lecture 2 intermediate macroeconomics, autumn 2012perseus.iies.su.se/~calmf/ekonomisk...
TRANSCRIPT
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Lecture 2: Intermediate macroeconomics, autumn 2012
Lars Calmfors Literature: Mankiw, Chapters 3, 7 and 8.
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Topics
Production
Labour productivity and economic growth The Solow Model Endogenous growth
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( , )
( , 1) ( , )
( , )
( 1, ) ( , )
( , )
L
K
Y F K L
MPL F K L F K L
dF K LdYMPL FdL dL
MPK F K L F K L
dF K LdYMPK FdK dK
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Figure 3-3: The production function
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Figure 3-4: The marginal product of labour schedule
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Profit maximisation General: suppose y = f (x, z). The first-order conditions (FOCs) for maximum of y are:
0
0
Profit maximisation
,
0 ⇔
0 ⇔
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Production function
( , ) total factor productivity
It holds that:
(1 )
= capital income share 1- = labour income share
GDP growth = total factor p
Y AF K L A
Y A K LY A K L
roductivity growth+ contribution from growth of the capital stock+ contribution from growth of the labour force
Growth accounting
The Solow-residual: A (1 )Y K L
A Y K L
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Figure 3-5: The ratio of labour income to total income
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Mathematical preliminaries: the natural logarithm Recall that is the natural logarithm of . By definition:
=
Properties:
( )
a
n x x
x e a n x
n xy n x n y
xn n x n yy
n x n x
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If ( ) and ( ) so that ( ( ))then
g x
y f g g g x
y f g x
dy f dggdx dx
f g
Rules of differentiation
(1)
Moreover, the derivative of the -function is given by:
(2)
and for polynom
( ) 1
n
d n xxdx
1
ials:
( ) ddxx x
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Profit maximisation with Cobb-Douglas production function
1 0
1
1
1
1
1 thelabourshare
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Constant returns to scale Y = F(K, L) zY = zF(K, L) = F(zK, zL)
10 % larger input of capital and labour raises output also by 10 %.
,
1
( 1)
zL
Y KFL L
Y yL
output per capita
=K kL
capital intensity (capital stock per capita)
( , 1) ( )y F k f k
Output per capita is a function of capital intensity
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The Cobb-Douglas case
1
1
1
1
:
:
Suppose that
Including total factor productivity (A) so that
Y K L
Y K L Ky K L kL L L
Y AK L
Y AK L Ky AK L A AkL L L
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The Solow model (1) y = c + i Goods market equilibrium (2) c = (1-s) y Consumption function, s is the savings rate (3) y = f(k) Production function (4) d = δk Capital depreciation, δ is the rate of depreciation (5) ∆k = i – δk Change in the capital stock Change in the capital stock = Gross investment – Depreciation
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The Solow model (cont.) Substituting the consumption function (2) into the goods market equilibrium condition (1) gives:
y = (1-s)y + i i = sy Investment = Saving Substitution of the production function into the investment-savings equality gives: i = sf(k)
∆k = i – δk = sf(k) – δk In a steady state, the capital stock is unchanged from period to period, i.e. ∆k = 0 and thus: sf(k) = δk
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Figure 7.1 The production function
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Figure 7-2: Output, consumption and investment
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Figure 7-3: Depreciation
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Figure 7-4: Investment, depreciation and the steady state
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Convergence of GDP per capita
Countries with different initial GDP per capita will converge
(if they have the same production function, the same savings
rate and the same depreciation rate).
The catch-up factor
Strong empirical support for the hypothesis that GDP growth
is higher the lower is initial GDP per capita
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Figure 7-5: An increase in the saving rate
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Figure 7-6: International evidence on investment rates and income per person
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Golden rule of capital accumulation
Which savings rate gives the highest per capita consumption
in the steady state?
y = c + i
c = y – i
In a steady state, gross investment equals depreciation:
i = k
Hence:
c = f(k) - k
Consumption is maximised when the marginal product of
capital equals the rate of depreciation, i.e. MPC =
Mathematical derivation
The first-order condition for maximisation of the consump-
tion function:
/ 0kc k f
fk =
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Figure 7-7: Steady-state consumption
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Figure 7-8: The saving rate and the golden rule
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Figure 7-9: Reducing saving when starting with more capital than in the golden rule steady state
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Figure 7-10: Increasing saving when starting with less capital than in the golden rule steady state
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A steady state with population growth
population growth
LnL
k i k nk
Change in capital intensity (k = K/L) = Gross investment – Depreciation – Reduction in capital intensity due to population growth In a steady state:
0, i.e. ( + ) 0k i k nk i n k
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Figure 7-11: Population growth in the Solow model
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Figure 7-12: The impact of population growth
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Figure 7-13: International evidence on population growth and income per person
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A steady state with population growth
( , )
(1 )
Y F K L
Y K LY K L
In a steady state, k = K/L is constant. Because
0,k K LK Lk
We have
är (1 ) (1 )
K L nK L
Y K L n n nY K L
GDP growth = Population growth
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Golden rule with population growth
c = y – i = f(k) – ( + n)k
Consumption per capita is maximised if MPC = + n, i.e. if
the marginal product of capital equals the sume of the
depreciation rate and population growth
Alternative formulation: The net marginal product of
capital after depreciation (MPK – ) should equal population
growth (n)
Mathematical derivation
Differentiation of c-function w.r.t k gives:
/ ( ) 0kc k f n
fk = + n
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Alternative perspectives on population growth 1. Malthus (1766-1834)
- population will grow up to the point that there is just subsistence
- man will always remain in poverty - futile to fight poverty
2. Kremer
- population growth is a key driver of technological growth
- faster growth in a more populated world - the most successful parts of the world around 1500
was the old world (followed by Aztec and Mayan civilisations in the Americas; hunter-gatherers of Australia)
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Labour-augmenting technical progress
Steady state L grows by n % per year E grows by g % per year k = sf(k) – (δ + n + g)k = 0 Gross investment = Depreciation + Reduction in capital intensity because of population growth + Reduction in capital intensity because of technological progress
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Figure 8-1: Technological progress and the Solow growth model
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Growth and labour-augmenting technological progress
1
( )
(1 )( )
Y K LE
Y K L EY K L E
In a steady state K/LE is constant ( / / ) / .
( ) (1 )( )
L L E E n g K K n g
Y n g n g n gY
GDP growth = population growth+ technological progress
y Y L n g n gy Y L
Growth in GDP per capita = rate of technological progress
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n + g Y = y E L Total output
g (Y/ L ) = y E Output per worker
0 y = Y/ (L E ) Output per effective worker
0 k = K/ (L E ) Capital per effective worker
Steady-state growth rate Symbol Variable
Table 8-1: Steady-State growth rates in the Solow model with technological progress
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Golden rule with technological progress
c = f(k) - ( + n + g)k
Consumption per efficiency unit is maximised if MPK =
+ n + g
The marginal product of capital should equal the sum of
depreciation, population growth and technological progress
Alternative formulation: The net marginal product (MPK - )
should equal GDP growth (n + g).
Mathematical derivation
Differentiation w.r.t. k:
/ ( ) 0kc k f n g
fk = + n +g
Real world capital stocks are smaller than according to the
golden rule. The current generation attaches a larger weight
to its own welfare than according to the golden rule.
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Endogenous or exogenous growth
In the Solow model growth is exogenously determined by
population growth and technological progress
Recent research has focused on the role of human capital
A higher savings rate or investment in human capital do
not change the rate of growth in the steady state
The explanation is decreasing marginal return of capital
(MPK is decreasing in K )
The AK-model
Y = AK
ΔK = sY - δK
Assume A to be fixed!
ΔY/Y = ΔK/K
ΔK/K = sAK/K – δK/K = sA - δ
ΔY/Y = sA - δ
A higher savings rate s implies permanently higher
growth
Explanation: constant returns to scale for capital
Complementarity between human and real capital
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A two-sector growth model
Business sector
Education sector
Y = FK, (1-u)EL Production function in business sector
E = g(u)E Production function in education sector
K = sY - K Capital accumulation
u = share of population in education
E/E = g(u)
A higher share of population, u, in education raises the
growth rate permanently (cf AK-model – here human
capital)
A higher savings rate, s, raises growth only temporarily
as in the Solow model
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Human capital in growth models 1. Broad-based accumulation of knowledge in the system of
education
2. Generation of ideas and innovations in research-intensive
R&D sector
3. Learning by doing at the work place
Policy conclusions
1. Basic education – incentives for efficiency in the education
system – incentives to choose and complete education
2. Put resources in top-quality R&D
3. Life-long learning in working life
Technological externalities / knowledge spillovers
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Role of institutions
Quality of institutions determine the allocation of scarce
resources
Legal systems – secure property rights
- “helping hand” from government (Europe)
- “grabbing hand” from government
Acemoglu / Johnson /Robinson
- European settlers in colonies preferred moderate climates
(US, Canada, NZ)
- European-style institutions
- Earlier institutions strongly correlated with today’s institutions
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Temporary effects of a recession
Permanent effects of a recession
trend
Output
Output
Time
Time
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Will the recession have long-run growth effects? Traditional view: a recession only represents a temporary
reduction in resource utilisation
Modern view a recession can have “permanent” effects on
potential output growth
Effects on potential growth
Slower growth of capital input
- lower investment because of lower output and credit crunch
in the short run and because of higher risk premia (higher
interest rates and thus higher capital costs) in the medium
run
- capital becomes obstacle
Higher structural unemployment
Slower growth in total factor productivity
- lower R&D expenditure
- but also closing down of least efficient firms