Written and Charted by

Cian Fahey

Layout and Designby

Cian Fahey

Editedby

Rivers McCown

2

R YA N F I T Z P A T R I C KAge:

33Attempts:

562Yards: 3,905

Touchdowns: 31

Interceptions:15

Completion Percentage:

59.6%Average:

6.9Sacks:

19

Interceptable Passes:

30(2nd)

Interceptable Pass Rate:

18.7(32nd)

Failed Receptions:

45(13th)

Lost Yards:618

(5th)

Attempts per Failure:

12.5(19th)

Simple YAC Completions:

115(15th)

Simple YACYards:

995(12th)

Simple YAC Percentage:

25.5%(13th)

It didn’t take Todd Bowles long to follow conventional wisdom. Almost immediately after the 2015 season concluded, Bowles committed to Ryan Fitzpatrick as his starting quarterback in 2016. That is, assuming the Jets could re-sign the impending free agent. Bowles didn’t care that his Jets had acquired Fitzpatrick to be a backup to Geno Smith the previous offseason. He didn’t care that Fitzpatrick only saw the field because Smith got injured in a freak situation. The rookie head coach didn’t care that Fitzpatrick had let down every single coach and team that had bought into him as a starting quarterback in the past. He didn’t even care that Fitzpat-rick’s mistakes in Week 17 cost the Jets a playoff spot. Most importantly, Bowles didn’t recognize that Fitzpatrick had prevented his team from being a contender in the AFC. He didn’t recognize that Fitzpatrick was one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. Fitzpatrick was being credited with making the Jets competitive again. He was being credited with turning a 4-12 team into a 10-6 team over the course of one offseason. His play wasn’t being closely scrutinized. The Jets were simply happy to be relevant regard-less of how they got there, and the culture of the league pushed them into crediting the new quarterback for that relevance. Yes, he threw 31 touchdown passes, but that number says more about the improvements made around him rather than him elevating inherit-ed pieces from the previous season. Seven of those touchdowns came on Simple YAC plays, only Matt Ryan registered more Simple YAC scores than Fitzpatrick did. Fitzpatrick was benefiting from the brilliant play designs of Chan Gailey. He gained 995 yards of Simple YAC on 115 attempts. That means 25.5 percent of his yardage came on Simple YAC plays and those plays accounted for just 20.5 percent of his attempts. When he wasn’t racking up scores on quick throws underneath on simple play designs, Fitzpatrick was throwing to Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall. Marshall arrived in New York with a reputation for being one of the most talented receivers in the league, but he comfortably exceeded those expectations. The veteran receiver had arguably the best season of his career despite struggling with drops. Marshall’s drops weren’t significant because of all the plays he was making. Fitzpatrick couldn’t throw with precision, so Marshall was constantly being asked to bail him out with difficult adjustments to passes that floated far away from him, arrived away from his body, or were thrown with poor timing. In Week 16 against the Patriots, Fitzpatrick connected with Marshall on a 33-yard touchdown throw. Marshall lined up wide to the left initially before motioning into a bunch with his two slot receivers. It was third-and-11, so the Patriots sent a blitz after Fitzpat-

3

-rick and played Cover-2 behind with man coverage underneath. Marshall’s motion before the snap forced the cornerback responsible for him to drop further off the line of scrimmage. As soon as Marshall released vertically downfield, both his cornerback and the safety to that side of the field focused on Marshall. Marshall was running a double move route, a route that shouldn’t have worked against this coverage. The deep safety bought too hard on Marshall’s fake though, giving the receiver a chance to accelerate down-field. Fitzpatrick recognized this and tried to push the ball into the end-zone to lead Marshall to space. He couldn’t. Fitzpatrick’s pass needed to be thrown with velocity and arrive in the back half of the endzone, in line with the numbers outside. Instead, his pass arrived three yards outside of the endzone and in a position where the safety would have been waiting to catch the ball. The safety never had a chance to catch the ball because of how bad-ly Marshall had beaten him in his route. Marshall not only beat the defen-sive back deep, he then recognized the poorly thrown pass from Fitzpatrick and extended above the defender to make a difficult reception. Marshall stumbled into the endzone for the touchdown. Nothing was made easy for Marshall, but he responded to his situa-tion by playing his best ball. Marshall deserved an All-Pro spot at a time when it’s never been tougher to earn one of those spots. Playing across from Marshall made Eric Decker’s job easier. Decker was the number two in the eyes of the offense and the de-fense. That meant his matchups were easier to win than they had been in 2014. More importantly, Decker was fully healthy in 2015. He had tried to be the Jets’ number one receiver in 2014 while playing hurt. Decker was able to consistently get the better of the defensive backs trying to cover him. He wasn’t as consistent or as effective as Marshall, but he was also able to mask a lot of Fitzpatrick’s accuracy issues when throwing the ball downfield. The two receivers combined for an incredible 26 touchdowns. Gailey had to focus the offense through those two receivers because Fitzpatrick wasn’t precise enough to inlude Quincy Enun-wa, Kenbrell Thompkins, Devin Smith or Jeremy Kerley consistently. Smith’s inability to make an impact when healthy was particularly telling. He had one drop of note deep down the middle of the field, but too often Fitzpatrick didn’t give him any chance at catching the ball when he had gotten in behind defensive backs downfield. Fitzpatrick had the second-worst Accuracy Percentage of any quarterback charted, 72.0 percent. His arm has diminished to the point that he has to wind up his throws like a cartoon character when throwing further than 10 yards downfield. He was never a preci-sion passer in the first place, so dwindling arm strength can only lead to more reckless ball placement. The obvious counterpoint to Fitzpatrick’s accuracy flaws is his intelligence. Fitzpatrick’s Harvard education is too often refer-enced as evidence of his intelligence. Unless Harvard offers classes where lecturers throw chairs at you during exams-- and at last check that wasn’t in the brochure -- his academic achievements are irrelevant. Over the course of his career, Fitzpatrick has been a horrible decision maker. In 2015, he had 15 interceptions but 30 interceptable passes. Only Carson Palmer had more interceptable passes, and that was the result of a late-season collapse while playing with an injured finger. Bowles’ prospective 2016 starter threw an interceptable pass once every 18.7 attempts. Only Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Johnny Manziel had worse Interceptable Pass Rates. Fitzpatrick shouldn’t have even lasted the full season as the team’s starter. He began the season with two interceptable passes against the Browns, three against the Colts, four against the Eagles and four more against the Dolphins. Those 13 interceptable passes were more than Sam Bradford or Aaron Rodgers threw over the entire season. Using luck as an explanation in analysis of any sport is stigmatized. Luck is what kept Fitzpatrick on the field in 2015. He threw 15 interceptions but should have had twice as many. Having a quarterback who relies on his supporting cast to be productive isn’t an insurmountable problem because you can control the quality of your supporting cast. Having a quarterback who relies on opponents to limit his turnovers is a much bigger issue. The Jets can’t control the quality of their opposition. This is the exact situation that the Browns went through with Hoyer in 2014. Fitzpatrick limited the offense around him while relying on luck to avoid disastrous turnovers each week. The Browns were able to move on from Hoyer relatively quickly because of how their season as a whole developed. The taste of the playoffs kept the Jets tied to Fitzpatrick. A belief that they were moving in the right direction even though their quarterback was anchoring them to the point that they couldn’t stop moving around in the same circle. A misguided perception has pushed Fitzpatrick into this role of franchise savior. The Jets had a defense that ranked top five in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and gave up just 19.6 points per game. The quarterback had two starting receivers to rely on who could mitigate his accuracy issues, while Chris Ivory was arguably the best back in football over the first half of the season. The Jets may have surpassed their expectations from before the season but when you evaluate what actually happened on the field, it’s clear that the roster

Opponent Interceptable Opponent Interceptable

CLE Wk1 2 MIA Wk12 2

IND Wk2 3 NYG Wk13 1

PHI Wk3 4 TEN Wk14 1

MIA Wk4 4 DAL Wk15 2

WAS Wk6 1 BUF Wk17 2

JAX Wk9 2

BUF Wk10 3

HOU Wk11 3

4

Failed Receptions:0 or less 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31+

4 10 8 9 3 1 6 4

Simple YAC:0 or less 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31+

15 34 28 17 12 4 3 2

Sacks:

was built to achieve more. It’s clear that Fitzpatrick was the reason that they underachieved. 2016 will be the year when the Jets become the fourth victim of the Ryan Fitzpatrick mirage, following in the footsteps of the Buffalo Bills, Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans.

Avoidable Unavoidable OL Beaten Blown Assignment RB/TE Beaten Coverage Sack Missed Read Process in Pocket9 10 7 1 0 2 5 4