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Life Cycle Assessment for Policy: Opportunities and Challenges
April 1, 2019
Joule BergersonAssociate Professor
Chemical and Petroleum Engineering Canada Research Chair in Energy Technology Assessment
Outline of Topics for Discussion
What is LCA?
How LCA continues to evolve from
— informing policy
to
— informing R&D decisions
— enforcing policy
Challenges and opportunities associated with each type of use
What is LCA?
A decision making tool to identify environmental burdens and evaluate the environmental consequences of a product, process or service over its life cycle from cradle to grave.
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www.nist.gov
LCA continues to evolve…
Traditional Use— To inform policy
New Uses— To inform funding agencies and investors
— To enforce policy
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LCA continues to evolve…
Traditional Use— To inform policy
New Uses— To enforce policy
— To inform funding agencies and investors
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1969 Coca Cola 1st LCA
6https://www.coca-colacompany.com/sustainability
LCA continues to evolve…
Traditional Use
— To inform policy
New Uses— To enforce policy
— To inform funding agencies and investors
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California Low Carbon Fuel Standard
Oil sands hit major 'hurdle' in California
GLOBE AND MAIL – January 11, 2007
“While most new laws on cleaner-burning fuel look only at tailpipe emissions, the new California policy, announced this week by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, has an unusual twist. It will count gases discharged during the full life cycle of the petroleum.”
“Under the state’s so-called low-carbon fuel standard, all transportation fuel sold will have to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases emitted during its production and final use by at least 10 percent by 2020”
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https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/dashboard/dashboard.htm
A Declining Life Cycle Emissions Standard
LCA continues to evolve…
Traditional Use— To inform policy
New Uses— To enforce policy
— To inform funding agencies and investors
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US DOE Loan Guarantee Program
Comprehensive life cycle inventory to justify DOE credit enhancement
1. Material, chemical, energy and water inputs and emissions
2. Supplier manufacturing data (for each component in 1)e.g., electricity, natural gas, fuel oils, gasoline, coal, hydrogen
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Examples of LCA to inform policy
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Point and min/max LCA estimates
Oil Sands Examples
Industry-wide emissions variation
Upstream Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) emissions industry wide
Variability across existing projects
Upstream Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage emissions by project
Reservoir model to explain variation
16Source: Akbilgic, O. et al. Energy. 2015. Vol. 93 Part 2. pp. 1663 – 1670.
ANN model explains over 80% of variation in key emissions driver using 6 basic reservoir characteristics
Ultra-deep OilsTight Shale Oils
Oil Sands (Bitumens)
Extra-heavy Oils Oil Shale (Kerogen)Condensates
Natural Gas Liquids Heavy Oils
More Oil Substitutes
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Collaborators: Adam Brandt, StanfordJon Koomey, StanfordDeborah Gordon, CEIP
• Open source Tools
• First global petroleum emissions estimates
Variability/uncertainty at a global scale
Set a baseline of global emissions (upstream here, downstream coming)
Better decisions Demonstrate
progress toward climate targets
Prioritization of mitigation efforts
Development of assets
Masnadi et al. Science. 2018. Vol. 361. Iss. 6405.
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http://oci.carnegieendowment.org/
Evaluation of GHG Emissions Mitigation Opportunities
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http://oci.carnegieendowment.org/
Coke not burned
Evaluation of GHG Emissions Mitigation Opportunities
Evaluation of GHG Emissions Mitigation Opportunities
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http://oci.carnegieendowment.org/
Flaring stopped
Examples of LCA to enforce policy
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Significant Variability in Existing Projects
Upstream Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage emissions by project
US DOE Update to GHG emissions baseline for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel
• Well-to-wheels emissions for gasoline forecast to 2040
• Baseline needed in LC fuel standards
• Incorporation of uncertainty unacknowledged
Examples of LCA to inform R&D
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Concept/idea
Modelling / Lab Experiments
Pilot Testing
Field Trial
Technology Commercialization
Technology Development
Assessment L1
Assessment L2
Assessment L3
Assessment L4
Observation / Question
Hypothesis
Experiment
Research
Analysis
Scientific Breakthrough
Concept / Scientific Development
Basic mass and energy balances of process
Extend to supply chain, flag materials and hot spots, aid in ranking concepts
RT TACT
Reduced uncertainty on physical systems
Comprehensive Env’l and Econ assessment, Scenario analysis, Market potential, aid in R&D priorities
Resolution to outstanding uncertainties related to field characteristics
Scale-up both standard and LCA, Cumulative impacts, Risk assessment, Perception risks, Policy barriers
System performance at real scale
Env’l and Econ assessment, Competitiveness, Optimization
Identify key process components, estimate process performance and theoretical limits
Basic inputs/outputs, Identify potential applications, Identify performance benchmarks
RT TACT
Research Outcomes
TACT helps connect across scientific and technology projects, looking for opportunities and synergies throughout
Early Stage Technology Assessment
Propagation of Life Cycle Uncertainty
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
1,5
28
1,6
24
1,7
21
1,8
17
1,9
14
2,0
10
2,1
07
2,2
04
2,3
00
2,3
97
2,4
93
2,5
90
2,6
86
2,7
83
2,8
79
2,9
76
3,0
73
3,1
69
3,2
66
3,3
62
3,4
59
3,5
55
3,6
52
3,7
48
3,8
45
3,9
42
4,0
38
4,1
35
Re
lati
ve P
op
ula
tio
n D
en
sity
50 Year Cumulative CO2 Emissions (Mt CO2e)Scenario 1 - Base Case Scenario 2 - NGCCScenario 3 - NGCC with CCS Scenario 4 - SCPC with CCS
Source: Ceh, Doluweera, Bergerson, 2017.
Key Messages for Discussion
Opportunities
Fosters systems thinking improved decision-making
Identify potential unintended consequences
Ensure that the goals of innovation/discovery are achieved
Challenges
As use of LCA continues to evolve, the need for uncertainty techniques and communication strategies increases
A balance must be found between the increasing complexity of systems and the simplicity required for transparency and communication purposes
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