leveraging urbanization in south asia · urbanization in pakistan • pakistan is the most...

Leveraging

Urbanization in

South Asia

1

Managing Spatial

Transformation for

Prosperity and Livability

Sohaib Athar

Urban Specialist, Pakistan

Social, Urban, Rural and

Resilience Global Practice

Urbanization in Pakistan

• Pakistan is the most urbanized

large country in South Asia

• Urban centers account for over

half of Pakistan’s GDP

• Urbanization provides an

opportunity to transform

economies and enhance both

prosperity and livability

• Vision 2025 of the Govt. of

Pakistan places a premium on

job growth in cities

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

% of Total Population Urban

Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects (2011)

Urbanization

City size and spatial structure

Agglomeration

economies

Productivity, skills,

jobs & innovation

Congestion

forces

Pressures on

infrastructure &

markets

Outcomes

Prosperity Livability

Governance

& Finance

Land &

Housing

Disaster

Resilience

Connectivity

& Planning

Framework for Harnessing Urbanization

• Officially, roughly 40 percent of Pakistanis live in urban settlements

• Agglomeration Index shows urban share at 56 percent (2010 results)

Considerable hidden urbanization

Source: World Bank staff based on Agglomeration Index (2010) and UN World Urbanization Prospects (2011)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Pakistan India Sri Lanka Bangladesh Nepal

% o

f T

ota

l P

op

ula

tio

n U

rb

an

Agglomeration Index United Nations

BGD

BTN

IND

LKA

NPL

PAK

68

10

12

ln G

DP

per

ca

pita

0 20 40 60

AFG

80 100Agglomeration index

South Asia Other

Pakistan is not leveraging agglomeration

properly for prosperity

Source: World Bank staff based on Agglomeration Index (2010), and World Bank World Development Indicators data

PAK

South Asian cities can improve livability

City Ranking

New Delhi

Mumbai

Kathmandu

Colombo

Karachi

Dhaka

110

115

125

127

135

139

Developing country averages

South Asia

All developing exc. South Asia

East Asia and Pacific

125

103

93

Source: EIU (2015), Data reused with permission of the

Economist Intelligence Unit

Urban Poverty Rates

Sindh and Punjab lead in urbanization and

cities’ share of GDP

Source: Based on Census 1998, UN World Urbanization Prospects

(2011) and estimations from Labor Force Survey data

% share of national GDP

GDP per capita,$ (2005, nominal)

Urban Rural Urban Rural

Punjab 35% 25.2% 744 715

Sindh 18% 10.5% 781 644

KP 1.5% 6.5% 394 471

Total 55.2% 44.8% 731 638

Source: Estimates based on World Development Indicators 2012,

Census of Manufacturing Industries 2005-06 and Labor Force Survey

2009-2011 data

Pakistan’s urban corridor intensifying around

key cities

Source: Based on analysis of DMSP night lights data

sss


Change in Light Intensity between 1999 and 2010

Annual GDP Growth Rate Estimates 1999 to 2010

• The Lahore agglomeration meets

Delhi’s equivalent, forming one

continuously lit belt of 67 cities with

an estimated population of 73.4

million

• This is slightly less than the

population of Turkey

Agglomeration formed despite lack

of regional integration

Crossing borders through urbanization

Multi-city agglomerations in Pakistan

• The formation of new

agglomerations was actually

outpaced by merging of

existing agglomerations

between 1999-2010

• The Lahore agglomeration

has expanded to absorb

those of Chiniot, Gujranwala,

Gujrat, Lalamusa and

Sialkot.

Source: Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), the Earth Institute at Columbia University

Urban Expansion in and around Lahore, 1999 to 2010

o Yellow and green areas: urban footprints in 1999

o Pink areas: urban footprint in 2010

Lahore’s most rapid growth is on the

periphery

Often these agglomerations and

urban expansions have detrimental

effects on the urban cores

Dimming cores, bright peripheries

indicate a move of population or

industry, particularly manufacturing,

to a city’s edges

Pakistan’s cities are growing outward

and not upward, increasing the

challenges for planning,

transportation and providing public

services

Changes in Light Intensity (1999 to 2010) in

Punjab’s major clusters and Sindh province


• Not only slums, but also sprawl

• Urban footprint (size of the built-up

area) in South Asia growing at 2x

rate of urban population growth

• In Punjab’s large cities, urban land

area expanded by 9.6% per annum

on average from 1999 to 2010

• Medium sized cities 4.3% per

annum

• Multan, Bahawalpur, Khanpur and

Rahim Yar Khan more than 10%

per annum

• These belts present an opportunity,

but will require better coordination

between different urban local

governments

Urbanization has been messy

Source: World Bank staff based on analysis of DMSP-OLS night lights data

Connectivity and market access drive growth

of spatial clusters

• Inter-city transportation links are

very good

• Growth is concentrated along

several clusterso Faisalabad-Lahore-Sialkot triangle

o Islamabad-Rawalpindi corridor

o Karachi-Hyderabad corridor

• Growth is driven by access to

markets, which is produced by

proximity and access to transport

infrastructure

High-tech manufacturing is concentrated

in several clusters

Number of Workers

• Most of Pakistan’s high-tech

jobs are concentrated in a

handful of cities: o Karachi in Sindh, and Lahore,

Sialkot, Gujranwala, and

Rawalpindi and Punjab

o 5 cities represent nearly 43%

of the nation’s total

employment in high-tech jobs

• Nearly 25% of employment

in high tech jobs are found in

what are defined as non-

urban areas in Punjabo Possible that these are

located in urban peripheries or

near major highwaysSource: Estimates from CMI data.

Some cities have high manufacturing jobs

Source: World Bank staff based on Labour Force Surveys 2008-2011

40 36 32 30 29 2518 17

6

3231

31 31 3235

3036

15

87 13

8 1310

1615

42

55 4

97

69

9

4

56 9

68

9 1110

10

108

87

87

12 8

19

16 1 8 3

94 3 1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sialkot Faisalabad Karachi Gujranwala Lahore Multan Peshawar Rawalpindi Islamabad

% o

f c

ity

em

plo

ym

en

t

Employment Shares in major cities, by sectors

Manufacturing Trading Public Admin Construction

Transport Health & Education Agriculture Finance

Slum shares exceed high poverty rates

Slums and informal settlements occupied not by only the urban poor,

but also middle income households

Cities face large scale housing needs

CountryUrban population

2010 (000)

Percent of

population living in

slums

Urban slum

population 2010

(000)

Lower-bound est.

housing backlog

2010 (000)

Afghanistan 7,300 88.6 6,468 898

Bangladesh 41,476 61.6 25,549 5,807

Bhutan 253 - - -

India 378,775 17.4 65,907 18,307

Maldives 126 - - -

Nepal 4,990 58.1 2,899 483

Pakistan 62,290 46.6 29,027 4,398

Sri Lanka 3,188 12.0 383 101

Sources: UN World Urbanization Prospects: 2011 Revision; UNESCAP 2012, 126; UN-HABITAT 2013, 126–28; and Office of the Registrar

General and Census Commissioner 2013. Note: – = not available. Data on proportion of urban population living in slums are for the most recently

available years, as follows: 2011 (India); 2009 (Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan); 2005 (Afghanistan and Sri Lanka).

Urbanization

City size and spatial structure

Agglomeration

economies

Productivity, skills,

jobs & innovation

Congestion

forces

Pressures on

infrastructure &

markets

Outcomes

Prosperity Livability

Governance

& Finance

Land &

Housing

Disaster

Resilience

Connectivity

& Planning

Recap: Framework for Harnessing

Urbanization

Empowermentdeficit

Limited, overlapping & fragmented functional

assignments with inappropriate/excessive

central/state/provincial control

Financial basis extremely weak: limited revenue

powers and inappropriately conceived/targeted

intergovernmental transfers

Despite elections & RTI, accountability mechanisms

are weak and underutilized

Resourcedeficit

Accountabilitydeficit

Removing 3 Deficits in Urban governance and

Finance

I N S I G H T S I N T O K A R A C H I ’ S U R B A N E C O N O M Y A N D L A N D S C A P E

Karachi: the megacity of Pakistan

Karachi is vital to Pakistan’s economy

COMPOSITION OF EMPLOYMENT IN KARACHI

Karachi makes a vital contribution to Pakistan’s economy: About 15% of national GDP

Almost 5.5% of domestic employment

GDP per capita 44% higher than nationally

City remains Pakistan’s manufacturing powerhouse

Strong GDP growth and employment generation

But weak productivity growth

Source: World Bank staff based on analysis of Labor Force Survey data

for 2008-2011,

2.8

32.3

31.1

12.9

8.9

7.63.8

0.6

Finance & real estate Manufacuring

Trading Public admin

Transport & comms Health & education

Construction Agriculture

Karachi’s economy is underperforming

given its potential

Karachi

Lahore

Hyderabad, Pakistan

Jakarta

Mumbai Shanghai

Ho Chi Minh City

BangkokCairo

Seoul

Singapore

Doha

Dubai

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

100 1,000 10,000 100,000

Rea

l G

DP

gro

wth

20

06

-20

12

GDP per capita 2006 ($)

750 world cities Karachi Direct comparators Aspirational comparators Best practice examples

Source:Oxford Economics Competitive Cities Database

Average of the largest 750 cities in the world

Karachi: slow economic growth in city core and more rapid

economic growth on periphery

Source: World Bank staff based on analysis of DMSP-OLS radiance-calibrated nighttime lights data

Pattern of night time lights growth between 1999 - 2010

1998

Karachi’s population has expanded rapidly as the

city has acted as a magnet for migrants

Source: World Bank Analysis based on 1998 Population Census and JICA 2010-2011 Karachi Household Survey

2010

Karachi: Job opportunities are mainly

clustered downtown


Density of Jobs in Karachi (2010), by Union Council

Karachi: Skilled workers live close to jobs

but unskilled live further away


Distribution of Skilled Workers by Residence (2010), by Union Council

Distribution of Unskilled Workers by Residence (2010), by Union Council

Karachi Land Use 2001

2013: Periphery Expansion

Expansion on periphery

“construction”remains

Karachi City expansion characterized by

development at the periphery

Land “under construction” in 2001 Land “under construction” in 2013

Source: World Bank staff analysis based on data from Government of Sindh Urban Policy Directorate & European Space Agency

Land within city core

Periphery growth with road grid

Ad-hoc periphery growth

“Leapfrog” outside city

Private 3.9% Recent Allocations 2.7%

Highly fragmented control of land in

Karachi – many agencies

Distribution of Land Ownership / Control in Karachi Division (% of 3,600 sqkm)

Federal

12.3%

Province

48.5%

Local

32.7%

Others

6.6%

DHA

5%

KirtharNational Park

21%

Karachi Metropolitan Corporation (KMC)

30.9%

Govt. of Sindh

17.7%LDA

5.6%

MD

A

3.9

%

Cooperati

ve

Housing

Societies

1.8%

KPT

2.8%

Cantt.

Boards

2.1%

GoP

0.5%Port

Qasim

1.5%

Railways

0.4%

SITE

0.6%

» Generally fragmented throughout city

» Large and small parcels

» Large tracks mostly within city core

» Large tracks inland and at periphery

Source: Karachi Strategic Development Plan 2020, City District Govt. Karachi

Moving towards prosperous and livable cities

• Pakistan’s policymakers

must focus on alleviating

both current and future

congestion pressures

• Strengthen urban

governance and finance

• Manage urban sprawl

and expansion

• Focus on city core

rejuvenation

Thank youFor more on this study, refer to the full report:

Leveraging Urbanization in South Asia:

Managing Spatial Transformation for Prosperity and Livability

Available at

www.worldbank.org/southasiacities

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