lecture(12) 2013-2014. risk & uncertainty definition “risk” and “uncertainty” are two...
TRANSCRIPT
Infrastructure planning and management
Lecture(12)
Civil Engineering Dept.Master Program
2013-2014
Risk & Uncertainty Definition
“Risk” and “uncertainty” are two terms basic to any decision making framework. Risk can be defined as imperfect knowledge where the probabilities of the possible outcomes are known, and uncertainty exists when these probabilities are not known (Hardaker).
Project risk management definition
The PRM process is defined as “the process of taking management action in order to respond appropriately to all identified risks to maximise the likelihood of the project meeting its objectives within its constraints, by monitoring risk exposure and adjusting project strategy to keep risk within acceptable levels”
Project risk management process
• Risk identification• Risk Analysis - Qualitative risk
analysis - Quantitative risk
analysis• Risk mitigation• Risk Monitoring and
follow up
Selection of parameters for Risk analysis
Accounting for Unforeseen Changes and Events
1•Technologies changes affecting water
supply and demand
2 •New finding that affect federal and state environment regulation
3 •Major industry location and relocation
4 •Hurricanes, earthquake, or landslides
5 •Climate change affecting water flows and water levels
6 •War and insurgent action such as happened in Gaza before one year
Uncertainties in Water Resources Management
Environmental Risk Assessment and Management
Environmental Risk Assessment and Management
Management of Water Quantity and Quality
Modeling and decision making processes in water resources
management
Modeling and decision making processes in water resources
management
Stochastic variation of thewater level in a reservoir.
Effective Decision-Making process
1 •It focuses on what is important
2 •It is logical and consistent
3•It acknowledge both subjective and
objective factors and blends analytical with intuitive thinking
4•It requires only as much information
and analysis as is necessary to resole a particular dilemma
5•It encourages and guides the
gathering of relevant information and informed opinion
6 •It is straightforward, reliable, easy to use, and flexible
WORKSHOP
Risk analysis for wastewater pumping station (Group(A))
Risk analysis for landfill design (Group(B))