land market report | 2014 charleston commercial market forecast

www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com

Commercial Real Estate Market Forecast

October 8, 2014 | Daniel Island Club


INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS

LANDREPORT


Residential Land

Kevin WadleyVice President of Land AcquisitionAshton Woods

[email protected] www.ashtonwoodshomes.com

843.514.0561

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.ashtonwoodshomes.com/


Charleston is Winning!

#1 Top City in the U.S. and Canada Travel + Leisure 2014 World’s Best Awards

#1 Friendliest City in the United States Condé Nast Traveler 2014 Readers Choice Awards

#2 Top City in the World Travel + Leisure 2014 World’s Best Awards

America’s Most Attractive People Travel + Leisure Magazine

Source: Google


Population

Source: Census, TAMU

+11% IN LAST 5 YEARS


Annual Permits ( Single Family)

Source: Real Estate Information Service

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

PERMITS CONTINUE TO EXCEED CLOSINGS


Annual New Home Closings

Source: Real Estate Information Service2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000 2014 LEVELS +50% 0VER 2011


New Home Closings by Quarter

Q1 2011

Q2 2011

Q3 2011

Q4 2011

Q1 2012

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

Q2 2013

Q3 2013

Q4 2013

Q1 2014

Q2 2014

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

New Home Closings by Quarter+800 UNITS IN Q3 2014


Homes Sales in the Tri-County

Source: CTARMLS

No. of Sales Ave. Sold Price Ave. Sold Price/SF

Jan-Aug 2013

Total 8725 $284,755 $133.65

New 1736 $288,679 $122.76

Resales 6989 $283,707 $136.36

Jan-Aug 2014

Total 9237 $301,935 $159.56

New 1872 $309,727 $221.59

Resales 7365 $299,784 $143.74

YOY Change in Total 5.9% 6.0% 19.4%


Header


Single Family98%

Multi-Family2%

New Home Construction Type

• Charleston is primarily a single family market


Months’ Supply


Feb-

11

Apr-1

1

Jun-

11

Aug-1

1

Oct-1

1

Dec-1

1

Feb-

12

Apr-1

2

Jun-

12

Aug-1

2

Oct-1

2

Dec-1

2

Feb-

13

Apr-1

3

Jun-

13

Aug-1

3

Oct-1

3

Dec-1

3

Feb-

140

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

Months Supply


Submarkets


Top Performing Communities


Rank Subdivision Market Area ClosingsAverage

Price1 CANE BAY PLTN CARNES/CANE BAY 178 250,6932 CAROLINA BAY WEST ASHLEY 99 288,8443 CAROLINA PARK MT PLEASANT 51 496,7914 SOPHIA LANDING GOOSE CREEK 35 209,1465 DANIEL ISLAND DANIEL ISLAND 33 687,5456 THE PONDS KNIGHTSVILLE 33 338,7087 TANNER PLTN HANAHAN 32 328,2948 OAK TERRACE PRESERVE NORTH CHARLESTON 29 210,6199 SPRING GROVE PLTN GOOSE CREEK 27 190,340

10 BAKER PLTN LADSON/LINCOLNVILLE 25 183,52811 FOXBANK PLTN CARNES/CANE BAY 25 241,09112 DUNES WEST DUNES WEST 24 396,26813 LAKES OF SUMMERVILLE LADSON/LINCOLNVILLE 24 154,88914 SIX FIFTY SIX CONDOS MT PLEASANT 24 387,82515 WHITE GABLES KNIGHTSVILLE 23 222,99116 BOLTONS LANDING WEST ASHLEY 22 245,87117 FELDER CREEK CARNES/CANE BAY 21 196,25418 BROOKDALE NORTH CHARLESTON 20 196,37019 NELLIEFIELD PLTN NELLIEFIELD 20 257,88520 FENWICK HALL JOHNS ISLAND 19 187,573



Peninsula

N Charlesto

n

Ladso

n

West

Ashley

James Is

land

Mt Pleasa

nt

Johns Islan

d

Edist

o Islan

d

Awendaw/M

cClella

nville

Sanga

ree/S

ummerville

Moncks Corn

er

Goose Cre

ek

Hanah

an

Daniel Is

land

Ashley R

iver R

d

Dorcheste

r Rd

Summervi

lle

Knightsv

ille

Givhan

s0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

New Home Closings by Market Area

1/1/2013 - 6/30/2014


Johns/Wadmalaw Island

Kiawah/seabrook

James Island

Edisto Island

Edisto Island

Ladson

West Ashley

Ashley River Road

Awendaw/McClellanville

N Charleston

Daniel Island

HanahanOakbrook

Mt Pleasant/Islands

Givhans

Knightsville

Summerville

Carnes/Cane Bay

Goose Creek

Peninsula

New Home PriceBy Market Area

2014Source: Real Estate Information Service


New Home Average Price by Market Area


Peninsula

N Charlesto

n

Ladso

n

West

Ashley

James Isla

nd

Mt Pleasa

nt

Johns I

sland

Edisto Is

land

Awendaw/McC

lellanville

Sangaree/Summerville

Moncks C

orner

Goose Creek

Hanahan

Daniel Island

Ashley River R

d

Dorcheste

r Rd

Summerville

Knightsville

Givhans$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

2013 2014

Charleston Berkeley Dorchester

$313,146

$258,827$286,834

$267,791$255,036

$233,676


New Construction Activity




06/11 12/11 06/12 12/12 6/13 12/13 6/140

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Single Family Lot Closings

Ber Chs Dor


Mt Pleasant, Entitled Lots

Source: Valbridge

Average Land Purchase Price Ranges per entitled lot

2010 - 2012 $20,000 - $30,000 2013 $25,000 - $50,0002014 $45,000 - $80,000

• Over 200% increase in price range


What’s next ?


More builders and more

new homes!


Cane Bay Lakes – over 4,000 homesCarnes Crossroads – over 4,000 homesNexton – over 10,000 homesThe Ponds – over 1,500 Limehouse Vil lage- over 500 homesSummers Corner – approximated over 4,000 homes Grand Oaks – Grand Bees over 500 unitsFenwick Hil ls – over 150 unitsStono View – over 160 unitsMaybank Vil lage over 175 units

New Construction Planned to start 2014


Challenges?

• Downward pricing pressure with increased supply of new homes.

• Builders sti ll have a shortage of supply in highly desirable areas, but inventories are larger in other areas.

• Expect entitlements to take longer.

• Infrastructure needs to catch up with some areas to support growth.