learning event no. 6, session 1: ringler. ardd2012 rio
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Presentation by Claudia Ringler, IFPRI, at the 2012 Agriculture and Rural Development Day (ARDD) in Rio de Janiero, Learning Event No. 6, Session 1: “Technology’s potential for addressing sustainable productivity increases’. http://www.agricultureday.orgTRANSCRIPT
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How to Achieve Food Security in a World of Growing Scarcity: Role of Technology Development Strategies
Claudia RinglerIFPRI
ARDD, June 18, 2012
Role of technology in achieving sustainable intensification?
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Agricultural Technologies
Potential to improve: Agricultural production &
consumption Food security Trade Environmental quality Stalled by: Polarized debate on high
intensity vs. low input Lack of understanding of
the impacts of specific technologies at a disaggregated level
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Technology Assessment Scope
Global & Regional Nine Technologies Three Crops
• Wheat• Rice• Maize
• Zero Tillage• Integrated Soil Fertility
Management• Irrigation Technologies• Water Harvesting• Drought Tolerance• Heat tolerance• Nitrogen Use Efficiency• Precision Agriculture• Laser Land Leveling• Organic Agriculture
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Yield gap report + database Technology reports
Yield gaps andfactors causing them
Survey results
How technologies impact yield gaps
DSSAT Crop modeling
Impacts of technologies on yields/yield gaps
IMPACT modeling
Impacts of technology scenarios on food security, trade, etc.
Policy environmentreport
How policies affect technology adoption
Recommendations
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DSSAT – Crop Modeling System
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Management Scenarios
Baseline • Site-specific baseline inorganic fertilizer application rate • For maize, location-specific yield discount factor due to
unmanaged pest damage where Bt maize is not adopted
• Furrow irrigation, where irrigation is adopted• Sub-optimal planting density & sub-optimal planting
window• Conventional tillage• Representative varieties for latitude x altitude zones
Technology scenarios• Specific representation of each technology• Area of adoption in 2050 depends on technology
Climate change scenario in 2050• MIROC A1B (without CO2 fertilization)
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Region
DTHT
DT + HT
ISFMNUENo-till
PAWH
WH+ISFM
Caribbean Central America
Central Africa
Central Asia
East Asia
Eastern Africa
Eastern Europe
Middle East
North America
Northern Africa
Northern Europe
Oceania
South America
South Asia
Southeast Asia
Southern Africa
Southern Europe
Western Africa
Western Europe
-245.1 110.6
Yield Impact (%)
Region
HT
ISFMDripLLL
Sprinkler
NUENo-till
PA
Caribbean Central America
Central Asia
East Asia
Eastern Africa
Eastern Europe
Middle East
North America
Northern Africa
Northern Europe
Oceania
South America
South Asia
Southeast Asia
Southern Africa
Southern Europe
Western Africa
Western Europe
-178.0 160.0
Yield Impact (%)
Crop Model Results: Maize
Rainfed Maize Irrigated Maize
Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012
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Crop Model Results: Rice
Region
DTHT
DT + HT
ISFMNUENo-till
PAWH
WH+ISFM
Caribbean Central America
Central Africa
East Asia
Eastern Africa
Middle East
North America
Northern Africa
Oceania
South America
South Asia
Southeast Asia
Southern Africa
Southern Europe
Western Africa
-33.3 78.7
Yield Impact (%)
Region
HT
ISFMLLL
Sprinkler
NUENo-till
PA
Caribbean Central America
Central Africa
Central Asia
East Asia
Eastern Africa
Middle East
North America
Northern Africa
Oceania
South America
South Asia
Southeast Asia
Southern Europe
Western Africa
-4.1 103.0
Yield Impact (%)
Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012
Irrigated RiceRainfed Rice
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Crop Model Results: Wheat
Region
DTHT
DT + HT
ISFMNUENo-till
PAWH
WH+ISFM
Caribbean Central America
Central Africa
Central Asia
East Asia
Eastern Africa
Eastern Europe
Middle East
North America
Northern Africa
Northern Europe
Oceania
South America
South Asia
Southeast Asia
Southern Africa
Southern Europe
Western Africa
Western Europe
-24.4 170.4
Yield Impact (%)
Region
HT
ISFMLLL
Sprinkler
NUENo-till
PA
Caribbean Central America
Central Africa
Central Asia
East Asia
Eastern Africa
Eastern Europe
Middle East
North America
Northern Africa
Northern Europe
Oceania
South America
South Asia
Southeast Asia
Southern Africa
Southern Europe
Western Africa
Western Europe
-21.8 40.9
Yield Impact (%)
Rainfed Wheat Irrigated Wheat
Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012
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IMPROVED IRRIGATION TECHNOLOGIES Irrigation was triggered
whenever crop needed water (automatic).
Improved irrigation technologies effectively saved water.
Change in irrigation water use by region
Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012
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Linking DSSAT & IMPACT
DSSAT
Technology strategy (combination of
different practices)
Corresponding geographically differentiated yield effects
IMPACT
Food demand and supplyEffects on Global prices and tradeFood security and malnutrition
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Percent Change in World Prices of Maize between 2010 and 2050
Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
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Percent Change in World Prices of Rice between 2000 and 2050
Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
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Percent Change in World Prices of Wheat between 2010 and 2050
Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
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0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%Percent change from 2010 to 2050
Reference (MIROC A1b)
Drought Tolerance
Heat Tolerance
Integrated SFM
No Till
N Use Efficiency
Precision Ag
Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
Percent Change in kilocalorie availability per cap per day between 2010 and 2050
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-5.0%
-4.5%
-4.0%
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%Percent difference from reference in 2050
Drought Tolerance
Heat Tolerance
Integrated SFM
No Till
N Use Efficiency
Precision Ag
Percent Change in the Number of Malnourished Children 2050, compared to reference run
Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
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Conclusions
Agricultural technology investments—including both “advanced” and “traditional” technologies/management practices are a game changer in terms of yield improvements and national and global food security
Alternative technologies increase water productivity, nutrient use efficiency, energy efficiency, and YIELD (but not everywhere). Overall gains for both people and the environment are large
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Conclusions
Suitable technologies will only “work” if farmers have the capacity (and freedom) to adopt; requires conducive institutions, regulatory framework, political will and rural infrastructure
Implementation will also require increased partnerships between the public and private sectors and civil society