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Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference Legal & General Group Plc 7 th June 2016 Mark Gregory Group Chief Financial Officer

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Page 1: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference

Legal & General Group Plc

7th June 2016 Mark Gregory Group Chief Financial Officer

Page 2: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

Forward looking statements

Page 3: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

Ageing populations: UK and worldwide demographics trends undeniable

PROJECTED UK POPULATION GROWTH BY AGE FROM 2001

Source: ONS 28 March 2014

Working age population

• In the 20th century the planet’s population doubled - twice. In this century it will not double even

once as birth rates decline steeply in much of the world

• The number of over 65s is set to double in the next 25 years

• Globally the ratio of old-age dependents versus working age population is rising rapidly: 16

people aged 65+ to every 100 working adults in 2010 rising to 26 by 2035

Source: The Economist: ‘Age invaders’ http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21601248-generation-old-people-about-change-global-economy-they-will-not-all-do-so

Page 4: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

Ageing Population: Four Opportunities, Matching Skillsets

PENSION

SAVING

ASSET

CREATION

LIFETIME

MORTGAGES

PENSION RISK

TRANSFER

Page 5: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

Longevity Expertise and Customer Access

•••

•••

Page 6: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

Financial resilience for most families remains low

Source:” The Money Statistics” November 2015

£2.551 trillion Anticipated household debt in Q1 2021, with an average

of £95,532 per household.

9.61m (36%) Of households have no

savings, whilst a further 3.47m

(13%) have under £1,500.

209 People a day are declared

insolvent or bankrupt –

equivalent to one person every

7 minutes.

6,323 New debt problems dealt with

every working day by the

Citizens Advice Bureau.

£163 million Increase in net lending to

individuals per day.

4.7% The average proportion of their

post-tax income, UK

households save.

Owner-occupied properties taken into possession in the year to June

2015.

15,400

Page 7: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

Legal & General

UK DC savings industry projections

Workplace Customers

DC AUM

Auto-enrolment a huge success

Page 8: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

Typical cost of retirement

Sources: 1. Joseph Rowntree Foundation – minimal acceptable standard of living equating to £261.52 per week

2: Office of National Statistics, life expectancy for a 65 year old male

3. Laing & Buisson Care of Older People, UK Market Report 2014/15 – annual cost of care (excluding nursing) of £29,250, 4 year life expectancy in care for self-funded individuals

£13,599 Basic cost of living in

retirement per annum1

65 Current state retirement

age (male)

83.8 Current UK life

expectancy2

Post retirement life

expectancy

18.8 years

£250,000 Basic cost of retirement

£117,000 Cost of care3

£367,000 Typical cost of

retirement

Page 9: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

2016 personal balance sheet at retirement

ASSETS

(£’000)

190

200

50

30

15

20

c.505

Page 10: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

Lifetime mortgages – an increasingly important source of retirement

income

Forecast new equity release advances

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Page 11: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

UK Pension reform key to reducing welfare spend

0

50

100

150

200

250

Other

Child benefit

Housing benefits

Tax credits

Disability / incapacity benefits

Pensions (including credits)

18%

• Introducing a flat rate of pension contribution tax relief at 25% saves UK

government £8bn p.a.

• Polling shows 18-24 year-olds are increasingly likely to see welfare as a personal,

not a State, responsibility.

• Private provision of pensions the key opportunity with emerging opportunities in

private provision of unemployment, sickness and critical illness protection.

• Pension costs to rise 18%

in next 7 years to £110bn

by 2021

• 48% of all welfare spend

compared to 44% today

7%

Source: Office of Budgetary Responsibility November 2015

Page 12: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

Further opportunities to ‘privatise’ UK welfare

THE SYSTEMS ARE

ALREADY IN PLACE.

Use auto-enrolment

infrastructure

Phase out of contributory

benefits

Incentivise employers

Build on universal credit

BEVERIDGE 2.0

Auto Enrolment

Sickness

Job loss

Retirement

Extra AE

Contribution

• Enhances Auto-

enrolment benefits

• Ability to access

savings in the event

of sickness and/or

unemployment

• Some of the savings

can be used to fund

a guaranteed level of

benefit

Extra Savings

SAVING

Sickness Job loss

• The product can

be designed to

provide sickness

and/or

unemployment

benefits

• Pays benefits in

the event of

specified

circumstances

PROTECTION

Page 13: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

Defined benefit pension schemes now a legacy issue hindering

corporate growth

Distribution of buy-out funding levels by size of scheme

membership1

£1.3trn

UK Government net public service pension liability2

Page 14: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

Managing risk with Liability Driven Investments (LDI)

Notional amount of liabilities hedged for

UK pension schemes

Source: KPMG: Navigating the UK LDI market report 2015

Notional amount of liabilities hedged by

manager

67% Of the UKs largest pension schemes have

implemented LDI strategies with a further 10%

expected to implement in the next 3 years Source: Legal & general: ‘De-risking journeys of large pension schemes’

Page 15: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

LGR: Nine sources of profit

BACK BOOK FOR CASH

•1

2

3

4

5

6

7

UK CAPITAL-LITE FRONT

BOOK

US PENSION RISK

TRANSFER

LONGEVITY

INSURANCE

SECONDARY ANNUITY

MARKET

LIFETIME MORTGAGES

INDIVIDUAL ANNUITIES

8

GLOBAL REINSURANCE

HUB

9

BACK BOOK

ACQUISITIONS

S1-like

release

S1-like

release

S2 capital-

lite

US RBC

S2 capital-

lite

S2

facilitating

risk transfer

S2

S2

S2

Capital

characteristics

Page 16: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

Pension Risk Transfer (PRT)

Estimated size of major defined benefit markets

£tr

illio

n o

f private

DB

lia

bili

ties

1.7 1.8

0.6

UK PRT volumes (£billion)

Source: Towers Watson Settlement Watch

Page 17: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

UK pension risk transfer opportunity •

Private sector defined benefit liabilities

Annuity transactions

£1.8trn

Page 18: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

US pension risk transfer opportunity

Annuity transactions

Private sector defined benefit liabilities

$2.6trn

Page 19: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

Longevity reinsurance: our capital-lite strategy

ANSWERING CLIENT NEEDS

UK

USA

Netherlands

BUILDING OUR BUSINESS

DEEP GLOBAL POOL OF CAPITAL

DEPLOYING OUR SKILL SET

Brand Strength + Execution

LONGEVITY EXPOSURE AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2015

Capital Management / Reinsurance

Page 20: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

Back book to deliver material profits for many yearsProjected future cashflow

before backbook actions*

Undiscounted

2015

Discounted

2015

LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn

£m 2014 2015 2016

- Direct investments

- Lifetime mortgages

- Default outperformance

Fu

rth

er

up

sid

e

Estimated annual projected unwind of LGR VIF**

Page 21: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

UK housing policy creating generational unfairness

Adults aged 20-34 living with their parents

Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics, KPMG/Shelter report “Building the homes we need”

Mil

lio

n p

eo

ple

UK housing deficit

£5 billion Lent by the Bank of ‘Mum and

Dad’, providing deposits for

over 300,000 mortgages,

purchasing homes worth

£77bn in 2016.

Source: Legal & General: ‘Bank and Mum and Dad ‘report

Page 22: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

LGC creating new assets for long term investors

Housing Build-to-sell; Build-to-Rent, Modular

Housing, Retirement, Affordable, Student

Urban Regeneration Early stage development of

Commercial, Residential, Retail, Mixed-use and Infrastructure

Clean Energy

On-Shore Wind; Solar; Battery Storage

Alternative Finance Senior and Mezzanine SME lending;

Trade Finance; Property Finance

Sector LGC Profit

Activities

Insurance

Annuity Funds (LGR) With-Profits

European Insurance Funds

Pension Funds

Large self-managed funds (JVs)

3rd Party funds

Investors

Page 23: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

Legal & General Capital: Direct Investing Growth Opportunity

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 2015 2014 Operating profit

2015 (£m)

187 162

233 203

4.2 3.9

867 700 69

3,213 3,704 154

1,585 718 10

5,665 5,122 233

DIRECT INVESTMENTS Investment

(£m)

Operating

profit

(£m)

ROCE

(%)

345 27 10.5

346 31 8.1

15 - -

161 11 7.3

867 69 8.8

TRADED PORTFOLIO Investment

(£m)

Operating

profit

(£m)

ROCE

(%)

1,389 101 7.4

143 19 4.3

133 13 5.3

1,548 22 1.5

3,213 154 4.4

1,585 10 0.9

1. ROCE based on 2015 average assets

Page 24: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

UK Regeneration case study: £1bn. MediaCity UK

Debt £277m

Equity £228m

LGIM(RA)

LGR

LGC

Other offices/hotels/Studios

etc. (£297.6m)

BBC asset (£162.4m)

Future Development land (inc. PRS)

(£43m)

LGIM (RA) LGR LGC

Actual/Potential

Revenues

TAR

GET

URBAN REGENERATION

INSURANCE & PENSION FUNDS

SCH

EME

SUM

MA

RY

Page 25: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

Clean Energy Case Study: £700m NTR Joint Venture

Debt c.€460m

(c.66% GBP)

Equity c.€250m

Incl NTR, LGC

+ 2 institutional Investors.

LGIM -> syndication opportunities

LGR up to €460m

LGR Right of First Look on all

debt part of deal

LGC €117m (47.5%)

On-Shore Wind

Assets

LGIM LGR LGC

Actual/Potential

Revenues

LGC €5m (25%)

TAR

GET

CLEAN ENERGY PENSION FUNDS

SCH

EME

SUM

MA

RY

Page 26: Legal & General Group Plc Mark Gregory 7th June 2016 Group ... · Projected future cashflow before backbook actions* Undiscounted 2015 Discounted 2015 LGR c.£10bn c.£5bn • £m

A world full of opportunities 2015-2025

GROWTH DRIVERS

AGEING

POPULATIONS

2025 AMBITION

GLOBALISATION

OF ASSET

MARKETS

CREATING REAL

ASSETS

WELFARE

REFORMS

DIGITAL •