Lawrence Yun, PhD

Unemployment Rate … almost back to normal

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Total Jobs … 4 million short of pre-pandemic

115000

120000

125000

130000

135000

140000

145000

150000

155000In thousands

State-by-State Job Growth from March 2020

Job Openings

3000400050006000700080009000

100001100012000

2015

- Ja

n20

15 -

Mar

2015

- M

ay20

15 -

Jul

2015

- Se

p20

15 -

Nov

2016

- Ja

n20

16 -

Mar

2016

- M

ay20

16 -

Jul

2016

- Se

p20

16 -

Nov

2017

- Ja

n20

17 -

Mar

2017

- M

ay20

17 -

Jul

2017

- Se

p20

17 -

Nov

2018

- Ja

n20

18 -

Mar

2018

- M

ay20

18 -

Jul

2018

- Se

p20

18 -

Nov

2019

- Ja

n20

19 -

Mar

2019

- M

ay20

19 -

Jul

2019

- Se

p20

19 -

Nov

2020

- Ja

n20

20 -

Mar

2020

- M

ay20

20 -

Jul

2020

- Se

p20

20 -

Nov

2021

- Ja

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21 -

Mar

2021

- M

ay20

21 -

Jul

In thousands

Existing-Home Sales – Recent Months

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

5,500,000

6,000,000

6,500,000

7,000,00020

19 -

Jan

2019

- Fe

b20

19 -

Mar

2019

- Ap

r20

19 -

May

2019

- Ju

n20

19 -

Jul

2019

- Au

g20

19 -

Sep

2019

- O

ct20

19 -

Nov

2019

- De

c20

20 -

Jan

2020

- Fe

b20

20 -

Mar

2020

- Ap

r20

20 -

May

2020

- Ju

n20

20 -

Jul

2020

- Au

g20

20 -

Sep

2020

- O

ct20

20 -

Nov

2020

- De

c20

21 -

Jan

2021

- Fe

b20

21 -

Mar

2021

- Ap

r20

21 -

May

2021

- Ju

n20

21 -

Jul

2021

- Au

g20

21 -

Sep

Annual Existing-Home Sales

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

5,500,000

6,000,000

6,500,000

7,000,000

7,500,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Newly Constructed Single-family Home Sales

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2000

- Ja

n20

00 -

Aug

2001

- M

ar20

01 -

Oct

2002

- M

ay20

02 -

Dec

2003

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l20

04 -

Feb

2004

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p20

05 -

Apr

2005

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ov20

06 -

Jun

2007

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n20

07 -

Aug

2008

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ar20

08 -

Oct

2009

- M

ay20

09 -

Dec

2010

- Ju

l20

11 -

Feb

2011

- Se

p20

12 -

Apr

2012

- N

ov20

13 -

Jun

2014

- Ja

n20

14 -

Aug

2015

- M

ar20

15 -

Oct

2016

- M

ay20

16 -

Dec

2017

- Ju

l20

18 -

Feb

2018

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p20

19 -

Apr

2019

- N

ov20

20 -

Jun

2021

- Ja

n20

21 -

Aug

12-month moving averageIn thousand units

Fast Contracts … % of homes with less than 30 Days on Market

0102030405060708090

100

2012 -Jan

2013 -Jan

2014 -Jan

2015 -Jan

2016 -Jan

2017 -Jan

2018 -Jan

2019 -Jan

2020 -Jan

2021 -Jan

% Contracts Settled on Time … Appraiser Shortage?

6062646668707274767880

2018 -Jan

2018 -May

2018 -Sep

2019 -Jan

2019 -May

2019 -Sep

2020 -Jan

2020 -May

2020 -Sep

2021 -Jan

2021 -May

2021 -Sep

Worker Shortage Everywhere except NAR Membership

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1,100,000

1,200,000

1,300,000

1,400,000

1,500,000

1,600,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Investor Buyer Share … fairly normal(What happened to Zillow and lead generation?)

02468

101214161820

2016 -Jan

2016 -Jul

2017 -Jan

2017 -Jul

2018 -Jan

2018 -Jul

2019 -Jan

2019 -Jul

2020 -Jan

2020 -Jul

2021 -Jan

2021 -Jul

Home Buyers 1981 and 2021

Key Age … First-time Buyers and Retirees

Median Home Price … Price-to-income ratio

$100,000$150,000$200,000$250,000$300,000$350,000$400,000

2000- Jan

2001- Jan

2002- Jan

2003- Jan

2004- Jan

2005- Jan

2006- Jan

2007- Jan

2008- Jan

2009- Jan

2010- Jan

2011- Jan

2012- Jan

2013- Jan

2014- Jan

2015- Jan

2016- Jan

2017- Jan

2018- Jan

2019- Jan

2020- Jan

2021- Jan

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2000 -Jan

2001 -Jan

2002 -Jan

2003 -Jan

2004 -Jan

2005 -Jan

2006 -Jan

2007 -Jan

2008 -Jan

2009 -Jan

2010 -Jan

2011 -Jan

2012 -Jan

2013 -Jan

2014 -Jan

2015 -Jan

2016 -Jan

2017 -Jan

2018 -Jan

2019 -Jan

2020 -Jan

2021 -Jan

Hot Markets

Metro 2020 Q3 to 2021 Q3

Austin 33%

Naples 32%

Boise City 31%

Ocala 30%

Salt Lake City 27%

Phoenix 26%

New York Metro 24%

Metro Price … Austin, Charlotte, Chicago

0

100

200

300

400

500

60020

00 -

Q1

2001

- Q

120

02 -

Q1

2003

- Q

120

04 -

Q1

2005

- Q

120

06 -

Q1

2007

- Q

120

08 -

Q1

2009

- Q

120

10 -

Q1

2011

- Q

120

12 -

Q1

2013

- Q

120

14 -

Q1

2015

- Q

120

16 -

Q1

2017

- Q

120

18 -

Q1

2019

- Q

120

20 -

Q1

2021

- Q

1

In thousand dollars

Mortgage Payment to Income is Manageable

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000

- Ja

n20

00 -

Jul

2001

- Ja

n20

01 -

Jul

2002

- Ja

n20

02 -

Jul

2003

- Ja

n20

03 -

Jul

2004

- Ja

n20

04 -

Jul

2005

- Ja

n20

05 -

Jul

2006

- Ja

n20

06 -

Jul

2007

- Ja

n20

07 -

Jul

2008

- Ja

n20

08 -

Jul

2009

- Ja

n20

09 -

Jul

2010

- Ja

n20

10 -

Jul

2011

- Ja

n20

11 -

Jul

2012

- Ja

n20

12 -

Jul

2013

- Ja

n20

13 -

Jul

2014

- Ja

n20

14 -

Jul

2015

- Ja

n20

15 -

Jul

2016

- Ja

n20

16 -

Jul

2017

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n20

17 -

Jul

2018

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n20

18 -

Jul

2019

- Ja

n20

19 -

Jul

2020

- Ja

n20

20 -

Jul

2021

- Ja

n20

21 -

Jul

Mortgage Rate to Rise

2.002.503.003.504.004.505.005.50

2018

- Ja

n20

18 -

Mar

2018

- M

ay20

18 -

Jul

2018

- Se

p20

18 -

Nov

2019

- Ja

n20

19 -

Mar

2019

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ay20

19 -

Jul

2019

- Se

p20

19 -

Nov

2020

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n20

20 -

Mar

2020

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ay20

20 -

Jul

2020

- Se

p20

20 -

Nov

2021

- Ja

n20

21 -

Mar

2021

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ay20

21 -

Jul

2021

- Se

p20

21 -

Nov

2022

- Ja

n20

22 -

Mar

2022

- M

ay20

22 -

Jul

2022

- Se

p20

22 -

Nov

First-time Homebuyers Experience• Saving for down-payment was the most difficult task

• Made financial sacrifices

• 28% received help … loan/ gifts from family or friends

• Tax Credit Help? With Diversity Equity Inclusion• Maxine Waters proposal … extra help for minorities

• Homebuyer tax credit with income thresholds

• Homebuyer tax credit for first generation buyers

Decade-high demand for multifamily rentals

Strong apartment rent growth among Large markets

Strong apartment rent growth in Mid-sized markets

Low Housing Inventory … will shoot higher in 2022

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

450000020

00 -

Jan

2001

- Ja

n20

02 -

Jan

2003

- Ja

n20

04 -

Jan

2005

- Ja

n20

06 -

Jan

2007

- Ja

n20

08 -

Jan

2009

- Ja

n20

10 -

Jan

2011

- Ja

n20

12 -

Jan

2013

- Ja

n20

14 -

Jan

2015

- Ja

n20

16 -

Jan

2017

- Ja

n20

18 -

Jan

2019

- Ja

n20

20 -

Jan

2021

- Ja

n

Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Starts

0

1

2

3

4

5

620

00 -

Q1

2001

- Q

120

02 -

Q1

2003

- Q

120

04 -

Q1

2005

- Q

120

06 -

Q1

2007

- Q

120

08 -

Q1

2009

- Q

120

10 -

Q1

2011

- Q

120

12 -

Q1

2013

- Q

120

14 -

Q1

2015

- Q

120

16 -

Q1

2017

- Q

120

18 -

Q1

2019

- Q

120

20 -

Q1

2021

- Q

1

Homebuilder Opportunity … Easy Profit

Death Certificates in U.S.

2,000,0002,200,0002,400,0002,600,0002,800,0003,000,0003,200,0003,400,0003,600,0003,800,000

12-month total

% of REALTORS® expecting constant or positive price growth over the next 12 months

0102030405060708090

100

2009

- Ja

n20

09 -

Jul

2010

- Ja

n20

10 -

Jul

2011

- Ja

n20

11 -

Jul

2012

- Ja

n20

12 -

Jul

2013

- Ja

n20

13 -

Jul

2014

- Ja

n20

14 -

Jul

2015

- Ja

n20

15 -

Jul

2016

- Ja

n20

16 -

Jul

2017

- Ja

n20

17 -

Jul

2018

- Ja

n20

18 -

Jul

2019

- Ja

n20

19 -

Jul

2020

- Ja

n20

20 -

Jul

2021

- Ja

n20

21 -

Jul

Consumer Price Inflation

-2-10123456

2015- Jan

2015- Jul

2016- Jan

2016- Jul

2017- Jan

2017- Jul

2018- Jan

2018- Jul

2019- Jan

2019- Jul

2020- Jan

2020- Jul

2021- Jan

2021- Jul

Mobile Home Getting Expensive Inflation of 24% … $106,000

-10-505

1015202530

2015 -Jan

2015 -Jul

2016 -Jan

2016 -Jul

2017 -Jan

2017 -Jul

2018 -Jan

2018 -Jul

2019 -Jan

2019 -Jul

2020 -Jan

2020 -Jul

2021 -Jan

Consumer Price Inflation … Rent Component … Never consider Canceling Rent

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

2015 -Jan

2015 -Jul

2016 -Jan

2016 -Jul

2017 -Jan

2017 -Jul

2018 -Jan

2018 -Jul

2019 -Jan

2019 -Jul

2020 -Jan

2020 -Jul

2021 -Jan

2021 -Jul

Home Price as Inflation Hedge

Decade Home PriceAverage Annual

Consumer PriceAverage Annual

1970s 9.9% 7.1%

1980s 5.5% 5.6%

1990s 4.1% 3.0%

2000s 2.3% 2.6%

2010s 4.9% 1.8%

2020 + 2021 12% 3%

Cryptocurrency as Inflation Hedge

• Stay away … It’s a fraud

• Short-term bored gamblers

• Mid-term investors … knowing institutional money and validation

• Long-term investors … don’t trust the government

Home Sales Revenue Forecast

Year Unit Sales Home Price Dollar Volume

2015 +6.3% +6.8% +12%

2016 +3.8% +5.1% +9%

2017 +1.1% +5.7% +7%

2018 -3.1% +4.9% +2%

2019 0.0% +4.9% +5%

2020 +5.6% +9.1% +15%

2021 +6.4% +14.7% +21%

2022 -1.7% +2.8% +1%

South Korea: Better or Worse Life?