lecture 8 : factor models (asset pricing and portfolio theory)
TRANSCRIPT
LECTURE 8 :LECTURE 8 :
FACTOR MODELSFACTOR MODELS
(Asset Pricing and Portfolio (Asset Pricing and Portfolio Theory)Theory)
ContentsContents
The CAPMThe CAPM Single index modelSingle index model Arbitrage portfolioSArbitrage portfolioS Which factors explain asset prices Which factors explain asset prices
?? Empirical resultsEmpirical results
IntroductionIntroduction
CAPM : Equilibrium model CAPM : Equilibrium model – One factor, where the factor is the One factor, where the factor is the
excess return on the market. excess return on the market. – Based on mean-variance analysisBased on mean-variance analysis
Stephen Ross (1976) developed Stephen Ross (1976) developed alternative model alternative model Arbitrage Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT)Pricing Theory (APT)
Single Index ModelSingle Index Model
Single Index Model Single Index Model
Alternative approach to portfolio theory. Alternative approach to portfolio theory.
Market return is the single index. Market return is the single index. Return on a stock can be written as : Return on a stock can be written as :
RRii = a = aii + + iiRRmm
aaii = = ii + e + eii
Hence RHence Rii = = ii + + iiRRmm + e + eii Equation (1)Equation (1)
Assume : Assume : Cov(eCov(eii, R, Rmm) = 0) = 0
E(eE(eiieejj) = 0 for all i and j (i ≠ j)) = 0 for all i and j (i ≠ j)
Single Index Model Single Index Model (Cont.)(Cont.)Obtain OLS estimates of Obtain OLS estimates of ii, , ii and and eiei (using (using
OLS)OLS)
Mean return : Mean return : ERERii = = ii + + iiERERmm
Variance of security return : Variance of security return : 22
ii = = 22ii22
mm + + 22eiei
Covariance of returns between securities : Covariance of returns between securities : ijij = = iijj22
mm
Portfolio Theory and Portfolio Theory and the Market Modelthe Market Model Suppose we have a 5 Stock PortfolioSuppose we have a 5 Stock Portfolio Estimates required Estimates required
– Traditional MV-approach Traditional MV-approach 5 Expected returns5 Expected returns 5 Variances of returns5 Variances of returns 10 Covariances10 Covariances
– Using the Single Index Model Using the Single Index Model 5 OLS regressions 5 OLS regressions
– 5 alphas and 5 betas5 alphas and 5 betas– 5 Variances of error term5 Variances of error term
1 Expected return of the market portfolio1 Expected return of the market portfolio 1 Variance of market return1 Variance of market return
Factor ModelsFactor Models
Single Factor Model Single Factor Model
ER
Factor
a
Slope = b
Factor Model : Factor Model : ExampleExample RRii = a = aii + b + biiFF11 + e + eii Example : Example :
Factor-1 is predicted rate of growth in Factor-1 is predicted rate of growth in industrial productionindustrial production
ii mean Rmean Rii bbii
Stock 1Stock 1 15%15% 0.90.9
Stock 2Stock 2 21%21% 3.03.0
Stock 3Stock 3 12%12% 1.81.8
The APT : Some The APT : Some ThoughtsThoughts The Arbitrage Pricing Theory The Arbitrage Pricing Theory
– New and different approach to determine New and different approach to determine asset prices.asset prices.
– Based on the law of one price : two items Based on the law of one price : two items that are the same cannot sell at different that are the same cannot sell at different prices. prices.
– Requires fewer assumptions than CAPMRequires fewer assumptions than CAPM– Assumption : each investor, when given the Assumption : each investor, when given the
opportunity to increase the return of his opportunity to increase the return of his portfolio without increasing risk, will do so. portfolio without increasing risk, will do so.
Mechanism for doing so : arbitrage portfolioMechanism for doing so : arbitrage portfolio
An Arbitrage PortfolioAn Arbitrage Portfolio
Arbitrage PortfolioArbitrage Portfolio
Arbitrage portfolio requires no ‘own funds’ Arbitrage portfolio requires no ‘own funds’ – Assume there are 3 stocks : 1, 2 and 3Assume there are 3 stocks : 1, 2 and 3
– XXii denotes the denotes the changechange in the investors holding in the investors holding (proportion) of security i, then X(proportion) of security i, then X11 + X + X22 + X + X33 = 0 = 0
– No sensitivity to any factor, so that bNo sensitivity to any factor, so that b11XX11 + b + b22XX22 + b+ b33XX33 = 0 = 0
– Example : 0.9 XExample : 0.9 X11 + 3.0 X + 3.0 X22 + 1.8 X + 1.8 X33 = 0 = 0
– (assumes zero non factor risk) (assumes zero non factor risk)
Arbitrage Portfolio Arbitrage Portfolio (Cont.) (Cont.) Let XLet X11 be 0.1. be 0.1. Then Then
0.1 + X0.1 + X22 + X + X33 = 0 = 0
0.09 + 3.0 X0.09 + 3.0 X22 + 1.8 X + 1.8 X33 = 0 = 0
– 2 equations, 2 unknowns. 2 equations, 2 unknowns. – Solving this system gives Solving this system gives
XX22 = 0.075 = 0.075
XX33 = -0.175 = -0.175
Arbitrage Portfolio Arbitrage Portfolio (Cont.)(Cont.) Expected return Expected return
XX11 ER ER11 + X + X22 ER ER22 + X + X33 ER ER33 > 0 > 0
Here 15 XHere 15 X11 + 21 X + 21 X22 + 12 X + 12 X33 > 0 (= 0.975%) > 0 (= 0.975%)
Arbitrage portfolio is attractive to Arbitrage portfolio is attractive to investors who investors who – Wants higher expected returnsWants higher expected returns– Is not concerned with risk due to factors Is not concerned with risk due to factors
other than Fother than F11
Portfolio Stats / Portfolio Stats / Portfolio Weights Portfolio Weights (Example)(Example)
WeightsWeights Old Portf.Old Portf. Arbitr. Arbitr. Portf.Portf.
New Portf.New Portf.
XX11 1/31/3 0.10.1 0.4330.433
XX22 1/31/3 0.0750.075 0.4080.408
XX33 1/31/3 -0.175-0.175 0.1580.158
PropertiesProperties
ERERpp 16%16% 0.975%0.975% 16.975%16.975%
bbpp 1.91.9 0.000.00 1.91.9
pp 11%11% smallsmall approx approx 11%11%
Pricing EffectsPricing Effects
Stock 1 and 2 Stock 1 and 2 – Buying stock 1 and 2 will push prices upBuying stock 1 and 2 will push prices up– Hence expected returns fallsHence expected returns falls
Stock 3Stock 3– Selling stock 3 will push price downSelling stock 3 will push price down– Hence expected return will increaseHence expected return will increase
Buying/selling stops if all arbitrage possibilities Buying/selling stops if all arbitrage possibilities are eliminated. are eliminated.
Linear relationship between expected return and Linear relationship between expected return and sensitivities sensitivities
ERERii = = 00 + + 11bbii
where bwhere bii is the security’s sensitivity to the is the security’s sensitivity to the factor. factor.
Interpreting the APTInterpreting the APT
ERERii = = 00 + + 11bbii
00 = r = rff
11 = pure factor portfolio, p* that has unit = pure factor portfolio, p* that has unit sensitivity to the factorsensitivity to the factor
For bFor bii = 1 = 1
ERERp*p* = r = rff + + 11
or or 11 = ER = ERp*p* - r - rff (= factor risk premium) (= factor risk premium)
Two Factor Model : Two Factor Model : ExampleExample RRii = a = aii + b + bi1i1FF11 + b + bi2i2FF22 + e + eii
ii ERERii bbi1i1 bbi2i2
Stock 1Stock 1 15%15% 0.90.9 2.02.0
Stock 2Stock 2 21%21% 3.03.0 1.51.5
Stock 3Stock 3 12%12% 1.81.8 0.70.7
Stock 4Stock 4 8%8% 2.02.0 3.23.2
Multi Factor Models Multi Factor Models
RRii = a = aii + b + bi1i1 F F11 + b + bi2i2 F F22 + … + b + … + bikik F Fkk + + eeii
ERERii = = 00 + + 11 b bi1i1 + + 22 b bi2i2 + … + + … + kkbbikik
Identifying the FactorsIdentifying the Factors
Unanswered questions : Unanswered questions : – How many factors ? How many factors ? – Identity of factors (i.e. values for lamba)Identity of factors (i.e. values for lamba)
Possible factors (literature suggests : 3 – Possible factors (literature suggests : 3 – 5)5)Chen, Roll and Ross (1986)Chen, Roll and Ross (1986)
Growth rate in industrial production Growth rate in industrial production Rate of inflation (both expected and unexpected)Rate of inflation (both expected and unexpected) Spread between long-term and short-term interest Spread between long-term and short-term interest
ratesrates Spread between low-grade and high-grade bondsSpread between low-grade and high-grade bonds
Testing the APTTesting the APT
Testing the TheoryTesting the Theory
Proof of any economic theory is how well it Proof of any economic theory is how well it describes reality. describes reality.
Testing the APT is not straight forward Testing the APT is not straight forward – theory specifies a structure for asset pricingtheory specifies a structure for asset pricing– theory does not say anything about the economic or theory does not say anything about the economic or
firm characteristics that should affect returns. firm characteristics that should affect returns.
Multifactor return-generating process Multifactor return-generating process RRii = a = aii + + b bijijFFjj + e + eii
APT model can be written as APT model can be written as ERERii = r = rff + + bbijijjj
Testing the Theory Testing the Theory (Cont.)(Cont.)bbijij : are unique to each security and represent : are unique to each security and represent
an attribute of the securityan attribute of the security
FFjj : any I affects more than 1 security (if not : any I affects more than 1 security (if not all). all).
jj : the extra return required because of a : the extra return required because of a security’s sensitivity to the jsecurity’s sensitivity to the jthth attribute of attribute of the security the security
Testing the Theory Testing the Theory (Cont.)(Cont.) Obtaining the bObtaining the bijij’s’s
– First method is to specify a set of First method is to specify a set of attributes (firm characteristics) : battributes (firm characteristics) : bijij are directly specifiedare directly specified
– Second method is to estimate the Second method is to estimate the bbijij’s and then the ’s and then the jj using the using the equation shown earlier. equation shown earlier.
Principal Component Principal Component Analysis (PCA)Analysis (PCA) Technique to reduce the number of variables Technique to reduce the number of variables
being studied without losing too much being studied without losing too much information in the covariance matrix. information in the covariance matrix.
Objective : to reduce the dimension from N Objective : to reduce the dimension from N assets to k factorsassets to k factors
Principal components (PC) serve as factors Principal components (PC) serve as factors – First PC : (normalised) linear combination of asset First PC : (normalised) linear combination of asset
returns with maximum variance returns with maximum variance – Second PC : (normalised) linear combination of asset Second PC : (normalised) linear combination of asset
returns with maximum variance of all combinations returns with maximum variance of all combinations orthogonal to the first componentorthogonal to the first component
Pro and Cons of Pro and Cons of Principal Component Principal Component AnalysisAnalysis Advantage : Advantage :
– Allows for time-varying factor risk Allows for time-varying factor risk premium premium
– Easy to computeEasy to compute
Disadvantage : Disadvantage : – interpretation of the principal interpretation of the principal
components, statistical approachcomponents, statistical approach
SummarySummary
APT alternative approach to explain APT alternative approach to explain asset pricing asset pricing – Factor model requiring fewer Factor model requiring fewer
assumptions than CAPMassumptions than CAPM– Based on concept of arbitrage portfolioBased on concept of arbitrage portfolio
Interpretation : lamba’s are difficult Interpretation : lamba’s are difficult to interpret, no economics about to interpret, no economics about the factors and factor weightings. the factors and factor weightings.
References References
Cuthbertson, K. and Nitzsche, D. Cuthbertson, K. and Nitzsche, D. (2004) ‘Quantitative Financial (2004) ‘Quantitative Financial Economics’, Chapters 7 Economics’, Chapters 7
Cuthbertson, K. and Nitzsche, D. Cuthbertson, K. and Nitzsche, D. (2001) ‘Investments : Spot and (2001) ‘Investments : Spot and Derivatives Markets’, Chapter 10.5 Derivatives Markets’, Chapter 10.5 (The Arbitrage Pricing Theory)(The Arbitrage Pricing Theory)
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