latin america and populism - world...
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Covid 19-Pandemic
1
Laura Alfaro
Harvard Business School
& NBER
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It’s Health Shock: Global
• https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
• https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
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It’s an Economic Shock
Supply, Demand, Financial
Global Economics Shock: Advanced, Emerging, Advanced
- For many EMEs, the economics shocks hit before the health shock:
- Disruption of supply chains, collapse of trade, commodity prices,
tourism, remittances, and capital flows.
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Collapse Trade & Commodity Prices
Chart 1 - World merchandise trade volume, 2000-2022Index, 2015=100, Source: WTO Secretariat.
- Supply, global and regional value chains
- Demand
- Policy (Regulation, Protectionism/medical, food)
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Collapse in Tourism
https://webunwto.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3fs-
public/2020-03/UNWTO-Impact-Assessment-COVID19.pdf
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Collapse in Flows
Sudden Stop: Steeper and Faster
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/989721587512418006/pdf/COVID-19-Crisis-Through-a-Migration-Lens.pdf
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High Leverage
Individuals, Firms, Countries
https://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/gdsinf2020d3_en.pdf
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Previous Position: Weak
Economic, Fiscal, Social, Security
5.75.2
6.15.8
7.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GOBIERNO CENTRAL: DÉFICIT FINANCIERO(Como % del PIB nominal)
Fuente: BCCR
Costa Rica:
High Fiscal Deficits after Tax Reform and Growing Economy
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EMEs and Covid-19: Shutting Down in a World of
Informal & Tiny Firms
Alfaro, Becerra, Eslava (2020)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
High Contact Job
Can telework
Works at 11-50employees
Works at 10 employeesor less
Self-employed
Informal
Fraction of workers
Employment Characteristics: Colombia and USA
USA Colombia
2.7
7.1
3.3
9.1
5.1
13.5
3.8
9.0
1.6
3.2
9.99.9
9.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Colombia US Colombia US Colombia US Colombia US Colombia US
Crisis t=1 Crisis t=2 Crisis t=3 Recovery t=1 Recovery t=2
Millions
of
work
ers
Jobs at Risk: Strict Distancing Policy (Lockdown)
Formal Informal
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Unprecedented Policies
Local, State, National Public & Private
https://covidtracker.bsg.ox.ac.uk
https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Policy-Responses-to-COVID-19
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Debt Relief Poorer Countries
Multilaterals
World Bank
✔@WorldBank
Suspending bilateral debt payments will help
the poorest countries respond to #Coronavirus.
Our International Debt Statistics 2020 report
shows how the total external debt of low- and
middle-income countries has climbed.
http://wrld.bg/5kGA50zreAd
146
3:00 AM - Apr 29, 2020
https://blogs.worldbank.org/voices/may-1-2020-end-week-update-debt-relief-
worlds-poorest-countries
Debt Relief: And China?
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Covid-19 Shutdown: Type of Recessions
V U W L
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It’s a Global Economic Shock
Source: IMF, WEO 2015.
?
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Central America
FMI Banco Mundial2020 2021 (?) 2020 2021 (?)
América Latina y el Caribe -5,2 3,4 -4,6 2,6
Guatemala -2,0 5,5 -1,8 4,4
El Salvador -5,4 4,5 -4,3 4,8
Honduras -2,4 4,1 -2,3 3,9
Nicaragua -6,0 0,0 -4,3 1,9
Costa Rica -3,3 3,0 -3,3 4,5
Panamá -2,0 4,0 -2,0 4,2
Source: IMF, WB.
?
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It’s a Global Health Shock: Policies & FearAlfaro, Faia, Lamersdorf, Saidi (2020)
Social Interactions in Pandemics: Fear, Altruism, and Reciprocity
• Daily data for 89 cities worldwide: mobility declines with
risk perception (Google searches); norms (altruism, etc.)
– “Exit strategies”: ending the “lockdown” would not
necessarily bring people back to previous social
activity and spending.
• “You can open up the economy all you want, but when
they’re hiring refrigerator trucks to deliver dead bodies to
transport them to the morgues, not many people are
going to go out of their houses… blaming the
economic collapse on the policy, rather than on the
problem, is fallacious.” Larry Summers, HBS,04/20.
• It’s a Health Shock!
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Solution to a Health Shock
Testing, Treatments, Equipment and Vaccines
In the meantime: distancing (de facto/ de jure)
Progression of the disease: Stock Market/ Labor Market
Alfaro, Chari, Greenland, Schott (2020) show that day-to-day changes in the predictions of standard models of infectious disease forecast changes in aggregate stock returns in pandemics (Covid-19, SARs)/ ability to adjust costs.
Concerns
- Delay vaccine, treatments;
- No immunity;
- Longer lasting effects; etc.
213 Treatments in consideration
133 Vaccines in development
https://milkeninstitute.org/covid-19-tracker
https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-
conditions/treatments-for-covid-19
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Concerns
• “Medical” worst-case scenarios; Protectionism (Medical and Food)
• Policies: What will stay, what should stay, what will need investment?
• Liquidity-insolvency (duration of recovery, V?)
– What are people and firms going to buy, when?
• Hysteresis: “on-line” world; precautionary savings, etc.
• EMEs, developing: fiscal space to spend
– Capacity to spend so much so quickly? Institutional limitations
• Transparency/accountability
– Save “every job, every firm” versus more targeted policies
• Vulnerable; formal versus informal
• “All it takes” Every 10 years?
– Debt 80s, 90s (Tequila, Asian, ...), 00s (Brazil,…), GFC, Covid-19, Climate.