Demographic change in Lambeth

- The theory is that austerity, the welfare reform and the development in the London housing market are pushing poorer people out of Lambeth.

- Gentrification observable in places like Brixton (new shops and restaurants, egin Brixton Market, threat of eviction of old shops in railway arches, etc)

- Socio-economic conditions, specifically housing (conditions, cost), can contribute to this change

- However, current available data does not show an accelerated population turnover in the borough.

- This does not mean that it isn’t happening, but that it may happen at a slower pace than anticipated OR that we simply do not have the data to show it.

Population turnover in Lambeth has remained steady over the past few years, with nearly equal numbers

coming and going.

-12%

-12%

-12%

-12%

-12%

-13%

-13%

-13%

-13%

-13%

11%

12%

12%

13%

12%

13%

13%

14%

14%

13%

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

2003/4

2004/5

2005/6

2006/7

2007/8

2008/9

2009/10

20010/11

2011/12

2012/13

Inflow and Outflow, total migration as percentage of population, Lambeth 2003/04-2012/13

Lambeth inflow

Lambeth Outflow

Source: ONS Local Area Migration Indicators

But – has who is coming and going changed?

Generally, national migration into Lambeth is three to four times higher than international migration. However, more international migrants arrive in Lambeth than leave, and more British nationals leave than arrive.

-2.50%

-2.00%

-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Net migration as % of total population

Lambeth International

Lambeth national

This data shows long-term migration patterns, defined as people arriving or leaving the UK for longer than 12 months. Net change shows the difference between the number of international migrants arriving and leaving Lambeth and the difference between the number of national migrants arriving and leaving Lambeth. Source: ONS Local Area Migration

Indicators

Internal migration has remained largely steady over the past 10 years, whereas international migration has seen a slight decline.

0

50

100

150

200

250

2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 20010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Internal migration: population turnover (rate per 100,000 , 2003/4-2012/13 mid year estimates)

Lambeth

London

Source: ONS Local Area Migration Indicators

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

50.00

2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 20010/11 2011/12 2012/13

International migration: population turnover (rate per 100,000, mid-year estimates, 2003/4-2012/13

Lambeth

London

England

Source: DWP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

NiNo registration by broad world region, Lambeth

EU

Europe other

Middle and Central Asia

East Asia

South Asia

South East Asia

Subsaharan Africa

North Africa

North America

Central and Southern America

Oceania

Other / unknown

Note: Oceania is almost exclusively migrants from Australia and New Zealand

New international migrants of working age are generally arriving to Lambeth from the EU. This trend has accelerated in recent years with changes to the

immigration system.

Source: DWP

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

NiNo registrations by top 10 EU countries

Netherlands

Germany

Bulgaria

Ireland

France

Romania

Poland

Portugal

Italy

Spain

Italy

Portugal

Poland

France

Romania

Spain

Within the EU, migrants come mostly from Spain, Italy, Portugal and Poland, with an increase in arrivals from Romania in the past 2 years.

Internal migration: Where do people come from, and where do they move

to?

Insert: shape of Lambeth with arrow out and arrow in

Data is derived from the NHS patient and the NHS Central register, as well as the higher education statistics agency. This means that the data includes the student population

This is a stable pattern over the years: the age composition of those coming and going has changed little between 2002 and 2011, with more 20-34 year

olds coming than going.

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

0-14

15-19

20-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65-74

75+

Compared to 2004, the population has remained relatively stable. There is now a slightly higher proportion of 25-29 year olds, and of middle- people between 45 and 54. Conversely, there are fewer 15-19 year olds and 35-39 year olds.

ONS Mid year population estimates

-0.2

-0.7

-1.1

-0.3

1.7

0.2

-1.4

-0.5

1.2

1.2

0.5

0.1

-0.3

-0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

0-4 years

5-14 years

Aged 15 - 19 years

Aged 20 - 24 years

Aged 25 - 29 years

Aged 30 - 34 years

Aged 35 - 39 years

Aged 40 - 44 years

Aged 45 - 49 years

Aged 50 - 54 years

Aged 55 - 59 years

Aged 60 - 64 years

Aged 65 - 69 years

Aged 70 - 74 years

Aged 75 - 79 years

Aged 80 - 84 years

Aged 85 and over

Lambeth population change in percentage points 2004-2013

Age group 0-4 years5-14 years

15 - 19 years

20 - 24 years

25 - 29 years

30 - 34 years

35 - 39 years

40 - 44 years

45 - 49 years

50 - 54 years

55 - 59 years

60 - 64 years

65 - 69 years

70 - 74 years

75 - 79 years

80 - 84 years

85 and over

Difference

2004/13 in

numbers

2100 2300 -1200 2000 10900 5600 -200 1600 6100 5500 3000 1600 200 0 0 0 500

Age pyramid of the borough

Ethnicity

Comparing the 2001 and 2011 census shows that the white population has decreased by 5.3% and other population groups, particularly mixed race, have increased accordingly.

-5.3

2.3

2.8

0.1

-0.1

-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

White

Asian/Asian British

Mixed ethnicity

Black/Black British

Other

% Change of ethnicity in Lambeth's population, 2001-2011, ONS data

62.4

57.1

4.6

6.9

4.8

7.6

25.8

25.9

2.5

2.4

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2001

2011

Change in ethnicity in Lambeth's population, 2001-2011, %, ONS data

White

Asian/Asian British

Mixed ethnicity

Black/Black British

Other

ONS Census data

The change between 2001 and 2015 has been gradual, with the increase of the ‘black other’ population suggesting that ethnic groups are mixing. Compared to London, the

share of the white population is declining more slowly, while the ‘black other’ category has increased nearly twice as much.

GLA Ethnicity projections

-0.14

-0.05

-3.18

5.25

0.34

-0.44

2.85

2.04

0.01

-6.68

0.69

2.17

-0.76

2.68

0.52

0.67

3.06

4.35

0.92

-14.31

-2000% -1500% -1000% -500% 0% 500% 1000%

Bangladeshi

Black African

Black Caribbean

Black Other

Chinese

Indian

Other

Other Asian

Pakistani

White

Change in Ethnicity, percentage points, Lambeth and Greater London, GLA projections, 2001-2015

Greater London Lambeth

Looking 10 years ahead, this trend is set to continue: the white population is increasing much more slowly than the population with backgrounds other

than white. The split will be nearly half-half.

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

White Non-white & other

% change from 2015base year

3%

23%

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Asian Black African Black Caribbean Black Other Other

5%

22%

29%

8%

13%

% change from 2015base year

Non-white population in detail

GLA Ethnicity projections

Deprivation – the IMD 2015: Lambeth is the 22rd most deprived borough in England, and the 8th most deprived in London. It remains among the poorest

boroughs in the country.

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

IMD, Average Rank

Leve

ls o

f d

epri

vati

on

Number of boroughs less deprived than Lambeth (rank 22)

Housing: between 1991 and 2011, the proportion of people renting privately in Lambeth has increased two thirds (17 % to 29%), largely driven by a drop in households renting from a social landlord. This

differs from London, where the shift is split between a drop in ownership and a drop in social renting.

Source: ONS Neighbourhood statistics (2001,2011) and Census 1991 from Nomisweb, modified

36%37%

35%

47%

41%

35%

17%

20%

29%

1% 1%

57% 57%

50%

29%

26%24%

14%15%

25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1991 2001 2011

Owned Lambeth

Social rented Lambeth

Private rented Lambeth

Living rent free Lambeth

Owned London

Social rented London

Private rented London

Living rent free London

NB: living rent free not available for 1991

Qualifications and socio-economic classifcation

• Lambeth’s adult population is highly qualified, and its share of people with NVQ4+ could indicate demographic change.

• There has been an increase in certain professions accompanied by a decrease in lower qualified professions. This may be a result of the retirement of people working in positions that are not typically located in inner-London boroughs anymore, or due to an upskilling of the population.

Qualification: The proportion of people with NVQ4 or higher has risen faster than in London and England, and is also higher.

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Jan 2004-Dec 2004

Jan 2005-Dec 2005

Jan 2006-Dec 2006

Jan 2007-Dec 2007

Jan 2008-Dec 2008

Jan 2009-Dec 2009

Jan 2010-Dec 2010

Jan 2011-Dec 2011

Jan 2012-Dec 2012

Jan 2013-Dec 2013

Jan 2014-Dec 2014

Lambeth

London

England

Source: APS

Socio-economic qualifications fluctuate across the years, but between 2004 and 2014, there has been a 10 percent point increase (nearly 60% from 17.1 to 27.1%) in associated professional and technical occupations (Class 3), way outstripping London and

national trends. Skilled trade occupations (class 5), process, plant and machine operator jobs (class 8) and elementary occupations have all declined (9), as have class 1 (managers, directors and senior officials

-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Class 1

Class 2

Class 3

Class 4

Class 5

Class 6

Class 7

Class 8

Class 9

England

London

Lambeth

School Census: EthnicityIn primary schools, until 2011, the proportion of white and black pupils declined, with a slight increase in the mixed population

group. Since 2013, there is a slight increase in white primary school pupils, with a concurrent drop in the black student population.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Pupils’ ethnicity, % primary schools, Lambeth

Proportions have remained more stable in secondary schools. There is also a minor increase in the ‘mixed’ population, with a concurrent decline in the black and white populations.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Pupils’ ethnicity, % secondary school, Lambeth

White Mixed Asian Black Chinese Any Other Ethnic Group

note: missing % are 'unclassified‘; Chinese secondary pupils n/a in 2005

45 47 47 47 47 48 49 48 49 50 50

55 52 53 53 53 52 51 51 51 50 50

0

20

40

60

80

100

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

First language, primary school, Lambeth

First language other than English, % First language English, %

38 39 39 43 42 40 38 39 40 41 43

62 61 61 57 58 60 62 61 60 59 57

0

20

40

60

80

100

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

First Language, secondary school, Lambeth

First language other than English, % First language English, %

School census: languageIn primary school, pupils are nearly evenly split between those who have English as a first language and

those who do not.

In secondary school, there are more students with English a first language, although proportions fluctuate slightly.

Note that these data rely on reporting from teachers who may mistake a fluent English speaker as a native speaker

Missing %: unknown/not recorded

Free school meals in primary schools: There has been a decline since 2004 by 7 percentage points. The tightening of eligibility criteria may be a reason for this, but it

needs to be investigated further.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Note: before 2011, only the number of pupils known to be eligible for free school meals was recorded rather than those who also claimed it.

Free school meals in secondary schools: the proportion of pupils eligible for and claiming free school meals in Lambeth is declining. This may be due to population churn or changing eligibility

criteria.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Note: before 2011, only the number of pupils known to be eligible for free school meals was recorded rather than those who also claimed it.