life cycle asset management system
TRANSCRIPT
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Aberdeen – May 30th, 2013
Using design data to reduce risks during
operations
By Dr. Bruno GERARD,
Founder and President OXAND group
Life Cycle Asset Management System
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Outline
1. Context and objectives
2. Methodology outline
3. Case study
4. Conclusions
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WHO IS OXAND ?
• INDEPENDENT INTERNATIONAL CONSULTANCY FIRM
SPECIALIZED IN ASSET, AGEING & RISK MANAGEMENT
• FOCUS ON LIFE CYCLE OPTIMISATION OF HIGH RISK CAPITAL
INTENSIVE ASSETS
Spin-off EDF in 2002
TRANSPORT (Railways, Ports…) ENERGY (Oil & Gas, Nuclear…)
•> £ 1000bn OF CAPEX CAPITALIZED IN SIMEOTM
• > 130 PERMANENT CONSULTANTS, > £ 15m
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OXAND Oil & Gas Business Line
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OXAND
Renewables
Managing Risks How high is the residual risk ?
Controlling Costs Capital (CAPEX)
Maintenance(OPEX)
Cost of risks
Optimising Asset Performance Availability (Kd), Safety
From design to
deconstruction
PASS 55 (ISO 55000), ISO 31000, ISO 15288
Proprietary Database
and Software SIMEO
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Asset Inventory
Maintenance policy
Historical data
strategy
Client’s data Deliverables
LIBRAIRIES
SIMEOTM SIMULATOR
ALGORITHMS
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Projects are getting more and more complex:
deeper wells, greater water depth, “extreme” operating
conditions
Requirements for greater analysis and
control of RISKS, intensive and better use of
Data
During the design phase, new projects must
integrate new solutions for life extension and
deconstruction
1. Context : a quick change in the approach of developing new assets
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1. Context : Minimize Technological Risks
Prospection /
construction
operations
RISKS
TIME
Gas leakage
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1. Context : Minimize Technological Risks during design
Prospection /
construction
operations
RISKS
TIME
Offer a long term vision for earlier decisions minimizing
life cycle risks
?
Main factor: initial
conditions at the start-
up of operations (as
built)
Balance between CAPEX / OPEX
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WHERE ARE THE MAIN TECHNOLOGICAL RISKS
Sub surface
Sub sea
Surface
facilities
•High number of
systems and
components
•Low uncertainties
•Easy access
•Low number of
systems and
components
•Medium level
uncertainties
•Costly access
•Low number of
systems and
components
•High uncertainties
•Very Costly access
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A full framework for optimising design of assets and
operations processes to maintain a high level of
performance :
Maximize availibility, safety
Minimize costs linked to unexpected events
A full framework for maintaining level of risks
acceptable during life cycle
Tools to support the framework and processes
OBJECTIVES
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Life time
extension
Risk-based integrity
review
Design Construction Operation P&A
Initial condition
evaluation « point
zero »
Periodic Risk-based
integrity review
Intervention
Optimisation Studies
Some Key studies to optimize long
term asset performance
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Global risk management process
QRA due date
or early update
required?
WI Quantitative
Risk Assessment
Scheduled review of
QRA & Well screening
Well classification by
severity potential
no
yes
Well classification
enabling graded approach and prioritization
Quantitative &
predictive decision support for Asset & Safety Management
Control of mitigation
plans & risk monitoring of the well
portfolio
BenefitsProcess
1. C
lassif
y A
ssets
2. A
ssess ris
ks
3. C
on
trol &
up
date
Minor Intermediate Major
Nu
mb
er
of
we
lls
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Overview of the Well Integrity QRA Methodology
Leak rate modelling
WI QRA
WI Management
System Risk identification
Risk identification
Risk estimation
Risk estimation and assessment
Risk evaluation and management
Qualitative assessment Support studies Quantitative assessment WI Management
System characterisation Identification of failure modes and causes Assessment of prevention/mitigation controls
Estimation of potential leakage rates Understanding of well behaviour Indication of potential threats to WI (corrosion...)
Quantification of risks (likelihood, severity) Ability to predict varying risk levels over time Results to cover various scenarios
Risk-informed decision-making Optimisation of operational procedures/practices Ensure ability to produce while managing risks
FMEA
Thermo-mecha analysis
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Methodology Workflow
Data collection
and analysis
Mesh and
boundaries
definitions
Scenarios:
base case +
sensitivity
Conclusions
and
recommendations
Section across 2 annuli
Overburden 1
Aquifer 1
Overburden 2
Overburden 3
Aquifer 2
Caprock
Reservoir
Cement logs
Drilling reports
Geological profiles
…
Data collection
Kzone_8
Kdeg
Portlanditedissolution
Kzone_7
Aggressiveagent concentration
Dynamic modeling
Risk mapping
(SSci, PSci)
Static modeling (T0)
Formations
Fluide des formations
CasingsGaines
Cavités_FC
Bouchons(F 1)
(F 3)
(F 4)
(F 2)
Risk =
Probability x SeverityK5*K4*K3
K5*K4
K3*K1
K1
K4*K3
K4
K3*K2
K2
K5*K1*K3*K2
K5*K1*K2
K5*K2
K5*K3*K2
K3
0,E+00 5,E-08 1,E-07 2,E-07 2,E-07 3,E-07
Relative influence
Consequence grid
CO2 leakage mass
(T0 + x years) for Scenario Sci
X
Failure scenarios selection
Recommandations
Probability for
Scenario i(S)Sci
(P)Sci
Concerns
Objectives
Key performance
indicators
Project context
Cement logs
Drilling reports
Geological profiles
…
Data collection
Kzone_8
Kdeg
Portlanditedissolution
Kzone_7
Aggressiveagent concentration
Kzone_7
Aggressiveagent concentration
Dynamic modeling
Risk mapping
(SSci, PSci)
Static modeling (T0)
Formations
Fluide des formations
CasingsGaines
Cavités_FC
Bouchons(F 1)
(F 3)
(F 4)
(F 2)
Formations
Fluide des formations
CasingsGaines
Cavités_FC
Bouchons(F 1)
(F 3)
(F 4)
(F 2)
Risk =
Probability x SeverityK5*K4*K3
K5*K4
K3*K1
K1
K4*K3
K4
K3*K2
K2
K5*K1*K3*K2
K5*K1*K2
K5*K2
K5*K3*K2
K3
0,E+00 5,E-08 1,E-07 2,E-07 2,E-07 3,E-07
Relative influence
K5*K4*K3
K5*K4
K3*K1
K1
K4*K3
K4
K3*K2
K2
K5*K1*K3*K2
K5*K1*K2
K5*K2
K5*K3*K2
K3
0,E+00 5,E-08 1,E-07 2,E-07 2,E-07 3,E-07
Relative influence
Consequence grid
CO2 leakage mass
(T0 + x years) for Scenario Sci
CO2 leakage mass
(T0 + x years) for Scenario Sci
X
Failure scenarios selection
Recommandations
Probability for
Scenario i(S)Sci
(P)Sci
Concerns
Objectives
Key performance
indicators
Project context
Iterative process
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Context:
• Offshore project
• Pre-FEED phase
Needs:
• Check if proposed cement will contribute to
avoid leakage into the geology or
atmosphere
• Propose recommendations regarding
cement properties
• Reassure project partners
• Demonstrate authorities efficiency of well
design
Business case Context and needs
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Providing a framework for :
• Understanding threats to well integrity
• Identifying component failure modes
• Characterising failure scenarios
• Quantifying likelihood of failure
• Assessing controls in place to prevent failure / mitigate consequences
Library of failure modes and causes:
• Industry & Oxand experience
• Expert opinion
• Industry research projects
Failure Modes and Effects Analysis Overview
Qualitative assessment
Risk identification
Qualitative Approach of QRA
© Oxand UK Ltd 2013
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Leaking Casing
Loss of leak tightness
Mechanical failure
Fatigue
Degradation of Joints
Reduced Mechanical Resistance
Corrosion
Degradation of Casing
Erosion
Degraded cement
Presence of H2S
Bacterial activity
Sulphide stress cracking
Acids and brines
Completion fluids
Geological Fluids
Different Grades of steel used
Velocity of fluids
Production of fine particles
Inappropriate flow coupling (missing)
Aggressive Fluids
Oxygen intrusion
Ineffective protection of casing
by cement
Galvanic corrosion
Presence of H2S
Corrosion
Erosion
Degraded cement
Bacterial activity
Acids and brines
Completion fluids
Geological Fluids
Different Grades of steel used
Velocity of fluids
Production of fine particles
Inappropriate flow coupling (missing)
Aggressive Fluids
Oxygen intrusion
Ineffective protection of casing
by cement
Galvanic corrosion
Presence of H2S
Thermo-mechanical
stresses
Variation in temperature
Variation in pressure
Geological stresses
Variation of lithostatic pressure
Well Status (In production or
Shut-in)
Variation of Geological fluids
pressure
Well Status (In production or
Shut-in)
Operational Actions
Geological Temperature
Seismic events
Subsidence / dilatation
Faults and fractures
Variation in temperature
Variation in pressure
Variation of lithostatic pressure
Well Status (In production or
Shut-in)
Variation of Geological fluids
pressure
Well Status (In production or
Shut-in)
Operational Actions
Geological Temperature
Sea Water 1, 3
Cathodic Action 1
Cathodic Action 1Electric Current in
seabed 1
Electric Current in seabed 1
Sea water 1, 3
In situ stresses 2
Geological fluids pressure 2
1. Only valid for Surface Casing2. Not valid for Surface Casing 3. Only valid for Mud Line Suspension
A.b
, A.c
, B.b
, C.a
, D
.c, E
.dA
.b, A
.c, B
.b, C
.a,
D.c
, E.d
A.b
, A.c
, B.b
, C.a
, D
.c, E
.d
A.b
, B.b
, C.a
, D.a
A.b
, B.b
, C.a
, D.a
A.b
, A.c
, B.b
, C.a
, D
.c, E
.d
A.b
, A.c
, B.b
, C.a
, D
.a, D
.c, E
.d
Presence of CO2
Presence of CO2
Hydrogen embrittlement
Immediate consequence
Failure causes / factors
Controls for prevention / mitigation
Failure mode
• Design criteria • Manufacturing/procurement specs • Installation practices • Operational procedures • Maintenance doctrines • Data gathering/analysis • Etc...
Qualitative assessment
Risk identification
Failure Modes and Effects Analysis Failure Mode Diagrams
SIMEOTM Well-Base Library
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Wellhead
Packer
Tubing (Inside)
Annulus 2Casing
Cement
Seal Seal Tubing Hanger
ValveValve Valve
X-mas Tree
Annulus Casing
CementAnnulus 3
Casing Cement
An
nu
lus
C
asin
g
Annulus 3
An
nu
lus
3 C
asin
g
Annulus 2
An
nu
lus
2 C
asin
g
Annulus 1 Casing
Cement
An
nu
lus
1 C
asin
g Annulus 1
Liner Cement
Tub
ing
Lin
er
Packer
SCSSV
Formation 1Gas Bearing
Formation 2
Formation 3
Formation 5Gas Bearing
Formation 6
Formation 6
ProductionAtmosphere
Sea Bed
Formation 4Gas Bearing
Perforations
Leakage Path
Source/Sink
Component
Qualitative assessment
Risk identification
Failure Modes and Effects Analysis Leakage Pathway Diagrams
Map of potential leakage pathways from source to sink (including atmosphere)
NOTE: Generic well and geology represented
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Failure Mode
Qualitative assessment
Risk identification
Failure Modes and Effects Analysis Leakage Pathway Diagrams
Combined with FMDs, provides overall picture of threats to well integrity
NOTE: Generic well and geology represented
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Supporting Studies Some examples
Support Studies
Risk identification & estimation
Thermo-mechanical modelling
• Indications of likelihood of failures
Leakage rate estimation
• Quantitative estimation of leakage rates
(indication of severity)
Calculations of annulus pressures and
inventories in reduced integrity
conditions V=cst
Vg(t1)
Vw(t1)
fwVw(t1)
fgVg(t1) Vg(t2)
Vw(t2)
mg(t1)
mg(t2) = mg(t1)+ Δmg
mw(t1)mw(t1)=mw(t2)
pt1 t2
© Oxand UK Ltd 2013
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Potential failure and leakage paths:
• Casing deformation
• Micro-annuli opening at interfaces
potential leakage
• Cement cracking
Parameters
• Properties of geology
• Evolution of cement properties over
time (aging)
• Initial casing thickness
• Orthotropy of geological stresses
• Evolution of P&T over time
Business case
P T
Short
shut-in
Long
shut-in
P&T profiles considered
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Quantification of risk:
• Scenarios are classified in
risk grids
Prediction of risk levels
over time:
• risk levels due to ageing
components/materials
Quantitative Risk Assessment Model Results
Initiating Event: A live
Ann. A valve unrestricted
flow
Production Casing Failure
Production Casing Seal
Failure
Annulus AET 1,1
Ann. B valve unrestricted
flow
Intermediate Casing Failure
Intermediate Casing Seal
Failure
Ann. C valve unrestricted
flow
Surface Casing Failure
Annulus D (Cemented)
Failure
Leak into A, Bleed off
Consequence
Leak from A to CC to atmosphere
Annulus B Annulus CAnn. B valve blocked, no
AMS
Ann. C valve blocked, no
AMS
Leak from A to C
Conductor Casing Failure
Annulus D
Leak from A to DD to atmosphere
Ann. A valve blocked, no
AMS
1,1,1
1,1,3
1,1,4
1,1,5
1,1,7
1,1,2
1,1,8
1,1,9
1,1,10
1,1,12
1,1,17
1,1,18
1,1,19
1,1,20
1,1,22
1,1,23
1,1,25
1,1,26
1,1,28
1,1,24
1,1,35
1,1,36
1,1,38
1,1,34
1,1,43
1,1,6
1,1,11
1,1,21
1,1,27
1,1,37
1,1,44
1,1,29
1,1,30
1,1,31
1,1,33
1,1,32
1,1,39
1,1,40
1,1,41
1,1,42
1,1,45
1,1,46
1,1,47
1,1,49
1,1,50
1,1,51
1,1,52
1,1,54
1,1,56
1,1,57
1,1,59
1,1,60
1,1,61
1,1,62
1,1,64
1,1,55
1,1,65
1,1,67
1,1,68
1,1,69
1,1,71
1,1,66
1,1,78
1,1,79
1,1,77
1,1,48
1,1,53
1,1,58
1,1,63
1,1,70
1,1,80
1,1,72
1,1,73
1,1,74
1,1,76
1,1,75
1,1,14
1,1,15
1,1,13
1,1,16
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to DD to atmosphere
Leak from A to C
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to CC to atmosphere
Leak from A to C
Leak from A to DD to atmosphere
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to DD to atmosphereLeak from A to BB to atmosphere
Leak from A to C
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to CC to atmosphere
Leak from A to B
Leak from A to C
Leak from A to DD to atmosphere
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to DD to atmosphere
Leak from A to C
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to CC to atmosphere
Leak from A to C
Leak from A to DD to atmosphere
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to DD to atmosphere
Leak from A to C
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to CC to atmosphere
Leak from A to B
Leak from A to C
Leak from A to DD to atmosphere
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to DD to atmosphere
Leak from A to C
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to CC to atmosphere
Leak from A to C
Leak from A to DD to atmosphere
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to DD to atmosphereLeak from A to BB to atmosphere
Leak from A to C
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to CC to atmosphere
Leak from A to B
Leak from A to C
Leak from A to DD to atmosphere
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to DD to atmosphere
Leak from A to C
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to CC to atmosphere
Leak from A to C
Leak from A to DD to atmosphere
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to DD to atmosphere
Leak from A to Atmosphere
Leak RateKg/s
Probability/year
Leak from A to C
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to D
Leak from A to B
Annulus A Live, A-Bleed off functioning
Result of Middle ingress leak rate at year 1
Quantitative Assessment
Risk estimation & assessment
© Oxand UK Ltd 2013
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A FULL RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FROM DESIGN TO END OF LIFE
SIMEOTM
3- Integrate Risk mitigation
actions in project planning
1 – Predictive Life Cycle Risk assessment
2 - Corrective actions
4 – Risk Informed Decision System
5- Control and quantifiy
Costs/Benefits
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A risk-informed decision approach provides benefits
for decision making at all stages of the lifecycle
Design
Determining optimum well design, component specs...
Operations
Developing operational risk management plans, maintenance strategies...
Abandonment
Planning abandonment to ensure safety, minimise disruption to production...
... when deployed as part of a successful overall risk management
process
Conclusions
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Thank you