leap of faith to unknown territory estonian ev programme
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A leap of faith, in its most commonly used meaning, is the act of believing in or accepting
something intangible or unprovableWikipedia
Leap of faith to unknown?
Jarmo Tuisk
Introduction of EV’s to Estonian market
Can we predict the future? I mean really?
Heavier-than-air flying
machines are impossible
Lord Kelvin The President of the Royal Society
1895
„I think there is a world market for maybe five computers“
Thomas J. WatsonCEO, IBM
Consumers
Electric carsInfrastructure
Future is puzzle ...
Consumers point of view
The future belongs to (PH)EVs
Data: Accenture consumer survey 2011
95% of Chinese would buy (PH)EV as next car
Data: Accenture consumer survey 2011
But the future should look like today!
Data: Accenture consumer survey 2011
Although the actual needs are different
Data: Accenture consumer survey 2011
~110-120km per charge in Estonia
and the cost of tranportation is rising
Data: Estonian statistics
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%Share of transportation costs in househould monthly expenditures, %
and the cost of tranportation is risingDo you really need toengage polar bearsto explain thenecessity of change?
Preconditions for change:
infrastructure + cars
Planning of the Estonian EV infrastructure
Planning steps
Use cases• Who • Why• When
Services• What• How (much)
Locations• Where
Technology• With what• How
EV charging use casesPublic/shared charger
Dedicated charger
Routine/plannedcharging
Extraordinarycharging
Daily home charging
Daily office charging
Routine sharedcharging
Travelcharging
Emergencycharging
Use cases and technology options
Daily home charging
Daily office charging
Routine sharedcharging
Travelcharging
Emergencycharging
AC Normal6-8h
AC Medium1-2h
DC fast20-30min
OK
OK
Maybe
Not ok
Not OK
Maybe
Maybe
Maybe
OK
Maybe
Not OK
Not OK
OK
OK
OK
DC quick charging: best match for public chargers Public/shared charger
Dedicated charger
Routinecharging
Extraordinarycharging
Daily home charging
Daily office charging
Routine sharedcharging - OK
Travelcharging - OK
Emergencycharging - OK
3 main use-cases for Estonian public charging network
• Locations hard to predict• Cover the main routes
Emergency charging
• Locations easy to predict• Follow the daily routines
Shared routine charging
• Locations easier to predict• Emphasize tourist routesTravel charging
Initial layout of chargers
Effect of one quick charger in Tokyo
AfterBefore
Quick charging standards
EURELECTRIC’s position:
CHAdeMO should be the first DC charging standard for Europe and all new standards should preserve backward compatibility.
electric cars
Myths about...Electric cars• Too small to be the real cars• You can’t use them because
there is no infrastructure• You can’t drive them,
because they don’t drive more than 120km per charge
• They are too expensive!
Smart phones• They are too big to be
convenient• You can’t use them, because
they don’t have buttons• They are unreliable,
because the battery last only for 24h hours
• They are too expensive!
And you know the story...
Let’s race!Electric vehicle,
car of the year 2011My current car
EVs are small! Really?
4445mm
Where can I fill up the tank?
Now:At homeAt summerhouseIn future:At home/summerhouseAt officeAt parking houseAt supermarket
Now:At gas station
In future:At gas station
Range test: how far can I drive with 1EUR?
13km
13km
13km
13km
4km
Price test
Price for me: 18 000 EUR
Elegance 1.4TSI
Government pays 18 000 EUR
Price for me: 18 000 EUR
What should I do?
Somewhere here is my future...
Thank you!