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LearningAnalyticsCommunityExchangewww.laceproject.eu
“VisionsoftheFuture“,HorizonReportPublicDeliverable–D3.2
Deliverable Coordinator: DaiGriffiths
Coordinating Institutions: UniversityofBolton,TheOpenUniversity,UK
Datedue:31December2015(+fiveweeksextension)
Keywords:LACE,visions,future,2025,desirability,feasibility,action
Abstract:ThisdocumentreportsonaPolicyDelphistudy focusedonthestateoflearning analytics in 2025. The study centred on eight visions of thefuture,whichwereratedandcommentedonbyexpertsintermsoftheirdesirability,feasibilityandrequirementsforaction.
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HighlightsThisreportdescribestheVisionsof theFutureofLearningAnalyticsstudycarriedoutbytheLACEproject. Eight visions of the future of learning analyticswere developed by the LACE project, andthese were the basis of consultations with the learning analytics community. The principalinstrumentusedwas a SurveyMonkey survey, includingboth Likert scale and free text responses.The survey attracted 103 responses from invited experts and LACE contacts. Consultations withstakeholdershavealsobeencarriedoutinfacetofacemeetings.
Theresultswereanalysedinthreeways:
1. ChartsoftheLikertscalescores2. AnalysisoftheindividualvisionsinthelightoftheLikertscoresandthefreetextcomments
providedbyrespondents3. Thematicanalysisofthecorpusoffreetextcommentsfromallvisions.
Highlightsofthefindingsinclude:
1. ThereisalotofenthusiasmforLearningAnalytics,butconcernthatitspotentialwillnotbefulfilled
2. Policiesandinfrastructurearenecessarytostrengthentherightsofthedatasubject.Interoperabilityspecificationsandopeninfrastructuresareanenablingtechnology.
3. Learninganalyticsshouldnotimplyautomationofteachingandlearning.4. Issuesofsocialandpoliticalpower,ethics,andownershiparecentralfactorstothefutureof
learninganalytics5. Thereissomedisagreementbetweeneducationalsectors,raisingthepossibilityshouldbe
consideredthatasocio-technicaleliteisproposingsystemsandmethodsthatarenotentirelywelcomedbypractitionersinthefield.
6. Thenecessaryunderlyingtechnologyisalreadyavailable,andwillcontinuetodevelop.
ReadingguideThepurposeanddesignofthestudyisdescribedinSection1.
Thedetailedresultsarediscussedinsections2&3,andadditionalchartsareprovidedinappendix1.Theanalysishasbeenkeptasconciseaspossible,butinevitablythesesectionsincludeaconsiderableamountofdetail.Somereadersmaywishtoskimorskipthesesectionsonafirstreading,andmovestraighttoSection4,Conclusions.
TheConclusionssectionsummarisesthefindingsofsections2&3,contraststhem,andconsiderstheirimplications.Thesectionsmakesfrequentreferencetothedetailedanalysis,andinterestedreaderscanreferbacktospecificsectionsreferenced.
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Contents1. Introduction...................................................................................................................................4
1.1. Theneedtounderstandwherecurrenttrendsareleading....................................................4
1.2. Methodology...........................................................................................................................4
1.3. Theworkcarriedout...............................................................................................................6
2. DiscussionoftheLikertscaleresults,relatedtofreetextresponses..........................................10
2.1. Vision1:In2025,classroomsmonitorthephysicalenvironmenttosupportlearningandteaching...........................................................................................................................................11
2.2. Vision2:In2025,personaldatatrackingsupportslearning.................................................13
2.3. Vision3:In2025,analyticsarerarelyusedineducation......................................................15
2.4. Vision4:In2025,individualscontroltheirowndata............................................................17
2.5. Vision5:In2025,opensystemsforlearninganalyticsarewidelyadopted..........................19
2.6. Vision6:In2025,learninganalyticssystemsareessentialtoolsofeducationalmanagement 21
2.7. Vision7:In2025,mostteachingisdelegatedtocomputers................................................23
2.8. Vision8:In2015,analyticssupportself-directedlearning...................................................25
3. Themesthatemergedfromthedata...........................................................................................27
3.1. Theme:Affect........................................................................................................................28
3.2. Theme:Alienation.................................................................................................................28
3.3. Theme:Complexity................................................................................................................30
3.4. Theme:Cost...........................................................................................................................31
3.5. Theme:Ethics........................................................................................................................32
3.6. Theme:Experience................................................................................................................32
3.7. Theme:Pedagogy..................................................................................................................34
3.8. Theme:Power.......................................................................................................................35
3.9. Theme:Privacy......................................................................................................................36
3.10. Theme:Regulation..............................................................................................................37
3.11. Theme:Standards...............................................................................................................38
3.12. Theme:Temporality............................................................................................................39
3.13. Theme:Validity...................................................................................................................40
4. Conclusions..................................................................................................................................42
4.1. Differingjudgementsondesirabilityandfeasibility..............................................................42
4.2. Judgementsontheeightvisions,andtheirimplications......................................................43
4.3. Therangeofthemesinformingthejudgementsonthevisions............................................46
4.4. Overallfindings......................................................................................................................47
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5. FutureSteps.................................................................................................................................52
Referencelist.......................................................................................................................................53
Appendices..........................................................................................................................................54
Appendix1.GraphicalrepresentationoftheLikertscaleresults....................................................54
Appendix2:Codingsummarychart.................................................................................................60
Appendix3:VisionsoftheFuture....................................................................................................61
Appendix4:Informationforparticipants........................................................................................63
About...................................................................................................................................................65
ListoffiguresFigure1:Vision1desirabilityandfeasibility.......................................................................................11Figure2:Vision2desirabilityandfeasibility.......................................................................................13Figure3:Vision3desirabilityandfeasibility.......................................................................................15Figure4:Vision4desirabilityandfeasibility.......................................................................................17Figure5:Vision5desirabilityandfeasibility.......................................................................................19Figure6:Vision6desirabilityandfeasibility.......................................................................................21Figure7:Vision7desirabilityandfeasibility.......................................................................................23Figure8:Vision2desirabilityandfeasibility.......................................................................................25Figure9:Disparityinattitudestodesirabilityandfeasibility..............................................................42Figure10:Respondentsknowledgeoflearninganalytics...................................................................54Figure11:Respondentsbysector.......................................................................................................54Figure12:Alldesirabilitydata.............................................................................................................55Figure13:Allfeasibilitydata...............................................................................................................55Figure14:Desirabilitydatachartedbysector.....................................................................................56Figure15:Feasibilitydatachartedbysector.......................................................................................57Figure16:Desirabilitydatachartedbyrespondents(respondedtodirect/general)invitation..........58Figure17:Feasibilitydatachartedbyrespondents(respondedtodirect/general)invitation............59
ListoftablesTable1:Overviewofthevisions(seeAppendix1:VisionsoftheFutureforthetextinfull)................6Table2:Themesthatemergedfromthedata.....................................................................................27Table3:Summarytableoftheapplicationofcodes,withkeywords.................................................46Table4:Numberofapplicationsofcodesinthe8visions..................................................................60
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1. Introduction
1.1. TheneedtounderstandwherecurrenttrendsareleadingTheLAK15conferenceinPoughkeepsieendedwithapanelthatconsideredthecurrentstateofthefield.Fourinternationalexperts–fromEurope,NorthAmericaandAustralasia–discussedthecurrentpositionoflearninganalyticsandfuturepossibilities.
SimonBuckinghamShumnotedthattheLAKcommunitymustmoveonfrombuildinganalyticsfortheschoolsanduniversityof2015andstarttodesignthefabricofanalyticsin2025.
Thefutureof learninganalyticsdependstoa largeextentonthepolicyadoptedby institutionsandgovernments.Itspracticewillbegreatlyshapedbytheregulatoryframeworkwhichisestablished,theinvestment decisions made, the infrastructure and specifications which are promoted, and theeducationaldiscourse.(BuckinghamShum2015)
Thisisnosmallchallenge,inpartbecausethetechnologywithwhichweworkischangingsofast.“Typically,wefindthatthedoublingtimefordifferentmeasures–price-performance,bandwidth,capacity–ofthecapabilityofinformationtechnologyisaboutoneyear”(Kurzweil2005,p.4)Communitiesarebecomingmoreconnected,pedagogiesarechanging,andeducatorsarelookingfornewwaystoengagestudents.Somealreadybelievethat‘existingsolutionsdon’taddressthemosturgentneedsineducation’(USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofEducationalTechnology2015,p.6).Thefastpaceofchangemeansthatif,inApril2006,wehadbegundevelopinglearninganalyticsfor2016,wemightnothaveplannedspecificallyforlearningwithandthroughsocialnetworks(TwitterwaslaunchedinJuly2006),withsmartphones(thefirstiPhonewasreleasedin2007),orlearningatscale(thetermMOOCwascoinedin2008).However,byconsultingwithexperts,wemighthavecomeprettyclosebytakingintoaccountexistingworkonnetworkedlearning(Goodyearetal.2004),mobilelearning(Sharples2000)andconnectivism(Siemens2005).
Itisimportantthatthelearninganalyticscommunitylookstothefuture,becausethefutureofthefieldwilldependtoalargeextent,asBuckinghamShumnoted,onpoliciesadoptedbyexternalbodies.Itspracticewillbemouldedbyregulatoryframeworksthatareestablishedexternally,theinvestmentdecisionsmadebyothers,theinfrastructureandspecificationsthatarepromotedacrosstheworld,andtheeducationaldiscoursethatisemployed.Bydevelopingaclearviewofwhatisdesirableandfeasibleinthefuture–andwhatweneedtoavoid–wecanequipourselvestomakepolicyrecommendations,toadvisefunders,andtotakealeadingroleinshapingtheframeworks,theinfrastructure,thespecificationsandthediscoursewithwhichweshallbeworking.
Tomeetthisneedunderstandwhatisdesirableandfeasible,theLACEprojecthasundertakenaPolicyDelphi.AsstatedintheDOW(p.12),thisworkseeksto“drawoutdifferencesofperceptionandvisionfromagroupofresearcherandpractitionerexpertsdrawnfromourliaisonorganisationsandfrompeoplewhohaveparticipatedinouractivities.Thiswillconsiderviewsonwhatisdesirable,whatisfeasibleandtheobstaclestomakingwhatisdesirablehappen.”
1.2. Methodology
1.2.1. Whatisa‘PolicyDelphi’TheoriginsoftheDelphimethodaredescribedbytheRandCorporation:
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RANDdevelopedtheDelphimethodinthe1950s,originallytoforecasttheimpactoftechnologyonwarfare. The method entails a group of experts who anonymously reply to questionnaires andsubsequently receive feedback in the form of a statistical representation of the "group response,"after which the process repeats itself. The goal is to reduce the range of responses and arrive atsomethingclosertoexpertconsensus.(RANDCorporationn.d.).
Furtherdetailsareavailablein(Helmer-Hirschberg1967).TheunderlyingassumptionsoftheDelphimethodarethatgroupjudgementsaremorevalidthanindividualjudgements,andthataseriesofcoordinatedactivitiescanuncoveragroupjudgement.Thismethod,withincrementalchangesandadditions,isstillappliedtoachieveconsensus.However,amajoroffshootofthemethodwasinstigatedbyTuroffinthe1970s.AsTurofexplains:
Delphias itoriginallywas introducedandpracticedtendedtodealwith technical topicsandseekaconsensus among homogeneous groups of experts. The PolicyDelphi, on the other hand, seeks togeneratethestrongestpossibleopposingviewsonthepotentialresolutionsofamajorpolicy issue.(Turoff&Linstone2002,p.80)
Turoffgoesontoarguethatwhenconfrontedbyaquestionofpolicy,ratherthanofprediction,analysisandresearch“candonomorethansupplyafactualbasisforadvocacy.”Thefuturewilldependonpolicydecisions,andTuroffargues,“thedecisionmakerisnotinterestedinhavingagroupgeneratehisdecision;butrather,haveaninformedgrouppresentalltheoptionsandsupportingevidenceforhisconsideration”(Turoff&Linstone2002,p.80)
Thefutureoflearninganalyticsdependstoalargeextentonthepolicyadoptedbyinstitutionsandgovernments.Itspracticewillbegreatlyshapedbytheregulatoryframeworkwhichisestablished,theinvestmentdecisionsmade,theinfrastructureandspecificationswhicharepromoted,andtheeducationaldiscourse.Consequently,followingtheDOW,theLACEprojectisconductingapolicyDelphi,ratherthanaconsensusDelphi.
Consequently,theLACEPolicyDelphidoesnotseekconsensus,butrathertounderstanddiverseviewsofthepreferredfuture,withthemembersandassociatesoftheLACEprojectfulfillingtheroleofthe‘informedgroup’.
1.2.2. AimsandobjectivesAdaptingthedefinitionofaPolicyDelphiin(Turoff1970)wedefineourinterventionasfollows:
Aim:thesystematicsolicitationandcollationofinformedjudgmentsonlearninganalytics
Objectives:
• Toexploreorexposeunderlyingassumptionsorinformationleadingtodifferingjudgmentsonlearninganalytics
• Tocorrelateinformedjudgmentsonthetopicoflearninganalytics,whichspansawiderangeofdisciplines.
Futureaddressed:Thedateinthefuturewhichourvisionsrelatetois2025,whichcoincideswiththeEUtenderrecentlypassed:2025-2030.
1.2.3. ThedesignofthePolicyDelphiThedesignoftheLACEPolicyDelphiisasfollows.
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1. ThefirstphaseofthePolicyDelphidrawsontheexpertiseofLACEconsortiummemberstodevelopvisionsoflearninganalyticsin2025intheformofshortscenarios.Followingamatrixanalysis,thesevisionsareselectedtoprovidegoodcoveragefor(a)relevancetostakeholders,and(b)theunderlyingthemesoftechnology,privacyandethics,andpedagogy.
2. Thesecondphaseinvolvesanonlinesurveyofdesignatedexperts,andvolunteerswhorespondedtothefocusedpublicitygeneratedbyLACE.TheexpertsaredrawnfromthethreefocusdomainsofapplicationofLACE(schools,highereducation,andtheworkplace)andthethreeprincipalcontributingdiscoursesoflearninganalytics(technology,privacyandethics,pedagogy).
3. Thethirdphasefocusesoninputfromstakeholders.Followinganalysisofearlierresults,thescenarioswiththeirdesirabilityandfeasibilityratingsaresharedwithstakeholders,whoaddedtheirresponses.Theresultsofthisphasefedintoananalysisofwhatisfeasibleanddesirable,andofwhatwouldneedtochangetomakeanyofthesevisionsareality.
4. Thefinalphaseisstrategicanalysisoffindings.Thisisdesignedtoclarifyanydisagreementsbetweenexpertsandthestakeholders,andtoidentifygapsbetweencurrentinfrastructureandpracticeandthosethatwillberequiredforthefuture.Itwillalsoidentifythedriverswhichareimpliedbytheresponsestothevisions.Thepresentreportpresentsthesefindings.
1.3. Theworkcarriedout
1.3.1. DevelopmentofthevisionsTheexpertisewithintheprojectwasmobilisedtoidentifyarangevisionswhichreflectedthewidevarietyofopinionsabouthowlearninganalyticswilldevelop.Followingamatrixanalysis,thesevisionswerecutdowninnumber,followingtwocriteria:(a)toidentifythemeswhichwouldberelevanttotherangeofexpertstakeholderswhowereourtargetpopulation,and(b)toincludeagoodcoverageoftheunderlyingareasoftechnology,privacyandethics,andpedagogywhichhaveemergedaskeythemesintheLACEproject.Thetitlesaregiveninthefollowingtable,andthefulltextsofthefinalvisionsareprovidedinAppendix1.
Table1:Overviewofthevisions(seeAppendix1:VisionsoftheFutureforthetextinfull)
No. Visiontitle1 In2025,classroomsmonitorthephysicalenvironmentto
supportlearningandteaching2 In2025,personaldatatrackingsupportslearning3 In2025,analyticsarerarelyusedineducation4 In2025,individualscontroltheirowndata5 In2025,opensystemsforlearninganalyticsarewidely
adopted6 In2025,learninganalyticssystemsareessentialtoolsof
educationalmanagement7 In2025,mostteachingisdelegatedtocomputers8 In2025,analyticssupportself-directedautonomous
learning
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Thevisionswerealsosubstantiallyreducedinlength,tomakeiteasierforrespondentstoengagewiththeprocess.Thevisionswhichwereselectedwerecuttingedgebutalsonotfar-fetched.Theeightscenariosthatweredevelopedinthisprocessformedthebasisforallsubsequentphases.
1.3.2. DevelopmentofanonlinesurveyAnonlinesurveywasdesignedusingSurveyMonkey.Itwasconsideredthatitwouldbetoogreataburdentoaskrespondentstoreadandcommentonalleightvisions.Itwasthereforedecidedtopresentthevisionstotheexpertsinrandomorder.Aftereachvisiontherespondentwasaskediftheywerewillingtoansweranother.Itwasrequestedthateachrespondentshouldaddressatleastthreevisions.
Therespondentswereaskedtwoquestionsaboutthemselves:
1) Howwellinformedareyouaboutlearninganalyticsintermsof• Learningtechnology• Analyticsandmachinelearning• Ethicalissues• Pedagogyandprofessionalpractice
2) Whichsectorsofeducationhaveyouworkedin?Pleasetickallthatapply.• Schools• Workplace• HigherEducation
Respondentswerethenaskedtoassesseachvisionintermsofitsfeasibility,itsdesirability,andthestepswhichwouldberequiredinordertomakeitareality.Standardquestionswereaskedforeachvision:
Likertscale:Howdesirableisthisvision?Pleasegiveyouransweronascalefrom(1)to(4)
Likertscale:Howfeasibleisthisvision?Pleasegiveyouransweronascalefrom(1)to(4)
(Participantsweregiventheoptionofselecting‘Idonotfeelqualifiedtorespond’insteadofratingdesirabilityorfeasibility).
Freetext:Inthelightofthescoreyouhavegivenfordesirable----undesirable,whatactionsdoyouthinkshouldbetaken?Forexampletheremaybelegal,policy,technicalorotherdevelopmentswhichyouthinkareneededtomakethisvisionareality,ortopreventithappening.Pleasedescribetheinitiativeswhicharenecessary,andwhoshouldtakethem.
RespondentswerealsoinvitedtomakefreetextcommentsontheirLikertscaleresponses.
1.3.3. InformationprovidedtoparticipantsParticipantsweregivenafullexplanationofthepurposeofthestudyandhowtheirdatawouldbeusedbeforecommencingthestudy.ThistextisavailableinAppendix4:Informationforparticipants.Respondentswerealsoofferedtheopportunitytostatethattheydidnotwanttheirfreetextinputtobequoted.
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1.3.4. PopulationThepopulationofrespondentswasdrawnfromtwogroups.FirstlyexpertsweredesignatedbytheLACEwork-packagesdealingwithSchools,WorkplaceandHigherEducation,payingattentiontothethreeprincipalcontributingdiscoursesoflearninganalyticsinLACE(technology,privacyandethics,pedagogy).TheLACEAssociatePartnerswereallincludedinthisexpertgroup.SecondlyvolunteersweresolicitedinpublicitygeneratedontheLACEwebsiteandtheLACEnewsletter.Atotalof193designatedexpertsweresentemailswithdirectlinkstothesurvey,whichenabledtheteamtokeeptrackoftheproportionofresponseswhichweremadebyinvitedexperts,andtocontrasttheirinput.
1.3.5. ResponseIntotal133peoplestartedtheprocessofansweringthequestionnaire.Ofthese103respondedtoatleastonevision.Thenumberofcompleteresponsestovisionswas487,anaverageof3.6perrespondent(comparedwiththerequested3.0perrespondent).
1.3.6. ConsultationwithstakeholdersDirectconsultationwithstakeholdershasalreadytakenplaceatanumberofevents.
• SolarFlare,OpenUniversityoftheUK,• InstitutionalReadinessDayforLearningAnalyticsTechnologies• OnderwijsdagemEducationDays,Rotterdam,Netherlands.• BETT,LondonUK
1.3.7. AnalysisThedatawasdownloadedfromSurveyMonkeyasCommaSeparatedValues,andanalysedusingaspreadsheet.Thoserespondentswhodidnotwanttobequotedwerehighlighted.
Theintentionoftheanalysiswasnottousethedatatodetermineanorderoflikelihoodforthe8visions,butrathertoidentifythedrivers,issuesandconcernswhichexpertsbelievewillconditionthefutureefficacyoflearninganalytics.Becauseofthisastatisticalapproachwasnotappropriate.
TheresultsoftheLikertdatawereusedtogeneratechartsindicatingthedegreeofdesirabilityandfeasibilityascribedtothevisions.Theseweresubdividedbythreesectors(School,Workplace,andHigherEducation),andbysourceofrespondent(invitedexpert,throughtheweblink),andtheresultingchartsareavailableinAppendix1.Theteamthenexaminedthechartstoidentifythebroadattitudesoftherespondentstowardsthevisions,andtohighlightanycontrastsbetweendifferentsubdivisionsofrespondents,orbetweentheresponsestodifferentvisions.
TheLikertchartsforeachvisionwerethencontrastedwithfreetextresponsestothatvision,inordertoachieveamorenuancedviewofrespondents’attitudes.
Inordertoachieveamoreglobalunderstandingoftherespondents’viewsoftheissuesdrivingthedevelopmentoflearninganalytics,thedataforalleightvisionswascumulated,andthefreetextentrieswerecodedaccordingtothirteenthemes.Thesethemesweredevelopedbyfourresearchersinaday-longworkingsession.Theyfirstcollaboratedinthecodingofthefreetextresponsesfor‘desirability’,‘feasibility’and‘necessaryactions’forasinglevision,thenreviewedtheresultingcodesandmergingthemwhereappropriate,andfinallyindividuallycodedtheremainingdatawhile
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conferringonanydoubtswhichtheyencountered.Thecodingwasnon-exclusive,i.e.eachtextcouldbeassignedmorethanonecode.Thetextsassociatedwitheachcodewerethencompiled,anddistributedtotheresearchers,whowereindividuallyassignedthetaskofsummarisinganumberofthemes.TheresultsofthisprocessareavailableinSection3.
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2. DiscussionoftheLikertscaleresults,relatedtofreetextresponsesInthissectionwebrieflydiscussthepersonalinformationprovidedbytherespondents.WethencontrasttheLikertscaleresultsforeachvision,andinterpretthemwithreferencetothefreetextresponsesprovidedforthatvision.
TheVisionsoftheFuturestudywasdirectedatexperts,andsoweshouldnotbesurprisedtofindthattherespondentsingeneralassessedthedegreetowhichtheyare‘wellinformedaboutlearninganalytics’asbeinghigh.Thereportedknowledgeof‘analyticsandmachinelearning’waslowerthanforanyothercategory,althougheveninthiscaseamajoritystillconsideredthemselves‘wellinformed’or‘verywellinformed’.Thissuggeststhatmanyofthoseworkingwithlearninganalyticsdonothaveastrongworkingknowledgeoftheunderlyingmethodswhicharebeingused.Learninganalyticsisafieldwhichbringstogethereducationalistsandtechnologists(Suthers&Verbert2013),anditistobeexpectedthateducationalistsfindsomeaspectsoftheworkofthetechnologiststobeopaque.
Thegreatmajorityofrespondentshadexperienceofhighereducation.Notethatthetotalofresponsesisgreaterthan100%becauserespondentswereabletoclaimexperienceofmorethanonesector.Thissuggeststhatmanyrespondentshavemovedtohighereducationfromschoolsortheworkplace(orvice-versa).Themuchhigherscoreforhighereducationreflectsthedominanceofthesectorinthedevelopmentoflearninganalyticssystems,andintheproductionofresearchonthedesignanduseoflearninganalyticssystems.
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2.1. Vision1:In2025,classroomsmonitorthephysicalenvironmenttosupportlearningandteaching
2.1.1. Textofvision1In2025,classroomsmonitorthephysicalenvironmenttosupportlearningandteaching
In2015,learninganalyticsweremainlyusedtosupportonlinelearning.By2025,theycanbeusedtosupportmostteachingandlearningactivities,whereverthesetakeplace.Furniture,pens,writingpads–almostanytoolusedduringlearning–canbefittedwithsensors.Thesecanrecordmanysortsofinformation,includingtilt,forceandposition.Videocamerasusingfacialrecognitionareabletotrackindividualsastheylearn.Thesecamerasmonitormovements,andrecordexactlyhowlearnersworkwithandmanipulateobjects.Allthisinformationisusedtomonitorlearners’progress.Individualsaresupportedinlearningawiderangeofphysicalskills.Teachersarealertedtosignsofindividuallearner’sboredom,confusion,anddeviationfromtask.Teachersandmanagersareabletomonitorsocialinteractions,andtoidentifywheretheyshouldnurturesocialisationandcooperativebehaviour.
2.1.2. Likertscaleresults
Figure1:Vision1desirabilityandfeasibility
TheLikertscaleresultsforthisvisionshowthatamajorityofrespondentsfoundittobeundesirable,andthatovertwiceasmanyfoundittobe‘veryundesirable’thanfoundit‘verydesirable’.Asregardsfeasibility,however,amajorityofrespondentsdescribedthevisionasbeingfeasibleorveryfeasible.Thissuggestsaconcernthattheavailabilityoftechnologymayleadtheeducationsystemintomakingchangeswhicharenotpedagogicallyappropriate.
Thisvisionisclearlyaimedattheschoolclassroom,andtheresultsshowthatrespondentsfromschoolsweresubstantiallymorepositiveintheirassessmentofthevisionthanwerethosefromhighereducationortheworkplace.
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Respondentstotheweblinkwereonbalanceagainstthevision,andalmosttwiceasmanyrespondentstotheweblinkfoundthevisiontobe‘veryundesirable’thandidinvitedexperts,raisingthepossibilitythattheremaybeagapinunderstandingbetweenexpertsandpractitionersontheground.
2.1.3. FreetextresponsesFreetextcommentsonthedesirabilityofthisvisionfocusedontwoareas:theefficacyofthepedagogicintervention,andthesocialandethicalconsequences.23commentswerenegative,11ambivalent,andonly9favourable,suggestingthatitwasmainlythosewhofoundthevision‘veryundesirable’thatweremotivatedtocomment.Thestrengthoftheircommentsalsosuggeststhattheymightbewillingtoactivelyresisttheimplementationofsuchsystems.Negativecommentsincluded“veryintrusive”,“justridiculous”,“BigBrotherscenario”,“lossofhumanity”,“TherealfuelofLearningismotivationandvolition,whichyoucannotcapturewithexternalsensors”,etc.
Somerespondentsbelievedthatthestateoftheartinpervasivecomputingshowthatthisvisionisfeasible,andthatdevelopmentsrelatedtotheInternetofThingsandQuantifiedSelfmovementswilldrivepricesdownsoby2025makingthisvisionverylikelytooccur.Otherrespondentswereoftheopinionthatalthoughthetechnologyforgatheringthenecessarydatacouldbeavailableby2025,thereisdoubtastowhetherdataprocessingalgorithmswhichcanproducevalidandreliableconclusionsrelevanttoeducationwillbedeliveredby2015.Concernswereraisedaboutthecosttoinstitutionsandorganisationsofequippingclassroomswiththenecessarytechnology,andthecapacityandcapabilityofteacherstodigestandreacttothedata,meaningthisapproachwouldbedifficulttoimplementatscale.Questionsrelatingtopeoples’attitudestobeingcloselymonitoredwereraised,e.g.howwouldthisapproachworkifsomelearners(orparents)orteacherswereabletorefusetohavetheirdatacollected?Moregenerally,itmaybehumanfactors,rulesandregulationsthatcouldaffectthetimescaleandeaseofimplementationofthisvision.
Asregardstheactionsthatneedtobetaken,respondentsgenerallyindicatedthattherequiredunderlyingtechnologywaseitheralreadyavailableorwouldsoonbecomeso.Requiredactionsrelatedtothetwoprincipalconcernsexpressedindesirability.Firstlymanycommentsindicatedthatresearchisneededtodemonstrateifandhowthisapproachtolearningandteachingiseffective.Secondly,manycommentsrequestedprotocols,regulationsorlegislationtogovernethicsandprivacy.
2.1.4. KeywordsCommercialpressure,efficacy,ethicsprivacy,funding,pedagogic,policy,reliability,scalability,validity.
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2.2. Vision2:In2025,personaldatatrackingsupportslearning
2.2.1. Textofvision2In2025,personaldatatrackingsupportslearning
In2015,peoplewerebeginningtoweardevicessuchasheart-ratemonitorsandrun-trackersastheywentabouttheirdailylives.By2025,sophisticatedsensorscangatherpersonalinformationaboutfactorssuchasposture,attention,rest,stress,bloodsugar,andmetabolicrate.Peoplecollectthisinformationabouttheiractivities,andfeeditintoprogrammesoftheirchoicethatproviderecommendationsonhowtoactinwaysthatimprovetheirlearning.Learnerscandownloadthestatisticsanddatathatareassociatedwithsuccessfullearninginacertainarea.Aligningpersonaldatawiththese‘ideal’setsisclaimedtohelppeopletomasterskillsasdiverseasswimming,driving,carryingoutsurgeryandpassingexaminations.Academicstarssellprogrammesusingthisdatatooptimiselearningfordifferentagesandcourses.Businessgurusmarketsimilarprogrammesfortopicssuchaspresentationskillsandworkloadmanagement.Somelearnerscreateandsharetheirowndataanalysisprogrammes,whichproviderecommendationsthatoftenincludetheconsumptionofhigh-energyfoodsandstimulants.Themajorityofhigh-schoolanduniversitystudentsfollowself-monitoringprogrammes,anddiscussthemeritsoftheseonsocialmedia.
2.2.2. Likertscaleresults
Figure2:Vision2desirabilityandfeasibility
ThepatternofresultsforVision2issimilartothatforVision1:thevisionisconsideredtobefeasible,butrespondentsareambivalentaboutitsdesirability,withaslightmajorityfindingittobeundesirable.Theresponsesfromthethreesectorsarebroadlysimilar,asaretheresponsesfrominvitedexpertsandweblinkrespondents.
2.2.3. FreetextresponsesThefreetextresponsesalsoechoedthecommentsmadeonVision1,withafocusontheefficacyofthepedagogicintervention,andthesocialandethicalconsequences.Thenumberoffreetextresponseswasslightlylower,with5positivecomments,11ambivalent,and18negative.Giventhat
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privacyisamajorconcerninbothvisions,itiscoherenttosuggestthatdatagatheringbytheindividualwasseenasmoreacceptablethandatagatheringbytheinstitution,andthatthismadetheresponsemilder.Indeedonecommentexplicitlystated“Iamneutralonthis,butwarmtoitmuchmorethan#1becauseusersappeartohavecontroloverthemonitoringanduseofthedata”.However,oneusercommentedthat“thevisionfailstomentionwhoownsthedata”,whileothersmentionedthepotentialmisuseofdata.Otherswereconcernedatthe“lossoffreewill”,andthat“soundslikewearerobotscontrolledbyouralgorithmicoverlords.
Thepositivecommentsondesirabilitymostlymentionedthepedagogicbenefitswhichcouldbegained,withmention,forexample,ofachievingpersonalisedlearning,and“improvingthesuccessandimpactoflearning”.Thesewerebalancedbyalargernumberofnegativecomments,forexamplereferringto“snakeoil”,andtheundesirabilityofsubstitutingphysicalforconativeindicators.Therewerealargernumberofcommentswhichtookanuancedviewofdesirability,whencomparedwithVision1.Theserecognisedthepotentialofmonitoringpersonalperformance,butraisedconcernsabouttheinterpretationofthedata,oritsethicaluse.
Somerespondentssaidthatpersonaldatatrackinginitiativesarecurrentlyrunning,butonasinglemeasure,andnotcombinedwithothermeasuresintosuchabigvisionaryconcept,andthattheavailabilityofproductsusingoneormoremeasuresislikelyby2025.Othersfeltthatalthoughtechnologycapableofacquiringthedatadescribedislikelytobeavailablein2025,doubtsaboutbeingabletousethisdataoptimiselearningwereraised.Therewereconcernsthatpersonaldatatrackingasdescribedinthevisionwouldhavelimitedeffect,becauseitignoresconstraintsonlearningwhichmayhavemoreimpact:pressuresofwork,family,sociallife;lackofintrinsicmotivation;makingcurriculasufficientlyrelevanttopeople'slives,andotherfactorswhichdrawindividuals’attentionawayfromtheirlearning.Otherconcernsincludedthedevelopmentandsuccessfulmarketingofproductsakintothoseinthevision,butbasedonpoorresearchandspuriousstatistics,resultinginnegativefeedbackwhenmarketingclaimsarenotmatchedbyrealchangesinperformance.
TheactionsrequiredtomakethevisionarealitywerealsosimilartothoseforVision1.Nomentionwasmadeofaneedtodeveloptheunderlyingtechnology.Researchintothepedagogicpotentialofthesemethodswasrequestedinordertocreateastrongerevidencebase.Theneedtoregulatedatamanagement,andprivacypolicies,werealsomentioned.
2.2.4. KeywordsEthics,learningoutcomes,motivation,pedagogy,personalisation,privacy,profit,reliability.
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2.3. Vision3:In2025,analyticsarerarelyusedineducation
2.3.1. Textofvision3In2025,analyticsarerarelyusedineducation
In2015,manypeoplehopedthatanalyticswouldbeabletoimproveteachingandlearningandtheenvironmentswherethesetakeplace.However,in2025,itisclearthattherearemanyproblems.Coursesthatareautomatedbyanalyticsareseenasinferior,andlearnershaverealisedthattheycangamethesystem.Therehavebeenmajorleaksofsensitivepersonaldata,anditisclearthat,evenwherethishasnothappened,manycompanieshavemisusedthedatageneratedbytheiranalytics.Manygovernmentshaveruledthatindividualsarethesoleownersofthedatatheygenerate.Alluseofdataforeducationalpurposesnowhastobeapprovednotonlybythelearnerbutalsobynewinspectorates.Inpracticethishasmeantthatuseofanalyticsisrestrictedtosummativeassessmentcarriedoutbygovernmentagencies.Aconsensushasemergedineducationalpolicy:themoveawayfromlearninganalyticsisnotonlyethicallydesirableitisalsoeducationallyeffective.
2.3.2. Likertscaleresults
Figure3:Vision3desirabilityandfeasibility
TheLikertscaleresultsshowthatalargemajorityofrespondentsviewedtheideathatlearninganalyticswouldberarelyusedin2025asextremelyundesirable,withonly1personviewingitasdesirable(andinthiscasetheratingwasqualifiedbyafreetextcommentstatingthattheratingassumedthat‘learninganalyticshadbecomecorruptoruntrustworthy’).Ontheotherhandthishighlyundesirableoutcomewasseenbymanyasbeingfeasible,withaslightmajorityviewingitasbeingfeasibleorveryfeasible.
2.3.3. FreetextresponsesIntheirfreetextresponsesondesirability,respondentsmadecleartheirsupportforanalyticsmakingcommentssuchas“Educatorshavealwayscollectedandused‘data’”,“Don'tthrowawaytheentirefieldbecauseofsomemistakesanderrors!”and“Ithinkitismadnesstohavelotsofdata
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andnotuseit”.Somerespondentstooktheopportunitytoexplainthattheirsupportforlearninganalyticswasconditional,withstatementssuchas“Myidealscenarioiswherehumanteachersuselearninganalyticsethicallyandprofessionallytoenhancelearningdesignandunderstandlearning”,and“Thecasesofmisuseofdataarepossible,buttherisksareminimalcomparedtothepotentialofbetterstudentpersonalization.”
Somethoughtthisvisionisnotfeasiblebecauselearninganalyticsarealreadyinfluencingandimprovingeducationpracticeandpolicyinapositiveway.Also,inseveralotherfieldsanalyticsisusedsuccessfully(e.g.professionalsports),andlessonscanbelearnedfromhowithasbecomeimplementedandembeddedintopractice.Othersthoughtitunlikelyasinstitutionshavecollectedandmanagedsensitivedataabouttheirlearnersformanyyearswithoutdisastersoccurring,andtherearenosignsthattheriskofleakshasrisen,orthattherehasbeenagreatincreaseinthesensitivityofthedata.Somerespondentsopinedthatalthoughthevisionmayoccurinsomecontextsinwhichlearninganalyticsisimplemented‘badly’orwhereethicalorlegalconcernsimpingeonlearninganalyticsbeingused,itisunlikelytohappenglobally.Insomecasesthereactionofthepopularmediamaybeveryinfluential.
Theactionsrecommendedbyrespondentsintheirfreetextcommentsfocusedontwoprincipalareas.Firstly,policyfordataprivacyandappropriateuse,withmanyrequestsformoreeffectiveregulation(althoughonerespondentarguedthatinafreemarketnoactionwasrequired).Fourcommentsmadethecogentpointthattobeeffective,policieshavetobeimplementedinthesystemsandtoolsusedinlearninganalytics,andthatthisimpliestheneedforstandardswithteeth.Giventhelownumberofrespondentswithdeeptechnicalknowledgeoflearninganalytics,itmaybearguedthatmoreattentionshouldbeplacedonthispointthantherelativelysmallnumberofcommentssuggests.Secondly,respondentsassertedtheneedtogenerateanddemonstratepedagogicbenefits.Somementionedtheneedtofocusonstudentcentrededucation,andthepresenceofhumansintheanalyticsprocess.
2.3.4. KeywordsCommercialinterests,ethics,governmentcontrolofdata,infrastructure,pedagogicbenefits,policy,privacy,regulation,usercontrol.
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2.4. Vision4:In2025,individualscontroltheirowndata
2.4.1. Textofvision4In2025,individualscontroltheirowndata
In2015,itwasnotclearwhoownededucationaldata,anditwasoftenusedwithoutlearners’knowledge.By2025,mostpeopleareawareoftheimportanceandvalueoftheirdata.Learnerscontrolthetypeandquantityofpersonaldatathattheyshare,andwithwhomtheyshareit.Thisincludesinformationaboutprogress,attendanceandexamresults,aswellasdatacollectedbycamerasandsensors.Learnerscanchoosetolimitthetimeforwhichaccessisallowed,ortheycanrestrictaccesstospecificorganisationsandindividuals.Thetoolsformakingthesechoicesareclearlylaidoutandeasytouse.Inthecaseofchildren,datadecisionsaremadeinconsultationwithparentsorcarers.Iftheydonotengagewiththesetools,thennodataissharedandnobenefitsgained.Mosteducationalinstitutionsrecognisethisasapotentialproblem,andruncampaignstoraiseawarenessoftheboththerisksofthoughtlessexposureofdata,andthebenefitstolearnersofinformedsharingofselectededucationaldata.
2.4.2. Likertscaleresults
Figure4:Vision4desirabilityandfeasibility
TheLikertscaleresultsforVision4showverystrongsupportfortheideathatlearnersshouldbeabletocontroltheirowndata,withamajorityofrespondentsratingthisas‘verydesirable’.Therespondentsalsoindicatedthatthisvisionwasfeasible,althoughtheresultwaslessclearthanfor‘desirability’(nearly50%ratedthisasa‘3’,ratherthana‘4:veryfeasible’).Theresultsforallthreesectorsweresimilar,althoughschoolsrespondentswerealittlemoreoptimisticaboutthefeasibility,whileworkplacerespondentswerealittleless.Theresultsfortheinvitedexpertsandthosewhoaccessedtheweblinkweresimilar.
2.4.3. FreetextresponsesThefreetextresponsesondesirabilityreflectthestrongLikertscalescoresinfavourofthisvision.Theyalmostallstresstheimportanceofindividualshavinggreatercontroloverthedatathatthey
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generate.Thereareafewdissentingvoices.Threerespondentswereconcernedthatthevisionwouldpreventlearninganalyticsfromfulfillingitspotential,asonesaidit“GreatlylimitsourabilitytoeffectivelyuselearninganalyticstoimprovelearningforALLstudents”.InthistheyareechoingthepositiontakenbythecodesofpracticeforlearninganalyticspublishedbyJisc(Sclater2014)andOUUK(TheOpenUniversity2014),whichusethisargumentinfavouroftheinstitutionmakinguseofalleducationaldata,withoutexplicitpermissionfromstudents.
Althoughmanytypesofdatawillberoutinelycaptured,feasibilityofthisisbasedonovercomingsignificantsocialandpoliticalhurdles.Althoughitisfeasibletechnicallytherewillbemanypartieswithconflictingintereststhatwilllobbyagainstfullusercontrolofdata,e.g.commercialandgovernmentinterests.Changesinpolicyandlawwillbenecessary,anditwillbeimpossibletoachieveharmonisedlegislationduetotheeffectofdifferentlegislativeregions.Furthermore,somethoughtitunlikelythatgovernmentsororganisationswouldrelinquishtheircontroloverlearnerdataandmaintainsomerightstodataaspartoftheconditionsofusingtheirservices.Somethoughtthateducationandawarenessiskeytothisvision,inthattheuserpopulationneedabetterunderstandingofthevalueofpersonaldatafortheirownbenefitaswellasthatoforganisations,andtobeactivelyengagedwithprivacyanddatacontrolissues.
Intermsoftheactionswhicharenecessary,mostcommentsaffirmedtheneedforrulesandpoliciesaboutthemanagementofpersonaldata.Anumberofcommentsexpressedtheconcernthatcommercialpressurewouldmakethevisionimpossible,forexample“Idoubtthough,thatitissofeasible.Therewillalwaysbepeople/companies/etc.tryingtomakeuseofotherpeople'sdataforcommercialreasons”.Afewcommentsassertedtheneedfordatasecuritystandardsandprivacystandards,andthetoolswhichcouldmakethisareality.Oneoftherespondentswhowasconcernedaboutthisvisionpreventinglearninganalyticsfromachievingitspotentialsuggestedthatinstitutionsshould“MakepoliciesaboutUSEnotcollection.Withclear,consistent&transparentpoliciesaboutuse,peoplewillnotbeasconcernedaboutcollection.”
2.4.4. KeywordsCommercialpressures,governmentcontrol,legislation,pedagogicbenefits,privacy,regulation,usercontrol.
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2.5. Vision5:In2025,opensystemsforlearninganalyticsarewidelyadopted
2.5.1. Textofvision5In2025,opensystemsforlearninganalyticsarewidelyadopted
In2015,companiesproducedarangeoflearninganalyticstools,usingdifferentapproachesandstandards.Thealgorithmsandmodelsthatcompaniesuseareoftenprotectedasintellectualproperty.By2025,the‘openlearninganalytics’establishedbytheOpenLearningAnalyticsFoundationhasmadeamorejoined-upapproachpossible.EducationalorganisationsseelearninganalyticsasacentralelementoftheirITprovision.Theydemandcontroloverthesetools,howtheyrunandwhattheyareusedfor.Thetoolstheyselect,althoughtheycomefromdifferentproviders,useopenalgorithmsandsharedataaccordingtoanagreedsetofstandardsthatfacilitatetransparencyandindependentvalidation.Asetofwell-tested,accessibleandstandardisedvisualisationmethodsiscommonlyused,sothatlearnersandteacherscanconfidentlyusearangeoftools.Institutionscaneasilyworkwitharangeofproviderstodesignlearninganalyticssystemsthatsupporttheirstrategicvision.
2.5.2. Likertscaleresults
Figure5:Vision5desirabilityandfeasibility
TheresultsforVision5areverysimilartothoseforVision4.Indeed,whiledataprivacy(Vision4)andopensystems(Vision5)arequiteseparateissues,thereisastrongconnectionthroughtheperceivedabilityofopensystemstoensuretransparencyandaccountabilityindatamanagement.Ofallvisions,thiswastheonewiththehighestproportionofrespondentsratingthevisionas‘highlydesirable’,withnorespondentsratingitas‘highlyundesirable’.
RespondentsweremuchlessconfidentthatVision5wasfeasible,withequalnumbersofrespondentsratingthevisionas‘feasible’and‘notfeasible’,althoughsubstantiallymorerespondentsratedit‘veryfeasible(4)’thantheydid‘notatallfeasible(1)’.Therewasthereforeaconsensusthatthisvisioncouldbeachieved.
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Theresultsfordesirabilitywerealmostidenticalforthethreesectors.Therewas,however,abigdifferencebetweensectorsintheresultsforfeasibility.ForboththeSchoolsectorandtheWorkplacesectorthelargestnumberofrespondentsindicatedthatthevisionwasratherinfeasible(2).InHigherEducation,ontheotherhandthelargestnumberofrespondentsthoughtitfeasible(3),withalargenumberassertingthatitwasveryfeasible(4).ThefactthatthereweremanymorerespondentsfromHigherEducationthanothersectorsmeansthatthisviewprevailsintheoverallresults.Butitwouldbewisetotakenoteofthegreaterbarriersthatareperceivedtoopenlearninganalyticsinschools.
2.5.3. FreetextresponsesThegreatmajorityoffreetextcommentsondesirabilityreaffirmedtheimportanceofopensystems,andtheiressentialroleinlearninganalytics.Therewasfrequentmentionoftheneedforinstitutionstobeabletocontroltheirownsystems,andofthesupportthiscouldofferfortransparencyondatause.Anumbermentionedthatitisimportanttorealisethatopensystemsareentirelycompatiblewithcommercialservicesandproducts.Therewereafewdissentingvoices.Onerespondentassertedthatthis‘restrictsinnovationinthelongrun’,andintheirresponseson‘feasibility’and‘action’mentionedIMSspecificationsasthebestrouteforward.
Asregardsfeasibility,anumberofcommentsindicatedthatvendorshaveaninteresttolock-incustomersandwillworkagainstthevision.Sharingdataforlearninganalyticsrequiresextremelycarefulattentiontoprivacy,problemswhichavendor-specificsolutionscanavoidcompletelybykeepingdatacarefullyprotectedandonlysharingprivacy-neutralanalytics.Also,marketpressureswillpullprovidersindifferentdirections,andalthoughmethodsandprotocolsforsharingareuseful,thestateoftheartwillcontinuetochangemakingthistaskextremelydifficult.Fundingstreams,organisationalandgovernmentpolicychangeswillberequiredtosupportdevelopmentoftheseopentools;althoughitisentirelyfeasibleinatechnicalsensewidespreadimplementationatscalewillstilldependoncost,infrastructure,culturalchangeanddevelopmentofappropriatedatapolicies.
Theactionsrecommendedbyrespondentsintheircommentsincludedpracticalsuggestionsfordevelopmentofcommondatamodelsandstandards,andappropriatepolicies.Somespecificsuggestionswereoffered,forexamplefollowingtheapproachesestablishedbytheApacheFoundation1andbytheInternationalStandardsOrganisationinitstechnicalcommitteeSC36ISO/IECJTC1/SC36Informationtechnologyforlearning,educationandtraining2.Aneedwasalsoidentifiedtodemonstrateopensystemsinaction.
2.5.4. KeywordsCommercialpressures,controlofsystems,funding,marketplace,usercontrolofdata.
1http://www.apache.org/foundation/2http://www.iso.org/iso/iso_technical_committee%3Fcommid%3D45392
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2.6. Vision6:In2025,learninganalyticssystemsareessentialtoolsofeducationalmanagement
2.6.1. Textofvision6In2025,learninganalyticssystemsareessentialtoolsofeducationalmanagement
In2015,companieswerebeginningtodevelopsystemstorecommendresourcesandtopredictoutcomes.By2025,thesesystemsarehighlydeveloped.Awiderangeofdataaboutlearnerbehaviourisusedtogenerategoodquality,real-timepredictionsaboutlikelysuccess.Learners,teachers,managersandpolicymakersallhaveaccesstoliveandaccurateinformationabouthowwellalearnerislikelytodo.Learnersandteachersplantheirworkonthebasisofreliabletoolsthatcanproducedetailedandpersonalisedrecommendationsaboutwhatshouldbedonetoachievethebestlearningoutcomes.Agrowingindustryoffersservicestoinstitutionsandindividuals,advisingonhowtorespondtopredictionsgeneratedbyanalytics,andhowtotakeappropriateactioninthelightofrecommendations.Accuratepredictiveinformationenablesmanagersandpolicymakerstoexpandorcontractlearningprovisionbeforesuccessorfailureisevident:youdon’thavetowaittoseeifacourseisboomingorfailing,withfundingchangeshappeningquickly.
2.6.2. Likertscaleresults
Figure6:Vision6desirabilityandfeasibility
Respondentsfoundthistobeadesirablevision,withthemostpopularchoicebeing‘desirable’(3),followedby‘verydesirable’(4).Verysimilarscoresweregivenforfeasibility.
Thevisionwasseenasmarkedlylessdesirablebyrespondentsfromtheschoolssector,withmorerespondentsfindingit‘notdesirable’(1),than‘verydesirable’(4).Similarlyrespondentsfromtheschoolssectorfoundthevisiontobelessfeasiblethandidothersectors.
Respondentswhoaccessedthesurveythroughtheweblinkfoundthevisiontobesubstantiallymorefeasiblethandidtheinvitedexperts.
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2.6.3. FreetextresponsesThecommentsondesirabilityweremostlysupportiveofthisvision(21comments).Thismightwellbeexpected,as,manywouldpeoplewouldfindthisvisiontobe,inthewordsofonerespondent“thegoalofusinglearninganalytics”.Ontheotherhandasubstantialnumberofrespondentsexpressedambivalence(11responses)becauseofspecificconcernswiththevision,while8expresseddeepconcernwiththepedagogicimplications.
Asregardsfeasibility,somerespondentsthoughtthatthisvisionwasachievablebutnotwithinthe10yeartimescale,duetolackofdatanecessarytoproducereliablepredictors(e.g.scarcityorunavailabilityofhealth,family,motivation,volitiondata).Othersthatitwillnotbedifficulttomeasureandactonmetrics,andthismayhappeninsomecontexts,butsomelearnersmaynotbenefitbecausepredictionswillnotbeuniversallyreliable,orpredictionsmaymeanthatinvestmentinsomegroupsiswithdrawnornotoffered.Somethoughtthatbecauseofthecomplexityofestablishingcausality,thatbusinessandtechnicalcustomisationandflexibilitywillbeimportanttoenablesuccessofthisvision.Itwillalsodependonculturalchangeanddevelopmentofeffectivepoliciesonethics,securityandprivacy,andappropriatebusinessmodelstomeetcostsofimplementation.
Therequiredactionsrecommendedbyrespondentscentredonfourthemes.Firstly,ensuringthatlearninganalyticswasinformedbypedagogy.Secondly,thenecessityforfurtherresearchbecause,asonerespondentputit,“wearestillinthe‘proofofconcept’phase.Thirdly,respondentsexpressedtheneedforinternationalandnationalcollaborationbetweeninstitutions.Fourthly,respondentscommentedontheneedforappropriatepolicies,and,inonecase,forrelieffromregulationwhenexperimenting.
2.6.4. KeywordsPedagogiceffectiveness,policy,prediction,reliability,research,socialimplications,technicaleffectiveness.
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2.7. Vision7:In2025,mostteachingisdelegatedtocomputers
2.7.1. Textofvision7In2025,mostteachingisdelegatedtocomputers
In2015,peoplewerebeginningtoassembledatasetsthatcouldrepresentlearner’sactivities.By2025,theseareusedonalargescaleinteaching,andthishasledtothedevelopmentofenormousdatasetscontaininginformationabouthundredsofthousandsoflearners.Analysingindetailtheprogressofsuchawidevarietyoflearnershasmadeitpossibletoprovidereliableevidence-basedrecommendationsaboutthemostsuccessfulroutestolearning,aswellasidentifyingthelearningmaterialsandapproachesthataremostsuitableforeachindividualateachpointintheirprogress.Theserecommendationsarebetterinformedandmorereliablethanthosethatcanbeproducedbyeventhebest-trainedhumans.Learnersnowspendmostoftheirtimeworkingwithanalytics-drivensystems,andtheroleofteachershasbeenreduced.Theevidencegeneratedbytheuseofthesesystemsdriveseducationpolicy.
2.7.2. Likertscaleresults
Figure7:Vision7desirabilityandfeasibility
Thisvisionwasratedthesecondleastdesirableofallthevisions,aftervision3.Indeed,asvision3wasthenegativevisionthat“analyticsarerarelyusedineducation”,thisvisionconstitutestheleastpopularofallthewaysofusinganalyticsthatwerepresentedtorespondents.Vision7wasconsideredslightlymorefeasiblethanitwasdesirable,butwithamajorityratingiteither‘notfeasible’(4),or‘ratherunfeasible’(3).
Theresultswerelargelysimilarforallthreesectors,butrespondentsfromtheworkplaceweremarkedlystrongerintheirassessmentthatthevisionwasnotfeasible.
Therewaslittledifferencebetweentheinvitedexpertsandrespondentsreachedthroughtheweblink,althoughthelatterfoundthescenariotobealittlelessdesirable.
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2.7.3. FreetextresponsesThemajorityofcommentsondesirabilitystressedtheviewthat,asonerespondentputit,“humansarelearningbestwhentaughtbyhumans”.Someaddedargumentsastowhythiswasthecase,suchasthepaucityofinformationprovidedbybrowsingpatterns,inabilitytoworkwithmeaninginanautomatedway,theneedforhumancollaborationandinspiration,andreductioninthecreativityagencyofthelearner.Afewdissentingvoicessuggestedthattherewerepositiveaspectstothevision.
Asregardsfeasibility,oneviewwasthatthisisnotfeasibleinsomecontexts(e.g.workplacelearning)becausetheproportionofeLearningthatgoesoninthosecontextsisnothighenoughnow,andisnotincreasing,forcomputerdrivenlearningtohavemuchimpact.Anotherviewwasthatwhilstitistechnicallyfeasibleinsomeeducationalcontextsanddisciplines,itwillnotbeinothersasitignoreslearningthroughinteractionswithbothpeersandthewidersocialenvironment,andwhereattitude,skillsandcompetenceslikecreativityarerequiredtoproduceindividualandnovelsolutions.Somewerescepticalthatremovalofhumansfromeducationalcontextswasachievable,e.g.thatahumanteachercouldbebettersupportedbyanalytics(butnotreplaced).Marketing(bycompaniessellingsolutions)andconsiderationofcost-cutting(reductionsinwagebill)couldinfluencehowquicklyanddeeplythisvisionispursued.
Inlinewithcommentsondesirabilityandfeasibility,thegreatmajorityofcommentsonnecessaryactionsemphasisedtheneedtoensuretheparticipationofhumansinteaching,andtounderstand,asonerespondentputit,that“learningtakesplaceinasocio-technicalsystem”.Somerespondentsmentionedtheneedforpolicyandlegislativechecksonintrusiveanalyticssystems.Adissentingcommentsuggestedthatbettercommunicationofthebenefitswouldbevaluable,whileanothersaidthatitwasimportantto“ensurethattheunionsarenotkillingtheseinitiativesbecauseofdataprivacyworries”.
2.7.4. KeywordsCommercialinterests,effectiveness,humanvalues,pedagogy.
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2.8. Vision8:In2015,analyticssupportself-directedlearning
2.8.1. Textofvision8In2025,analyticssupportself-directedautonomouslearning
In2015,learnersineducationalinstitutionsandinbusinesseshadtofollowacurriculumdevelopedbyothers.In2025,theycreategroupsthatworktogethertodecidetheirlearninggoalsandhowtoachievethese.A‘LearningTrajectorySystem’usesanalyticstosupportinformationexchangeandgroupcollaborations,andlearnersreceivesupportfrommentors,ratherthanteachers.Activitytowardsalearninggoalismonitored,andanalyticsprovideindividualswithfeedbackontheirlearningprocess.Thisincludessuggestions,includingpeerlearnerstocontact,expertstoapproach,relevantcontent,andwaysofdevelopinganddemonstratingnewskills.Formativeassessmentisusedtoguidefutureprogress,takingintoaccountindividuals’characteristics,experienceandcontext,replacingexamsthatshowonlywhatstudentshaveachieved.Textsandotherlearningmaterialsareadaptedtosuittheculturalcharacteristicsoflearners,revealedbyanalysisoftheirinteractions.Asaresult,learnersarepersonallyengagedwiththeirtopics,andaremotivatedbytheirhighlyautonomouslearning.Thecompetencesthattheydeveloparevaluableinasocietyinwhichcollectionandanalysisofdataarethenorm.Thereisalsoconvergencebetweenthelearningactivitiesoftheeducationsystemandthemethodsusedbyemployeestodeveloptheirknowledgeandskills.
2.8.2. Likertscaleresults
Figure8:Vision2desirabilityandfeasibility
Thisvisionwasratedthethirdmostpopularintermsofdesirability.Indeed,thetwovisionsratedhigher(4&5)areconcernedwithopeninfrastructureandcontrolofdata,andsovision8isthemosthighlyratedvisionwhichfocusesonthepedagogicapplicationoflearninganalytics.Halfoftherespondentsratedthisvisionas‘verydesirable’(4),withoveraquarterofrespondentsratingit‘desirable’(3).
Respondentsweremorecautiousregardingfeasibility,with‘feasible’(3)themostpopularresponse.
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Thedifferencesbetweenresponsesfromthethreesectorswassmall,butitisworthnotingthat‘schools’and‘workplace’respondentswereasomewhatlessenthusiasticthan‘highereducation’respondents.Similarlytheinvitedexpertsweremorepositiveaboutthevisionthanrespondentsfromtheweblink,inbothdesirabilityandfeasibility.
2.8.3. FreetextresponsesThecommentsondesirabilitylargelyconcernedthepedagogicmeritsofthelearningscenariodepictedinthevision(29comments).Therewere,however,asignificantnumberofcommentswhichwereeitherambivalentaboutthevision(11comments)ornegativeaboutit(7comments).Theseambivalentandneutralcommentsraiseddoubtsabout,forexample,theabilityoflearnerstounderstandlearninggoals,ortocorrectlyinterprettheresultsofanalytics,andthesocialconsequencesoftailoringmaterialstoculturalpreferences.
Keyviewsexpressedincludethattherearetoomanydependencies,includingthesystems,linkstorelevantcontentandlackofexistingstructuresforthisvisiontobeachievedatwidescalewith10years.Itunderestimatesthestrengthofinstitutionalinertia,i.e.itmaybepossibleintheworkplacecontextsbutisunlikelyinschooloruniversitysystems.Somewerescepticalthattechnologicalsolutionstomeetthisvisionwouldbewouldbereadyby2025,andeveniftheywere,that‘teachingbyrobots’wouldnotbepoliticallyandsociallyacceptable.However,othertooktheviewthatformsofcollectiveandsocialearninghavealreadybeenimplementedwithinformaleducationandMOOCs,sothisvisioncanbeseenassupportingexistingpractices.Theissuesofhowcertificationchangesinresponsewillbecritical.
Manyoftherequestedactionsconcernedpromotionofthepedagogyassociatedwiththevision.Somementionedtheneedtoresearchintoanddemonstratetheeffectivenessofthesetechniques.Othersmentionedtheneedtosupporttheapproachwithinteroperabilityandprivacyspecifications,andwithchangestocertification.
2.8.4. KeywordsPedagogy,effectiveness,inertia,technicalchallenges,certification,policy,privacy.
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3. ThemesthatemergedfromthedataWehavesofardiscussedtheresultsonavision-by-visionbasis.Ourpurpose,however,isnottoestablishasharedvisionforlearninganalytics.Norisitsimplytorateourvisionsinorderofdesirabilityandfeasibility.Ratherweseektousetheresponsestothevisionsasawayofunderstandingtheissueswhichconcernthoseparticipatinginthefield,thedriverswhichareimpactingonthefutureoflearninganalytics,andtheactionswhichitwouldbeappropriatetotaketoenhancethatfuture.Wehavethereforecumulatedthefreetextdatawhichwehavecollectedforalltheeightvisions,andcodedthemtoidentifythethemeswhichrecurinthem.Themethodwhichwehaveusedisdescribedinsection1.3.7above,andthethemeswhichemergedfromthisprocessareshowninthefollowingtable:
Table2:Themesthatemergedfromthedata
No. Theme Whenthethemecodewasapplied1 Affect Anyreferencetofeelingsoremotion2 Alienation Commentswhichstressedtheneedtoincludehumansintheanalytics
process,orwhichwereconcernedthenegativeimpactofanalyticsonsocietyandrelationships.
3 Complexity Discussionoftheorganisationalortechnicaldifficultiesandchallenges,ortheneedtocreatenewtools.Alsostatementsarguingtheopposite,thatdeploymentisstraightforward/easy.
4 Cost Alldiscussionoffinancialmatters,not‘resources’inabroadsense.Alsomentionoftheimportanceofthemarket.
5 Ethics Concernsaboutwhetherlearninganalyticsinterventionsweregoodforthepeopleinvolved.Ethicswasdefinedasbeingdistinctfromprivacy.
6 Experience Argumentonthebasisofrespondentsowncurrentpractice,andtheirexperienceofachieving,orfailingtoachieve,somethingspecificwithanalyticsintheworldtoday.
7 Pedagogy Discussionofeducationalmethods,includingtrainingforteachers8 Power Personal,socialandpoliticalcoercion;organisationalstructures;and
contextswherelearninganalyticswillbeunabletofunction.9 Privacy Personal,professionalandpoliticalconcernsaboutthecontrolanduseof
data.Thiswasdefinedasbeingdistinctfromethics.10 Regulation Referencestolaws,rules,policies,etc.11 Standards Referencetotechnicalstandardsfortheinteroperabilityofsystems.12 Temporality Alldiscussionoftime,including‘justintime’,delay,lateruseofdata,
timeliness,etc.13 Validity Discussionofreliability,generalizability,comprehensibility,
worthwhileness,correctness,meaning.
Intheremainderofthissectionwediscusseachofthethemeswhichemergedfromthecumulatedtexts,andsummarisetheassociateddata.AnoverviewofthenumberofcodesappliedtoeachvisionisprovidedinAppendix2:CodingSummaryChart.
Fordetailsofhowmanytimeseachelementwasmentionedinthefree-textresponsestothesurvey,seeAppendix2:CodingSummaryChart.
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3.1. Theme:Affect
3.1.1. Affect:KeywordsMotivation,perception,transparency,volition
3.1.2. Affect:MainaspectsTheword‘affect’asweuseitherereferstotheexpressionofemotioninrelationtothevisions.Severalrespondentsdiscussedlearners’andteachers’attitudestobeingtrackedand/ormonitored.Otherdescriptionsofteachersandstudentsfeelingsincludedthatbothgroupsmaybefrightenedbytheintroductionoflearninganalyticssolutionsduetolossofcontrol(visions1,2and5).Somenotedthattheattitudesofcompaniesandgovernmentswillinfluencethedegreeandspeedoftakeupofanalytics,whetherornottheseattitudesareinformedbyevidence.Transparentbehaviour(supportedbyopensystems)wasseenasdesirable,andsometeacherscanbeinspiringand/orconfrontational(andcomputerdriventeachingmaynotbe).Theideaofanalyticssystemsenabling‘covert(?)shapingoflearning’wasmentioned(vision7),andtheideaofanalyticssolutionproviders‘over-promising’onthecapabilityoftheirsystems.Aviewthatanalyticswouldnotbeabletogainunderstandingoflearners’personalneedsandmotivations(visions1and7)wasputforward.
3.1.3. Affect:MostrelevantvisionsIssuesofaffectappearedmostfrequentlyinresponsestoVision1,closelyfollowedbyvision5,and7and3.WithrespecttoVision1,somementionedthatthevisiondescribedstudentsbeingmonitored,butnotteachersandthat“Learningisanessentiallysocialactivitywhichreliesonmutualtrustandconfidence.
3.1.4. Affect:LeastrelevantvisionsAffectwasnotmentionedatallinconnectionwithvision8,andonlyafewtimeswithrespecttovisions4(e.g.“ThecynicinmesuggestIambeingidealisticifIthinkthiswillreallyhappen”)and6(e.g.“Wowbigbrotherahead……iwouldapplythosetoolstopolicymakersfirst”).Thesearevisionsthatmostrespondentssawasbeingdesirable(seeFigure12:Alldesirabilitydata).
3.2. Theme:Alienation
3.2.1. Alienation:KeywordsAutomation,communication,dystopia,humanity,intrusion,policy,privacy,resistance,society.
3.2.2. Alienation:MainaspectsAlienationisusedheretoindicatecommentswhicheither
a) rejectedlearninganalyticsinaffectivelanguage,orintermsofsocialexclusionb) ascribedanemotionalresponseorexperienceofsocialexclusiontoothers.
Manyrespondentssaidthatanalyticstechniquescombinedwithinvasivetrackingmethodswouldmeetwithapersonalresponsethatwouldbeabarriertosuccessfuladoptionoflearninganalytics.Otherspredictedabacklashandsocialresistance“teacherswillresisthavingthesensorspointedatthem”,orlamentedthelackofresistance.Itwassuggestedthatsomeareasoflearninganalyticsshouldsimplybeavoided,inthewordsofonerespondent“therearesomebarriersthatweshouldn’tcross”.
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Akeycommonconcernwasacontrastbetween“Realhumanbeings”andthedesignersofsystems,whoaremembersofatechnocraticelite.MentionwasmadeofOrwelland‘bigbrother’andofthelossofhumanityandinter-personalcontact.Onerespondentcapturedthissocialuneasebyaskingifthedesignersofmachine-drivenlearningsystemswouldwanttheirownchildrenandgrandchildrentobeeducatedwiththem,orforthesystemstoreplacetheirowneliteuniversities.The“scary”prospectof“technologyfanaticism”isseeninathreatbecause“wearenotrobots”or“automatons”tobecontrolledby“algorithmicoverlords”.
Morespecificallywithregardtoeducation,manycommentsexpressedthefearthatteacher-studentrelationswouldbeunderminedbytheuseofanalytics,tothedetrimentofauthenticeducationalpractice.Therewasaperceptionthatthe“solerelianceontechnologywillsimplypigeonholelearners”,creatingstereotypesthatunderminetheflexibilityneededtorespondtodiverseneeds.Theresultcouldbegreatersocialexclusion.Alargenumberofcommentsstressedthathumansshouldremaininchargeofdecisionmaking,andthatinformationoverloadandnon-negotiablelearningoutcomesarealreadyathreattothis.Thiswasrelatedinsomecommentswitharejectionoftheprofitmotiveinanalyticsinterventions,“…otherwisepeoplewillbeatthemercyofjudgementbyproprietarysystems”.
Respondentssuggestedtwopossiblecoursesofaction.Somefeltthatcertainscenariosshouldbeabandonedbecausetheyweretoointrusiveorotherwiseobjectionable.Othersmentionedimprovedpopularengagementinpolicyandbettercommunicationofpolicy,enhancedprivacycontrol,anddemonstrablevaluetousers,asmeanswherebyalienationcouldbecounteracted.
3.2.3. Alienation:MostrelevantvisionsThevisionwhichstimulatedmostdiscussionofalienationwasVision7:Analyticshelplearnersmaketherightchoices(25comments).Respondentsgenerallyreferredtotheundesirabilityofmachinestakingdecisionmakingingeneraloutofhumanhands,andinparticularinthefieldofeducation.Thiswasfelttobedehumanising,toignoreimportantaspectsofhumannature.Itwassuggestedthatmechanisedanalysiswouldtendtoleadtoreinforcementofexistingsocialdivisions,andcreatepressureforconformity.Thosewhocommentedvariedbetweenfearingtheconsequencesoftechnologicalomnipotence,andexpressingscepticismthatdataanalyticswouldbecapableofsubstitutingforhumanjudgement.
TheothervisionswhichreceivedlargenumbersofcommentscodedforalienationareVision6:Learninganalyticsareessentialtools(17comments)andVision1:Learnersaremonitoredbytheirlearningenvironments(16comments).AswithVision7,commentsonthesevisionsoftenreferredtotheundesirabilityofcedinghumanjudgementtomachines,andthelossofhumanvaluesandindependence.However,visions1and7additionallydependonmassivecollectionofdata.Invision1thisconcernsthegatheringofveryhighdensitydataintheclassroom,whereasinvision7thedataisgatheredandcompiledfromeducationalrecordsacrosstheeducationsystem.Thisfocusonmassivedatacollectionseemsrelatedtoastrandofcommentsreferringtoinvasionofprivacy,ubiquitousmonitoringandincreasedcontrolofpersonalaction.
3.2.4. Alienation:LeastrelevantvisionsThevisionswiththeleastcommentscodedforalienationareVision5:OpensystemsarewidelyadoptedandVision4:Learnerscontroltheirdata.Bothofthesevisionsimplicitlyaddressconcerns
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aboutprivacyandsocialcontroloflearninganalyticswhicharethekeythreadsrelatedtoalienation.Itthereforeseemsreasonabletosuggestthatthelackofcommentscodedforalienationonvisions4&5suggeststhatthesevisionsareacceptabletorespondentswhoexperiencealienationwithregardtoothervisions,andthatopendevelopmentoflearninganalyticsandmechanismsforpersonalcontrolofdataareimportantinitiativesiflearninganalyticsistobewidelyacceptable.
3.3. Theme:Complexity
3.3.1. Complexity:KeywordsBarrier,challenge,social,technology,understanding.
3.3.2. Complexity:MainaspectsComplexitywasamajorthemeintheresponses–itwasthethirdmost-frequentlyoccurringtheme.(Forfullcounts,seeAppendix2:CodingSummaryChart.)Itcoverscomplexityandchallenges,whethertechnicalormorebroadly.Aswellasresponsessayingtherearecomplexityandchallenges,itincludesthosemakingtheoppositecase,thatitisrelativelystraightforward,simple,orhasalreadyhappenedinotherfields(asdistinctfromthePowertheme,whichcodescontextswherelearninganalyticsmaybemoreorlessdesirable,feasible,etc.).
Therearetwomainaspectsofthistheme.Thefirstisfromrespondentsarguingthatthereisalotofcomplexity,intermsofthetechnicalchallengestobesolved,andintermsofthehumansmakingsenseanduseofthedata.Theserespondentstendedtoseethiscomplexityaspresentingabarriertothevisions,althoughviewsvariedonhowmuchofabarrier,fromaminorblockage,to‘verydifficulttoachieve’,tomakingthevisioncompletelyinfeasible.Thesecondaspectisfromrespondentsarguingthatitwouldberelativelystraightforward,thattherearefewornotechnicalorsocialchallenges,orthatifthereare,theyareeasilyaddressed.Theserespondentsoftenmadereferencestosituationsorcontextswherethisaspectsofthevisionwasalreadyhappening,andcitedtherapidpaceofdevelopmentinthetechnicalfield.
Itishardtosimplysummarisethebalanceofmanyresponsestomanydifferentvisions,butmostoftheresponseswereverymuchinlinewiththerespondentwhosaid:“Thefeasibilityofthisisbasedonovercomingsignificantsocialandpoliticalhurdles.Itisfeasibletechnically.”Itisimportanttonotethatalmostnorespondentsarguedthatitwasnotcomplextechnically,andsomeofthefewthatdidimpliedthattheywerenotfamiliarwiththetechnicaldetails.Thustherespondentsingeneralagreedthattherewasconsiderabletechnicalcomplexity,aswellassocialandpoliticalcomplexity,butonbalancethoughtthetechnicalchallengesweresignificantlymorelikelytobeovercomethanthesocialandpoliticalones.Therewasmuchsupportfortheideathatthesebroaderconsiderationswerethemostimportantones.
3.3.3. Complexity:MostrelevantvisionsResponsestoalmostallthevisionsdealtwithcomplexityasanissue.Respondentsgenerallyengagedwiththeparticularcomplexityofthevisionassetout.So,forinstance,respondentstoVision2(Learners’personaldataaretracked)gaveexamplesofexistingsensorsandInternetofThingstechnologiesasargumentsforthevisionbeingfeasible.
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3.3.4. Complexity:LeastrelevantvisionsTherewasrelativelylittlementionofcomplexityinresponsestoVisions3and7.ForVision3,thisisprobablybecausethatvision(Analyticsarerarelyused)doesnotrequirechallengesofcomplexitytohavebeenovercome.ForVision7(Analyticshelplearnersmaketherightchoices),itmayhavebeenbecauserespondentswerefocusingonthepedagogicaspectsofthevision.
3.4. Theme:Cost
3.4.1. Cost:KeywordsBudgetsavings,businessmodels,commercialmodels,costs,economicmodels,fundingmodels,governmentfunding,marketplace,value
3.4.2. Cost:MainaspectsTheuseoflearninganalyticswasassociatedwithaperceivedneedtobringdownthecostofeducationandreducethecostofworkplacetraining.‘Economicscontinuetopressurethetraditionalclassroomwhichmakesthisvision[7]anecessity.’‘Bringingdowncostsisamajordriverineducationaldevelopment.’
Manyrespondentswhomentionedelementsofcostfelttheywereatthemercyofmarketforcesandthatanalyticswouldbeintroducedbecausecompanieswantedtomakemoneybysellingthem.OnecommentedpessimisticallyonVision3,‘Commonsensewon'tprevailinlightofthepowerofmoney’.AnotherrespondedtoVision7,‘Economicscontinuetopressurethetraditionalclassroomwhichmakesthisvisionanecessity.’
Conversely,someexpectedVision5(opensystemsforlearningarewidelyadopted)tofailbecauseitwouldstopcompaniesmakingmoneyfromanalytics,soeconomicforceswouldlimitopenness.
InthecontextofVision4(individualscontroltheirowndata),thevalueofdatawasanissue:‘weneedtoincreaseawarenessofthevalueandtradingpowerofdata’and‘Humansneedtounderstandthattheirdataisanequaltoacurrency.Respectivemeasuresmustbetakentoworkouttheexchangerate.’
Elsewhere,costwastypicallyassociatedwithmoney,althoughonerespondentidentifiedotherformofvalue:‘‘Alotofthevalueofeducationisnotinsupportingindividualgrowthbutindevelopingcommunitygrowth,norms,andsoon.”
Therewasaconcernthatmoneywouldbewastedonunfruitfullinesofresearchandvaluelesstools.
3.4.3. Cost:MostrelevantvisionsIssuesofcostappearedmostfrequentlyinresponsestoVision6(opensystems).Severalpeoplefearedthatthevisionwouldbeblockedbyvendorlock-in.Somesuggesteddevelopinganeweconomicmodeloranewfundingmodel,usinggovernmentfundingtosupportthisvision.
ReferencestocostrelatedtoVision1(classroomsmonitorthephysicalenvironmenttosupportlearningandteaching)focusedontheneedtoprioritisethoughtfullyandavoidwastingmoney.‘‘Focusvaluableandrestrictedresearchtimeandfundingonwhatismorefeasible,reliable,validandofimmediatevalue.”
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3.4.4. Cost:LeastrelevantvisionTherewerefewresponsesrelatedtocostinrelationtoVision3(analyticsnotused)andnosuggestionsthatexpensewouldlimittheuseanddevelopmentofanalytics
3.5. Theme:Ethics
3.5.1. Ethics:KeywordsAbuse,context,culture,exploitation,personalisation,policy.
3.5.2. Ethics:MainaspectsTherewereconcernsexpressedacrossthevisionsabouttheneedtoensuretheethicaluseofdataforeducationalpurposes,anditsexploitationforotherpurposes,e.g.throughthedevelopmentofpoliciestoguidetheethicaluseofanalyticssystems.Respondentsmadereferencetounethicalpracticessuchasattemptstogamelearninganalyticssystems,andremarkedthatunethicalpracticescouldcausevision3(“In2025,analyticsarerarelyusedineducation”)tooccur.Therewerealsomentionsofthemannerinwhichlearninganalyticscouldbeappliede.g.thatteachers’rolesshouldnotbereduced,butchangedaslearningisa‘human,sociallyembedded,communalactivity’(inresponsetovision7).
3.5.3. Ethics:MostrelevantvisionsThevisionswhichdrewthemostcommentsthatmentionedethicalissueswithrespecttodesirability,feasibilityandactionswerevisions2,3and1respectively,withvision2drawingthemostoverall.Responsestovision2mentionedpotentialofabuseofdataandexploitationofdataforpurposesotherthaneducation.Therewerealsoconcernsthatthevisionreliesonanideal,thatitaimsatmatchingpeoplewiththatideal,ofmeetingexternallydefinedgoalsinsteadofmaximisingindividualpotentialinalocalcontext.(Aresponsetovision6mentionedarelatedconcern,i.e.thepotentialforanalyticstoblockopportunityforindividualstotranscendtheirbackground).Responsestovision2includedconcernsthat‘thosemostinneedwillnotoptin’tohavingnecessarydatacollected,promptingneedtoactontheirbehalf.Requirementoftechnologycouldlimitaccess.
3.5.4. Ethics:LeastrelevantvisionsVision8drewthefewestcommentsmentioningethicalissues.Thiscouldbebecausethevisionstressestheuseofreliableandvalidlearningroutesforindividuallearners.However,oneofthecommentsraisedaconcern:‘selectingstudymaterialbasedon"theculturalcharacteristicsoflearners"soundslikeagood(bad!)waytoensureadeepsplitbetweendifferentgroupsbygivingthemdifferenteducationsontopofotherdifferences’.
3.6. Theme:Experience
3.6.1. Experience:KeywordsCommercialpressure,communicationbarriers,failure,policies,success,technology.
3.6.2. Experience:MainaspectsCommentswhicharecodedunderasrelatingtoexperiencearethoseinwhichtherespondentappealstotheirpersonalexperienceoflearninganalytics,ortheaccumulatedexperienceofthecommunity,asabasisforarguinginfavouroragainstthevisionconcerned.AdetailedbreakdownofhowmanytimesthiscodewasusedisavailableinAppendix2:CodingSummaryChart.
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Averywiderangeoftypesofexperiencewerementionedasbeingrelevanttothevisions.Moreover,theexperiencesweredividedbetweenthosethatsupportedapositiveviewofthefutureoflearninganalytics,andthosewhichwereprovidedasexamplesofconstraintsonthefutureoflearninganalytics,withabout60%findingpositiveevidenceintheirexperience,andabout40%findingnegativeevidence.Thisisinlinewithourcommentselsewherethat
a) learninganalyticsisdeeplyentwinedwithwidersocial,economic,organisationalandtechnologicalprocesses
b) thereissubstantialdisagreementamongexpertsandenthusiastsforlearninganalyticsaboutthewayinwhichthefieldislikelytodevelop,andthedegreetowhichitwillfulfilitspromise.
Muchofthepositiveevidenceidentifiedinexperiencesconcernedthepresenttrajectoriesoftechnologiesandpracticesthatarerequiredforthesuccessfulimplementationoflearninganalytics.Theseincludepervasivecomputing,smartenvironments,theinternetofthings,biometricsandwearables.TherewerealsodissentingvoiceswhopointedoutthatITdepartmentsdonottalktoeachotherorhavegoodcommunicationwiththeirinstitution,andcomplainedof“Over-promising,thearroganceofthepeoplewhopontificateaboutthis,andtheirignoranceofwhatitactuallytakestolearnandtoteach”.
Inotherareastheconclusionsfromexperienceweremorecontested.Forexampleopenlearninganalyticswassupportedbythefactthatmanyalgorithmsarealreadypublic,thatopencollaborationisunderwaytosupportlearninganalyticsinfrastructure,andthatopeninnovationisanestablishedbusinessmodel.SimilarlyIPregulationoverhumangenomepatentswasgivenasapositiveexample.Ontheotherhand,itwasargued“moneytalks”andcompaniesliketokeeptheirmethodsanddatabehindIPbarriers,whilepublicinterestsarenotwellcoordinatedtofightagainstprivateinterests.Gatekeepers,itwassuggested,wouldmaintaincontrol,astheyhaveinmedicalanalytics.
Anumberofrespondentspointedtotheworkbeingdoneinthecorporateworldandinmilitarytraining,asevidencethatdatadrivensystemscanbeeffective.Howeverotherspointedtoexperiencesofeducationwhichdonotfittheseexamples,forexamplethelackofwidespreadadoptionofprogrammedlearningandintelligenttutoringsystems,andareaswherepredictionisnotperfect(theweather).Anotherrespondentpointedtotheneedforteacherstostimulatelearnerstoengageinself-pacedcourses,andthegenerallackofprogressinincreasingtheproportionofonlineeducation.
Anumberofrespondentspointedatexperiencewhichindicatesthatconcernsaboutprivacyareexaggerated.Theymentionedthatmedicaldataandfinancialdataisalreadysharedandmanagedwithoutmajorproblems.Education,theypointout,alreadykeepsextensiverecordsonlearners,andcarriesoutpredictiveanalysisbymeansofformativeassessment.Policiesforethics,datagovernanceandsecurityarebeginningtobeputinplace.Othersseeatrendtoabuseofdata,andaneo-liberalagendawasmentioned,thereductionoflearningtooutcomes,andKPIs.TheInBloomexperience(Horn2014)indicatesthatprivacyshouldbetakenseriouslyandbuiltinfromthebeginning.
Experiencealsoshowedthatmoreneedstobedoneinsharingknowledgeandexperience,bothinacademiaandintheEU.
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3.6.3. Experience:MostrelevantvisionsCommentsmadebyrespondentswerecodedfor‘experience’mostfrequentlyinVision3(25comments).Thisdescribesafutureinwhichlearninganalyticshasbeenside-lined,whichwouldclearlybeamatterofconcernforourrespondents,whoarealmostallengagedinthefieldinonewayoranother.Thisvisionisalsoonewhichreliesontheextrapolationofcurrentsocialandpoliticalprocesses,whichistopicthatmanypeoplewillhaveanopinionon.Theopinionswereverydivided,with12commentscitedexperiencetoinsupportofthepredictionthatanalyticswouldberarelyused,while13commentsarguedthecontrary.Thecommentswerealsoverypolarised,withcommentsrangingfrom“Thevisionissoimplausibleitbarelywarrantscomment”toassessingitas“veryprobable”.
Vision7,alsogeneratedmanycomments.Thisvisionsuggeststhatmassivedatabasesoranonymisedstudentinformationwillenablesystemstomakebetterrecommendationsthatteachers,asituationthatwouldthreatenthecurrentnatureoftheeducationsystem,andalsotheprofessionalactivitiesofmanyrespondents.8commentscitedexperiencetosupportthevision,while10arguedthathumaninputwasanessentialpartofeducation.
Asregardsvision5onopensystems(18comments),noexperiencewascitedtoindicatethatthevisionwasundesirable,butrespondentswereequallydividedbetweenarguingthatcurrentworkwouldleadtoopensystems,andarguingthatcommercialinterestsandlackofcommunicationwouldpreventthevisiondeveloping.
Visions1(16comments)and6(14comments)bothproposeaworldinwhichlearninganalyticshasdevelopedandworkseffectively.Inthesescenariosexperiencewaslargelycitedtoindicatethatthevisionwouldbepracticable,whileobjectionstothevisionaretobefoundunderothercodes,suchasalienationandprivacy.
3.6.4. Experience:LeastrelevantvisionsThethemeofexperiencewasleastfrequentlycodedforvision2,perhapsindicatingthatthetechnologyofsensorsisunfamiliartorespondents.Itisinterestingthattherewaslittleevidenceofexperienceforvisions4(5coded)and5(6coded),bothofwhichareratedashighlydesirablebyrespondents.Thisenthusiasmpluslackofexperiencesuggestsagapintheresearchbeingcarriedout,andpresumablyalsointheinstitutionalandfinancialsupportforsuchresearch.
3.7. Theme:Pedagogy
3.7.1. Pedagogy:KeywordsEducators,learn,learner,learning,pedagogy,teach,teacher,teaching.
3.7.2. Pedagogy:MainaspectsPedagogywasthemostcommonthemeintheresponses.(Forcounts,seeAppendix2:CodingSummaryChart.)Manyrespondentsraisedissuesaboutlearninganalyticsandtheprocessesofteachingandlearning,andaboutawarenessandtrainingforlearners,teachersandmanagerstomakebestuseoflearninganalytics.
Themostcommonresponseinthepedagogythemewereconcernsthatlearninganalyticsrepresentspoorpedagogy,orrisksbeingusedforpoorpedagogy.Theseresponsesarguedthatthe
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dataisnotusefultounderstandlearning,orparticularly“higher-orderlearning”,asopposedtomechanicalbehaviours,physicalskills,and“purelytheacquisitionoffacts”,whichwerethoughttobemorelikelytobethefocus.Theyarguedthatanalyticsdoesn’t(ormaynot)captureessentialelementsoflearning,suchasmotivation,volition,andthehumanconnection(seealsotheAlienationtheme).Manyrespondentswerefirmlyoftheviewthateffectivelearningrequiredahumanteacher,butnotallofthem.Oneevencommented,“Totheextentthattheteachernegativelyaffectsthequalityoflearning,theteachershouldberemoved.”
Somerespondentsimplicitlybelievethatourcurrentunderstandingoflearningisgood;mostofthoserespondentswereatleastsomewhatscepticalthatanalyticscouldcapturewhatweknowaboutgoodpedagogy.Othersarguedthatweneedmoreresearchintolearningitself,andthatlearninganalyticsmighthelp.
Personalisation,responsivenessandadaptationwereacommonissueraisedunderthistheme.Mostresponseswereoftheviewthatlearninganalyticswouldhelpachievepersonalisationandindividualadaptation,butnotall,andsomewerenotconvincedthatthesewouldbegoodthingstoachieveanyway.Asmallnumberofresponseswereconcernedabouttheopposite:thatanalyticswouldmakelearningmoreone-size-fits-all.
Therewasconcernaboutwhatvaluessuchsystemswill“embed”:whetherexistingpoorpedagogicalpracticeorineffectivepowerstructures(cross-referencePower),theill-informedviewsofprogrammersanddatascientists.Somerespondentswereconcernedthatamarketviewoflearningwouldbeembedded;asmallgroupofotherswereconcernedabouttheopposite:thatitwouldallbeabout“educationalapproaches”withnoroleforthemarket.
Mostresponseswerecautiouslypositive:it“doeshavethepotentialtohelpteachersandeducators”,buttheywerenuanced:it“hasaroletoplay”,ratherthanbeingtheentireanswer.
Akeyissueraisedunderthisheadingwasaperceivedneedfortraining,developmentandawareness-raisingaroundanalytics.Mostoften,itwasteacherswhowereseenasneedingthisprofessionallearning,butrespondentsalsomentionedaneedformanagersandlearnersthemselvestogainskillsininterpreting,using,andactingonthedatainappropriateways:“increasinglylearners,families,educatorsandothers[will]acquireexperienceandskillsinjudgingwhentoacceptpredictionsandwhentoviewthemwithsomescepticismandapplyadditionalknowledge”.
3.7.3. Pedagogy:MostrelevantvisionsThisthemewasmentionedbymanyrespondentstoallvisions,probablybecauserespondentsfeltthatpedagogywasanimportantfactorforallofthem.
3.7.4. Pedagogy:Leastrelevantvisions
Notapplicable,becausethisthemewasmentionedinrelationtoallvisions.
3.8. Theme:Power
3.8.1. Power:KeywordsBigBrother,datacontrol,empowerment,humanrights,law,misuse,policy,surveillance
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3.8.2. Power:MainaspectsRespondentsidentifiedseverallevelsofpowerassociatedwiththesevisions.Atanindividuallevel,somewelcomedopportunitiestoempowerthelearner;whilesomeworriedaboutalossofagencybythelearner.Othersbelievedthateducationshouldbeledbyateacher,whocanmakedecisionsthatlearnersarenotexperiencedenoughandanalyticsnotnuancedenoughtomake.Ataninstitutionallevel,therewerefearsthatcontroloverlearningwouldbeputinthehandsofsystemdesigners,programmersandmanagersratherthanteachers.Atanationallevel,therewereconcernsaboutthedevelopmentofasurveillancestate,andlarge-scalemonitoringprogrammes.Ataninternationallevel,therewereissuesabouttheaimsandvaluesofeducation,andaboutapossibleneedtoexpandourdefinitionofhumanrights
3.8.3. Power:MostrelevantvisionsIssuesofpowerwerefrequentlyraisedinrelationtoVision5(openmodels),particularlytheneedtobalancepowerbetweenusersandvendors:“agoodbalancebetweenempoweringinstitutionswithoutcripplingcompaniesfrombeinginnovative”.Theimportantroleofgovernmentandnationalorganisationsinproposingandimplementingshiftsinpolicies,standardsandpracticeswasassociatedwiththis.
Vision4(datacontrol)provokedstrongreactionsaroundhumanrights:“therearenewwaystoexploit,manipulateandassertpoweroverothersthankstothedataweholdaboutthem.Thispowerneedstobecurtailed.”Therewerecallsforactiononthisissuefromparents,studentbodies,grassrootsmovements,politicalrepresentatives,policymakersandgovernments.
Severalofthevisions,butparticularlyVision1(monitoringtheenvironment)provokedreferencestoBigBrotherandadystopianOrwellianfuture,including:‘atoolforassertingpower’,‘ArewereadyforaEducationalBigBrother?’“theimplicationsforlearningoutsidetheclassroomrequireasurveillancesocietybeyondanythingsocietywouldcurrentlyfindacceptable’and“teacherswouldresist”.Threepeopledescribedthisvisionasalittle“scary”.
3.8.4. Power:LeastrelevantvisionsVisions2(datatracking)and6(essentialtool)provokedthefewestreferencestopower.However,manyofthesereferenceswereintense.OnerespondenttoVision2believedthat“Peoplewouldbecomeslavesoftheirsensorsandtheirdiagnosis&recommendationsapps.’Anothercommented,‘soundslikewearerobotscontrolledbyouralgorithmicoverlords”.Morepositively,onerespondenttoVision6sawlearninganalyticsasawayofgivingmorepowertoeducation:“Rationaleducationalsystemdesignedtomaximizestudentoutcomes.Increaseshumancapital.Educationovercomeshistoricalinjustices.”
3.9. Theme:Privacy
3.9.1. Privacy:KeywordsBigbrother,control,power,regulation,surveillance.
3.9.2. Privacy:MainaspectsTheresponsesontheprivacythemecanbesplitintotwobroadcategories,i.e.privacyrelated‘threats/barriers’tosuccessfulimplementationoflearninganalyticssolutionsandprivacyrelated‘enablers/opportunities’forthesuccessfulimplementationoflearninganalyticssolutions.
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Inthebarrier/threatcategory,somerespondentsconsideredtheamountofmonitoringnecessaryforsomevisionswouldbetoomuchforsomesocialgroups,e.g.“aBigBrotherscenario,withdeepintrusionintotheprivacyandintegrityofstudents,whichisnotneededforeffectivelearninganalytics”andinsomesituations“theimplicationsforlearningoutsidetheclassroomrequireasurveillancesocietybeyondanythingsocietywouldcurrentlyfindacceptable”(vision1).AnotherbarrieridentifiedisthatIfstudentsareabletooptoutofsomeoralloftheirdatabeinganalysed,thenpotentiallythosewhooptoutmaybethosemostinneedofsupport(asacounter,somerespondentsobservedthatthereisaneedfor“institutionsandmechanismsthatareindependentandactonbehalfofstudentsandteachers”).Someidentifiedprivacyregulationsasapotentialbarrierinsomejurisdictions“itisdifficulttosayhowfeasibleitis,especiallyinEU”(vision1).Therewasaconcernaboutthecostofenablingeasy-to-usetoolstosetandadjustprivacysettings,intermsofbothtechnologydevelopment,andalsointermsoftimetoraiseawareness.
Inthe‘enablers/opportunities’category,onerespondentremarkedthatrisksofintrusionarenotasufficientreasontoreduceinvestmentinlearninganalytics(vision3),and“manypeoplewill(do)continuetobecomfortablewiththeirdatabeingused”.Thereisaneedforneedforan“up-to-date,transparentlegalframeworkstoprotecttheindividual”(vision2).“Focusonhowtomanageprivatedatahastobethemostimportantissue”.Individualsmusthavepowertodecide,andorganisationsmustbetransparentaboutwhatdatatheyuseandhowtheyuseit.Thereare“conceivablescenarioswhereitismorebeneficialfortheuserstonothavefullcontroloftheirowndata,particularlywhereill-informeddecisionsmayhavelifeconsequences”andthereisaneed“toconsiderthegreatergoodofsharingnon-identifiabledata”.Itis“likelythatinstitutionsandtoolsdeveloperswillaskuserstosignawaysomerightstodataaspartoftheconditionsofthemorusingtheirservices.Somedegreeofaccesstodataseemsnecessarytoruntheinstitution”.Thereisaneedfor“clearguidancearoundtheretentionofanonymiseddata”(vision4).”Openingupaccesstodatacreatesavibrantmarketforthirdpartytools”(vision5).
3.9.3. Privacy:MostrelevantvisionsVision4withatotalof99commentsofwhich38wereactions).Onlyoneothervisionhadmorethan20comments(Vision1,ofwhich15ofthe28relevantcommentswereaboutdesirability).
3.9.4. Privacy:LeastrelevantvisionsVision8(only1comment,aboutactions).Visions2,5,6and7had11orfewercommentsaboutprivacy.
3.10. Theme:Regulation
3.10.1. Regulation:KeywordsGovernment,guides,law,laws,legislation,legislature,policies,policy,protocol,protocols,regulation,regulations,rules.
3.10.2. Regulation:MainaspectsThisthemeisconcernedwithlaws,regulations,policyandrules.Comparedtootherthemes,itwasmentionedbyrespondentsamediumamount.
Almostallresponsesmentioningregulationsaidorimpliedthattherewasaneedformoreorbetterregulation:veryfewresponsesarguedforderegulation,repealoflegislationoralooseningof
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existingpolicy.ThemainexceptionwasinresponsestoVision3(Analyticsarerarelyused),whereseveralresponsesarguedthattherestrictionssuggestedinthatnegativevisionwouldbeundesirableorunnecessary.Therewerealsosomeresponsesarguingthat“rulesandregulations[…]couldcausedelaysandhindercarryingitout”.
Regulationwassuggestedatawiderangeoflevels:fromrulesorpoliciesforindividualorganisationsuptoformallegislationatnationalorsupra-nationallevel.
Overwhelmingly,respondentswhomentionedregulationwereconcernedtoenforceethics,privacy,ownership,andtransparency,buildingonorstrengtheningexistingDataProtectionpractice.(SeealsoEthics(Section3.5)Privacy(Section3.9),Power(Section3.8)).Otherrespondentscitedaneedforregulationtoensuresecurity,andtoencourageormandateopenness.
Althoughmostrespondentswereimplicitlyconfidentinthepossibilityofeffectiveregulationbeingdeveloped,manywereconcernedthatitwouldbeadifficultandcomplexprocess.Therewereevensomecommentsvoicingdoubtthatpolicymakerswouldbeabletorisetothischallenge,e.g.“Idon'tseepolicymakersabletoreachsuchsophisticateddecisions”.
Manyresponsesmentioninggovernmentsandpolicymakersalsocalledforfundingtosupportresearchandawareness-raisinginthisfield.
3.10.3. Regulation:MostrelevantvisionsThisthemewasmentionedunderallthevisions.Thevastmajorityofresponsesinthisthemewereinthefinalopentextsectionconcernedwithactionsneeded.Indeed,regulationswerethemostcommonsuggestionforactionrequired,oroneofthemostcommon,forallvisions.Thissuggeststhattherespondentssawregulationsasthemostimportantactionrequiredinthefieldoflearninganalytics.
3.10.4. Regulation:LeastrelevantvisionsTheleastrelevantvisionsareVision2:In2025,personaldatatrackingsupportslearning,andVision7:In2025,mostteachingisdelegatedtocomputers.ForVision1,theproposalthatpersonaldatawouldbemanagedbythedatasubjectappearstohaveallayedconcerns.InVision7,theconcernwasnotwiththeregulationofdata,butratherwiththeimplicationsoftheresultsofanalysis.
3.11. Theme:Standards
3.11.1. Standards:KeywordsStandards,standardization,interoperability,API,IMS,LTI,Caliper,ExperienceAPI,xAPI,TinCan,SC36
3.11.2. Standards:MainaspectsStandardswasthesecondleast-commonthemeraisedbyrespondents.Itwasnotafrequentresponse,butthoserespondentswhodidraiseittendedtoleavelengthyandinformedcommentsaboutit.
Almostalltheresponsesaboutstandardssaidorimpliedthattheywerenecessaryordesirableinthisfield:“thereisaneedforstandards”,“clearstandardsshouldbedeveloped”.“Limitedinteroperability”wascitedasaproblemthatstandardscouldhelpovercome.
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Awiderangeofstandardsandstandardsbodieswereraised,includingSC363(theappropriatetechnicalcommitteeoftheInternationalStandardsOrganisation),IMSLearningToolsInteroperability4,andIMSCaliper5,andExperienceAPI/TinCan6.
Aswellasstandardsaboutthedatainlearninganalytics,somerespondentsalsosawaneedforstandardsaboutbroaderissuessuchasprivacy,ethics,datasecurity,andgoodpractice(seealsotheRegulations,PrivacyandEthicsthemes).
3.11.3. Standards:MostrelevantvisionsAlmostalltheresponsescodedundertheStandardsthemeaddressedVision5(Opensystemsarewidelyadopted),whichislargelyconcernedaboutstandards.TherewereseveralStandardsresponsestoVision4(Learnerscontroltheirowndata),whichmainlysaweffectivestandardsasakeyenablerforthisvision.
3.11.4. Standards:LeastrelevantvisionsVeryfewcommentsaboutstandardswereraisedinresponsetotheothervisions,andwheretheywere,theytendedtobefromrespondentswhoclearlyhadexpertiseinstandards.Thissuggeststhatexpertsareunlikelytomentionstandardsinlearninganalyticsunlesstheyarespecificallypromptedortheyareofparticularinteresttotheexpert.
3.12. Theme:Temporality
3.12.1. Temporality:KeywordsDuration,initialstate,just-in-time,rate,speed,sufficiency,timescale.
3.12.2. Temporality:MainaspectsTherewerecommentsacrossthevisionsaboutthespeedatwhichchangeswouldoccur.Somerespondentsthoughtthataspectsofthevisionswerealreadyoccurring,othersthatwithin10yearsisachievable,andsomethatitwilltakelonger.Somenotedthatvariousrequirementsnecessaryforsomeofthevisionsmaytakedifferenttimescalestocometopass,e.g.thetechnologymaybeinplaceby2025,butpoliciesanduseracceptancemaytakelonger.
Othercommentsreflectedontimewithrespecttothenatureofsupportthatlearninganalyticscouldenablee.g.just-in-time,ortoenableteacherstodetectproblemsearlier.Somewereconcernedthatteachersmaynotenoughhavetimetoactonthedata.
Therewerecommentsaboutthetime-spanthatthedatanecessaryforsomeaspectsofthevisionscouldlegallybestoredfor.
3.12.3. Temporality:MostrelevantvisionsVision5(“In2025,opensystemsforlearninganalyticsarewidelyadopted”)hadthemostcommentscodedasbeingrelevanttotemporality(i.e.15).Theseincludedaremarkthatstandardisedtoolsandmethodswillrestrictinnovationinthelong-run,causingthefieldtodevelopmoreslowly.Othe
3http://www.iso.org/iso/iso_technical_committee%3Fcommid%3D453924https://www.imsglobal.org/activity/learning-tools-interoperability5https://www.imsglobal.org/activity/caliperram6https://tincanapi.com/overview/
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otherhand,interoperabilitystandardswillensurethatLeaningAnalyticstechnologymaybeembeddedintonextgenerationofeducationalsystems.Therewereremarksaboutspeed(“Similartothe(slow)growthoftheOERmovement,2025seemsreasonable”),comparisontospeedanddepthofadoptioninrelatedfields(despitethepopularityofLearningManagementSystems,interoperabilityspecificationsarenotcompletelysupportedbymost;howeveritispossiblethatdefactostandardsarise)andchange(theLearningAnalyticsstateoftheartwillcontinuetochangemakingstandardisationextremelydifficult).
Vision1andvision7had10commentseach.WithrespecttoVision1,respondentsnotedthatitwouldbeadvantageoustohavedatasoastobeabletoprovidejustintimesupport,or(Vision3)todetectproblemsearlier.However,somewereconcernedthatteachersmaynotenoughhavetimetoactonthedata.Respondentsalsonotedthingsthatmightaffectspeedofimplementation“howeveritmightbehumanfactors,rulesandregulationsthatcouldcausedelaysandhindercarryingitout”.ForVision7respondentscommentedthatlearninganalyticsshouldmeanthatlearnerscanspendsameamountoftimewithteachers,butthetimeisspentmoreeffectively.Othersthoughtthatitwilltakemorethan10yearstoachieve,e.g.theslowpaceofinstitutionalchangewillactagainstthishappeningwithin10years;“Aculturalandeducationalshiftisneeded–andthoseareslow”.
Vision3had9comments,ofwhichtwiceasmanywereaboutdesirabilityascomparedtofeasibility(i.e.6:3).Referencewasmadetowavesofhigherandlowerusageduetoavailabilityoftechnologiesandprivacyissues,andtotheincreasingriskofprivatedataleakingunlessprivacyisdesignedintoalllearninganalyticssystemsfromthebeginning.
3.12.4. Temporality:LeastrelevantvisionsVisions2and8hadthefewestcommentsthatwerecodedasrelatingtotemporality,i.e.3foreachvision.Thismaybebecausealthoughtemporalissuessuchthespeedatwhichnecessarychangeswouldoccur,ordifferentratesofevolutionofnecessarycomponentsarerelevanttothesevisions,otherissuesweremoreimportantformostoftherespondents.
3.13. Theme:Validity
3.13.1. Validity:KeywordsAssumptions,education,generalizability,learning,reliability,research.
3.13.2. Validity:MainaspectsHere,‘validity’isusedtoreferalsotothereliabilityandgeneralizabilityoflearninganalyticsandtoallaspectsoftheresearchonwhichtheyarebased.Thereisaperceivedneedto‘Focusvaluableandrestrictedresearchtimeandfundingonwhatismorefeasible,reliable,validandofimmediatevalue.’However,carryingoutthistypeofresearchposesseveralproblems.Oneoftheseisconcernedwithphilosophicalquestionsaboutthenatureoflearning,whetheritissomethingthatteachersdotopupils,aprocessof‘change,growth,transformation’,orsomethingelse.Withoutanagreeddefinitionoflearning,itisdifficulttodefinelearningsuccess,howitcanbeoperationalized,whatdatawillprovideevidenceofit,andhowquicklyitshouldbeapparent.
Somerespondentsfeltlearninganalyticsresearchshouldfocusonareasthatappearstraightforwardandclosetosolution;othersfeltifitshouldbe‘tiedtopedagogicaloutcomes’orshouldbeginbydiggingintothe‘deepcomplexityoflearning’.Manysuggestedareasforresearchthatfocusedon
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areasnoteasytodefineorcapturesuchasorchestrationoflearning,higher-orderthinkingskills,attitudes,skills,creativityandcriticalunderstanding.Theyalsoidentifiedconfoundingvariablesincluding‘pressuresofwork,family,sociallife;lackofintrinsicmotivation;makingcurriculasufficientlyrelevanttopeople'slives’.
Respondentsstressedaneedforusersto‘havetheaccesstoquestiontheprocessesandassumptionsunderwhichthedataisinput,massaged,andoutput’,toopenupthealgorithmsandsuccesscasesandtoprovideareliableevidencebaseforthesuccessofdifferentmeasures.Therewasalsoacallformorework‘tobedoneonhowstudentsreacttodatatheyaregivenandhowthatdataispresentedtothem’.
3.13.3. Validity:MostrelevantvisionsValiditywasidentifiedasanissueinrelationtoVision6(essentialtool).Again,thiswasinthecontextofproblems.Onerespondentpointedoutthat‘verylittlecredibleresearchhasdemonstratedanyreallarge-scalebenefitstolearnersorinstitutions.’Therewasaworrythatthatuseofanalyticscanleadto‘self-fulfillingprophecies’andanassumptionthat‘thatthefutureoutcomesareafunctionofpastandpresentvalues’.Therewasalsoacallfor‘qualitativeapproachestostudytheeffectsoflearninganalyticsineducation’inordertotakeintoaccountthemanycomplexissuesthatcannotbeconsideredadequatelyusinganentirelyquantitativeapproachtoeducationalresearch.
3.13.4. Validity:LeastrelevantvisionsOnlyonekeyissueaboutvaliditywasraisedinrelationtoVision4(datacontrol).‘Ifyoudon'thaveafulldatasetcanyoureallydrawmeaningfulconclusions?
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4. ConclusionsTheobjectivesofthisstudy,asdefinedinsection1.2.2,are:
• Toexploreorexposeunderlyingassumptionsorinformationleadingtodifferingjudgmentsonlearninganalytics
• Tocorrelateinformedjudgmentsonthetopicoflearninganalytics,whichspansawiderangeofdisciplines.
Wenowdiscussourfindingsinrelationtothesetwoobjectives.
4.1. Differingjudgementsondesirabilityandfeasibility
Figure9:Disparityinattitudestodesirabilityandfeasibility
Figure9makessalientthosevisionsforwhichtherewasadisparitybetweendesirabilityandfeasibility.TheclaritythatthisrepresentationbringscomesatthecostofgeneratinganaverageforeachLikertscale,withlossofinformationaboutspread.Intheresultingfigureaunanimousminimumnegativeresponseof‘notdesirable’or‘notfeasible’wouldberepresentedaszero%,whileaunanimousmaximumpositiveresponsewouldberepresentedas100%.Intermediatevaluesareweightedaccordingly.
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Firstly,thischartshowsthatthereisawidevariationinrespondents’viewsofthedesirabilityofthevisions,whereasthereismuchgreateragreementontheirfeasibility.Thisimpliesthatthereis,tosomeextent,asharedunderstandingofthecapabilitiesofthetechnologieswhichareavailabletoimplementlearninganalytics,butalsoawidedisparityofviewsregardingthepurposesforwhichthistechnologyshouldbeused.
Secondly,somevisionsstrongdiscrepancybetweendesirabilityandfeasibility:
• Threevisionsareseenassimilarintheirdesirabilityandfeasibility(visions1,6&7).• Twovisionshaveasubstantialdegreeofdiscrepancybetweendesirabilityandfeasibility
(visions2&8).• Forthreevisionsthereisaverystrongcontrastbetweendesirabilityandfeasibility:
o Vision3:In2025,analyticsarerarelyusedineducationo Vision4:In2025,individualscontroltheirowndatao Vision5:In2025,opensystemsforlearninganalyticsarewidelyadopted.
Inallthreecasestherespondentsindicatethatthediscrepancyisdrivenbythemismatchbetweentechnicalcapability,ontheonehand,andsocialandpoliticalimplications,ontheother.InthecaseofVision3,theconcernisthatsocial,politicalandpedagogicfactorswillbringabouttheundesirableabandonmentoflearninganalytics.Inthecaseofvisions5and6,theconcernisthatinitiativeswhichcouldenablelearninganalyticstomakeapositivecontributiontoeducationandsocietywillbepreventedbysocialandpoliticalfactors.
Thisresultwarnsusagainstthinkingofthefutureoflearninganalyticssolelyintermsofthetechnicalconcernsofanalyticsmethodsandpedagogicalapplications.
4.2. Judgementsontheeightvisions,andtheirimplicationsInthissectionwediscussthemainconclusionsthatcanbedrawnfromresponsestotheindividualvisions,andthedriverswhichtheseimply.Wethenidentifythethreeareasofactionwhichcanaddressthesedrivers.
4.2.1. Vision1.In2025,classroomsmonitorthephysicalenvironmenttosupportlearningandteaching
Amajorityfoundthisvisionundesirable,butfeasible.Rejectionofthevisioncentredontheintrusivenessofdatagatheringandconcernsaboutprivacy.Thetechnologyisavailable,butthepedagogicapplicationisnotready.Thereissomedisagreementbetweenthesectorsandbetweeninvitedexpertsandweblinkrespondents.
Theprincipaldriversidentifiedinthisvisionare:• Policyonandregulationofprivacyanddataownership• Lackofclearconsensusonefficacyoflearninganalytics• Pedagogicapproachinstantiatedinlearninganalytics,andfittopedagogiccontext
4.2.2. Vision2:In2025,personaldatatrackingsupportslearningThemajorityofrespondentsfoundVision2tobeundesirable,butmostrespondentsalsofoundittobefeasible.Manyoftherequiredtechnologiesareperceivedasbeingcurrentlyavailable.Privacy
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wasaconcern,butusers’controlofdatawasseenasapositiveaspect.Doubtswereexpressedaboutthepedagogicefficacyofthevision.
Theprincipaldriversidentifiedinthisvisionare:• Users’controlofdata• Pedagogicefficacyoflearninganalytics• Readyavailabilityoftechnology• Distrustoftheprofitmotiveinlearninganalytics
4.2.3. Vision3:In2025,analyticsarerarelyusedineducationVision3wasratedtheleastdesirableofallvisions,withovertwiceasmany‘veryundesirable’(1)scoresasanyothervision.Thisresultcontrastswiththemixedandoftenambivalentresponsestotheparticularvisionsoftheuseoflearninganalyticspresentedtorespondents.Thisshowsgreatfaithintherelevanceandutilityoflearninganalytics,butalackofclarityofexactlyhowitthetechniquesshouldbeused.Respondentswereevenlysplitonwhetherthisvisionwasfeasible,inthebiggestcontrastbetweendesirabilityandfeasibilityofanyvision.Thereis,therefore,realconcernamongparticipantsinlearninganalyticsthatitwillnotachieveitspotential.
Theprincipaldriversidentifiedinthisvisionare:
• Confidenceinthefutureoflearninganalytics• Demonstrationoftheopportunitypresentedbytheavailabilityofdata,andthepotential
pedagogicbenefitsofanalytics• Policiesandregulationstoensuredataprivacy
4.2.4. Vision4:In2025,individualscontroltheirowndataVision4wasratedasbeingverydesirable,andamajorityofrespondentsalsothoughtthatitwasfeasible.Thisresultcorrelateswiththeconcernforusers’privacyandcontrolofdataexpressedinmanyoftheothervisions.Thereisthereforeastrongconsensusinthepopulationconsultedthatitisethicallyessentialtoregulatecontrolofusersdatasoastostrengthentherightsofthedatasubject,andthatthisisalsoanecessarystepiflearninganalyticsistobewidelyacceptable.Thereweresomeminorityvoiceswhichpointedoutthatthiswouldleadtolostopportunities,andthateducationinstitutionsalreadycollectedalotofdataaboutlearners.
Theprincipaldriversidentifiedinthisvisionare:• Concernsaboutlackofregulationtoensureusercontrolofdata• Socialacceptanceofmonitoring• Demonstrationofpedagogicefficacy
4.2.5. Vision5:In2025,opensystemsforlearninganalyticsarewidelyadoptedVision5hadmore‘verydesirable’(4)ratingsthananyothervision.Thereisthereforeaverystrongconsensusamongtherespondentsthatanopenandstandardscompliantinfrastructureforlearninganalyticsisessential.Theyalsobelievethatthisisanachievablegoal,butthatitwillrequireappropriatefundingfromnationalbodiesandtheEuropeanCommission.Aplaceisseenforcommercialorganisationswithinopenanalytics.Therewereveryfewnegativecommentsrelatingtothisvision.
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Theprincipaldriversidentifiedinthisvisionare:• Controlbyinstitutionsoftheirowninfrastructure• CommercialpressurefromeLearningproviders• Transparencyonthecollectionanduseofdata
4.2.6. Vision6:In2025,learninganalyticssystemsareessentialtoolsofeducationalmanagement
Vision6was,onbalance,positivelyperceivedinbothLikertscaleandfreetextresponses.However,respondentsfromtheschoolssectorwerelessenthusiasticthanothersectors,withmorerespondentsfindingit‘notdesirable’(1),than‘verydesirable’(4).Theyalsofounditlessfeasible.Thisindicatespotentialconflictintheimplementationofpredictiveanalyticsinschools.
Invitedexpertsassessedthescenarioasbeinglessfeasiblethandidrespondentstotheweblink,whichmayindicatethatthiscoreusecaseforlearninganalyticsmaybelesswellestablishedthanisgenerallyassumed.Thisalignswiththeconcernsexpressedbysomerespondentsthattheeffectiveimplementationofsuchsystemswillbemorecomplexthanisforeseen.
Theprincipaldriversidentifiedinthisvisionare:• Thedemonstrableeffectivenessoflearninganalyticsmethods• Socialacceptabilityofmonitoring• Thefitbetweenthepedagogyinstantiatedinlearninganalyticsmethods,andthepedagogic
context.• Policyonandregulationofethicsandprivacy
4.2.7. Vision7:In2025,mostteachingisdelegatedtocomputersVision7wastheleastpopularofallthepedagogicapproachestolearninganalyticsthatwerepresentedtorespondents.Objectionscentredontheproposalthat“Learnersnowspendmostoftheirtimeworkingwithanalytics-drivensystems,andtheroleofteachershasbeenreduced”,whichwasrejectedbymostrespondents,oftenstronglyso.Thisisconsistentwiththeresultsforothervisions,inwhichmanyrespondentsalsoplacegreatimportanceonface-to-facecommunicationwithteachers.Itisinterestingthatrespondentsfromtheworkplacewerestrongerintheiropinionthatthisapproachwasnotfeasible,eventhoughonemightexpectcomputerbasedtrainingtobebetterestablishedinthatsector.Thereweresurprisinglyfewreferencestoeconomicfactors,eventhoughthisisakeyaspectofthereplacementofteachersbymachines.
Theprincipaldriversidentifiedthisvisionare:• Pedagogicvisioninstantiatedinlearninganalytics,anditsfitwiththepedagogiccontext.• Lackofconsensusontheeffectivenessoflearninganalyticsinterventions• Policychecksonintrusiveanalyticssystems
4.2.8. Vision8:In2015,analyticssupportself-directedlearningVision8wasratedthemostdesirableofthepedagogicscenarioswhichwerepresentedtorespondentsthroughthevisions.Inbroadterms,thisisthekindofpedagogythattherespondentswouldliketoseeadopted,buttheywerealittlemorecautiousintermsoffeasibility.Inalignmentwithothervisionsthereisaperceivedgapbetweenthepedagogicwishesoftherespondents,andthelikelydevelopmentofthefield.
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Respondentsfrom‘schools’andthe‘workplace’weresomewhatlessenthusiasticthan‘highereducation’.Similarlytheinvitedexpertsweremorepositivethanrespondentstotheweblink,inbothdesirabilityandfeasibility.Thisdistinctioninvitesreflectionastowhetherasocio-technicaleliteisdrivinganagendawhichmaynotbeentirelywelcometothepeoplewhowillbeusingthesystems.Thelackofconsensuswasclearerinthefreetextresponses,where,despitethepopularityofthepedagogicapproachdescribed,manycommentsquestioneditsefficacy.Thisvisionraisesasyetunresolvedissuesofinteroperability,privacyandcertification.
Theprincipaldriversidentifiedinthisvisionwere:• Pedagogicapproachinstantiatedinthelearninganalyticsmethods,andfitwithpedagogic
context• Lackofconsensusonpedagogicmethodsforlearninganalytics• Interoperability• Policyonprivacyandcertification
4.3. TherangeofthemesinformingthejudgementsonthevisionsTable3showsthenumberoftimeseachthemecodewasappliedtothecorpus,togetherwiththekeywordsidentifiedinthecodedtexts.
Table3:Summarytableoftheapplicationofcodes,withkeywords
Theme No.codes
Keywords
Pedagogy 355 Educators,learn,learner,learning,pedagogy,teach,teacher,teaching.Power 313 BigBrother,datacontrol,empowerment,humanrights,law,misuse,
policy,surveillance.Complexity 238 Barrier,challenge,social,technology,understanding.Validity 187 Assumptions,education,generalizability,learning,reliability,researchPrivacy 180 Bigbrother,control,power,regulation,surveillance.Regulation 169 Government,guides,law,laws,legislation,legislature,policies,policy,
protocol,protocols,regulation,regulations,rules.Ethics 132 Abuse,context,culture,exploitation,personalisation,policy.Experience 109 Technology,communicationbarriers,failure,success,commercial
pressure,policies.Affect 102 Motivation,perception,transparency,volition.Cost 92 Budgetsavings,businessmodels,commercialmodels,costs,economic
models,fundingmodels,governmentfunding,marketplace,value.Alienation 91 Automation,communication,dystopia,humanity,intrusion,policy,
privacy,resistance,society.Standards 79 Standards,standardization,interoperability,API,IMS,LTI,Caliper,
ExperienceAPI,xAPI,TinCan,SC36.Temporality 64 Duration,initialstate,just-in-time,rate,speed,sufficiency,timescale.
Total: 2111
Thecodingofthecorpusoffreetextresponsesindicatesthatthetwokeyissueswhichconcerntherespondentsare:
• thepedagogicaleffectivenessand/orappropriatenessoflearninganalyticsinterventions• thesocio-politicalimplicationsofdatagatheringandoflearninganalyticsmethods.
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Thesefindingscomplementtheanalysisoftheindividualvisions,andlargelyconfirmtheconclusionswhichcanbedrawnfromtheindividualvisions,aswenowdiscuss.
4.4. OverallfindingsInthissectionwedrawtogethertheresultsoftheLikertscaleanalysis,theanalysisbyvisions,andthethematicanalysisofthecorpusoffreetextresponses.Foreachofthevisionsthedriversidentifiedintheresponsestothevisionswererelatedbytheteamtopolicyinterventionswhichwouldbeconsistentwiththeaspirationsforlearninganalyticsexpressedbytherespondents.
Weidentifysixprincipalfindings:
Finding1:AquestionmarkovertheprospectsforlearninganalyticsachievingitspotentialTheresponsetoVision3:Learninganalyticsarerarelyusedineducationwas,asonemightexpectfromthispopulation,aresoundingrejection.Therespondentsfeltstronglythatlearninganalyticshadalottocontributetoeducation,andthattheopportunitytoreapthebenefitsshouldnotbelost.However,thishighlyundesirableoutcomewasseenbymanyasbeingfeasible,withaslightmajorityviewingitasbeingfeasibleorveryfeasible.Learninganalyticsisthereforenotseenasanunstoppabletrend,butasanapproachwithgreatpotentialwhichisstillatanearlyandsensitivestageofitsdevelopment.
Thistrendwasalsoseenintheresponsestoothervisions.Indeedinonlyonevisionisthereagoodmatchbetweendesirabilityandfeasibility.ThisisVision6:Learninganalyticssystemsareessentialtoolswhichisseenquitepositivelyinboth.IncontrastVisions4,5,and8areverypositivelyratedfordesirability,butrespondentsaremuchlessoptimisticthattheyarefeasible.Theconverseistrueforvisions1,2,3and7,whichratedasclearlyundesirable,butrespondentsareconcernedthattherearerealprospectsthattheywillcomeabout.Thisisindicativeofalearninganalyticscommunitywhichhasseriousdoubtsaboutthedesirabilityofmanyofthepotentialscenariosforlearninganalytics,andhaslowlevelsofconfidencethatpositiveoutcomeswillbeforthcoming.
Thedriversforlearninganalyticsassociatedwiththisresultare:
• Confidenceinasuccessfulfutureforlearninganalytics• Theopportunitypresentedbytheavailabilityofdataandthepotentialpedagogicbenefitsof
analytics• Policiesandregulationstoensuredataprivacy
Therecommendedactionsalignedwiththesedriversare
• Providesupportforpilotingandthedemonstrationofpedagogicbenefitsfromlearninganalytics
• Providesupportforresearchintotheefficacyoflearninganalytics• Developalternativecertificationprocesses• Ensuretheparticipationofhumansinteaching• Ensurelearninganalyticsisinformedbypedagogy• Researchandpromoteappropriatepedagogiesforlearninganalytics• Formulateandimplementationofpoliciesandregulationstoensuredataprivacy
• Institutionsshouldcreateandapplyprotocolsandpoliciestogovernethicsandprivacy(x4)
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• Regulatorybodiesshouldacttogoverndatacollectionanduse,andenforcedataprivacypolicyintooling
Finding2:PoliciesandinfrastructureTheresponsestoVision4:In2025,individualscontroltheirowndatarateditasbeingverydesirable,andamajorityofrespondentsalsothoughtthatitwasfeasible.Thereisastrongconsensusthatitisethicallyessentialtoregulatecontrolofusersdatasoastostrengthentherightsofthedatasubject,andthatthisisalsoanecessarystepiflearninganalyticsistobewidelyacceptable.Thereweresomeminorityvoiceswhichpointedoutthatthiswouldleadtolostopportunities,andthateducationinstitutionsalreadycollectedalotofdataaboutlearners.Thisresultisalsoatoddswithcurrentpracticeinlearninganalytics,andinfluentialcurrentcodesofpracticepublishedbyJiscandOpenUniversityUK.
TherewasasimilarlystrongconsensusforVision5,indicatingthatanopenandstandardscompliantinfrastructureforlearninganalyticsisessentialinordertomakeprogress.Therewerealmostnodissentingvoicestothisvision.
Theseresultsrelatetotwostrongdriversforthefutureoflearninganalytics:
• Availabilityofasharedopeninfrastructureforlearninganalytics• Thecreationofastrongregulatoryframeworktogoverndataownership,collectionanduse.
Thesedriversarealignedwithrecommendedactionsforgovernments,agenciesandtheCommissiontosupport
• Institutionsshouldcreateandapplyprotocolsandpoliciestogovernethicsandprivacy• Regulatorybodiesshouldacttogoverndatacollectionanduse,andenforcedataprivacy
policyintooling• Developofcommondatamodels,specifications,standardsandpolicies.• Developanopeninfrastructure.Respondentsmentionedpotentialpartnersinthiswork,
includingApereoandSoLAR.• Supportinternationalandnationalcollaborationbetweeninstitutions
Finding3:AconsensusonpedagogyIncodingthefreetextresponses,‘pedagogy’wasthemostfrequentlyusedtag,byasubstantialmargin(seeTable4:Numberofapplicationsofcodesinthe8visions,below).Inbroadtermsthepedagogicapproacheswhichwerefavouredbymostrespondentsintheircommentscouldbecharacterisedasconstructivistandteacherled,ratherthanbeingfocusedoncompetencesandmasteryofcontent.Doubtwasalsoexpressedaboutthemetricsusedtoassessteachingandlearning.Therewasaconsensusthatitisessentialforhumanbeingstoremainatthecentreoftheteachingprocess,andthatlearninganalyticsshouldnotimplyautomationofteachingandlearning.The‘pedagogy’tagcanbeassociatedwiththe‘validity’tag(thefourthmostused),whichwasusedtoindicatethosecommentswhichquestionedthepedagogiceffectivenessoflearninganalyticsinterventions,orstressedthatthisshouldbedemonstratedanddisseminated.Togetherthe‘pedagogy’and‘validity’tagsaccountedformorethanaquarterofthecodesapplied.
ThistrendwasconfirmedbytheresponsetoVision7,whichwastheleastpopularofallthepedagogicapproachestolearninganalyticsthatwerepresentedtorespondents.Objectionscentred
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ontheproposalthat“Learnersnowspendmostoftheirtimeworkingwithanalytics-drivensystems,andtheroleofteachershasbeenreduced”,whichwasrejectedbymostrespondents,oftenstronglyso.Thisisconsistentwiththeresultsforothervisions,inwhichmanyrespondentsalsoplacegreatimportanceonface-to-facecommunicationwithteachers.Itisinterestingthatrespondentsfromtheworkplacewerestrongerintheiropinionthatthisapproachwasnotfeasible,eventhoughonemightexpectcomputerbasedtrainingtobebetterestablishedinthatsector.Thereweresurprisinglyfewreferencestoeconomicfactors,eventhoughthisisakeyaspectofthereplacementofteachersbymachines.ThemostpositivelyviewedpedagogicscenariowasthatinVision8,inwhichcollaborativeinquirybasedlearningwassupportedbyanalytics.
Theconsensuswasnotunanimous,andsomerespondentsstressedthepotentialbenefitsthatautomatedteaching.
Theseresultsrelatetothefollowingdrivers
• Alignmentbetweenthepedagogiesinstantiatedinlearninganalyticsmethodsandthecontextinwhichtheyaredeployed
• Enthusiasm,orevenjustacceptance,fromtheteacherswhowillbeusinglearninganalyticssystems.
Thesedriversalignwiththefollowingactions:
• Fundandcarryoutresearchintothepedagogicuseoflearninganalytics.• Buildtrustandcollaborationbetweeneducationalistsandtechnologists• Providesupportforresearchintotheefficacyoflearninganalytics,andintothe
appropriatepedagogiesforlearninganalytics• Providesupportforpilotingandthedemonstrationofpedagogicbenefitsfromlearning
analytics
Finding4:Power,ethics,anddataownershipIssuesofsocialandpoliticalpower,ethics,andownershiparecentralfactorstothefutureoflearninganalytics.Theclusterofcodes‘power’(thesecondmostappliedcode),‘privacy’,‘regulation’and‘ethics’togetheraccountedformorethanathirdofthecodesapplied.Whilethecodescanbeclearlydistinguished,buthaveacommonthreadintheresults.‘Power’wasrelatedtoboththeexerciseofpowertoobtaindata,andtheuseofdataanalysistoreinforcepower.‘Privacy’and‘regulation’bothprincipallyrelatedtothedesireamongrespondentsfordatasubjectstohavemorecontroloverthedatawhichtheygenerate,andtheusestowhichitisput.Ethics,similarly,veryoftenrelatedtothemanagementofdata.Togetherthesecodesindicateawidespreadconcernthatthebenefitsofanalyticsmaybethreatenedbyareactionagainstintrusivecollectionofdata,andinappropriateuseoftheresultsofanalysis.
Theseresultsofthecodingarereflectedintheresponsestothevisions,inwhicheveryvisionreceivedcommentsfromusersthatmentionedtheseissues.
Theseresultsrelatetothefollowingdrivers:
• Socialandpoliticalconsensusontheappropriatecollectionanduseofdata.• Trustintheresponsiblecollectionanduseofdata.
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Theactionsalignedwiththesedriversare
• Developmentofpoliciesandsystemsthatsupportthecontrolofdatabydatasubjects.• Promotionoftransparencyandaccountabilityinthecollectionanduseofdata• Institutionsshouldcreateandapplyprotocolsandpoliciestogovernethicsandprivacy• Regulatorybodiesshouldacttogoverndatacollectionanduse,andenforcedataprivacy
policyintooling
Finding5:Disagreementbetweensectors,andbetweendifferentgroupsofrespondentsThepopulationforthestudywasdividedintothreesectors(school,workplaceandhighereducation),andtwosourcesofrespondents(invitedexpertsandthosewhorepliedtotheweblink).Thedifferencesbetweenthesefivegroupsarenotverylarge,butareworthattendingto.Togivesomeexamples:
• Vision1isclearlyaimedattheschoolclassroom,andtheresultsshowthatrespondentsfromschoolsweresubstantiallymorepositiveintheirassessmentofthevisionthanwerethosefromhighereducationortheworkplace.Almosttwiceasmanyrespondentstotheweblinkfoundthevisiontobe‘veryundesirable’thandidinvitedexperts,
• ForVision5forboththeSchoolsectorandtheWorkplacesectorthelargestnumberofrespondentsindicatedthatthevisionwasratherinfeasible(2).InHigherEducation,ontheotherhandthelargestnumberofrespondentsthoughtitfeasible(3),withalargenumberassertingthatitwasveryfeasible(4).ThefactthatthereweremanymorerespondentsfromHigherEducationthanothersectorsmeansthatthisviewprevailsintheoverallresults.Butitwouldbewisetotakenoteofthegreaterbarriersthatareperceivedtoopenlearninganalyticsinschools.
• Vision6wasseenasmarkedlylessdesirableandfeasiblebyrespondentsfromtheschoolssector.Similarly,respondentswhoaccessedthesurveythroughtheweblinkfoundthevisiontobesubstantiallymorefeasiblethandidtheinvitedexperts.
Thesedifferencesuggestthattheremaybeagapinunderstandingbetweenexpertsandpractitionersontheground.Thepossibilityshouldbeconsideredthatasocio-technicaleliteisproposingsystemsandmethodsthatarenotentirelywelcomedbypractitionersinthefield.Itshouldberememberedthattherespondentswerealleitherselectedorself-selectedenthusiastsforlearninganalytics,andthiseffectmightbeconsiderablylargerinthewidercommunity.
Thedriverindicatedbythisfindingis:
• Alignmentoftheresearchanddevelopmentinterestsofthelearninganalyticscommunitywiththeinterestsandprioritiesofthosewhosefocusisthedaytodayactivitiesofteachingandlearning
Theactionalignedwiththisdriveris
• Supportresearchintotherealityoflearninganalyticsincontext• Fundcoordinationactivitieswhichreachacrossthecommunitiesofpractice
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Finding6:TechnologyRespondentsseemedsatisfiedwiththetechnologywhichisalreadyavailable,andconfidentthatitwillcontinuetodevelop.
Thisresultrelatestothefollowingdriver:
• Continuingtechnologicalinnovation
Theresultssuggestthatnopolicyinterventionisrequiredtomaintainthepaceofinnovationintheunderlyingtechnologyusedbylearninganalytics.
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5. FutureStepsWehavefounditfascinatingtoengagewiththelearninganalyticscommunityincarryingoutthisstudy.Webelievethatpolicymakerswillfindtheresultstobeveryrelevant,andthatthecommunitywhichhascontributedtothestudywillbeveryinterestedinseeingthereflectionofitsjudgementsonthefutureoflearninganalytics.
Wealsobelievethatthedatawhichwehavegeneratedisarichresourcewhichcanbefurthermined.Inparticulartherearestatisticalmethodswhichcanbeappliedtothedatawhichmayresultinadditionalinsight,inparticularinthecomparisonoftheviewsofdifferentgroupsofrespondents.Furtheranalysisofthecorpusoffreetextmayalsobeworthwhile,perhapsusingstatisticaltools.
WehavealreadyheldanumberofconsultationswithstakeholderconcerningtheVisionsoftheFuturestudy.ThisworkwillbecontinuedatLAK,whereapanelabouttheVisionsoftheFuturestudyhasbeenaccepted.Theseactivitiesareimportantintwoways.Firstly,theyreflectbackjudgementsofthefutureoflearninganalyticstothecommunitythatgeneratedthem,providingtheopportunitytotestthatthepopulationincludedinthestudyisindeedrepresentativeofthefullrangeofactorsinvolvedinlearninganalytics.Secondly,theconclusionsareatahigherlevelofabstractionthanthevisionswhichstimulatedtheresponses,andtheyproposeaninterpretationoftheimplicationsoftheresponses.Itisimportanttocontrastthisinterpretationwiththejudgementsofthelearninganalytics,bothtoexposeinconsistenciesbetweenparticipants’judgementsaboutlearninganalyticsindifferentcontexts,andalsotocritiquethestudies’interpretationofthedata.
FollowingtheLAKconferencetheteamintendedtobuildontheseconsultations,andonfurtheranalysisofthecorpus,inthewritingofajournalpaperwhichwillsetoutthefinalconclusionsofthisworkwithintheLACEproject.Thepaperwillbereadyforsubmissionbythecloseoftheproject.
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ReferencelistBuckinghamShum,S.,2015.WritinganalyticsandtheLAK15“StateoftheField”panel(20March
2015).Simon.BuckinghamShum.net.Availableat:http://simon.buckinghamshum.net/2015/03/writing-analytics-lak15-panel/[AccessedFebruary5,2016].
Goodyear,P.etal.,2004.AdvancesinResearchonNetworkedLearning,KluwerAcademicPublishers,Norwell,Massachusetts.
Helmer-Hirschberg,O.,1967.AnalysisoftheFuture:TheDelphiMethod,Availableat:http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/papers/2008/P3558.pdf.
Horn,M.,2014.inBloom’sCollapseOffersLessonsForInnovationInEducation.Forbes.
Kurzweil,R.,2005.TheSingularityisNear,London:Duckworth.
RANDCorporation,TheDelphiMethod.Availableat:http://www.rand.org/topics/delphi-method.html[AccessedFebruary5,2016].
Sclater,N.,2014.Codeofpracticeforlearninganalytics,Availableat:http://repository.jisc.ac.uk/5661/1/Learning_Analytics_A-_Literature_Review.pdf.
Sharples,M.,2000.Thedesignofpersonalmobiletechnologiesforlifelonglearning.Computers&Education,34(3-4),pp.177–193.
Siemens,G.,2005.Connectivism:Alearningtheoryforthedigitalage.InternationalJournalofInstructionalTechnologyandDistanceLearning,2(1).
Suthers,D.&Verbert,K.,2013.Learninganalyticsasa“middlespace.”InDanSuthersetal.,eds.ProceedingsoftheThirdInternationalConferenceonLearningAnalyticsandKnowledge(LAK’13).ACM,NewYork,NY,USA,pp.1–4.
TheOpenUniversity,2014.PolicyonEthicaluseofStudentDataforLearningAnalytics.,p.11.Availableat:http://www.open.ac.uk/students/charter/sites/www.open.ac.uk.students.charter/files/files/ecms/web-content/ethical-use-of-student-data-policy.pdf.
Turoff,M.,1970.TheDesignofaPolicyDelphi.TechnologicalForecastingandSocialChange,2(2),pp.149–171.
Turoff,M.&Linstone,H.A.,2002.ThePolicyDelphi.,2(2),pp.80–96.
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofEducationalTechnology,2015.EdTechDeveloper’sGuide:APrimerforSoftwareDevelopers,StartupsandEntrepreneurs,Availableat:http://tech.ed.gov/files/2015/04/Developer-Toolkit.pdf.
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Appendices
Appendix1.GraphicalrepresentationoftheLikertscaleresultsChartswerepreparedshowingrespondentsresponsestotheLikertscalequestionsonthefeasibilityanddesirabilityofeachvision.Thechartsareasfollows:
1.1Personalinformation
Figure10:Respondentsknowledgeoflearninganalytics
Figure11:Respondentsbysector
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1.2 DesirabilityandFeasibility:alldata
Figure12:Alldesirabilitydata
Figure13:Allfeasibilitydata
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Vision1(N=53)
Vision2(N=48)
Vision3(N=62)
Vision4(N=54)
Vision5(N=58)
Vision6(N=55)
Vision7(N=53)
Vision8(N=59)
Percen
t
Feasibility
1.Notfeasible
2
3
4.Veryfeasible
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1.3Desirabilitybysector
Figure14:Desirabilitydatachartedbysector
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1.4 Feasibilitybysector
Figure15:Feasibilitydatachartedbysector
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Vision1(N=14)
Vision2(N=19)
Vision3(N=22)
Vision4(N=18)
Vision5(N=20)
Vision6(N=16)
Vision7(N=15)
Vision8(N=21)
Percen
t
Feasibility/School
1.Notfeasible 2 3 4.Veryfeasible
05
101520253035404550
Vision1(N=12)
Vision2(N=13)
Vision3(N=16)
Vision4(N=15)
Vision5(N=15)
Vision6(N=13)
Vision7(N=16)
Vision8(N=19)
Percen
t
Feasibility/Workplace
1.Notfeasible 2 3 4.Veryfeasible
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Vision1(N=47)
Vision2(N=40)
Vision3(N=54)
Vision4(N=47)
Vision5(N=50)
Vision6(N=49)
Vision7(N=47)
Vision8(N=50)
Percen
t
Feasibility/HE
1.Notfeasible 2 3 4.Veryfeasible
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1.5 Desirabilitybysourceofrespondents
Figure16:Desirabilitydatachartedbyrespondents(respondedtodirect/general)invitation
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1.6 Feasibilitybysourceofrespondents
Figure17:Feasibilitydatachartedbyrespondents(respondedtodirect/general)invitation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Vision1(N=25)
Vision2(N=22)
Vision3(N=33)
Vision4(N=28)
Vision5(N=30)
Vision6(N=30)
Vision7(N=30)
Vision8(N=34)
Percen
t
Feasibility
1.Notfeasible
2
3
4.Veryfeasible
Respondentsinvitedbyemail
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Vision1(N=28)
Vision2(N=26)
Vision3(N=29)
Vision4(N=26)
Vision5(N=28)
Vision6(N=25)
Vision7(N=23)
Vision8(N=25)
Percen
t
Feasibility
1.Notfeasible
2
3
4.Veryfeasible
Respondentsviaweblink
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Appendix2:CodingsummarychartThischartshowshowmanytimeseachofthe13themesappearedinthecodingoftheSurveyMonkeydata.Thecodingispresentedtoshowthecodingfordesirability,feasibilityandactionsforeachoftheeightVisionsthatwerepresentedforcomment.
Table4:Numberofapplicationsofcodesinthe8visions
AffectAlienationComplexityCosts Ethics Experience Pedagogy Power Privacy Regulations Standards TemporalValidity
Vision1 Learnersaremonitoredbytheirlearningenvironments
Desirability 8 12 6 2 4 4 24 15 15 1 1 4 12
Feasibility 4 2 17 6 2 13 9 5 4 3 0 3 10
Actions 11 2 10 6 8 1 12 11 9 11 2 3 13
Vision2Learners’personaldataaretracked
Desirability 6 3 10 2 15 0 26 13 5 0 0 1 11
Feasibility 3 3 19 0 5 2 20 3 1 2 0 2 8
Actions 0 2 8 1 7 1 11 8 5 6 0 0 7
Vision3 Analyticsarerarelyused
Desirability 9 2 2 0 9 9 13 9 8 8 0 6 8
Feasibility 4 2 5 2 7 12 8 13 3 8 0 3 2
Actions 2 4 4 2 5 4 9 13 6 18 3 0 2
Vision4 Learnerscontroltheirowndata
Desirability 1 0 5 2 9 2 19 30 26 9 0 1 5
Feasibility 3 3 18 4 2 0 8 17 35 13 8 2 2
Actions 1 2 14 7 4 3 6 12 38 22 4 3 0
Vision5 Opensystemsarewidelyadopted
Desirability 13 2 7 6 7 7 11 23 3 3 18 7 9
Feasibility 3 1 17 15 3 7 6 20 4 3 9 8 3
Actions 6 0 4 7 6 4 7 23 4 12 13 2 4
Vision6 Learninganalyticsareessentialtools
Desirability 5 6 5 4 5 2 20 8 2 0 0 3 16
Feasibility 1 5 14 4 2 11 4 8 3 6 1 3 11
Actions 0 6 11 4 7 1 9 11 4 10 2 0 8
Vision7 Analyticshelplearnersmaketherightchoices
Desirability 13 15 5 2 9 7 39 14 2 2 3 3 10
Feasibility 7 5 7 3 3 11 19 11 1 2 4 5 8
Actions 2 5 4 3 6 1 13 14 1 5 3 2 10
Vision8 Analyticshavelargelyreplacedteachers
Desirability 0 6 12 3 4 0 33 11 0 0 0 1 12
Feasibility 0 1 22 5 1 6 5 13 0 5 2 2 11
Actions 0 2 12 2 2 1 24 8 1 20 6 0 5
TOTALS 102 91 238 92 132 109 355 313 180 169 79 64 187
AffectAlienationComplexityCosts Ethics Experience Pedagogy Power Privacy Regulations Standards TemporalValidity
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Appendix3:VisionsoftheFutureThisAppendixsetsouttheeightscenariosthatwereusedinthePolicyDelphistudy.Thescenariosweredevelopedbythefiveauthorsofthisreport,eachofwhomhaswideexperienceofthefieldoflearninganalytics.TheywerethenrevisedandextendedinconsultationwiththewholeLACEteam,inordertobringinotherexpertiseandperspectives.Thevisionswereintendedasprovocationsthatwouldproducereactions;theywerenotintendedtoreflecttheviewsofprojectmembersoroftheLACEprojectasawhole.
Eachoftheeightscenariosbeginswithashortsummaryandthenbrieflycontraststhesituationin2015withtheenvisagedscenarioin2025.Thebodyofthescenariosetsoutthisvision,andsomeofitspossibleimplications,inmoredetail.
3.1 Vision1:In2025,classroomsmonitorthephysicalenvironmenttosupportlearningandteaching
In2015,learninganalyticsweremainlyusedtosupportonlinelearning.By2025,theycanbeusedtosupportmostteachingandlearningactivities,whereverthesetakeplace.Furniture,pens,writingpads–almostanytoolusedduringlearning–canbefittedwithsensors.Thesecanrecordmanysortsofinformation,includingtilt,forceandposition.Videocamerasusingfacialrecognitionareabletotrackindividualsastheylearn.Thesecamerasmonitormovements,andrecordexactlyhowlearnersworkwithandmanipulateobjects.Allthisinformationisusedtomonitorlearners’progress.Individualsaresupportedinlearningawiderangeofphysicalskills.Teachersarealertedtosignsofindividuallearner’sboredom,confusion,anddeviationfromtask.Teachersandmanagersareabletomonitorsocialinteractions,andtoidentifywheretheyshouldnurturesocialisationandcooperativebehaviour.
3.2 Vision2:In2025,personaldatatrackingsupportslearningIn2015,peoplewerebeginningtoweardevicessuchasheart-ratemonitorsandrun-trackersastheywentabouttheirdailylives.By2025,sophisticatedsensorscangatherpersonalinformationaboutfactorssuchasposture,attention,rest,stress,bloodsugar,andmetabolicrate.Peoplecollectthisinformationabouttheiractivities,andfeeditintoprogrammesoftheirchoicethatproviderecommendationsonhowtoactinwaysthatimprovetheirlearning.Learnerscandownloadthestatisticsanddatathatareassociatedwithsuccessfullearninginacertainarea.Aligningpersonaldatawiththese‘ideal’setsisclaimedtohelppeopletomasterskillsasdiverseasswimming,driving,carryingoutsurgeryandpassingexaminations.Academicstarssellprogrammesusingthisdatatooptimiselearningfordifferentagesandcourses.Businessgurusmarketsimilarprogrammesfortopicssuchaspresentationskillsandworkloadmanagement.Somelearnerscreateandsharetheirowndataanalysisprogrammes,whichproviderecommendationsthatoftenincludetheconsumptionofhigh-energyfoodsandstimulants.Themajorityofhigh-schoolanduniversitystudentsfollowself-monitoringprogrammes,anddiscussthemeritsoftheseonsocialmedia.
3.3 Vision3:In2025,analyticsarerarelyusedineducationIn2015,manypeoplehopedthatanalyticswouldbeabletoimproveteachingandlearningandtheenvironmentswherethesetakeplace.However,in2025,itisclearthattherearemanyproblems.Coursesthatareautomatedbyanalyticsareseenasinferior,andlearnershaverealisedthattheycangamethesystem.Therehavebeenmajorleaksofsensitivepersonaldata,anditisclearthat,evenwherethishasnothappened,manycompanieshavemisusedthedatageneratedbytheir
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analytics.Manygovernmentshaveruledthatindividualsarethesoleownersofthedatatheygenerate.Alluseofdataforeducationalpurposesnowhastobeapprovednotonlybythelearnerbutalsobynewinspectorates.Inpracticethishasmeantthatuseofanalyticsisrestrictedtosummativeassessmentcarriedoutbygovernmentagencies.Aconsensushasemergedineducationalpolicy:themoveawayfromlearninganalyticsisnotonlyethicallydesirableitisalsoeducationallyeffective.
3.4 Vision4:In2025,individualscontroltheirowndataIn2015,itwasnotclearwhoownededucationaldata,anditwasoftenusedwithoutlearners’knowledge.By2025,mostpeopleareawareoftheimportanceandvalueoftheirdata.Learnerscontrolthetypeandquantityofpersonaldatathattheyshare,andwithwhomtheyshareit.Thisincludesinformationaboutprogress,attendanceandexamresults,aswellasdatacollectedbycamerasandsensors.Learnerscanchoosetolimitthetimeforwhichaccessisallowed,ortheycanrestrictaccesstospecificorganisationsandindividuals.Thetoolsformakingthesechoicesareclearlylaidoutandeasytouse.Inthecaseofchildren,datadecisionsaremadeinconsultationwithparentsorcarers.Iftheydonotengagewiththesetools,thennodataissharedandnobenefitsgained.Mosteducationalinstitutionsrecognisethisasapotentialproblem,andruncampaignstoraiseawarenessoftheboththerisksofthoughtlessexposureofdata,andthebenefitstolearnersofinformedsharingofselectededucationaldata.
3.5 Vision5:In2025,opensystemsforlearninganalyticsarewidelyadoptedIn2015,companiesproducedarangeoflearninganalyticstools,usingdifferentapproachesandstandards.Thealgorithmsandmodelsthatcompaniesuseareoftenprotectedasintellectualproperty.By2025,the‘openlearninganalytics’establishedbytheOpenLearningAnalyticsFoundationhasmadeamorejoined-upapproachpossible.EducationalorganisationsseelearninganalyticsasacentralelementoftheirITprovision.Theydemandcontroloverthesetools,howtheyrunandwhattheyareusedfor.Thetoolstheyselect,althoughtheycomefromdifferentproviders,useopenalgorithmsandsharedataaccordingtoanagreedsetofstandardsthatfacilitatetransparencyandindependentvalidation.Asetofwell-tested,accessibleandstandardisedvisualisationmethodsiscommonlyused,sothatlearnersandteacherscanconfidentlyusearangeoftools.Institutionscaneasilyworkwitharangeofproviderstodesignlearninganalyticssystemsthatsupporttheirstrategicvision.
3.6 Vision6:In2025,learninganalyticssystemsareessentialtoolsofeducationalmanagement
In2015,companieswerebeginningtodevelopsystemstorecommendresourcesandtopredictoutcomes.By2025,thesesystemsarehighlydeveloped.Awiderangeofdataaboutlearnerbehaviourisusedtogenerategoodquality,real-timepredictionsaboutlikelysuccess.Learners,teachers,managersandpolicymakersallhaveaccesstoliveandaccurateinformationabouthowwellalearnerislikelytodo.Learnersandteachersplantheirworkonthebasisofreliabletoolsthatcanproducedetailedandpersonalisedrecommendationsaboutwhatshouldbedonetoachievethebestlearningoutcomes.Agrowingindustryoffersservicestoinstitutionsandindividuals,advisingonhowtorespondtopredictionsgeneratedbyanalytics,andhowtotakeappropriateactioninthelightofrecommendations.Accuratepredictiveinformationenablesmanagersandpolicymakerstoexpandorcontractlearningprovisionbeforesuccessorfailureisevident:youdon’thavetowaittoseeifacourseisboomingorfailing,withfundingchangeshappeningquickly.
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3.7 Vision7:In2025,mostteachingisdelegatedtocomputersIn2015,peoplewerebeginningtoassembledatasetsthatcouldrepresentlearner’sactivities.By2025,theseareusedonalargescaleinteaching,andthishasledtothedevelopmentofenormousdatasetscontaininginformationabouthundredsofthousandsoflearners.Analysingindetailtheprogressofsuchawidevarietyoflearnershasmadeitpossibletoprovidereliableevidence-basedrecommendationsaboutthemostsuccessfulroutestolearning,aswellasidentifyingthelearningmaterialsandapproachesthataremostsuitableforeachindividualateachpointintheirprogress.Theserecommendationsarebetterinformedandmorereliablethanthosethatcanbeproducedbyeventhebest-trainedhumans.Learnersnowspendmostoftheirtimeworkingwithanalytics-drivensystems,andtheroleofteachershasbeenreduced.Theevidencegeneratedbytheuseofthesesystemsdriveseducationpolicy.
3.8 Vision8:In2025,analyticssupportself-directedautonomouslearningIn2015,learnersineducationalinstitutionsandinbusinesseshadtofollowacurriculumdevelopedbyothers.In2025,theycreategroupsthatworktogethertodecidetheirlearninggoalsandhowtoachievethese.A‘LearningTrajectorySystem’usesanalyticstosupportinformationexchangeandgroupcollaborations,andlearnersreceivesupportfrommentors,ratherthanteachers.Activitytowardsalearninggoalismonitored,andanalyticsprovideindividualswithfeedbackontheirlearningprocess.Thisincludessuggestions,includingpeerlearnerstocontact,expertstoapproach,relevantcontent,andwaysofdevelopinganddemonstratingnewskills.Formativeassessmentisusedtoguidefutureprogress,takingintoaccountindividuals’characteristics,experienceandcontext,replacingexamsthatshowonlywhatstudentshaveachieved.Textsandotherlearningmaterialsareadaptedtosuittheculturalcharacteristicsoflearners,revealedbyanalysisoftheirinteractions.Asaresult,learnersarepersonallyengagedwiththeirtopics,andaremotivatedbytheirhighlyautonomouslearning.Thecompetencesthattheydeveloparevaluableinasocietyinwhichcollectionandanalysisofdataarethenorm.Thereisalsoconvergencebetweenthelearningactivitiesoftheeducationsystemandthemethodsusedbyemployeestodeveloptheirknowledgeandskills.
Appendix4:Informationforparticipants
4.1 Pre-surveyOnenteringthesurvey,theparticipantswerepresentedwiththefollowinginformation:
WelcometoLACE'svisionsofthefuturestudy
Theaimofthisstudyistoconsiderviewsonthefutureoflearninganalyticsintermsofwhatisdesirable,whatisfeasibleandtheobstaclestomakingwhatisdesirablehappen.TheLACEProjecthascreatedeightvisionsofthefutureoflearninganalytics.Eachvisionillustratesadifferentaspectofthewaythatlearninganalyticscouldtransformourlivesbytheyear2025.Thestudyintendstodrawoutdifferencesofperceptionandvisionfromyourselfandawidegroupofstakeholders,researchersandpractitionerexpertsonlearninganalytics.Inthequestionnaireyouwillbepresentedwithashortvisionstatement,andaskedifyoufindthisvisiontobedesirableandfeasible,andwhatwouldbeneededtobringitabout.
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Therearesomequestionsforwhichananswerisrequired,markedwithanasterisk(*).Ifyoufeelyoudonothavetheknowledgetoprovideaninformedresponsepleaseselecttheanswer"Idonotfeelqualifiedtorespond".Togiveyoutimeforfullconsiderationofyourfreetextresponses,youwillinitiallybeaskedtogiveyourviewsonthreevisions.Whenyouhavefinishedthese,youhavetheoptiontostop,oryoucancontinue,and,ofcourse,wewillbeverygratefulifyoucandothis.Weestimatethatitwilltakeyou60minutestorespondtoalleightvisions.Youcanstopatanytimeandreturntorestartatthepointyoufinished.Ifyoufinishalleightvisions,youwillbeinvitedtoaddyourownvisions,ifyouthinkthatanythingismissing.TheresultsofthestudywillbepublishedasaLACELearningAnalyticsReviewpaper.Theinformationwhichyouprovideinthissurveywillbeanonymisedbeforepublication.Wearehowever,requestingthatyouprovidealittleinformationaboutyourknowledgeofthearea.Wewouldalsobegratefulfortheopportunitytocontactyouifwehaveanyqueriesorfurtherquestionsinrelationtoyourcomments,andsowerequestthatyouprovideyouremailaddresswhenyoufinishanswering.However,ifyouwouldprefertoansweranonymously,thatisalsopossible.Inrecognitionofyourparticipationwewillsendyouanadvancecopyofour“VisionsoftheFuture”papersprovidedyougiveusyouremailaddress(youwillhaveanopportunitytothisonalaterpage).IfyouhaveanyquestionsaboutthestudypleasecontactAndrewBrasher:[email protected].
Pleasenote:ThissurveyisusingSurveymonkeyandanyinformationyouenterwillbestoredtemporarilyintheUS.Bytakingpartinthesurveyyouareconsentingtoanyinformationthatcanidentifyyouasanindividualbeingstoredinthisway.
4.2 PostsurveyOnlastpageofsurveytheparticipantswereasked:
Wemaywanttoquoteyourresponsestothissurveyanonymouslyinreportsandpublications.Pleaseletusknowifyouagreethatwecan.
Yes,youcanquotemyresponsesanonymouslyinreportsandpublications
No,youcannotquotemyresponsesanonymouslyinreportsandpublications
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About
VersionHistoryDate Notes Person11Jan2016 Initialdraft DaiGriffiths,UOB
AndrewBrasher,OUUKRebeccaFerguson,OUUKDougClow,OUUKLiYuan,UOB
29Jan2016 Versionforinternalreview DaiGriffiths04Feb2016 Annotatedreviews RebeccaFerguson,Maren
Scheffel,HendrikDraschler09Feb2016 Finalversion DaiGriffiths09Feb2016 ClearedforsubmissiontotheEC HendrikDrachsler,Maren
Scheffel
Aboutthisdocument(c)2016,DaiGriffiths,AndrewBrasher,DougClow,RebeccaFerguson,LiYuan
LicensedforuseunderthetermsoftheCreativeCommonsAttributionv4.0licence.Attributionshouldbe“byDaiGriffiths,AndrewBrasher,DougClow,RebeccaFerguson,andLiYuan,fortheLACEProject(http://www.laceproject.eu)”.
Formoreinformation,seetheLACEPublicationPolicy:http://www.laceproject.eu/publication-policy/.Note,inparticular,thatsomeimagesusedinLACEpublicationsmaynotbefreelyre-used.
AboutLACETheLACEprojectbringstogetherexistingkeyEuropeanplayersinthefieldsoflearninganalytics&educationaldataminingwhoarecommittedtobuildingcommunitiesofpracticeandsharingemergingbestpracticeinordertomakeprogresstowardsfourobjectives.
Objective1–PromoteknowledgecreationandexchangeObjective2–IncreasetheevidencebaseObjective3–ContributetothedefinitionoffuturedirectionsObjective4–Buildconsensusoninteroperabilityanddatasharing
http://www.laceproject.eu@laceprojecthttp://lanyrd.com/profile/laceproject/https://www.linkedin.com/groups/Learning-Analytics-Community-Exchange-LACE-8133802
ThisdocumentwasproducedwithfundingfromtheEuropeanCommissionSeventhFrameworkProgrammeaspartoftheLACEproject:grantnumber619424