lecico 2q 2015 results presentation

23

Upload: hatram

Post on 14-Feb-2017

222 views

Category:

Documents


5 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Lecico 2Q 2015 Results Presentation
Page 2: Lecico 2Q 2015 Results Presentation

Corporate Summary

Page 3: Lecico 2Q 2015 Results Presentation

3

Introduction: An Egyptian exporter

Split of sanitary ware and tiles1Split of domestic and export1

* All production facilities are owned and controlled by Lecico

Alexandria

KhorshidBorg El-Arab

Cairo

Established 1997

Sanitary ware capacity

2.0 million pcs 2005

4.4 million pcs end 2007

Tiles capacity

6.4 million m2 mid – 2011

12.8 million m2 mid – 2013

17.0 million m2 mid – 2016 (est)

Brassware capacity

0.3 million pcs mid – 2010

Borg El-Arab

Established 1975

Sanitary ware capacity

2.5 million pcs 2005

1.8 million pcs (inc FC) end 2008

Tiles capacity

17.0 million m2 2005

21.4 million m2 mid - 2007

Khorshid

Established 1959

Sanitary ware capacity:

350,000 pcs 2007

Tiles capacity

1.1 million m2 2005

Kfarchima

Kfarchima Beirut

Lecico Egypt S.A.E. – one of the world’s largest sanitary ware

producers and a large tiles producer – was founded in 1959 and

has been majority owned by the Gargour family since 1969

The company has a global competitive advantage making

European quality sanitary ware at Egyptian costs

The company is a significant exporter with c45% of Lecico’s

sanitary ware sales volume going into Europe

Lecico finished major expansions in sanitary ware in 2007 which

boosted capacity to 6.7m pieces of sanitary ware and fired clay

In Summer 2010, Lecico began brassware production with a

300,000 piece per annum capacity factory

In Summer 2013, Lecico began production of the second (of

three) lines at its new tile factory in Borg El Arab. The factory is

expected to reach 17m sqm capacity over the coming 3 years

In October 2013, Lecico surrendered its operations in France to

the bankruptcy courts with a write-off of LE 103 million.

Note: (1) 1H 2015 3

Page 4: Lecico 2Q 2015 Results Presentation

Corporate Profile

Page 5: Lecico 2Q 2015 Results Presentation

5

Growing exports

•c 55% of sanitary ware is exported

•SW exports 3.6% CAGR (2005-14)

•10%+ UK, France & Ireland mkt share

Investment case

Experience

•Brand with over 50 years of history

• Multi-national management

• Decades of OEM exports to Europe

Strong historic growth record

16% Revenue CAGR (2000-2014)

13% Net Profit CAGR (2000-2014)

Regional leadership

• Sanitary ware market leader in

Egypt and Lebanon

• Largest producer in the Middle East

Significant cost advantage

• USD 14.40/piece cost (40% of peers)

• c USD 1.50/piece shipping to Europe

• European quality product

Supplier for key European

brands

Export-led growth

Aggressive expansion program

Tile capacity more than tripled and sanitary ware capacity grew 49%

since 2000

5

Page 6: Lecico 2Q 2015 Results Presentation

6

Growing exports

Growth in group’s exports

Export focus on Europe

• Sanitary ware export volumes grew at 3.6% CAGR (2005-2014)

• Europe is beginning to recover from 2008 slowdown from 2013

• Average of over 65% of exports are to Western Europe

• Growth of Middle East exports and slowdown in Europe have

reduced percentage in last few years

Lecico’s total export volumes (sanitary ware) Egypt’s leading sanitary ware exporter

Europe as percentages of total exports Growth of Lecico brand sanitary ware market share in UK

• Lecico exports c58% of its sales vs. 20% for local peers

• Lecico sells to over 50 countries (including OEM sales)

• Approximately 24% of exports (13% of sanitary ware

sales) are for other brands

• Lecico represents over 50% of Egypt’s sanitary ware

exports with the balance split among 9 manufacturers

• UK estimated c16% market share in Lecico-branded sales

• A further c6% market share in OEM and white label sales to

the UK

Page 7: Lecico 2Q 2015 Results Presentation

7

Significant cost advantage

International cost advantage

Lecico produces sanitary ware at an all-in average cost of US$14.40/piece

– In Egypt, manufacturing cost averages US$11.30/piece of sanitary ware

– The difference reflects higher packing costs for EU-destined exports and significantly higher industrial cost in Lebanon

– Our information suggests other low cost producers’ manufacturing cost averages US$15-30/piece

– While European producers average US$35+/piece depending on their market

Why is Lecico able to produce so competitively?

– Egypt: Low energy costs, low labour cost, low investment costs, low effective taxes

– Size: Economies of scale, standard global plant size: 1m pieces

– Experience: Over 50 years manufacturing experience

– Efficiency: Production per employee is over twice that of our local competitors

Investment, distribution and overheads benefit from regional economies of scale

– Sanitary ware investment cost approx US$30-40/piece vs. US$35-55/piece global standard

– Low shipping cost to Europe: US$1.50 per sanitary ware piece vs. approx US$8+ for Asian manufactures

Page 8: Lecico 2Q 2015 Results Presentation

Cost increases 2014

Page 9: Lecico 2Q 2015 Results Presentation

Energy price increases add LE 200 million in costs

Item Increase Impact

Natural Gas 133% from USD 3.0/mbtu to USD 7.0/mbtu 70% of energy costs, energy is 20% of cogs

Electricity 33% from EGP 0.33/KwH to EGP 0.42/KwH 30% of energy costs, energy is 20% of cogs

Diesel petrol 64% from EGP 1.10/ltr to EGP 1.80/ltr All goods and materials will face inflation

Cheapest (80 Octane) petrol 78% from EGP 0.90/ltr to EGP 1.60/ltr General inflation in Egypt

In July 2014, the government announced an massive increase in energy prices which will have a

profound effect on Lecico’s financials:

Lecico estimates that these changes increase cost by at least LE 200 million per year:

– Change raise COGs to about LE 200 million assuming volumes unchanged and no improvement in production/cost structure

– Approximately LE 11 (USD 1.55) extra cost per piece of sanitary ware (c 30% of the LE 200 million plus increase in costs)

– Approximately LE 4 (USD 0.55) extra cost per square meter (c 70% of the LE 200 million increase in costs)

– In 2H 14 and 1H 15, Unit cost increases have matched forecasts despite significant squeeze on volumes as a result of:

– Better energy recuperation and continued efficiency/de-bottlenecking improvements

The additional LE 200 million in costs is more than our annualised profit

– Net profit for the 12 months from 3Q13-2Q14 was LE 120.1 million

9

Page 10: Lecico 2Q 2015 Results Presentation

Lecico enacted significant price increases in 08/14…

On average Lecico needs around a 15% price increase to cover the cost inflation

– By segment we need a 9% increase in sanitary ware and a 20% increase in tiles average group consolidated prices

– This would only absorb costs and would still result in lower margins (%)

– To date, we have only agreed increased prices to Egypt and raised pricing to subsidiaries

– Price increases done to Middle East markets in 2H 2014 have been rolled back with volume discounts due to competition

So far, Lecico has raised average prices by around 8% (assuming volumes hold):

– Tile average prices have increased 12% raising the average price USD 0.35/sqm vs USD 0.55 needed (after reducing price in 1Q 15).

– Sanitary ware average prices have increased 3% raising the average price USD 0.35/pc vs USD 1.55 needed

Increases cover approximately 50% of the LE 200 million or more forecasted cost increase

– However the drop in volumes has meant that annualised gross profits are down approximately LE 160 million if we compare 12 months

through 2H 2015 to previous twelve months.

10

Page 11: Lecico 2Q 2015 Results Presentation

…but oversupply has sharply hit sales volumes

Consumer demand in Egypt squeezed since 2H 14

– Consumer inflation squeezed spending on tiles and sanitary ware from 2H on

– Over stocking of manufacturers and distributors in 3Q and the seasonal slowdown in 4Q

Exports to Libya also limited and fragile

– Although 4Q saw reasonable export volumes to Libya, sales in 3Q and in 1H 2015 show that Libya is likely to operate at a fraction of normal

sales volumes for the foreseeable future

– Combined with slowing sales to Egypt this creates an even greater gap between production and sales capability for Lecico and peers

Egyptian market facing surplus capacity as a result with…

…increased price competition as manufacturers fight for market share

– Price competition and aggressive bargaining to shore up market share have defined market in past months

– All brands sales suffering and Lecico sanware and tile sales in Egypt down around 15% year-on-year consequently

Higher costs and lower sales have taken Lecico from most profitable first half ever to marginal profitability

Some improvement in 2Q 2015 but numbers for 3Q 2015 under pressure from dropping demand again

11

Page 12: Lecico 2Q 2015 Results Presentation

Cost increase and slowdown since 2H14

12

Lecico Group 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015

Sanitary Ware Analysis 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2013 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2014 Q1 Q2 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H

Volume (000's pieces)

Egypt 670 668 511 645 2,494 473 645 533 415 2,066 470 555 1,338 1,156 1,119 948 1,024

Lebanon 36 83 52 21 192 25 39 76 10 150 18 29 119 72 64 86 47

Exports 655 779 794 763 2,990 796 845 711 766 3,118 751 766 1,434 1,556 1,641 1,477 1,517

Total Volume 1,361 1,530 1,357 1,428 5,676 1,294 1,530 1,319 1,191 5,335 1,239 1,350 2,891 2,785 2,824 2,511 2,589

Average Selling Price 123.8 130.9 137.2 127.5 129.8 133.2 137.3 146.8 143.1 140.0 142.1 143.7 127.6 132.2 135.4 145.0 142.9

Revenue 168.5 200.3 186.1 182.0 737.0 172.4 210.1 193.6 170.5 746.6 176.0 194.0 368.8 368.2 382.5 364.2 370.0

Cost of Sales 134.9 157.9 143.9 139.2 575.9 130.0 154.4 165.3 143.0 592.7 134.3 157.5 292.9 283.1 284.5 308.3 291.9

Average Cost Per Piece 99.2 103.2 106.1 97.5 101.5 100.5 100.9 125.3 120.0 111.1 108.5 116.7 101.3 101.6 100.7 122.8 112.7

Gross Profit 33.5 42.4 42.2 42.9 161.0 42.3 55.7 28.4 27.5 153.9 41.7 36.5 75.9 85.1 98.0 55.9 78.2

Gross Profit Margin 20% 21% 23% 24% 22% 25% 27% 15% 16% 21% 24% 19% 21% 23% 26% 15% 21%

Lecico Group 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015

Tile Analysis 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2013 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2014 Q1 Q2 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H

Volume (000's sqm)

Egypt 5,070 5,992 5,898 6,950 23,910 6,525 6,764 7,247 4,921 25,457 4,877 6,164 11,062 12,848 13,288 12,168 11,042

Lebanon 424 695 378 409 1,906 521 398 611 73 1,603 210 359 1,119 787 919 684 569

Exports 1,714 1,955 2,116 1,891 7,676 1,744 1,887 652 1,702 5,985 1,011 1,353 3,669 4,007 3,631 2,354 2,364

Total Volume 7,208 8,642 8,392 9,250 33,492 8,790 9,049 8,510 6,697 33,045 6,098 7,876 15,850 17,642 17,838 15,207 13,975

Average Selling Price 21.1 21.8 21.8 21.5 21.6 22.7 22.6 24.2 25.5 23.6 23.2 24.0 21.5 21.6 22.6 24.8 23.6

Revenue 152.4 188.7 182.7 198.6 722.4 199.4 204.1 206.2 170.7 780.5 141.3 188.7 341.1 381.2 403.6 376.9 330.0

Cost of Sales 96.6 116.8 117.8 129.4 460.7 128.9 130.1 150.7 122.0 531.7 115.1 149.3 213.4 247.3 259.0 272.7 264.4

Average Cost Per sqm 13.4 13.5 14.0 14.0 13.8 14.7 14.4 17.7 18.2 16.1 18.9 19.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 17.9 18.9

Gross Profit 55.7 72.0 64.8 69.1 261.7 70.5 74.1 55.5 48.7 248.8 26.2 39.4 127.7 134.0 144.6 104.2 65.6

Gross Profit Margin 37% 38% 35% 35% 36% 35% 36% 27% 29% 32% 19% 21% 37% 35% 36% 28% 20%

20142013

20142013

2015

2015

Page 13: Lecico 2Q 2015 Results Presentation

Cost increase and slowdown impact since 2H 2014

13

Lecico Group 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015

Profit & Loss (LE Million) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY Q1 Q2 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H

Sanitary Ware 168.5 200.3 186.1 182.0 737.0 172.4 210.1 193.6 170.5 746.6 176.0 194.0 368.8 368.2 382.5 364.2 370.0

Tiles 152.4 188.7 182.7 198.6 722.4 199.4 204.1 206.2 170.7 780.5 141.3 188.7 341.1 381.2 403.6 376.9 330.0

Brassware 11.0 11.0 9.2 10.4 41.6 12.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 46.1 11.9 12.1 22.0 19.6 23.1 23.0 24.0

Net Revenues 331.9 400.0 378.0 391.0 1,500.9 383.8 425.4 411.3 352.8 1,573.2 329.2 394.9 731.9 769.0 809.2 764.1 724.1

Cost of Sales 240.8 282.5 268.0 275.8 1,067.1 267.6 291.8 323.0 271.4 1,153.7 256.2 314.3 523.3 543.8 559.3 594.4 570.5

Gross Profit 91.0 117.5 110.0 115.2 433.8 116.2 133.6 88.3 81.4 419.5 73.0 80.6 208.6 225.2 249.8 169.7 153.6

% of Sales 27% 29% 29% 29% 29% 30% 31% 21% 23% 27% 22% 20% 28% 29% 31% 22% 21%

Selling expenses 17.3 20.6 18.1 20.7 76.7 14.6 18.8 15.8 16.6 65.8 17.8 20.0 37.9 38.8 33.4 32.4 37.9

Administration expenses 31.3 33.2 32.4 36.0 133.0 30.4 33.7 33.0 29.8 126.9 32.4 33.1 64.5 68.5 64.0 62.9 65.5

Overheads 48.7 53.7 50.6 56.7 209.7 45.0 52.5 48.8 46.4 192.7 50.2 53.1 102.4 107.3 97.5 95.3 103.3

% of Sales 15% 13% 13% 15% 14% 12% 12% 12% 13% 12% 15% 13% 14% 14% 12% 12% 14%

Operating Profit (EBIT) 42.4 63.8 59.5 58.5 224.1 71.2 81.2 39.5 35.0 226.8 22.8 27.4 106.2 117.9 152.3 74.5 50.2

% of Sales 13% 16% 16% 15% 15% 19% 19% 10% 10% 14% 7% 7% 15% 15% 19% 10% 7%

Net Financial Expenses (23.0) (27.9) (28.1) (27.0) (106.0) (22.1) (23.2) (22.2) (23.8) (91.3) (19.8) (20.1) (50.9) (55.0) (45.3) (46.0) (39.8)

Dividend Income (0.0) 3.4 (0.2) (103.0) (99.7) (0.0) 2.5 0.0 0.1 2.6 0.0 2.4 3.4 (103.2) 2.5 0.1 2.4

Exchange Variances 8.2 6.2 (4.6) 5.3 15.2 0.5 9.5 (0.3) (0.5) 9.2 7.6 2.9 14.4 0.8 10.0 (0.8) 10.4

Profit before tax 27.6 45.5 26.7 (66.2) 33.6 49.6 69.9 17.0 10.7 147.3 10.6 12.7 73.1 (39.5) 119.5 27.7 23.3

% of Sales 8% 11% 7% -17% 2% 13% 16% 4% 3% 9% 3% 3% 10% -5% 15% 4% 3%

Taxes , profit share & minorities (11.3) (11.9) (9.0) (19.4) (51.6) (14.6) (20.1) (11.7) (9.2) (55.7) (8.4) (8.8) (23.2) (28.4) (34.7) (20.9) (17.2)

Net Profit after tax 16.3 33.6 17.6 (85.5) (18.0) 35.0 49.8 5.3 1.5 91.6 2.2 3.9 49.9 (67.9) 84.8 6.8 6.1

% of Sales 5% 8% 5% -22% -1% 9% 12% 1% 0% 6% 1% 1% 7% -9% 10% 1% 1%

2013 20152014

Page 14: Lecico 2Q 2015 Results Presentation

Strategy for 2015: Gain volumes and cut costs

Lecico enacting aggressive pricing solutions to gain volumes in Egypt and export

– Lecico decreased tile prices by c 6.5% from February 1st

– Lecico introducing new lowest cost/lowest price tile and sanitary ware solutions

– Lecico pushing for expanded retail footprint in Egypt, increasing independent and direct sales showrooms dramatically

– Lecico looking for new export opportunities in tile and sanware with aggressive pricing to replace lost sales in Egypt and Libya

Lecico taking defensive measures to shore up P&L and cash flows

– Lecico has mothballed 30% of tile capacity and 12% of sanitary ware capacity from the start of the year reducing fixed costs

– Lecico has unwound part of its long FX position reducing interest expense by an estimated LE 21 million per year

Strategy has delivered some improvement in 2Q 2015 but further reductions actions being considered

– Some tile capacity was brought back on stream and part of the price reduction in tiles was reduced – both may have to be revisited given 3Q

slowdown

– Sanitary ware price increase enacted in July 2015 (about 3% net) on back of stronger volumes in 2Q

Some improvement in 2Q 2015 but numbers for 3Q 2015 under pressure from dropping demand again

14

Page 15: Lecico 2Q 2015 Results Presentation

Financial overview

Page 16: Lecico 2Q 2015 Results Presentation

16

Profit and loss

Net sales Cost of sales breakdown (1H 2015)

EBIT Net Profit *

* = 2013 net profit excludes write-off for France

Page 17: Lecico 2Q 2015 Results Presentation

17

Quarterly P&L Trends

Net sales Gross profit*

EBIT* Net Profit*

* = 4Q 2013 net profit excludes write-off for France

Page 18: Lecico 2Q 2015 Results Presentation

18

Segmental analysis

Sanitary ware – sales volumes and revenue Sanitary ware – gross profit and marginSanitary ware – selling price and cost per piece

Tiles – sales volumes and revenues Tiles – selling price and cost per sqm Tiles – gross profit and margin

Page 19: Lecico 2Q 2015 Results Presentation

19

Quarterly Segmental trends

Sanitary ware average price, cost and profit per piece Sanitary ware sales volume

Tile Average Price, Cost and Profit per sqm Tile sales volume

Page 20: Lecico 2Q 2015 Results Presentation

20

Balance sheet and cash flow

Working capital

Returns and leverage Capital expenditures 2015e

Maintenance Capex and tile diversification investment LE 65.0m

Page 21: Lecico 2Q 2015 Results Presentation

Share performance and data

Page 22: Lecico 2Q 2015 Results Presentation

22

Shareholding structure and performance

Lecico valued at a market cap of US$ 61 million with a 51% free float

– All activity is in the local share

– Local share trades circa US$ 18,000 per day and on 75% of trading days (12 months to end July 2015)

– Trading frequency has gone to 75% of market days from c 40% of market days in 2005-2007

– The cancellation of the GDR has seen the local float grow to 50% from c 41% two years ago

Share liquidity overview (Local)

Liquidity has moved to local share and improved Lecico share price

Lecico trades at a PER multiple of 737x previous 12 months results

– EV/EBITDA of 5.2x

– Price to book value of 0.5x

– Dividend Yield of 4.2% based on 2014 dividend

Shareholding structure

Page 23: Lecico 2Q 2015 Results Presentation

23

Thank you

For additional information, please contact:

Taher G. Gargour

Telephone: +203 518 0011

Fax: +203 518 0029

E-mail: [email protected]

Visit our website at: www.lecico.com

Forward-looking statements:

This presentation may contain certain “forward-looking statements”, relating to Lecico Egypt S.A.E. business, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “will”, “planned”, “expectations”, “forecast” or similar expressions, or by discussions of strategy, plans or intentions. Such statements may include descriptions of investments planned or currently under development by Lecico Egypt S.A.E. and the anticipated impact of these investments. Such statements reflect the current views of Lecico Egypt S.A.E. with respect to future events and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Many factors could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Lecico Egypt S.A.E. to be materially different from any future results that may be expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.