last suttmeier of 2012
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December 31, 2012
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Treasury Yields
10-Year--(1.711) My daily value level is 1.754 with weekly risky levelat 1.622. The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are
1.688 and 1.720.
Commodities and Forex
Comex Gold ($1657.2) My daily value level is $1622.7 with aweekly risky level at $1718.1. The 50- day and 200-day simplemoving averages are $1707.3 and $1662.6.
Nymex Crude Oil ($90.75) Weekly and daily pivots are $91.29 and $92.27. The 50-dayand 200- day simple moving averages are $87.35 and $92.05.
The Euro (1.3218) My weekly pivot is 1.3200 with a daily risky level at 1.3277. The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are 1.2971 and 1.2784.
Major IndicesDaily DOW (12,938) My weekly value level is 12,862 with a daily risky level at
13,061. The QE3 high is 13,661.87 on October 5 with the October 2007 highat 14,198.10. The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are 13,069and 13,015.
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S&P 500 (1402.4) My weekly value level is 1392.9 with a daily risky level at1419.8. The QE3 high is 1474.51 on September 14 with the October 2007 highat 1576.09. The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are 1412.1 and
1390.2.
NASDAQ (2960) My weekly value level is 2935 with a daily risky level at
3007. The QE3 high is 3196.93 on September 21 is well above the November2007 high at 2861.51. The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are2981 and 2991.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2606) My weekly value level is 2584 with a daily riskylevel at 2646. The QE3 high is 2878.38 on September 21 is well above the
November 2007 high at 2239.23. The 50-day and 200-day simple movingaverages are 2649 and 2674.
Dow Transports (5221) My weekly value level is 5152 with a daily risky levelat 5361. The all time high at 5627.85 was set on July 7, 2011. The 50-day and200-day simple moving averages are 5122 and 5118.
Russell 2000 (832.10) My weekly value level is 820.87 with a daily risky levelat 849.72. The QE3 high is 868.50 on September 14 with the all time high at
868.57 set on May 2, 2011. The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averagesare 818.32 and 807.75.
The SOX (376.87) My weekly pivot is 376.36 with a daily risky level at 384.43.The QE3 high is 410.82 on September 14 with the July 2007 high at 549.39.The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are 374.18 and 387.63.
Stock of the Day
Dollar General (DG) Dollar General Corporation is a discount retailer in the United
States. The Company separates its merchandise into four categories, which includeshighly consumable, seasonal, home products and basic clothing. Highly consumableconsists of packaged food, candy, snacks and refrigerated products, health and
beauty aids, home cleaning supplies and pet supplies; seasonal consists of seasonaland holiday-related items, toys, stationery and hardware; home products consists of
house wares and domestics, and basic clothing consists of casual everyday apparel.Dollar General is among the largest retailers of top-quality products made byAmerica's most trusted manufacturers such as Procter & Gamble, Kimberly-Clark,Unilever, Kellogg's, General Mills, Nabisco, Fruit of the Loom, PepsiCo and Coca-Cola.
The Company store support center is located in Goodlettsville, Tennessee.
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Dollar General Corporation has a Buy rating according to ValuEngine with fair valueat $51.65, which makes the stock 17.3% overvalued. The ValuEngine one-year pricetarget is $47.22.The daily chart for DG shows declining momentum with the stock
below its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $45.26, $46.85 and$49.03. My semiannual value level is $39.16 with a weekly pivot at $45.87 andsemiannual risky level at $53.23.
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Market Overview
Summary of VE Stock Universe
Stocks Undervalued 57.50%
Stocks Overvalued 42.50%
Stocks Undervalued by 20% 21.19%
Stocks Overvalued by 20% 14.42%
Sector Overview
Sector Change MTD YTD Valuation Last 12-MReturn P/ERatio
Aerospace -1.09% 3.88% 7.52% 7.47% overvalued 7.75% 14.4
Auto-Tires-Trucks -0.46% 2.70% 17.31% 1.85% undervalued 12.62% 13.63
Basic Materials -0.57% 4.90% 2.83% 2.70% undervalued -13.58% 22.68
Business Services -0.14% 2.40% 11.58% 8.40% overvalued 10.71% 24.19
Computer and Technology -0.42% 1.67% 35.00% 6.94% overvalued 6.79% 34.65
Construction -0.55% 1.99% 73.64% 17.98% overvalued 36.53% 47.83
Consumer Discretionary -0.71% 0.38% 13.19% 1.89% overvalued 9.93% 25.28
Consumer Staples -0.42% -0.99% 13.43% 13.86% overvalued 10.05% 18.63
Finance -0.53% 1.04% 31.09% 10.52% overvalued 17.22% 19.59
Industrial Products -0.86% 1.39% 9.95% 11.31% overvalued 7.52% 20.45
Medical -0.55% 2.89% 27.27% 3.39% overvalued 12.89% 38.18
Multi-Sector Conglomerates -0.21% 3.46% 13.47% 2.50% undervalued 16.11% 13.39
Oils-Energy -0.57% 1.78% -5.43% 4.76% undervalued -8.39% 29.98
Retail-Wholesale -0.36% 0.35% 20.20% 11.69% overvalued 19.82% 24.94
Transportation -0.57% 1.61% 13.85% 8.11% overvalued 5.69% 18.76
Utilities -0.42% 1.13% -4.84% 4.84% overvalued 6.62% 18.23