lessons from iea work on - eu sustainable energy week...water demand in different iea energy...
TRANSCRIPT
© IEA 2019
Lessons from IEA work on
energy sector climate resilience
Andrew Prag, Head of Environment and Climate Change Unit
EU Sustainable Energy Week, 18 June 2019
IEA
3 © IEA 2019
Key messages
• Improving energy sector resilience is required even if climate mitigation goals are
met
• The energy sector and the climate challenge are dynamic:
- The low carbon energy transition changes the nature of resilience;
- Climate change affects the emissions reduction challenge
• Resilience-building should form part of an integrated approach to energy
transitions
- Exploit synergies, between mitigation and adaptation and with other development
objectives
- Longer-term thinking to avoid “maladaptation”
• Governments have a key role to play in enhancing energy sector resilience
4 © IEA 2019
The low-carbon energy transition affects the resilience challenge
• Low-carbon technologies have differing water needs:
- Solar PV and wind can reduce water needs;
- CCUS, nuclear, biofuels and concentrating solar power can exacerbate water stress
- Hydropower is vulnerable to water shortages; but serves as energy storage
• Increased electrification means further reliance
on transmission/distribution infrastructure…
• …but increasingly decentralised generation
can reduce risk of outages
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Climate impacts the emissions reduction challenge
• Rising temperatures increase demand
for cooling: raises (peak) electricity demand
• Droughts can cause a shift from hydro to fossil:
- In China, recently led to increased share of
coal in power mix;
- In Latin America, increased share of
domestic and imported gas
• Dry-cooling for thermal power is less efficient,
increasing emissions intensity
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Mapping future coal power plants under water constraints
Future coal-fired power generation sites will consider water as a factor
beyond coal transportation cost and electricity transmission cost to load centres
Installed coal-fired power generation capacity by cooling technology in China in 2040
Source: IEA (2015), World
Energy Outlook
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Resilience as part of an integrated approach to energy transition
• Synergies from tackling multiple development objectives: reduced water
withdrawals
Sustainable
Development
Scenario
change
climate Address
access energy
universal Achieve
Improve air
quality
8 © IEA 2019
Water demand in different IEA energy scenarios
Water withdrawals increase in a scenario focusing on low-carbon only,
but decrease in the integrated Sustainable Development Scenario
Global water requirements for the energy sector by scenario
Source: IEA (2018),
World Energy Outlook
100
200
300
400
New
Policies
Climate
only
Sustainable
Development
bcm
Withdrawal
Consumption
2016 2030
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• Synergies from tackling multiple development objectives: reduced water
withdrawals
• Energy efficiency : win-win for mitigation and adaptation
Resilience as part of an integrated approach to energy transition
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Global CO2 emissions from space cooling double by 2050 in the Baseline Scenario, while efficient ACs cut those emissions almost to 2016 levels in the Efficient Cooling Scenario, with cleaner power further reducing CO2 emissions.
Meeting cooling demand while reducing CO2 emissions
Source: IEA (2018), The Future of Cooling
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
2016 2050 BaselineScenario
Efficient ACs Decarbonisingpower
2050 EfficientCooling Scenario
MtCO2
Rest of world
Mexico
Middle East
United States
China
Indonesia
India
11 © IEA 2019
Resilience as part of an integrated approach to energy transition
• Synergies from tackling multiple development objectives: reduced water
withdrawals
• Energy efficiency : win-win for mitigation and resilience
• Energy storage: security and integrating renewables
• Distributed renewable generation: reducing outage risks and lowering fossil
imports
