latin america trends scenario -...

Latin America Trends Scenario

Enterprise Integration Summit

April 13-14, 2010 WTC HotelSao Paulo, Brazil

Ione de Almeida Coco

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Strategic Imperative: As the global economic environment improves, returning to the IT practices of the past 10 years is not acceptable. Cost controls and new practices, implemented due to the crisis, must be continued in the future.

These are times of transition The economy is transitioning from recession to recovery Enterprises areThese are times of transition. The economy is transitioning from recession to recovery. Enterprises are transitioning their strategies from cost-cutting efficiency to value-creating productivity. Technologies are transitioning from "heavy" owner-operated solutions to "lighter weight" services. In turn, CIOs are transitioning IT beyond merely managing resources to taking responsibility for managing results. Business demands for productivity and capability set the requirements for IT's success in 2010, as well as expectations for the future. To meet these expectations, CIOs are responsible for leading IT in terms of its strategies, structure and priorities. CIOs know this requires them to transform IT, as they do not see a return to the past as a viable IT future.As they take advantage of new technologies and priorities, CIOs see a future based on more than provisioning technology solutions and services. In the future they envision, IT contributes to enterprise results, rather than being limited to managing IT resources. Realizing this future requires a fundamental shift in the focus of IT.The CIO is responsible for shifting IT's focus to conform with the context set by the enterprise and economic conditions. Successful CIOs are making the shift happen with a combination of personal leadership, the skills

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of the IT organization, a more highly evolved IT structure and improved metrics.


Tactical Guideline: Latin American organizations should take advantage of the worldwide economic situation, coupled with the strong economic environment and foreign direct investment in Latin America, to create new global competitive situations.

In 2009 CIOs focused on retrenchment as enterprises fought for survival during the financial crisis ManyIn 2009, CIOs focused on retrenchment, as enterprises fought for survival during the financial crisis. Many CIOs (43%) endured multiple budget cuts throughout the year. Economic conditions are expected to remain tight in 2010, with about half of CIOs expecting economic recovery during the year, but less than 10% seeing a return to 2008 levels of economic activity. The slide summarizes CIO views on economic conditions. CIOs recognize that they cannot act as they did in 2009 to meet the demands of the coming year.




Market Trend: Latin America is third in GDP growth worldwide, a trend that will continue and become stronger for the next five years.

This slide shows the collective GDP growth across the world The data is depicted in percentage growth inThis slide shows the collective GDP growth across the world. The data is depicted in percentage growth in 2010 and 2011 (the source is IHS Global Insight).The impact of this kind of growth will result in significant changes in: (1) New technologies; (2) Redefined packaging and pricing of technology and IT services; (3) Government programs; (4) Consumer markets; (5) Credit markets; and (6) Green technologies.Latin America will continue to show strong growth in both GDP and IT, increasing the importance of the region as a global force in IT and other industries An increasing number of Latin American companies willregion as a global force in IT and other industries. An increasing number of Latin American companies will grow outside the region, such as AmBev (now Anheuser-Busch InBev) becoming the largest brewing company in the world. Latin America has become a major target of investment funds, as corporations in the region continue to show growth and returns in excess of those of Europe and North America.Action Item: IT organizations in Latin America must become more globally aware, as globalization becomes the norm in the competitive landscape.




Latin America's size is impressive: more than 20 million square kilometers (8 million square miles) and aLatin America s size is impressive: more than 20 million square kilometers (8 million square miles) and a population of more than 570 million people. More than 30 countries, ranging in size from Brazil (3.4 million square miles) to tiny island states in the Caribbean, share a common origin — the Iberian Peninsula — and speak two languages, with Brazilians speaking Portuguese and the others speaking Spanish. A region of geographic contrasts, Latin America also shows socioeconomic contrasts that are remnants of colonial days. Diversity is everywhere. Gross national income (GNI) per capita varies, from Barbados ($9,270) to Haiti ($390), almost a 20-fold difference. The main countries in the region are quasi-strong and have solid economies (Brazil ranks 10th and Mexico ranks 13th in GDP) with reasonable GNIeconomies (Brazil ranks 10th and Mexico ranks 13th in GDP) with reasonable GNI. Despite efforts in the past 50 years, the region still has to overcome difficult challenges, such as wealth distribution, healthcare, education, unemployment and, in some areas, social unrest as well as infrastructure in general. Country instability is still greater than in Europe and North America — although far less than in Southeast Asia and Africa (according to the Conflict Assessment System Tool [CAST] from the Fund for Peace).Countries in Latin America have followed a steadier course in the past 20 or 30 years, and despite well-known

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problems, the potential for IT growth in Latin America is great. We believe that the major issues in the region are more focused on which segments of IT will have the greatest growth and how IT managers and CIOs can recognize the maximum ROI.


Market Trend: Latin America has strong software spending growth, second only to Asia/Pacific. Vendors are concentrating resources in this region, with high expectations for revenue growth.

Key Issue: How does IT in Latin America compare with IT in other geographies?

This slide is a summary of Gartner's regional IT spending forecasts for 2007 2010 and 2013 The chart depictsThis slide is a summary of Gartner s regional IT spending forecasts for 2007, 2010 and 2013. The chart depicts spending forecasts for 2007, 2010 and 2013 for four major regions: Asia/Pacific; Latin America; the Middle East and Africa; and Eastern Europe. The estimated combined market will reach $1.375 trillion in IT spending by 2013, or 35.8% of the total $3.837 trillion worldwide, and Latin America is 8.1% of the total worldwide.The critical point is that overall IT spending by Latin American CIOs is projected to be second only to the Asia/Pacific region. This means that critical decision making will be required, and the resulting direction will have a tremendous influence on major market segments. As a result, the opportunity to take advantage of significant channel influencers is importantsignificant channel influencers is important.One example is in Latin America, where the Brazilian government decided to officially adopt open-source options for operating system requirements in government offices. This decision propelled the open-source community support structure to new levels and raised the bar on quality and management. This had a significant impact on consistency and predictability of service. Finally, it was a major force that elevated the open-source movement.For more details, see "Gartner Dataquest Market Databook, December 2009 Update," G00173628.




Strategic Imperative: Latin America should seize the opportunity of budget growth, coupled with cost optimization, to innovate with new systems to support the business.

In 2009 CIOs raised efficiency in general and cost efficiency in particular to address IT budget cuts andIn 2009, CIOs raised efficiency in general, and cost-efficiency in particular, to address IT budget cuts and economic recession. They gained cost-efficiency by lowering the cost of IT resources through, for example, staff cuts, wage freezes and contract renegotiations. Meanwhile, with sales declining and the economy weakening, general management focused on raising cost-efficiencies in the face of dropping production volumes. Not every company, industry or geography will experience economic recovery at the same time. This means that some firms, even those in the same industry or country, will need to continue reducing costs in 2010. However, as their economic conditions transition and improve, CIOs will need to transition as well —taking steps to raise productivity in IT and across the enterprise.As 2010 unfolds, the increased budgets in IT in Latin America are cause for IT providers to increasingly focus on this region. It will see increased attention from incumbent providers, and also a growth in new providers and new technologies. The decision on where to put this new budget will become more difficult with all the new vendors and technologies.Action Item: CIOs must insist that providers show the business value of new technologies before committing to



new technologies or vendors.


Strategic Imperative: Latin American CIOs must pay attention to all costs (especially cost of operations), even while trying to grow. Business priorities are in line with the world economic downturn.

For 2010 the business expectations for Latin America are more in line with those of the rest of the world AsFor 2010, the business expectations for Latin America are more in line with those of the rest of the world. As BI and analytics drop in technical priority (under the assumption that after many years in the first position, the systems are being implemented), the use of these systems has moved up to second place. Improvements in business process and better use of resources throughout the business has become a major expectation. Finally, Latin America is placing business expectations on servicing and retaining customers as the organizations become more global in focus.Latin American corporations are becoming more global by acquiring companies or opening subsidiaries outside the region. Some examples are: America Movil, Cemex, Bimbo and Maseca in Mexico and AB InBev,outside the region. Some examples are: America Movil, Cemex, Bimbo and Maseca in Mexico and AB InBev, Embraer, Vale, Gerdau and Petrobras in Brazil.Latin American CIOs may understand these issues through their priorities but find themselves yielding to the business drivers in the growth economy. Systems for control must be implemented during these times to foresee upcoming changes in the environment.Action Item: Implement corporate performance management (CPM) systems to track business changes quickly, and alert management to pending changes.




Strategic Guideline: Strategic relationships between IT and the business units are a must, but Latin America has been behind in building these relationships. Latin America's IT must continue to place these relationships at the top of the priority list.

A ith th b i i iti th t t i i iti l h i b i th H th fAs with the business priorities, the strategic priorities also emphasize business growth. However, the use of information intelligence and analytics still rates counter to the technical priorities, in which BI applications are No. 1. The good news for Latin American organizations is that IT is placing the relationship with the business as a high priority, as can be seen by linking business and IT strategies. Latin America has lagged behind the rest of the world in this area, with IT traditionally dictating IT strategy and, in some cases, alienating the business. This is a long-awaited change in the strategy. This will also help find resources to build in a down economy.yIt is somewhat disconcerting that strategies using BI are low in priority, including expanding the use of information intelligence in operations. From a technology view, BI is No. 2, and the IT organization appears to have difficulty understanding where and how this can be used to an advantage for the business.




Market Trend: Technology priorities are aligned in Latin America with the worldwide numbers, creating the same opportunities in Latin America that exist outside the region today.

Several interesting points come from this study The most striking is that each year Latin America and theSeveral interesting points come from this study. The most striking is that each year, Latin America and the worldwide top 10 are in agreement, although the ordering may be different. Latin American CIOs and the IT industry have, during the past five years, become more closely aligned. Second, as budgets are generally smaller in Latin America, a priority such as virtualization and cloud computing is more important because of the perceived large cost reduction in overall infrastructure. For the fifth year in a row, BI is in the top two categories. Interestingly, many of the other priorities, such as enterprise applications and service-oriented architecture (SOA), are also affected by, or have an effect on, BI.enterprise applications and service oriented architecture (SOA), are also affected by, or have an effect on, BI. Because BI has such a wide-reaching influence within the enterprise, it has remained one of the top two priorities for several years. There is a lack of expertise on these issues in Latin America and a corresponding lack of knowledge within the Latin American market. This is leading to a large outsourcing requirement for BI and data warehousing (DW). We expect to see the necessary skills appearing in the market during the next three to five years, but for now, enterprises must look outside for them.Action Item: This is a global opportunity for firms with DW and BI skills to create a strong business model in



Latin America that can eventually be leveraged outside the region.


Key Issue: Will Latin America become a leader in nearshore sourcing?

The collective impact of emerging markets on the growth and trajectory of IT spending is undeniable ThisThe collective impact of emerging markets on the growth and trajectory of IT spending is undeniable. This slide depicts the World Bank's 2008 published forecasts for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth(http://go.worldbank.org/2GW6PU5830) in four key countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) that have come to be collectively known under the acronym BRIC. This represents a high-level look at the quantitative impact of the emerging market countries. On the right-hand side of the slide are quotes from announcements from large conglomerates about their growth strategies. These demonstrate how some enterprises recognize the alignment required between the growth of their products and services and their IT sourcing requirements.The recent economic recession caused an overall decline in the overall volume of Global Sourcing work directed to Latin American countries. The collective country associations from the Americas regions reported a decline of between 15% to 20%. However, relative to other regions (Asia/Pacific and EMEA), Latin America countries fared better by an average decline of only 5% to 7% (in U.S. dollars, for comparison purposes; in a basket of Latin America currencies, work directed to Latin America grew by 4% to 6%).




Market Trend: Latin America — specifically, Argentina, Brazil and Mexico — are among the leading offshore service locations worldwide.

It is hard to find an enterprise that is not somehow impacted by the globalization of its industry One recentIt is hard to find an enterprise that is not somehow impacted by the globalization of its industry. One recent statistic highlighting the point shows that 80% of Fortune 100 enterprises in the United States are using some IT resources nearshore or offshore. Further, Gartner estimates that the level of IT spending using a global delivery model exceeds $70 billion. The sourcing of IT services is pervasive and enterprises are consistently evaluating one or more country destinations to source IT services in a nearshore or offshore delivery model.Many organizations that choose to move IT services to lower-cost countries are daunted by the task of determining which country (or countries) would best host their operations.determining which country (or countries) would best host their operations.During the past 12 months, there has been significant activity in many countries to consolidate or grow their positions as leading locations for offshore services. The result of this is that two countries have dropped out of the Top 30, and two that were just outside the Top 30 a year ago have been "promoted." This is not because the "relegated" countries have been performing worse over the past year, but because this dynamic market has seen others making more noticeable progress. One of these countries — Uruguay — has re-entered the Top 30 after dropping just below the top tier in the previous year. Those leaving the Top 30 this year are: Pakistan and Panama.



The new entrants into the 30 leading countries for offshore services are: Indonesia and Uruguay.Related Research: "Gartner's 30 Leading Locations for Offshore Services" (G00172725).


Tactical Guideline: When undertaking a sourcing initiative, consider and evaluate countries in the Americas region as attractive alternatives to strike a convenient balance between offshore and nearshore opportunities.

Gartner has completed its annual analysis of 30 countries to assess their capability and potential as offshoreGartner has completed its annual analysis of 30 countries to assess their capability and potential as offshore service locations. We have identified 10 categories that we believe are important to consider when looking at a potential location for offshore or nearshore IT or business process services. Each category has been rated on a five-point scale from "poor," through "fair," "good," "very good" and "excellent." This provides an at-a-glance view of the current comparative status of that country, although a more detailed level of assessment was used to arrive at this simple categorization.Here, we depict a snapshot of some of the results of Gartner's report on the top 30 countries listed on theHere, we depict a snapshot of some of the results of Gartner s report on the top 30 countries listed on the previous slide. All 30 countries do not fit on one slide; therefore, we selected all the Latin American countries that were assessed in the report: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Mexico and Uruguay. Currently, the two largest markets are Brazil and Mexico. In addition, we selected the three countries that, along with Brazil, constitute the BRIC countries: Russia, India and China.

Related Research: "Gartner's Leading Locations for Offshore Services in the Americas for 2010"



Related Research: Gartner s Leading Locations for Offshore Services in the Americas for 2010 (G00174263).


Market Trend: Latin America is home to many strong offshore service providers, and supports offshore facilities for many international service providers.

The top 10 global market share leaders account for 27 8% of the worldwide professional services market withThe top 10 global market share leaders account for 27.8% of the worldwide professional services market, with the remaining portion being an extremely vast group of smaller providers that are often focused on targeted areas. Thus, the overall market is fragmented, because literally hundreds of providers globally make up the remaining 72.2% market share. Increasingly, many of these emerging providers have set up their delivery centers in many of the offshore countries that were already discussed.The growth rate of numerous emerging vendors is outpacing the industry average (estimated at 8%) by more than 20%. This is from a small base of revenue; nevertheless, the increasing competitiveness presents the mostthan 20%. This is from a small base of revenue; nevertheless, the increasing competitiveness presents the most important opportunities to buyers in the form of more robust options.Gartner is tracking more than 100 offshore providers from more than 30 countries. Overall estimates indicate that there are more than 10,000 service provider vendors at a worldwide level. This creates a great deal of competition and forces vendors to address buyer demand to succeed. New lines continue to be drawn. The bar is being raised to a global standard versus old national boundaries. Now, there is a new norm for acceptable process-driven application development. All other areas of complacency, inefficiency and ineffectiveness are



the focus for the next wave of service.


Strategic Imperative: Companies should factor the top 10 technologies into their strategic planning process and make deliberate decisions about them during the next two years. This does not necessarily mean adopting and investment in all the listed technologies.

Key Issue: What will be the key IT trends in Latin America during the next five years?

Three items were removed from the list in 2010. Unified communications is still a strategic long-term trend but evolution continues at a slow pace,Three items were removed from the list in 2010. Unified communications is still a strategic long term trend but evolution continues at a slow pace, making it less critical to highlight on this year's list. The dual trend toward specialized systems and servers beyond blades continues, with some vendors emphasizing "converged systems" that bring network, storage and server functions. However, in 2010, we do not expect major shifts in the market and have replaced these technologies with other new data center technologies for consideration (flash memory, reshaping data center). These topics were added to specialized systems and "beyond blades" approaches for data center planning in 2010/2011. It should be noted that removing a technology from the list does not mean it is no longer strategic. Rather, it simply reflects a shift in emphasis relative to other technologies. In some cases, technologies are rotated from year to year to expose a larger number of technologies over time.A number of topics remain on the list but with a new emphasis. Many aspects such as virtualization, including virtualized servers, storage and networking, are part of the strategic plan for many data centers, and virtualization has become an integral part of other trends on the 2010 list, such as cloud computing and client computing. In 2010, we emphasize new elements such as live migration for availability that have longer-term implications. Cloud computing is maturing, with emphasis placed on public cloud service consumption, private cloud environment development and Web/cloud application development. WOA and enterprise mashups are brought together as part of this topic. A particularly strategic emphasis for business intelligence is advanced analytics, which is a key technology to support Pattern-Based Strategy™. Social software and social networking will mature in the next two to five years in many dimensions affecting applications, application development and security. Social computing picks up this theme. Green IT will remain strategic but the aspect that deals with energy consumption will be an increasingly integral part of data center and client strategies and, as such, is dealt with as part of reshaping the data center and client computing. In 2010, the focus shifts to how technology to support greener business (that is, IT for green) augments the green IT strategies for improved IT energy efficiency. In addition to flash memory and reshaping the data center, three other technologies were added. Client computing and mobile applications reflect a maturing and convergence of trends related to end-user devices and applications, as well as the location where the devices are used. Mobile applications in particular reflect the increasing importance of this market as an increasingly important touchpoint for an enterprise's customers and



applications in particular reflect the increasing importance of this market as an increasingly important touchpoint for an enterprise s customers and the need for IT to factor this into its strategy. Note: In the above text, items on the 2009 list are highlighted in bold, while items on the 2010 list are highlighted in italics.


Strategic Imperative: Establish a project team that includes representatives from across IT, as well as key business constituencies, to establish an overall approach to cloud computing and evaluate the opportunities and risks associated with this new style of computing.

In the past 15 years IT industrialization has grown in popularity IT services delivered via hardware software and peopleIn the past 15 years, IT industrialization has grown in popularity. IT services delivered via hardware, software and people are becoming repeatable and usable by a wide range of customers and service providers. This is partly because of the commoditization and standardization of technologies, virtualization and the rise of service-oriented software architectures, and (most importantly) the dramatic growth in the popularity/use of the Internet. These things, taken together, constitute the basis of a discontinuity that amounts to a new opportunity to shape the relationship between those who use IT services and those who sell them. The discontinuity implies that the ability to deliver specialized services in IT can now be paired with the ability to deliver those services in an industrialized and pervasive way. The reality of this implication is that users of IT-related services can focus on what the services provide them, rather than how the services are implemented or hostedare implemented or hosted.Just as utility companies sell power to subscribers, and telephone companies sell voice and data services, IT services such as network security management, data center hosting or even departmental billing can now be easily delivered as a contractual service. The buying decision then shifts from buying products that enable the delivery of some function (like billing) toward contracting, with someone else delivering those functions. This isn't new, but it does represent a different model from the licensed-based, on-premises models that have dominated the IT industry for so long. Names for this type of operation have come into vogue at different times. Utility computing, SaaS, application service providers — all have their place in the "pantheon" of industrialized delivery models. However, none has garnered widespread acceptance as the

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central theme for how any and all IT-related services can be delivered globally.


Definition: Optimization and simulation is using analytical tools and models to maximize business process and decision effectiveness by examining alternative outcomes and scenarios before, during and after process implementation and execution.

We have reached the point in the improvement of performance and costs that we can afford to perform analytics andWe have reached the point in the improvement of performance and costs that we can afford to perform analytics and simulation for every action taken in the business. Not only will data center systems be able to do this, but mobile devices will have access to data and enough capability to perform analytics themselves, potentially enabling use of optimization and simulation everywhere and every time.This can be viewed as a third step in supporting operational business decisions. Fixed rules and prepared policies gave way to more informed decisions powered by the right information delivered at the right time, whether through CRM, ERP or other applications. The new step is to provide simulation, prediction, optimization and other analytics, not simply information, to empower even more decision flexibility at the time and place of every business process action.Another way to view this is as a shift in timing. Business intelligence has mainly provided us with historical analysis, increasingly powerful ways of analyzing what has already happened. We can increase the scope of the information that is analyzed and we can reduce delays between the data creation and its analysis, but, at heart, this is a look backward. The new step looks to the future, predicting what can or will happen.We don't want to spot only past patterns of suspicious activity that might indicate that fraud has already occurred. Think of the additional value if we could look at an action as it is taking place, predict the results, spot the fraud that will ensueand be able to stop it before it materializes. What if we could predict the likely sales in a store from remaining inventory for various possible purchases at this moment and offer inducements to a customer to pick the product right now that



for various possible purchases at this moment, and offer inducements to a customer to pick the product right now that maximizes likely total revenue for the remainder of the day?Advanced analytics also involves new technologies to search unstructured content and other search enhancements.


By YE10 1 2 billion people will carry handsets capable of rich mobile commerce providing a rich environment for the convergenceBy YE10, 1.2 billion people will carry handsets capable of rich, mobile commerce providing a rich environment for the convergence of mobility and the Web. Mobile devices are becoming computers in their own right, with an astounding amount of processing ability and bandwidth.In Latin America, Telefonica (with 40% of revenue from Latin America) and BlackBerry (now manufacturing in Brazil) are both concentrating on mobile applications. We already see many thousands of applications for platforms like the Apple iPhone, in spite of the limited market (only for the one platform) and need for unique coding. How much bigger would this be if many of the same applications that run in the enormous PCmarket were usable on mobile devices, without having to be developed explicitly for that platform? It may take a newer version that is designed to flexibly operate on both full PC and miniature systems but if the operating system interface and processor architectureis designed to flexibly operate on both full PC and miniature systems, but if the operating system interface and processor architecture were identical, that enabling factor would create a huge turn upward in mobile application availability.New marketplaces such as the iTunes store enable the easy dispersion of these B2C mobile applications. Potential users can visit a reasonable number of such sites to find and download their desired programs, instead of requiring each business to promote its application and lure customers to a unique download mechanism.Moore's Law gives us twice as many transistors in the same chip area, which for PCs is leading to an increasing number of cores in newer systems to employ all those added transistors. However, an alternate approach is to implement a single simple x86 processor on an ever-shrinking chip, with both cost and size decreasing as transistor densities keep improving. This allows an x86 system to be deployed in mobile devices and in other places that don't suit a full PC Current activities like the Intel Atom processors show this



deployed in mobile devices and in other places that don t suit a full PC. Current activities like the Intel Atom processors show this potential is near, while research projects and demonstrations point to its feasibility. Gartner predicts that the technical, business and market issues will be overcome, luring processor makers like Intel, mobile device makers and software developers into making this possibility become a future reality.


Tactical Guideline: As open-source technology matures and support becomes commercially available in Latin America, organizations should consider using open-source products to reduce dependence on proprietary vendors and reduce the total cost of ownership.

Latin America is adopting open source at a greater pace than many other regions and countries Many LatinLatin America is adopting open source at a greater pace than many other regions and countries. Many Latin American countries rank high in the number of open-source downloads (for example, Brazil is fifth for MySQL downloads). New companies are springing up, offering support for open-source products, thus allowing organizations to purchase support as opposed to using community support.Mainstream open-source adoption patterns are changing in two ways. Open-source solutions are deployed in increasingly mission-critical scenarios in which the service level must be equal to or better than closed-source alternatives, and open-source solutions are also being adopted by increasingly conservative IT organizations that regard cost and risk mitigation as their primary concerns. Hype Cycle positions reflect these patterns,that regard cost and risk mitigation as their primary concerns. Hype Cycle positions reflect these patterns, because technologies emerging from the Trough of Disillusionment are best-suited to both challenges. The 2009 Hype Cycle continued to show the relatively recent impact of open source broadly across mainstream IT market segments, with 70% of the technologies currently positioned before the Trough of Disillusionment. This is further supported by aggressive maturity time frames, because 80% of the technologies show "time to Plateau" metrics within five years, up from 72% in 2008.Action Item: In Latin America, consider using open source in production systems and for desktop applications, but always purchase subscription support contracts.



but always purchase subscription support contracts.

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