levelized cost analysis of nuclear fuel cycle for light ... · calculation system developed at...

IAEA– 26–29 May 2015

Levelized Cost Analysis of Nuclear Fuel Cycle For Light Water Reactors

PRESENTED BY

Dr / Mohamed M. Abdel-RaoufHead of Nuclear Fuel Sector

Nuclear Power Plants Authority

Cairo, Egypt

INPRO Dialogue Forum on Cooperative Approaches to the Back end of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Dr ivers and Legal, Institutional

and Financial Implements

[email protected]

Contents

Introduction

Methodology

Basic Assumptions

Approach

Results and Discussions

Case study

Sensitivity Analysis

Conclusions

INPRO Dialogue Forum on Cooperative Approaches to the Back end of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Drivers and Legal, Institutional and Financial Implements , IAEA– 26–29 May 2015

Introduction

Nuclear Fuel Cycle can be defined as the series ofprocesses and operations required to manufacture nuclearfuel, its irradiation in nuclear power reactors and storage,reprocessing or disposal of the irradiated fuel.

Several nuclear fuel cycles may be considered, dependingon the type of reactor and the fuel used (reactorcharacteristics) and whether or not the irradiated fuel isreprocessed and the nuclear materials is recycled.


Nuclear Fuel Cycle

IntroductionINPRO Dialogue Forum on Cooperative Approaches to the Back end of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Drivers

and Legal, Institutional and Financial Implements , IAEA– 26–29 May 2015

IntroductionNuclear fuel cycle policies: Open cycle (once through): The nuclear fuel cycle

starts with the mining of uranium and ends with thedisposal of nuclear waste (the fuel passes through thereactor only once). This policy is definitely applied forPHWR and RBMK.

Closed cycle: Unburned fissile material from the spentfuel (fuel removed from a reactor, after it has reached theend of its useful life) can be recovered and then recycledto produce new fuel.

On hold (wait and see) cycle: The spent fuel is storedand the decision for either disposal or reprocessing isdelayed.


IntroductionFront End Uranium exploration, Ore Extraction and Processing

Refining and Conversion

Enrichment

Fuel Fabrication

Fuel Management

Back End Spent Fuel Management

Reprocessing

Nuclear Waste Management


The major ity of the wor ld’s nuclear electr icity production isbased on the once-through fuel cycle using enr iched uranium inlight water reactors (LWR).

Introduction


Introduction Nuclear fuel cycle cost calculations including the complete

nuclear fuel cycle beginning with the purchase of yellow cake,passing through the operation of conversion, enrichment,preparation, fabrication, in-core fuel burn-up, and ending withthe post irradiation fuel cycle operations were considered.

The presented work is one of the tools of an integratedcalculation system developed at Nuclear Power Plant Authority(NPPA) that play a main role in assessment and optimization ofnuclear fuel cycle.

The program "NFCA" is based on evaluation of nuclearmaterial requirements and cost analysis of fuel cycle operationsprior to the in-core fuel burn-up.


The present wor th technique is used to calculate

the levelized nuclear fuel costs, where the present

wor th of all revenues received from selling of the

generated electr icity are just equal to the present

wor th of all expenditure for the different nuclear

fuel cycle services.

Methodology


Input DataTechnical Data Installed power plant capacity, Plant thermal efficiency, Capacity factor of the power plant, Average discharge burnup, Number of core fuel batches, Cycle length, and Tails Assay, Losses ratios for the industrial fuel cycle

processes.

Economical Data Annual discount rate, Fuel cycle services prices, Escalation rates, Currency reference date, Discounting date, Lag and lead time periods for the fuel cycle

services with respect to the fuel charging date.

Calculating the fuel cycle services requirements: Yellow cake, Conversion, Enrichment, Fabrication.

Calculating the fuel cycle services Costs: Yellow cake, Conversion, Enrichment, Fabrication.

Calculating the present wor th of: The fuel cycle services Costs, Electric power generation.

Calculating the Levelized Nuclear Fuel Cycle Costs of electr ic Power Generation.

Methodology


Methodology

Input Data

Calculating the Fuel Cycle Services Requirements

Calculating the fuel cycle services Costs

Calculating the present worth of fuel cycle components cost

Economical Data

Technical Data

Calculating the Levelized Nuclear Fuel Cycle Costs of electric Power Generation


Basic Assumptions Average discharge burn-up of approximately in

the case study 60 GWd / MTIHM is used. Capacity factor of nuclear power plants is about

90%. Thermal efficiency is about 33% as for LWR

power plants. Enrichment of tails is assumed to be 0.25%. Number of batches is three for the fuel

management scheme.


Approach

Applying the mass balance equations for all the fuel cyclestages from ore mining till ir radiation in power reactor, thefuel cycle requirements can be estimated as a function of thenuclear power plant basic design parameters and lossesassociated with each individual fuel cycle process.

Mining and Milling

0.711% U235

Conversion U3O8 to UF6

Enrichment3-5 % U235

Spent Fuel Storage

(wet or dry)Geological

Repository

0.5% loss Tails0.2-0.3% U235

0.5% loss

Fuel Fabrication


Approach The mass of fuel loaded into the reactors per year (M), in

kilograms; is as follows:/M Q B=

Where:Q: The annual thermal energy output, in Megawatts day per year,B: The fuel burn-up, in (M Wd / MTIHM).

The annual thermal energy output (Q) is given by the following expression: ( )* *365 /e f thQ P C η=

Where:Pe: Installed power plant capacity (MWe),Cf : Capacity factor of the power plant,ηth: Plant thermal efficiency.

(1)

(2)

From equations (1) and (2):( ) ( )* *365 / *e f thM P C Bη= (3)


Approach The mass of natural uranium required for fuel production (Mf) is:

* P tf P

f t

X XM MX X

−=

−

Where:Mf : The mass of the natural uranium feed, kg U, MP : The mass of the produced enr iched uranium, kg U,Xf :The mass enr ichment of the natural uranium feed =0.711 % ,XP :The required mass enr ichment for the produced fuel,Xt :The tails mass assay.

(4)

The enr ichment produced fuel (XP) can be estimated as a function of the average discharge burn-up (B) and the number of fuel batches (n) using the following cor relation (valid for enr ichments up to 20% ):

21 10.41201 0.11508* * 0.00023937* *Pn nX B B

n n+ + = + +

(5)


Approach The levelized fuel cycle cost for a cer tain fuel batch is calculated as the

cost per unit energy at which present worth of the total fuel cycle servicescosts related to a cer tain reference. The levelized fuel cycle cost (Cfl) in $ /MWh is given by:

(6)

Where:d : discount rate,C (i) : direct expenditures for the ith component of the fuel cycle ($),T (i) : lead or lag time of the ith component expenditures related to the reference date,E (j) : electr icity generated by a designated fuel batch dur ing its ir radiation cycle of index j (MWh),T (j) : lag time of revenue of the generated electr icity related to the reference date dur ing the ir radiation cycle j.


Results and DiscussionsCase Study

Parameters Units Quantity Parameters Units Quantity

Plant Data Given DataReactor thermal power

MW t 3636 Fuel burnup MWd /MTIHM 60000

Capacity Factor % 90 Tails Assay U-235 % 0.25

Plant efficiency % 33 Feed Assay U-235 % 0.71

Lead/Lag time for operation Fabrication Losses

wt % 0.5

U purchase year 1.25 Pr ices

Conversion year 1 Feed Prices $/kg U3O8 114

Enrichment year 0.67Conversion Prices

$/kg U 6.5

Fabrication year 0.5 SWU Prices $/SWU 133


Results and discussionCase study

Parameters Units Quantity Parameters Units Quantity

Feed Requirements Ton U3O8 403.5 Enr ichment Cost M$ 37.9

Enr ichment Feed Ton U 340.5 Fabr ication Cost M$ 7.52

Enr ichment SWU 103 kg SWU 267.4Total Front End Product Cost M$ 99.96

Fabr ication Feed Ton U 30.47Total Front End Product Cost /kg U $/kg U 3347.62

Product Quantity Ton U 29.86Waste Management Cost M$ 21.74

Feed Cost M$ 52.11Total Nuclear Fuel Cycle Cost M$ 121.7

Conversion Cost M$ 2.43Total Nuclear Fuel Cycle Cost $/kg U 4075.68

Levelized Nuclear Fuel Cycle Cost = 9.212 $/MWh


Sensitivity AnalysisINPRO Dialogue Forum on Cooperative Approaches to the Back end of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Drivers

and Legal, Institutional and Financial Implements , IAEA– 26–29 May 2015

Sensitivity analysis



Uranium Feed

Fabrication

Enrichment

Conversion

Waste Management

Total levelized fuel cost


Conclusions The program "NFCA" is an integrated computer code package for

the nuclear fuel cycle cost and within operation confidence optimization.

The model is based on the levelized nuclear fuel cycle cost approach for an individual fuel batch.

The program output includes the material requirements of the nuclear fuel cycle, in addition to estimating the different fuel cycle components cost.

The structure of the present worth fuel cycle cost items is expressed in the output as the sum of direct and indirect costs. This structure of nuclear fuel cycle cost is useful in sensitivity analysis and assessment of different fuel cycle.

One of the useful applications of NFCA program is that it can be used in future as tools for the comparative assessment for once through and closed nuclear fuel cycle.


Conclusions A parametric study had been conducted to study the unit cost; per

megawatt hours for each component of the fuel cycle due to changes in economic parameters such as the prices of uranium purchase , conversion, enrichment and fabrication services prices, as well as discount rates.

In addition, the changes of the design parameters such as the burn-up, the enrichment percentage of the fuel and tails assay are considered.

The obtained results shows that the levelized cost of nuclear fuel for the generation of electricity according to the current prices for the nuclear fuel cycle services are ranging between 7 to 14 $ per MWh of electricity produced.


levelized cost analysis of nuclear fuel cycle for light ... · calculation system developed at...

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