 24 hour rate of change • 15,000 cfs
Playgreen Lake & Kiskittogisu Lake levels
Kiskitto Lake – natural range
Flood Reduction
Low Level Support
Power Production
711
715
709
713
717
Win
d El
imin
ated
W
ater
Lev
el in
Fee
t
17
Lake Winnipeg
Levels on Lake Winnipeg: Before and With LWR
17
18
Limited Storage Capability in LW
• 4 foot range provides only limited ability to manage inflow variability
• Have to respond relatively quickly to changing inflows, particularly when inflows increase
• A delay in response would require larger flow changes to stay within the power production range
• LWR effectively transfers variability in inflows to downstream
19
Hypothetical Range Required to “Smooth-Out” All Inflow Variability
• To absorb all the inflow variability and achieve constant flows downstream, the active storage in the reservoir would have to be ~40-50 feet (or >10 times more than the power production range)
20
Limited Energy Storage
Flood Reduction
Low Level Support
Power Production
711
715
709
713
717
Win
d El
imin
ated
W
ater
Lev
el in
Fee
t
Energy storage capability is less than 25% of Manitoba Hydro’s average annual hydraulic generation
21
ENERGY OPERATIONS PLANNING
22
Operations Planning Objective
“Plan for the secure and economic operation of MH’s system of reservoirs and generating stations while considering the effects on stakeholders and the environment.”
23
System Operations: Balancing Supply and Demand
inflows storage imports
natural gas, coal emergency energy
SAFETY RELIABILITY
SOCIAL INTERESTS ENVIRONMENT
ECONOMICS
SUPPLY DEMAND
domestic load exports
DEMAND
24
Observations, update
forecasts
Assess conditions, adjust plan
Communicate operating
plan
Execute operating decisions
External input and feedback
Energy Operations Planning Cycle
24
25
Decision Support Systems
• Applied Operations Research
• Trade-off between efficiency, power market opportunity, store for future opportunity
• Adhere to physical, regulatory, environmental, social constraints
• Temper operations with consideration for stakeholders and environment based
Locational Market Prices ($/MWh)
26
Hydraulic Network
26
27
Maximize net revenue subject to: • Energy Balance
– Domestic load – Contractual load
• System Capability – generating stations – reservoirs – transmission system
• Legal and Licence – water levels and flows
• Fuel supply – water – coal, natural gas
• Market Limits
28
LWR OPERATIONS
29
Typical LWR Operations by Season: Jenpeg Total Flow
Flow
in c
ubic
-feet
-per
-sec
ond
1977-2013 Avg. 1977-2013 2013 2014
WINTER WINTER SPRING SUMMER FALL
29
30
• Not one number, rather varies according to conditions
• When no ice cover, maximum discharge usually means major spill and high water levels downstream
• Lowering the Jenpeg forebay to a minimum water level
• After freeze-up, outflow is limited by ice constrictions rather than Jenpeg
• Max discharge for flood control on LW (and or winter generation)
Maximum Discharge
31
“Maximum Discharge” Depends on Conditions Je
npeg
flow
in c
ubic
-feet
-per
-sec
ond
1977-2013 Avg. 1977-2013 2013 2014
Max Discharge for Winter Generation (& Flood Control)
Max Discharge for LW Flood Control
31
32
HISTORIC OPERATIONS PLANNING DECISIONS
33
Historic Operations (CRD)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
256.000
256.500
257.000
257.500
258.000
258.500
1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006
Measured Water Level Measured Total Outflow Measured Notigi Outflow
South Indian Lake Water Levels and Outflows
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel (
m) Total O
utflow(cm
s)
847.5 Feet
843 Feet
34
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
18000
19000
20000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006
Measured Water Level Measured Total Outflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total Outflows711 to 715 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
715 Feet
711 Feet
Historic Operations (LWR)
35
Historic Operations (Lower Nelson R.)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
137.000
137.500
138.000
138.500
139.000
139.500
140.000
140.500
141.000
141.500
1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006
Measured Water Level Measured Total Outflow Measured Powerhouse Outflow
Kettle GS Water Levels and Outflows
Wat
er Le
vel (
m)
Outflow
(cms)
36
Fall Levels on Lake Winnipeg
• Concern about high levels, particularly during the fall months when damaging wind storms are more common
• Generally: – In wet years, fall levels lower with LWR – In dry years, fall levels higher with LWR (ref. Appendix 4)
37
• ‘Flattens’ load over the year • Surplus water can be used to
export instead of stored/spilled • Winter import capability
reduces dependency on Lake Winnipeg storage for MB Load
• Winter off-peak imports = ~3/4 ft on LW
Balancing Effect of Being Tied to Neighbouring Markets
37
38 38
39
LWCNRSB (1971-75) - didn’t account for major export/import capability - prediction vs. what has happened
Predicted: ~1.2 ft higher in fall Actual: only ~0.2 ft higher in fall (despite post-LWR hydrology being wetter)
40
Thank You!
Lake Winnipeg
––
––
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Computation of Unregulated Water Levels / Flows
6
Lake Winnipeg
Inflows Outflow
Change in Water Level
If Inflow > Outflow … Water level rises If Inflow = Outflow … Water level does not change If Inflow < Outflow … Water level drops
On an unregulated lake, outflow is a function of water level. Lake Outflow
Water Level
Ü
Lake Manitoba
05RF001
05RD005
05SB006
05SA003
Montreal Point
George Island
05SG001
05RE003
Mission Point
Berens River
Gimli
Victoria Beach
05SD001
Pine Dock05SD002
Matheson Island Landing
25 0 2512.5 km
•
•
•
•
•
Data Sources
All data sources used are publically available: • Water Survey of Canada
– Water Level Measurements – Streamflow Measurements
• Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration
– Watershed Boundaries
• Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada – Lake Winnipeg Volume/Area
• Manitoba Hydro – Water Level Measurements
8
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•••
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–
•
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•
•
•
•
•
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•
•
LAKE WINNIPEG REGULATION ALTERNATIVE POWER RANGE
J. Crawford – Water Resources Engineering
Outline
Model Development Calibration Results Sensitivity Analysis LWR with a 711 to 715 Power Range 711 to 714 Results 711 to 716 Results
2
Model Development 3
Model Development
Objective: Develop “Lake Winnipeg Re-Regulation” model capable of
simulating Lake Winnipeg and the Nelson River with different water power ranges between “711 to 714” and “711 to 716”.
Criteria Simulated daily water levels and river flows from 1977 to 2013 Manual Re-regulation of outflows Adheres to the other Water Power License Constraints for LWR. Considers outflow limits on East and West Channels. Up and downstream regulation unchanged Lower Nelson Analysis as well.
4
Model Schematic
Odei River * 1..63 Grass River * 1.00 Kettle River * 0.84 Burntwood River * 1.0
Split Lake
Kelsey Forebay
Kelsey
Sipiwesk Lake Outlet
Sipiwesk Lake
Cross Lake Outlet
Cross Lake
Jenpeg Nelson West Channel
Nelson East Channel
Gunisao River * 2.47
Grass River * 0.29
Grass River * 0.35
BW
Lake Winnipeg
Total Lake Winnipeg Inflow
Split Lake Outlet
5
Model Schematic
Lake Winnipeg Regulation Model
Nelson River Simulation
Odei River * 1..63 Grass River * 1.00 Kettle River * 0.84 Burntwood River * 1.0
Split Lake
Kelsey Forebay
Kelsey
Sipiwesk Lake Outlet
Sipiwesk Lake
Cross Lake Outlet
Cross Lake
Jenpeg Nelson West Channel
Nelson East Channel
Gunisao River * 2.47
Grass River * 0.29
Grass River * 0.35
BW
Lake Winnipeg
Total Lake Winnipeg Inflow
Split Lake Outlet
6
Lake Winnipeg Regulation Model
Jenpeg
Nelson West Channel
Lake Winnipeg
Lake Winnipeg Inflow RTD
7
Lake Winnipeg Outlet Rating Curves
Developed based on Observed Lake Winnipeg Smoothed Water Level (LWD) and Jenpeg and East Channel Outflows
Fitted to data on a month-by-month basis Curves assumed to occur on the 15th of every month “Weighted Averaging” of curves used to interpolate
between curves (mid month to mid month) Simulates loss of outflow performance due to ice and
vegetation growth Creates “365” unique curves per year
8
L Wpg West Channel – January (example)
215
215.5
216
216.5
217
217.5
218
218.5
219
219.5
220
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
Lak
e Win
nipe
g W
ater
Lev
el (m
)
Outflow (cms)
All Months January Fitted Curve
Lake Winnipeg West Channel Maximum Outflow
9
L Wpg East Channel – January (Example)
215
215.5
216
216.5
217
217.5
218
218.5
219
219.5
220
0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.00 900.00 1000.00
Lak
e Win
nipe
g W
ater
Lev
el (m
)
Outflow (cms)
All Months January Fitted Curve
Lake Winnipeg East Channel Outflow Rating Curve
10
711 to 715 Power Range
Lake Winnipeg Calibration 11
Lake Winnipeg Calibration
NS Coeff: 0.896 MAE: 161cms R2: 0.896 %dv: 0.2%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow Simulated Total Outflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsCalibration
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)Total O
utflow(cm
s)
715 Feet
714 Feet
711 Feet
12
Sensitivity to Initial Water Level Starting Water Level (218.6 m ASL)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow Simulated Total Outflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSensitivity
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)Total O
utflow(cm
s)
715 Feet
714 Feet
711 Feet
Simulated Starting Water Level 218.6 M
Maximum Outflow
13
Nelson River Routing Model 14
Nelson Routing Model Engine
Odei River * 1..63 Grass River * 1.00 Kettle River * 0.84 Burntwood River * 1.0
Split Lake
Kelsey Forebay
Kelsey
Sipiwesk Lake Outlet
Sipiwesk Lake
Cross Lake Outlet
Cross Lake
Jenpeg Nelson West Channel
Nelson East Channel
Gunisao River * 2.47
Grass River * 0.29
Grass River * 0.35
BW
Lake Winnipeg
Total Lake Winnipeg Inflow
Split Lake Outlet
15
Nelson Routing Model Engine
Formula: Storage(l,t+1) = Storage(l,t ) + Inflow(l, t) – Outflow(l,t)
Where: Storage(l,t+1) is the storage for the next day in cms-days for the
Storage(l,t) is the storage at the beginning of the current day
Inflow(l,t) is the total inflow into the lake during the day
Outflow(l,t) is the total outflow from the lake during the day
16
Routing Model Engine
Formula: Storage(l,t+1) = Storage(l,t ) + Inflow(l, t) – Outflow(l,t)
Where: Storage(l,t+1) is the storage for the next day in cms-days for the
Storage(l,t) is the storage at the beginning of the current day
Inflow(l,t) is the total inflow into the lake during the day
Outflow(l,t) is the total outflow from the lake during the day
Inflowt
Storaget
Outflowt
Storaget+1
Outflowt is a function of the average water level
Storage t+1 is a function of Storage, Inflow and outflow
17
Routing Model Engine
Simplifying Assumption Storage(l,t+1) = Storage(l,t ) + Inflow(l, t) – Outflow(l,t)
Assume Outflow(l,t) is a function of Storage(l,t) at the start of the day
One equation for one unknown therefore solvable for Storage t+1
Assumption produces low error because of the daily time step that is self correcting.
Inflowt
Storaget
Outflowt
Storaget+1 Solve for one unknown
18
Split Lake – OW rating Curve 19
Split Lake Simulated Results 711 to 715
165.00
166.00
167.00
168.00
169.00
170.00
171.00
1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013
Wat
er L
evel
(m)
Split Lake Water LevelsSimulated 711 to 715 Hydro Power Range
SPLT_SPLT.HG.DCP_BE.D1.R Simulated
Statistics:R-Squared =Mean Error = (m) Mean ABS Error = (m)
1.000.00
0.01
20
• The current LWR power range is from 711 to 715 feet. When Lake Winnipeg wind eliminated water levels are within this range outflows are set primarily to maximize power production benefits.
• When water level rise above 715 feet outflows are increased to maximum to mitigate flooding around Lake Winnipeg.
• When water levels drop below 711 feet outflows are set as ordered by the Minister responsible for the Water Power Act to provide drought support.
Lake Winnipeg Regulation (711 to 715) 21
• Power Range Drops by a foot... • Maximum Outflow required Above 714 feet
711 to 714 LWR 22
711 to 714 Results for 1977 to 2013 Lake Winnipeg Water Level and Outflow
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/
1977
1/1/
1978
1/1/
1979
1/1/
1980
1/1/
1981
1/1/
1982
1/1/
1983
1/1/
1984
1/1/
1985
1/1/
1986
1/1/
1987
1/1/
1988
1/1/
1989
1/1/
1990
1/1/
1991
1/1/
1992
1/1/
1993
1/1/
1994
1/1/
1995
1/1/
1996
1/1/
1997
1/1/
1998
1/1/
1999
1/1/
2000
1/1/
2001
1/1/
2002
1/1/
2003
1/1/
2004
1/1/
2005
1/1/
2006
1/1/
2007
1/1/
2008
1/1/
2009
1/1/
2010
1/1/
2011
1/1/
2012
1/1/
2013
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow Simulated Total Outflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)Total O
utflow(cm
s)
23
Results Measured vs. 711 to 714 Power Range
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow Simulated Total Outflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
715 Feet
714 Feet
711 Feet
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels
24
Results Measured vs. 711 to 714 Power Range
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow Simulated Total Outflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
715 Feet
714 Feet
711 Feet
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels
Lake Winnipeg Outflow
25
Results Measured vs. 711 to 714 Power Range
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow Simulated Total Outflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
715 Feet
714 Feet
711 Feet
Lake Winnipeg Approaching 714
26
Results Measured vs. 711 to 714 Power Range
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow Simulated Total Outflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
715 Feet
714 Feet
711 Feet
Lake Winnipeg Approaching 714
Increase Outflows
27
Results Measured vs. 711 to 714 Power Range
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow Simulated Total Outflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
715 Feet
714 Feet
711 Feet
Lake Winnipeg Approaching 714
Increase Outflows
Lake Winnipeg Miscellaneously 713.75
28
Results Measured vs. 711 to 714 Power Range
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow Simulated Total Outflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
715 Feet
714 Feet
711 Feet
Lake Winnipeg Approaching 714
Increase Outflows
Lake Winnipeg Miscellaneously 713.75
Reduced Winter Outflow
29
Results Measured vs. 711 to 714 Power Range
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow Simulated Total Outflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
715 Feet
714 Feet
711 Feet
Lake Winnipeg Approaching 714
30
Results Measured vs. 711 to 714 Power Range
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow Simulated Total Outflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
715 Feet
714 Feet
711 Feet
Lake Winnipeg Approaching 714
Increase Outflows to Max
31
Results Measured vs. 711 to 714 Power Range
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow Simulated Total Outflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
715 Feet
714 Feet
711 Feet
Lake Winnipeg Approaching 714
Increase Outflows to Max
Increased Flood Duration
32
Results Measured vs. 711 to 714 Power Range
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow Simulated Total Outflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
715 Feet
714 Feet
711 FeetIncrease Outflow to Max
Lake Winnipeg Approaching 714
Reduced Winter Outflow
Increased Flood Duration
33
Results Measured vs. 711 to 714 Power Range
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1982 1/1/1983 1/1/1984 1/1/1985 1/1/1986
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow Simulated Total Outflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
715 Feet
714 Feet
711 Feet
34
Results Measured vs. 711 to 714 Power Range
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1987 1/1/1988 1/1/1989 1/1/1990 1/1/1991
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow Simulated Total Outflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
715 Feet
714 Feet
711 Feet
35
Results Measured vs. 711 to 714 Power Range
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow Simulated Total Outflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
715 Feet
714 Feet
711 Feet
36
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level
Lake Winnipeg Water Simulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
715 Feet
714 Feet
711 Feet
711 to 714 Results for 2000 to 2013 Lake Winnipeg Elevation
Lower Lake Winnipeg Water Levels (Avg -0.4 feet)
37
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level
Lake Winnipeg Water Simulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
715 Feet
714 Feet
711 Feet
711 to 714 Results for 2000 to 2013 Lake Winnipeg Elevation
Similar Severe Flood Water Levels (Avg -0.2 feet)
38
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level
Lake Winnipeg Water Simulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
715 Feet
714 Feet
711 Feet
711 to 714 Results for 2000 to 2013 Lake Winnipeg Elevation
Similar Severe Drought Water Levels (-0.2 feet)
39
711 to 714 Results for 2000 to 2013 Lake Winnipeg Outflow
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013
Flow
(cm
s)Total Lake Winnipeg Outflow
Simulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range
Simulated 714 Measured
Increased Flood Frequency
Flow Spikes
40
711 to 714 Results for 2000 to 2013 Lake Winnipeg Outflow
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013
Flow
(cm
s)Total Lake Winnipeg Outflow
Simulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range
Simulated 714 Measured
Increased Flood Duration
41
206.00
206.50
207.00
207.50
208.00
208.50
209.00
209.50
1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013
Wat
er L
evel
Cross Lake Water LevelsSimulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range
CRSS_CRSS.HG.DCP_BE.D1.R (05UD001) Simulated
711 to 714 Results for 2000 to 2013 Cross Lake, Sipiwesk Lake, Split Lake
Similar Severe Flood Water Levels
42
711 to 714 Results for 1977 to 2013 Lake Winnipeg Outflow
9
28
LWR 711 to 715
Years with maximum discharge at Jenpeg (1977 to 2013)
Years without maximum discharge at Jenpeg (1977 to 2013)
24
13
LWR 711 to 714
43
• Power Range Goes up by a foot... • Maximum Outflow required Above 716 feet • Target Lower Nelson flow of 4500 cms
711 to 716 LWR 44
711 to 716 Model Results 45
1977 to 2013 Results – 711 to 716 Lake Winnipeg
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/
1977
1/1/
1978
1/1/
1979
1/1/
1980
1/1/
1981
1/1/
1982
1/1/
1983
1/1/
1984
1/1/
1985
1/1/
1986
1/1/
1987
1/1/
1988
1/1/
1989
1/1/
1990
1/1/
1991
1/1/
1992
1/1/
1993
1/1/
1994
1/1/
1995
1/1/
1996
1/1/
1997
1/1/
1998
1/1/
1999
1/1/
2000
1/1/
2001
1/1/
2002
1/1/
2003
1/1/
2004
1/1/
2005
1/1/
2006
1/1/
2007
1/1/
2008
1/1/
2009
1/1/
2010
1/1/
2011
1/1/
2012
1/1/
2013
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow Simulated Total Outflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 716 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
46
Results Measured vs. 711 to 716 Power Range
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow
Simulated Total Outflow Measured Kettle Inflow RTU Simulated Kettle Inflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 716 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
715 Feet
716 Feet
711 Feet 155 kcfs
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels
47
Results Measured vs. 711 to 716 Power Range
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow
Simulated Total Outflow Measured Kettle Inflow RTU Simulated Kettle Inflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 716 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
715 Feet
716 Feet
711 Feet 155 kcfs
Kettle Inflow
48
Results Measured vs. 711 to 716 Power Range
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow
Simulated Total Outflow Measured Kettle Inflow RTU Simulated Kettle Inflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 716 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
715 Feet
716 Feet
711 Feet 155 kcfs
Lake Winnipeg Outflow
49
Results Measured vs. 711 to 716 Power Range
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow
Simulated Total Outflow Measured Kettle Inflow RTU Simulated Kettle Inflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 716 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
715 Feet
716 Feet
711 Feet 155 kcfs
Lake Winnipeg passes 715
50
Results Measured vs. 711 to 716 Power Range
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow
Simulated Total Outflow Measured Kettle Inflow RTU Simulated Kettle Inflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 716 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
715 Feet
716 Feet
711 Feet 155 kcfs
Lake Winnipeg passes 715
Increased Outflow still Necessary
51
Results Measured vs. 711 to 716 Power Range
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow
Simulated Total Outflow Measured Kettle Inflow RTU Simulated Kettle Inflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 716 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
715 Feet
716 Feet
711 Feet 155 kcfs
Lake Winnipeg passes 715
Increased Outflow still Necessary
Skirt 715.75 Feet
52
Results Measured vs. 711 to 716 Power Range
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow
Simulated Total Outflow Measured Kettle Inflow RTU Simulated Kettle Inflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 716 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
715 Feet
716 Feet
711 Feet 155 kcfs
Lake Winnipeg passes 715
Increased Outflow still Necessary
Skirt 715.75 Feet
Lower Nelson Spill Still Occurs
53
Results Measured vs. 711 to 716 Power Range
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow
Simulated Total Outflow Measured Kettle Inflow RTU Simulated Kettle Inflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 716 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
715 Feet
716 Feet
711 Feet 155 kcfs
Lake Winnipeg passes 715
Increased Outflow still Necessary
Skirt 715.75 Feet
Higher East Channel Flow
54
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1982 1/1/1983 1/1/1984 1/1/1985 1/1/1986
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow
Simulated Total Outflow Measured Kettle Inflow RTU Simulated Kettle Inflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 716 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
716 Feet
715 Feet
711 Feet 155 kcfs
Results Measured vs. 711 to 716 Power Range
Lake Winnipeg passes 715
55
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1982 1/1/1983 1/1/1984 1/1/1985 1/1/1986
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow
Simulated Total Outflow Measured Kettle Inflow RTU Simulated Kettle Inflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 716 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
716 Feet
715 Feet
711 Feet 155 kcfs
Results Measured vs. 711 to 716 Power Range
Lake Winnipeg passes 715
Maximum Outflow not Necessary
56
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
1/1/1982 1/1/1983 1/1/1984 1/1/1985 1/1/1986
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow
Simulated Total Outflow Measured Kettle Inflow RTU Simulated Kettle Inflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 716 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
716 Feet
715 Feet
711 Feet 155 kcfs
Results Measured vs. 711 to 716 Power Range
Lake Winnipeg passes 715
Maximum Outflow not Necessary
Kettle Inflow around155 kcfs
57
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow Simulated Total Outflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 716 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
716 Feet
715 Feet
711 Feet 155 kcfs
2000 to 2013 Results 711 to 716 Lake Winnipeg
Higher Water Levels on Lake Winnipeg (Avg +0.3 feet)
58
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow Simulated Total Outflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 716 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
716 Feet
715 Feet
711 Feet 155 kcfs
2000 to 2013 Results 711 to 716 Lake Winnipeg
Similar Severe Flood Peaks (2005 and 2011)
59
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
215.000
215.500
216.000
216.500
217.000
217.500
218.000
218.500
219.000
Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow Simulated Total Outflow
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 716 Hydro Power Range
Smoo
thed
Wat
er Le
vel L
WD
(m)
Total Outflow
(cms)
716 Feet
715 Feet
711 Feet 155 kcfs
2000 to 2013 Results 711 to 716 Lake Winnipeg
Reduced Flood Peaks Downstream
60
206.00
206.50
207.00
207.50
208.00
208.50
209.00
209.50
1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013
Wat
er L
evel
Cross Lake Water LevelsSimulated 711 to 716 Hydro Power Range
Simulated CRSS_CRSS.HG.DCP_BE.D1.R (05UD001)
711 to 716 Results for 2000 to 2013 Cross Lake, Sipiwesk Lake, Split Lake
Reduced Flood Frequency
61
206.00
206.50
207.00
207.50
208.00
208.50
209.00
209.50
1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013
Wat
er L
evel
Cross Lake Water LevelsSimulated 711 to 716 Hydro Power Range
Simulated CRSS_CRSS.HG.DCP_BE.D1.R (05UD001)
711 to 716 Results for 2000 to 2013 Cross Lake, Sipiwesk Lake, Split Lake
Similar Severe Flood Water Levels
62
9
28
LWR 711 to 715
Years with maximum discharge at Jenpeg (1977 to 2013)
Years without maximum discharge at Jenpeg (1977 to 2013)
4
33
LWR 711 to 716
63
Thank You
64